Rookie Pitchers out of HS

BGDisBatman · 08-09-2023, 11:39 PM

I've been playing OOTP for about 5 years now, and the one thing I've never had success with is developing high-potential pitchers I draft out of high school. I always start them in the Arizona Complex League right after the draft and they ALWAYS get shelled. Then their potential tanks and they rarely make it up to A-Ball - I need to keep them in the Arizona Complex League because of their stats and because their overall rating (relative to A-Ball) stays considerably low.

What am I doing wrong?

kidd_05_u2 · 08-10-2023, 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BGDisBatman

I've been playing OOTP for about 5 years now, and the one thing I've never had success with is developing high-potential pitchers I draft out of high school. I always start them in the Arizona Complex League right after the draft and they ALWAYS get shelled. Then their potential tanks and they rarely make it up to A-Ball - I need to keep them in the Arizona Complex League because of their stats and because their overall rating (relative to A-Ball) stays considerably low.

What am I doing wrong?

Some comments

1- High school pitchers have the biggest bust % of the types of players you could draft, so expect to fail often when drafting them.

2- Pitchers take longer to develop than batters. Most high school pitcher draftees don't get to A-ball until they turn 20. In OOTP, they may take even longer because average ages in the minors are higher than in real life.

3- When drafting, make sure that the current ratings of the player are not terribly low.

4- Check what kinds of players the other teams are sending out. It is possible that the AI is populating their rookie level with older players.

5- If your scout heavily favors tools, he is probably overrating the potential of several players.

6- If you are drafting high and see a high schooler with 70-80 potential and really low bonus demand, be skeptical.

md40022 · 08-10-2023, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BGDisBatman

I've been playing OOTP for about 5 years now, and the one thing I've never had success with is developing high-potential pitchers I draft out of high school. I always start them in the Arizona Complex League right after the draft and they ALWAYS get shelled. Then their potential tanks and they rarely make it up to A-Ball - I need to keep them in the Arizona Complex League because of their stats and because their overall rating (relative to A-Ball) stays considerably low.

What am I doing wrong?

I have a very, very high flop-rate with HS pitchers as well. Almost to the point that I avoid them with my early round picks, or at least always lean towards college pitchers or any type of hitter when I have multiple players in consideration for a given pick in the early rounds.

To Kidd's point though, HS pitchers do flop fairly often and do take a long time to develop. So many mediocre relief pitchers or "AAAA" pitchers you end up realizing were top level HS prospects that just fizzled out.

I don't think you're doing anything wrong, just find a highly rated scout whose attributes align with the way you like to draft, make sure your minor league coaches favor prospects and can teach pitching and keep rolling the dice.

snepp · 08-10-2023, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md40022

I have a very, very high flop-rate with HS pitchers as well. Almost to the point that I avoid them with my early round picks, or at least always lean towards college pitchers or any type of hitter when I have multiple players in consideration for a given pick in the early rounds.

To Kidd's point though, HS pitchers do flop fairly often and do take a long time to develop. So many mediocre relief pitchers or "AAAA" pitchers you end up realizing were top level HS prospects that just fizzled out.

I don't think you're doing anything wrong, just find a highly rated scout whose attributes align with the way you like to draft, make sure your minor league coaches favor prospects and can teach pitching and keep rolling the dice.

Basically everything you just said, that's where I'm at. I'll throw the occasional dart at "the next big thing" if they are clearly BPA, but I'll take a college pitcher or HS batter instead more often than not.

SkoCubs · 08-11-2023, 12:09 PM

I don't think you're doing anything wrong. As others have said, HS Pitchers have a much higher chance of being busts than college pitchers.

Typically I don't like to take HS Pitchers in the first ~5 rounds unless they're an absolute no brainer can't miss prospect.

However in my opinion, High School pitchers do have a much higher chance to learn new traits and see the 'positive' side of TCR. So I would probably prefer a 40 POT high school pitcher over a 40 POT College pitcher

snepp · 08-11-2023, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkoCubs

However in my opinion, High School pitchers do have a much higher chance to learn new traits and see the 'positive' side of TCR. So I would probably prefer a 40 POT high school pitcher over a 40 POT College pitcher

I agree with this. I like to throw a couple mid-round darts at HS pitchers that have a couple decent abilities and a glaring weakness somewhere, then pray for a breakthrough in that weakness.

NoOne · 08-11-2023, 08:48 PM

ratings of an 18 year old are way less accurate than those of older prospects. 3/4ths are false positives. just making that up, but vast majority are trash prospects under-the-hood. this is realistic to probability of drafting such players in real life. it's easy to model such things with good data.

