Htters counts, Pitcher counts

Jasper70 · 08-21-2023, 01:45 PM

I have a lot of questions so thanks for those of you that answer them.
In OOTP, do hitter counts change the probability of a positive result?
"Its a process, its a process".
"When you are getting your pitch you are crushing the ball"

1-0
2-0
2-1
3-1
It is spring training and I'm forcing hitters to be patient by making them take the first pitch, especially against big arms with poor control.

For those of you that do PbP, do you notice whether the count matters in an at bat?

Quotes from Moneyball

md40022 · 08-21-2023, 01:53 PM

I brought up that I felt hitters swung away (and made weak contact) far too often with 3-0 counts in the past and the response was that the count doesn't really make a difference in the probabilities. It's more or less just a cosmetic thing. To your point, your hitter is no more likely to crush the ball on a 3-1 count than he is on an 0-2 count.

That said, the strategy of taking pitches does serve some purpose as it will work the opposing pitcher's pitch count

MathBandit · 08-21-2023, 02:56 PM

From what I understand, the game doesn't actually work on Pitch-by-Pitch and does it all in One Pitch mode. The only thing gained by telling your players to take a pitch is potentially artificially-inflating the pitchcount of the opposing pitcher in a way it shouldn't, as well as potentially generating more walks than you deserve, with no downside or risk.

When Joey Bagodonuts comes up to bat against Johnny Throwsalot, the game rolls and determines that this PA will end in a groundout to 2B on a 2-1 count. If you are playing in 1-pitch mode, that's the result of the PA. If you are playing in PbP mode then the game will generate pitches/results to get to that point. However if you tell the batter to keep taking pitches, you might end up with a walk or a groundout on a 2-2, 3-1, or 3-2 count instead because you forced the game to keep generating pitches beyond what it was supposed to.

Brad K · 08-21-2023, 04:10 PM

If a human can change the results by playing with the pitch count then the ability of the game to create realistic statistics is gone. It may not matter to fictional players but for people using real players it does.

There are several features already in the game not applicable to historical games (and I sure hope they don't work on historical games) so maybe its time to acknowledge the split and give some options to fictional players but not historical ones, especially those that already don't work on historical games.

snepp · 08-21-2023, 05:04 PM

I've seen a couple people mention it on a few occasions that they will avoid abusing the pitch-by-pitch mode for that very reason, only selecting certain options when they "make sense" vs gaming the system.

MathBandit · 08-21-2023, 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

If a human can change the results by playing with the pitch count then the ability of the game to create realistic statistics is gone

So because the human has the ability to remove the stickers on a rubik's cube and re-arrange them, that means the ability for a rubik's cube to act as a fun puzzle is gone?

Players who are interested in an accurate simulation that is 'fair' can have that by not going out of their way to exploit the game engine in order to achieve favourable results. Players who want their team to get an extra edge by taking shortcuts in a single-player game can also have that by exploiting the game engine. I don't see the issue here.

Brad K · 08-21-2023, 07:09 PM

The people who do that will then say the players aren't performing realistically. Not having that feature in historical games is a way of increasing customer satisfaction. Customers usually aren't fond of being told the malfunction is a PIC problem (Person In Chair).

MathBandit · 08-21-2023, 07:13 PM

So you think customers will prefer to have a longtime feature of OOTP (PbP option) stripped from historical play all of a sudden, than be told that if you take off the stickers and solve the puzzle that way you're just cheating yourself?

Brad K · 08-21-2023, 09:07 PM

No. Its fine as it is because it doesn't do anything except wear out pitchers. What I oppose is it doing more than that.

s1murc1 · 08-22-2023, 11:31 PM

So what everybody is saying is, This is a GM game never are you actually in full manager control. in real life managers will sometimes stop a player from swinging on a 3-0 count if that is gaming the system then this game is not a true management game.

Also how is taking pitches as a batter gaming the system but intentionally walking a guy is not? are you not taking whatever the game had planned for that at bat and turning it into a walk? I dont do PBP so i dont have a dog in this fight but that i fail to understand everyones point on.

Lastly infield shifts, if you use a infield shift is it for show? or do you actually get a opportunity to take a hit away? And if that is so are you not gaming the system by your guys definition

point of the matter if someone is interested in managing their game and using strategy to do so the game should be able to accomadate that especially when there is a manager mode. i may be missing a bug in the system or something along those lines but its not computing with my very simple little brain.

Brad K · 08-23-2023, 12:36 AM

There's a battle of desires here, often within the same person, of wanting the outcomes to be realistic but being able to change outcomes.

Brad K · 08-23-2023, 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by s1murc1

point of the matter if someone is interested in managing their game and using strategy to do so the game should be able to accomadate that especially when there is a manager mode. i may be missing a bug in the system or something along those lines but its not computing with my very simple little brain.

