How much does defense really matter?? An OOTP experiment!

[Jason Moyer]

Originally posted by Aadik
Jason Moyer did a wonderful study regarding OOTP 4- what he did was set up a 2 team league, and start them all exactly equal (all C's across the board- all hitters identical ratings, and so forth). Then, he adjusted one position every time- so a SS went from a C to a B, and he simmed 10 seasons to see the average increase- I think he ended up simming 90 seasons and found out that at SS, the difference between an E and an A was about 5-6 games or more. He did this for every position- as expected 1b had the least impact, RF was somewhat important, as was 3b. If he's around the boards, he can probably explain it better.

Thanks for the kind words. Amazingly I totally forgot about this, as I had initially intended to do it for OOTP5 but got caught up testing player development curves (Markus has significantly improved this area of the game, which might not be noticable unless you think back to how weak OOTP3/4 tended to be in this area).

Here's a link to the original thread. I'll try and set aside some time to run some similar tests. Hopefully I can find the league I used for this and just convert it to OOTP5 in order to save the time of creating 50 players who are exactly the same.

<a href="http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/board/showthread.php?s=&threadid=2297">Study 1 - What is clutch worth in OOTP4?</a>

<a href="http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/board/showthread.php?s=&threadid=2310">Study 2 - Defense vs Hitting</a>

I apologize I haven't taken the time to do more of these. When OOTP6 is released I'll try and have a few articles ready to go.

Jason

[Crapshoot]

Originally posted by Jason Moyer
Thanks for the kind words. Amazingly I totally forgot about this, as I had initially intended to do it for OOTP5 but got caught up testing player development curves (Markus has significantly improved this area of the game, which might not be noticable unless you think back to how weak OOTP3/4 tended to be in this area).

Here's a link to the original thread. I'll try and set aside some time to run some similar tests. Hopefully I can find the league I used for this and just convert it to OOTP5 in order to save the time of creating 50 players who are exactly the same.

<a href="http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/board/showthread.php?s=&threadid=2297">Study 1 - What is clutch worth in OOTP4?</a>

<a href="http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/board/showthread.php?s=&threadid=2310">Study 2 - Defense vs Hitting</a>

I apologize I haven't taken the time to do more of these. When OOTP6 is released I'll try and have a few articles ready to go.

Jason

I agree that at this point, its probably worth waiting for 6- when I have some time, I would love to try a couple of experiments to see what happens. Also, don't thank me- that thread was the single most informative thread that I have read about OOTP here which didn't come with the name "Markus Heinson"

[Spoon86]

Does anyone else get a lot of "maybe a fielder with more range would have made that play" for 3B with A range? I've never studied it, but it seems like that happens for at least 10% of grounders near third (when my 3B has an A range); it usually happens a few times a game.

[sporr]

Originally posted by Spoon86
Does anyone else get a lot of "maybe a fielder with more range would have made that play" for 3B with A range? I've never studied it, but it seems like that happens for at least 10% of grounders near third (when my 3B has an A range); it usually happens a few times a game.

Maybe your 3B is an A- instead of an A+

[William4192]

Great Thread!

[Eugene Church]

Originally posted by Spoon86
Does anyone else get a lot of "maybe a fielder with more range would have made that play" for 3B with A range? I've never studied it, but it seems like that happens for at least 10% of grounders near third (when my 3B has an A range); it usually happens a few times a game.

I have noticed this at other infield positions, too.
It seems strange for an A Range player to get that comment.
Only B and below should ever get that comment.

[Vajracchedika]

These are probably cases where the game makes a range check to resolve the play, but the defensive player fails. There obviously have to be a lot of instances when even an 'A' range player can't get to the ball. If this is reflected in the variables used to determine a play result, then a range of the variables might constitute a failed range check, and the game might generally use the "fielder with more range" section of the play-by-play.

If this is the case, however, it calls into question the use of the play-by-play to assess the impact of defense. Suddenly, a lot of those hits that seem to go through because of poor range might simply be routine range checks that didn't turn out in the defender's favor.

[dickbaveta]

I agree that defense matters a great deal in and out of this game, but I am just compelled to say that there is no way in hell that Mike Piazza, or any catcher's, defense costs the Mets 40 runs a year.

The Mets gave up 642 runs this year, or 3.99 per game. So we are saying that Piazza cost the mets 10 full shutouts over the season. Just not possible.

[Vajracchedika]

Well, I don't see how Piazza, who played less than 70 games last year, could have cost the team 40 runs, especially at the catcher position, where he throws out a reasonable number of baserunners.