So, a good chunk of the time, they never had the talent you saw.

stats help resolve the picture, but always place to MiL level by ratings. any short term statistics can't be trusted too much. underperforming is normal. it happens even when they are developing fast. Worry about stats in the MLB with a suitable sample size and a consistent talent level for a long enough period that the stats are representative of reality.

absolute haplessness being a separate issue. Age matters a small bit, too. If very young for a particular tier, i'll be more sensitive to bad stats than normal. but, must be beyond "bad"

draft young when you have a fairly young mlb team and have the luxury of waiting up to 5-7 years before you might need that player. it may make sense with current contracts of your rotation etc etc.. 360-degree considerations to be made.

NoOne · 08-11-2023, 08:51 PM

when you look at war per round or anything sort of analysis that tries to show the likely talent and dropoff of talent as teh draft goes... it's precipitous.. even 1-5 is a 50/50 proposition and you don't see many HS pitchers going 1-5 in modern times.

and, that "50/50" for the first 5-10 picks is a fairly low bar relative to what people might perceive on average... not talking 50/50 hall of famer.. just 50/50 a bit better than a regular. the median is a low bar.

Daniel_09 · 08-12-2023, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

when you look at war per round or anything sort of analysis that tries to show the likely talent and dropoff of talent as teh draft goes... it's precipitous.. even 1-5 is a 50/50 proposition and you don't see many HS pitchers going 1-5 in modern times.

and, that "50/50" for the first 5-10 picks is a fairly low bar relative to what people might perceive on average... not talking 50/50 hall of famer.. just 50/50 a bit better than a regular. the median is a low bar.

Totally true, if you want to see what a lottery it is to pick players coming from HS in the first picks just check the 2014 draft, considered by many analysts one of the worst in history, with the 2013 draft as well.

billyray1984 · 08-17-2023, 12:06 PM

High school players as a whole in OOTP are generated with an abyssmal floor and pitchers are worse than hitters.

It's important if you draft HS players early to make sure that they have a semblance of floor (30+ or even better 35+) on at least contact/power for hitters or control/stuff with at least 3 decently developped pitches (40+). Any HS player that doesn't have that is basically a lottery ticket and less valuable than a lower ceiling college player.

Age also plays a factor since a guy with no floor who is 19 is bound to flop even if his potential is sky high. I take HS hitters early all the time in the draft if they are young, have already developped somehwta and have standout skills (defense/speed, great potentila bat, etc.). HS pitchers almost never before at least the third round since the AI teams will snatch up any developped HS pitchers very early and I tend to always pick very late.

One thing that I've found that helps somewhat for pitchers in rokie ball is to manage their strategy and limit their pitches to 50 and put their hook at the quickest. This way, even if they get shelled, they get pulled quickly and don't end up giving out 9 ER in 4 IP every start with a 2.5 WHIP.

Age and service time restrictions are also necessary in rookie ball and maybe A-ball since the AI loves to play AAAA guys in rookie ball.

Pelican · 08-17-2023, 03:18 PM

Agree with the above, which is why I prefer to draft pitchers especially and hitters too with at least some college experience. Plus, they are closer to being MLB ready than an 18-year-old. It’s asking a lot of a scout to project an 18-year-old playing in high school (potentially against guys like me, when I played in high school, not destined for professional baseball) against uneven opposition, relatively few games even counting Babe Ruth and summer leagues. At least you can look at pitcher or batter stats for a guy in the SEC and figure that was against consistently good opposition at the (low) Class A level of the minors.

If I am tempted to fall into the trap of wasting a pick on a high school guy, I really try to avoid pitchers with great Stuff but lacking Movement and Control. Those types will likely either [a] throw out their arm, [b] eventually face guys who can turn on a 95 MPH heater, or [c] never harness their control enough to throw pitches where they want - or all three!

A similar thing to avoid with high school hitters would be those sluggers who have huge power but little contact or sense of the strike zone. Remember that the big hitters in high school will have lots of walks, not due to a fine eye, but because guys like me are afraid to pitch to them. If they can’t make consistent contact in high school, they are unlikely to improve as they face better opposition. Sure, they will always have the power, but launch angle and escape velocity are irrelevant, if you can’t hit the ball squarely.

So, OOTP is just being realistic about high school guys. Draft them at your own risk, as IRL. There will be plenty of studs who go on to college, at least junior college. It’s a myth that all of the real talent gets picked off after high school. Plenty of guys are late bloomers or develop later or still today are overlooked. Not every star is on a travel team or at an academy or a top Summer league. I’ll take a guy at 50% confidence in his outcome and two or three years away, versus a guy with 10% confidence and five or six years out. There will be exceptions, but I’d have to be convinced.

md40022 · 08-17-2023, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelican

A similar thing to avoid with high school hitters would be those sluggers who have huge power but little contact or sense of the strike zone. Remember that the big hitters in high school will have lots of walks, not due to a fine eye, but because guys like me are afraid to pitch to them. If they can’t make consistent contact in high school, they are unlikely to improve as they face better opposition. Sure, they will always have the power, but launch angle and escape velocity are irrelevant, if you can’t hit the ball squarely.