I think what you propose is fine with fictional players.

A lot of people are convinced that things they do while managing improves their outcomes. If it makes them happy to think that then cool. The devs won't say and proving it by testing isn't possible because the noise exceeds the signal.

md40022 · 08-23-2023, 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by s1murc1

So what everybody is saying is, This is a GM game never are you actually in full manager control. in real life managers will sometimes stop a player from swinging on a 3-0 count if that is gaming the system then this game is not a true management game.

Also how is taking pitches as a batter gaming the system but intentionally walking a guy is not? are you not taking whatever the game had planned for that at bat and turning it into a walk? I dont do PBP so i dont have a dog in this fight but that i fail to understand everyones point on.

Lastly infield shifts, if you use a infield shift is it for show? or do you actually get a opportunity to take a hit away? And if that is so are you not gaming the system by your guys definition

point of the matter if someone is interested in managing their game and using strategy to do so the game should be able to accomadate that especially when there is a manager mode. i may be missing a bug in the system or something along those lines but its not computing with my very simple little brain.

The first part of Brad's post above mine is a very short summary of the feeling here lol.

I've only been a consistent poster on this board for maybe the last year or so. So I've missed a lot of conversation regarding the intricacies of the game from many years ago. That said, I did make posts in the past about "why is my #9 hitter popping out to 2nd base on a 3-0 count when IRL a 9 hitter should either be taking that pitch or lining an over the plate "get me over" fastball into a gap," From there, I learned that the count is more or less cosmetic.

The best that I could say here, without trying to ruffle any feathers, is all-in-all this remains the best simulation game by a bleeping mile and the good does outweigh the bad by far. And tweaking certain things might satisfy some, but upset others. So it becomes a fine line. All in all, the developers here are more active in listening to concerns than anywhere else and if you prefer a simulation over a button-mashing game this remains the best out there, again by far. It's not perfect, but tell me what game is.

Brad K · 08-23-2023, 12:57 AM

Or to take a thought from Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance "Quality is what I like."

Brad K · 08-23-2023, 01:04 AM

I'd say the purpose of the count is so pitchers get tired when they are supposed to.

md40022 · 08-23-2023, 01:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

I'd say the purpose of the count is so pitchers get tired when they are supposed to.

Valid, but that could be more tailored to real life too though. Instead of a 3-0 pop up on the infield, make it a 1-2 or 2-1 pop up. Same number of pitches thrown, same outcome, just less of a "WTF".

Matt Arnold · 08-23-2023, 03:18 AM

Guys in real life pop out to the infield on 3-0 counts too. Their eyes get big, but they end up under the ball.

If you actually look through, the amount of the time someone swings at a 3-0 count does vary with their talent level. It might still happen, but you will see some guys swing more than others. It's not purely random.

MathBandit · 08-23-2023, 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by s1murc1

Also how is taking pitches as a batter gaming the system but intentionally walking a guy is not? are you not taking whatever the game had planned for that at bat and turning it into a walk? I dont do PBP so i dont have a dog in this fight but that i fail to understand everyones point on.

Because an Intentional Walk has risk. You take a guy, and turn whatever the result was (probably an out) into a walk.
Taking a pitch in PbP has no risk or possible downside. If you tell every batter to take pitches until they get to 2 strikes in every single PA, in real life your team would be striking out a ton by getting themselves into 2-strike counts. In OOTP your team would strike out less and make less in-play outs too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by s1murc1

Lastly infield shifts, if you use a infield shift is it for show? or do you actually get a opportunity to take a hit away? And if that is so are you not gaming the system by your guys definition

Of course a shift affects the outcome. You seem to be confusing "using strategy" with "abusing the game engine."

OutS|der · 08-23-2023, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

If a human can change the results by playing with the pitch count then the ability of the game to create realistic statistics is gone. It may not matter to fictional players but for people using real players it does.

There are several features already in the game not applicable to historical games (and I sure hope they don't work on historical games) so maybe its time to acknowledge the split and give some options to fictional players but not historical ones, especially those that already don't work on historical games.

A historical game is just a fictional game started in the past. Not sure why people keep getting hung up as if there are two versions of the game.
There are settings to make it play out close to RL but its still the same game.

md40022 · 08-23-2023, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Guys in real life pop out to the infield on 3-0 counts too. Their eyes get big, but they end up under the ball.

Not with the frequency that they do with OOTP. If the count is in-fact just purely cosmetic and to work pitch counts, which I believe was established last year, then situational hitting relative to the count is void.

Yeah, guys do pop it up on 3-0 counts IRL too. Of course. But if we looked at batting average and OBP by count IRL and compared it to OOTP there would be insane differences.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-hitters...-in-3-0-counts

https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/05/wh...hitters-count/

But again, being that it's been established that the count doesn't really matter in OOTP, none of this is surprising.... So yes, while guys *do* pop up on the infield on 3-0 IRL too, the frequency of that IRL is not even close.