But there is no need to consider the proposed numbers in terms of shutouts. Think of it this way. If Piazza's defense cost the Mets as many as 40 runs during the season, then he would be responsible for roughly 6% of the runs scored against his team. 40 runs might seem a bit high, but that only means that, once every four games, Piazza's defense costs his team a run. Once every four games doesn't seem that far-fetched, at least for really poor defenders, but I just don't see it for a catcher.

[dickbaveta]

Well, I would have to disagree in that I think costing a team a run every 4 games is quite a bit far fetched.

Look at it in this context: I cannot name a single action a catcher (or pretty much anyone else) can make defensively which costs his team a full run in a game. You have to assign "blame" to everything. Player A boots a grounder with 2 outs, and the runner scores when the next hitter homers. Is Player A fully culpable here, or does the pitcher who gave up the homer to the next batter get some of the blame? I think the answer is obvious. The issue even works with range issues...if a CF doesn't get to a ball that the average CF does, he still can't be saddled with the full blame for any run that scores there...

Another issue I would have is who does he cost the team 40 runs a year over? Replacement level? League Average? or the best catcher in the league? Too many generalities...

[Tib]

Re: Piazza: It was a general example, guys.

I have no evidence to back it up. I was only trying to illustrate a point. Besides, if you had seen Piazza play for the Dodgers, you might agree with me that one run every four games was not unreasonable. But just for fun:

I could argue that, if an average catcher's arm would allow an average number of runners to get to second, then Piazza's poor throwing arm (and it is a poor throwing arm) allowed an above average number of runners to get into scoring position (more players taking extra bases, more players attempting steal against him, etc.). The greater number of runners in scoring position, the greater the number of runs scored against. One run every four games might be high, but one extra run per week is 26 runs right there. Believe me, if Piazza didn't allow 40 runs a season, it sure felt like it.

I'm not doubting Piazza's desire or effort, just his performance.

[ChuckB]

As Mets fans, we should just be lucky that most teams -- for some unknown reason -- don't take advantage of his arm like the Marlins do. They run on him at will, frustrating the pitchers to no end and disrupting their games.

I love what Piazza has meant to the Mets, and my sons absolutely idolize the guy, but personally he'd look better in an Orioles uniform next season if he really believes that he's better off behind the plate. Yes, he gives himself up behind the dish very well, calls a decent game (though strangely never for Benitez -- fastball fastball fastball homerun), and is a trooper, but I'd rather have Vance Wilson batting 8th, hitting .210 and throwing out 40% of the baserunners than have Piazza hitting 4th, hitting 30 HRs, driving in 95, and throwing out 14.5%.

[Vajracchedika]

I cannot name a single action a catcher (or pretty much anyone else) can make defensively which costs his team a full run in a game.

Ever hear of unearned runs? Bases loaded, two outs. Routine grounder to third, third baseman blows the throw to first. Two runs score. Next better ends the inning. That's two runs right there that are solely to blame on the third baseman, unless we want to put part of the blame on the pitcher. But baseball considers the two runs to be solely the fault of the third baseman, and hence they are considered unearned.

[ChuckB]

Catchers interference (which lets a runner to first). A passed ball on the third strike (which also lets a runner to first). Any number of passed balls during the game (some of which are due to the pitchers actions, but others are clearly the catchers fault).

And that's just as the pitch is reaching the plate.

Throwing the ball into centerfield, allowing a runner who would have had second to now also have third. Throwing the ball down the first base line on a bunt, which now allows the runner on first to go to third (and depending on the outfield alignment and that runner's speed, to score) and allowing the batter to get to second (when he was sacrificing himself).

Not blocking the plate; Jorge Posada is one guy I can point out that doesn't block the plate all that well, so runners tend to get by him more easily (in this area Piazza excels, however).

And how about the things that we don't see? Calling the game, for example. Yes, a veteran pitcher like Curt Schilling probably calls 90% of his pitches, but what about a young pitcher like AJ Burnett? If a catcher calls a particularly bad game (poor pitch selection, poor placement -- calling for the outside fastball when the batter excels at going to the opposite field would be an example) then he's costing his team not one run, but multiple runs. Piazza is supposedly pretty good at this also, though his judgement always seemed to be in question when Benitez took the mound.

The catcher is an integral part of the game, if for nothing else than the ball is thrown to him every pitch. My son is a catcher, I'm his coach, so I've witnessed these things first hand.

[dickbaveta]

Yes, but unearned runs are stupid, because there are very few instances where the pitcher doesn't deserve some of the blame. Sure, an inning might get extended a batter because of an error, but the pitcher is the one who allowed the next guy to hit the ball 450 feet. I would argue the pitcher deserves more of the blame in that case.

As for the CI, passed ball examples...those are situations in which a catcher allowed a batter to reach first through his fault. It won't be his doing if the batter/runner circles the bases as the inning continues though, the lion's share of that is on the man standing on the mound. Sure, it wouldn't be an earned run, but if we are going to try and say player X costs his team X runs a year, the blame needs to be apportioned amongst teammates...throw the ER/UER rule out the window.

And frankly, anybody who would rather have Vance Wilson over Piazza in that scenario is nuts. Last year (I can't find easy team/individual numbers) the NL had 1294 steals in 1879 attempts, a 68% success rate. The average team had 118 attempts. Lets assume for arguments sake that the Mets had 118 steals attempted against them...well, the difference between Piazza or Wilson based on the situation given is 30 steals a year. Or about 6 runs according to version 3403.12 b of the RC formula. Sure, the pitchers lose some focus in those situations, but even if you triple that number, Piazza's bat still outweighs Wilson's by far more than 20 runs.

Now, if the Mets had a even league average alternative that would be another thing...for the record, last year Piazza in his 270 PAs finished 23.4 runs above replacement, good for 4th among NL catchers. Wilson? 1.2 runs above in 290 PAs, which puts Piazza a full 40 runs ahead with the bat in a full season.

[Henry]

Originally posted by dickbaveta
Yes, but unearned runs are stupid, because there are very few instances where the pitcher doesn't deserve some of the blame. Sure, an inning might get extended a batter because of an error, but the pitcher is the one who allowed the next guy to hit the ball 450 feet. I would argue the pitcher deserves more of the blame in that case.

As for the CI, passed ball examples...those are situations in which a catcher allowed a batter to reach first through his fault. It won't be his doing if the batter/runner circles the bases as the inning continues though, the lion's share of that is on the man standing on the mound. Sure, it wouldn't be an earned run, but if we are going to try and say player X costs his team X runs a year, the blame needs to be apportioned amongst teammates...throw the ER/UER rule out the window.

And frankly, anybody who would rather have Vance Wilson over Piazza in that scenario is nuts. Last year (I can't find easy team/individual numbers) the NL had 1294 steals in 1879 attempts, a 68% success rate. The average team had 118 attempts. Lets assume for arguments sake that the Mets had 118 steals attempted against them...well, the difference between Piazza or Wilson based on the situation given is 30 steals a year. Or about 6 runs according to version 3403.12 b of the RC formula. Sure, the pitchers lose some focus in those situations, but even if you triple that number, Piazza's bat still outweighs Wilson's by far more than 20 runs.

Now, if the Mets had a even league average alternative that would be another thing...for the record, last year Piazza in his 270 PAs finished 23.4 runs above replacement, good for 4th among NL catchers. Wilson? 1.2 runs above in 290 PAs, which puts Piazza a full 40 runs ahead with the bat in a full season.

Obviously, the position your taking is 180 degrees away from the concepts and ideas from which MLB rules were based.

An error IS, in fact, NOT the pitchers fault... period. There is no way you can convince anyone otherwise. The fielders have a responsibility too - the pitcher can't field - nor is he responsible for - what happens on the field around him.

The pitcher is responsible for keeping the ball in the park - and if at all possible - keeping it near his fielders. Once the ball reaches the fielder, it's the fielder's responsibility to get the out - and if he errors, then the responsibility is on him - not the pitcher. Same goes for catcher errors.

I find it hard to believe you've taken a position contrary to baseball rules... unearned runs are not stupid - they are necessary to place responsibility where it belongs.

Henry

[ChuckB]

Originally posted by dickbaveta
And frankly, anybody who would rather have Vance Wilson over Piazza in that scenario is nuts. Last year (I can't find easy team/individual numbers) the NL had 1294 steals in 1879 attempts, a 68% success rate. The average team had 118 attempts. Lets assume for arguments sake that the Mets had 118 steals attempted against them...well, the difference between Piazza or Wilson based on the situation given is 30 steals a year. Or about 6 runs according to version 3403.12 b of the RC formula. Sure, the pitchers lose some focus in those situations, but even if you triple that number, Piazza's bat still outweighs Wilson's by far more than 20 runs.

Now, if the Mets had a even league average alternative that would be another thing...for the record, last year Piazza in his 270 PAs finished 23.4 runs above replacement, good for 4th among NL catchers. Wilson? 1.2 runs above in 290 PAs, which puts Piazza a full 40 runs ahead with the bat in a full season.