08-21-2023, 01:45 PM	#1
Jasper70 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2023 Posts: 159	Htters counts, Pitcher counts I have a lot of questions so thanks for those of you that answer them. In OOTP, do hitter counts change the probability of a positive result? "Its a process, its a process". "When you are getting your pitch you are crushing the ball" 1-0 2-0 2-1 3-1 It is spring training and I'm forcing hitters to be patient by making them take the first pitch, especially against big arms with poor control. For those of you that do PbP, do you notice whether the count matters in an at bat? Quotes from Moneyball

08-21-2023, 01:53 PM	#2
md40022 All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 740 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	I brought up that I felt hitters swung away (and made weak contact) far too often with 3-0 counts in the past and the response was that the count doesn't really make a difference in the probabilities. It's more or less just a cosmetic thing. To your point, your hitter is no more likely to crush the ball on a 3-1 count than he is on an 0-2 count. That said, the strategy of taking pitches does serve some purpose as it will work the opposing pitcher's pitch count

08-21-2023, 02:56 PM	#3
MathBandit All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 1,445	From what I understand, the game doesn't actually work on Pitch-by-Pitch and does it all in One Pitch mode. The only thing gained by telling your players to take a pitch is potentially artificially-inflating the pitchcount of the opposing pitcher in a way it shouldn't, as well as potentially generating more walks than you deserve, with no downside or risk. When Joey Bagodonuts comes up to bat against Johnny Throwsalot, the game rolls and determines that this PA will end in a groundout to 2B on a 2-1 count. If you are playing in 1-pitch mode, that's the result of the PA. If you are playing in PbP mode then the game will generate pitches/results to get to that point. However if you tell the batter to keep taking pitches, you might end up with a walk or a groundout on a 2-2, 3-1, or 3-2 count instead because you forced the game to keep generating pitches beyond what it was supposed to.

08-21-2023, 04:10 PM	#4
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	If a human can change the results by playing with the pitch count then the ability of the game to create realistic statistics is gone. It may not matter to fictional players but for people using real players it does. There are several features already in the game not applicable to historical games (and I sure hope they don't work on historical games) so maybe its time to acknowledge the split and give some options to fictional players but not historical ones, especially those that already don't work on historical games.

08-21-2023, 05:04 PM	#5
snepp All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,485	I've seen a couple people mention it on a few occasions that they will avoid abusing the pitch-by-pitch mode for that very reason, only selecting certain options when they "make sense" vs gaming the system.

08-21-2023, 07:09 PM	#7
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	The people who do that will then say the players aren't performing realistically. Not having that feature in historical games is a way of increasing customer satisfaction. Customers usually aren't fond of being told the malfunction is a PIC problem (Person In Chair).

08-21-2023, 07:13 PM	#8
MathBandit All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 1,445	So you think customers will prefer to have a longtime feature of OOTP (PbP option) stripped from historical play all of a sudden, than be told that if you take off the stickers and solve the puzzle that way you're just cheating yourself?

08-21-2023, 09:07 PM	#9
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	No. Its fine as it is because it doesn't do anything except wear out pitchers. What I oppose is it doing more than that.

08-22-2023, 11:31 PM	#10
s1murc1 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2022 Posts: 35	So what everybody is saying is, This is a GM game never are you actually in full manager control. in real life managers will sometimes stop a player from swinging on a 3-0 count if that is gaming the system then this game is not a true management game. Also how is taking pitches as a batter gaming the system but intentionally walking a guy is not? are you not taking whatever the game had planned for that at bat and turning it into a walk? I dont do PBP so i dont have a dog in this fight but that i fail to understand everyones point on. Lastly infield shifts, if you use a infield shift is it for show? or do you actually get a opportunity to take a hit away? And if that is so are you not gaming the system by your guys definition point of the matter if someone is interested in managing their game and using strategy to do so the game should be able to accomadate that especially when there is a manager mode. i may be missing a bug in the system or something along those lines but its not computing with my very simple little brain.

08-23-2023, 12:36 AM	#11
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	There's a battle of desires here, often within the same person, of wanting the outcomes to be realistic but being able to change outcomes.

08-23-2023, 12:57 AM	#14
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	Or to take a thought from Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance "Quality is what I like."

08-23-2023, 01:04 AM	#15
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	I'd say the purpose of the count is so pitchers get tired when they are supposed to.

08-23-2023, 03:18 AM	#17
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 15,847	Guys in real life pop out to the infield on 3-0 counts too. Their eyes get big, but they end up under the ball. If you actually look through, the amount of the time someone swings at a 3-0 count does vary with their talent level. It might still happen, but you will see some guys swing more than others. It's not purely random.