You can make numbers say just about anything you like. If you really believe that having Vance Wilson behind the plate isn't a better defensive situation than having Mike Piazza there, then you're not watching or reading about baseball. Sure, Piazza might create more runs, but we're not talking about taking him out of the lineup altogether; we're just putting him at first base as an example. (My comment about him looking better in an Orioles uniform stems from the fact that Mike really doesn't want to play first, but still thinks of himself as a better catcher).

You can tell me that the difference was six runs in their respective playing time last year, but as a viewer of most Met's games (and the rest I listen to on the radio) I don't buy it. I've seen the damage it causes, and the havoc it wreaks on the pitchers themselves. I would hazard a guess to say that the Mets had their best success on the mound last season while Piazza was out of the lineup (Wilson or Phillips behind the plate). I recall Jae Seo pitching better and Leiter finishing the season stronger than he started it. I recall Glavine pitching better (except against the Braves). Why? In part because fewer runners attempted to steal on Wilson than on Piazza. In his career, I'm guessing he's thrown out nearly 40% of the runners attempting to steal against him. Piazza's number is probably 20%. That's twice as many.

To me, and again this is nothing but personal opinion, but one I've used when coaching my entire life (up through Babe Ruth age baseball), defense and pitching wins games. Defense and pitching wins championships. It's great that Piazza is such an outstanding hitter, and when the rest of your middle defense is strong and your pitching is strong, his weaknesses aren't so glaring. But the 2004 incarnation of the NY Mets are not going to be strong defensively most likely (unless they sign Luis Castillo and Reyes comes back strong from his ankle injury, and they find a decent centerfielder) and the pitching staff is going to get a year older, so his inability to throw out runners will be underlined again. Maybe other Met's fans disagree, and that's their right, but Piazza's attitude about playing first has really made it clear that he wants to catch. And the Mets really could use a better defensive catcher than Mike.

Besides, his production has fallen off so dramatically...is it possible that all those years being an All-Star catcher has taken its toll on his body? Maybe the years of .330/35/110 are over, only to be replaced with .280/25/90. Now for a catcher those are respectable numbers, but add into the fact that he's not a good defensive catcher and now injury-prone...and I dont know many real Mets fans that wouldn't agree that maybe his best years are behind him and on a rebuilding team, his talents would be wasted.

[dsvitak]

Anyone who would willingly play Piazza as a catcher needs to have his head examined.

Doing a little math...if the average team has 118 steal attempts, and against the Mets lets add a worst-case 50% more....177.

He throws out 15%, say 25.

A terrific catcher throws out 40%, or 70 or so.

Fine, you gain another 45 bases, if Piazza plays every pitch.

45 bases is 11 runs, about 2 losses.

If he plays every pitch.

His offense is still better than anyone else the Mets can put back there.

Of course, this is the same Mets team that put guys at number 1 and 2 in the order with a 30% OBP.

GODDAM, that must have cost them some runs!

If you are a Mets fan, THAT is the central question, and their biggest weakness....not a single player scored more than 73 runs for them last year. That sucks.

Of course, I am a Cardinals fan, so it didn't suck too hard!

Just for grins, I went on the baseball-reference.com site, and looked up their TEAM OBP.

Drumroll please,...... .314!

Until they get some guys that get on base, having Piazza, Pujols, Jesus Himself back behind the plate ain't gonna win them many more games.

[jmaness84]

Originally posted by ChuckB
As Mets fans, we should just be lucky that most teams -- for some unknown reason -- don't take advantage of his arm like the Marlins do. They run on him at will, frustrating the pitchers to no end and disrupting their games.

I love what Piazza has meant to the Mets, and my sons absolutely idolize the guy, but personally he'd look better in an Orioles uniform next season if he really believes that he's better off behind the plate. Yes, he gives himself up behind the dish very well, calls a decent game (though strangely never for Benitez -- fastball fastball fastball homerun), and is a trooper, but I'd rather have Vance Wilson batting 8th, hitting .210 and throwing out 40% of the baserunners than have Piazza hitting 4th, hitting 30 HRs, driving in 95, and throwing out 14.5%.

The Marlins ran on everybody. They had Pierre, Castillo, Lee, Pudge, Encarnacion i believe. Even Lowell could run! They just had a field day when Piazza was catching

[Skipaway]

By Linear Weight:

With 150 SB and 74 CS, Florida's running games probably worth 5 runs for the season. Lots of show, very little substance.

For Piazza's whole career, he allowed 1186 SB and 388 CS. That's a little less than 100 runs for about 10 years of catching. League average catcher is about 3~4 runs a year.