Great point about low contact, high power high-school guys. They are facing a lot of pitching that will never play beyond high school. Guys with fastballs in the mid 70s and breaking stuff that either doesn't break or can't be controlled.... If they are striking out at a high rate against that stuff, it doesn't bode well for a professional career.

Daniel_09 · 08-17-2023, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelican

Agree with the above, which is why I prefer to draft pitchers especially and hitters too with at least some college experience. Plus, they are closer to being MLB ready than an 18-year-old. It’s asking a lot of a scout to project an 18-year-old playing in high school (potentially against guys like me, when I played in high school, not destined for professional baseball) against uneven opposition, relatively few games even counting Babe Ruth and summer leagues. At least you can look at pitcher or batter stats for a guy in the SEC and figure that was against consistently good opposition at the (low) Class A level of the minors.

If I am tempted to fall into the trap of wasting a pick on a high school guy, I really try to avoid pitchers with great Stuff but lacking Movement and Control. Those types will likely either [a] throw out their arm, [b] eventually face guys who can turn on a 95 MPH heater, or [c] never harness their control enough to throw pitches where they want - or all three!

A similar thing to avoid with high school hitters would be those sluggers who have huge power but little contact or sense of the strike zone. Remember that the big hitters in high school will have lots of walks, not due to a fine eye, but because guys like me are afraid to pitch to them. If they can’t make consistent contact in high school, they are unlikely to improve as they face better opposition. Sure, they will always have the power, but launch angle and escape velocity are irrelevant, if you can’t hit the ball squarely.

So, OOTP is just being realistic about high school guys. Draft them at your own risk, as IRL. There will be plenty of studs who go on to college, at least junior college. It’s a myth that all of the real talent gets picked off after high school. Plenty of guys are late bloomers or develop later or still today are overlooked. Not every star is on a travel team or at an academy or a top Summer league. I’ll take a guy at 50% confidence in his outcome and two or three years away, versus a guy with 10% confidence and five or six years out. There will be exceptions, but I’d have to be convinced.

In effect as they have said it is like IRL. the vast majority of HS players have a very low floor and a high ceiling.

Something that OOTP (at least in this version) has not been able to correct is that it takes several years in Rookie League for a HS player to be able to play in A, it takes between 3 and 4 years to become an average player for A, and that in many of my simulations I accelerate the development of hitters and pitchers.

This includes prospects, I will always try to pick players in the draft that have a higher floor, as many times HS players end up being 20/20/20/20/20.

Daniel_09 · 08-17-2023, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daniel_09

In effect as they have said it is like IRL. the vast majority of HS players have a very low floor and a high ceiling.

Something that OOTP (at least in this version) has not been able to correct is that it takes several years in Rookie League for a HS player to be able to play in A, it takes between 3 and 4 years to become an average player for A, and that in many of my simulations I accelerate the development of hitters and pitchers.

This includes prospects, I will always try to pick players in the draft that have a higher floor, as many times HS players end up being 20/20/20/20/20.

just to complement the previous comment to promote players in the minors I use relative ratings to... to see their capabilities at that level, At the overall level I do not let a player be at a minor league level below 35 or 40 (overall rating), when it is not so, I review each of their ratings to see if they can really play at that level.

What happens with HS players is that their ratings (hitter or pitcher) stay between 20 and 30 for a long time, and then they turn 20 years old and there if the TCR decides if the ratings go up, maintain or go down.

smallball1 · 09-18-2023, 06:32 PM

forgive me im new to this game, when you look at a players rating are they worth it if all his ratings are below 50 on a 1-100 scale....would you overlook this player? can a players potential jump up higher if he is in the minors? any help you can give me i would appreciate it. thanka

08-09-2023, 11:39 PM	#1
BGDisBatman Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 27	Rookie Pitchers out of HS I've been playing OOTP for about 5 years now, and the one thing I've never had success with is developing high-potential pitchers I draft out of high school. I always start them in the Arizona Complex League right after the draft and they ALWAYS get shelled. Then their potential tanks and they rarely make it up to A-Ball - I need to keep them in the Arizona Complex League because of their stats and because their overall rating (relative to A-Ball) stays considerably low. What am I doing wrong?

08-17-2023, 03:18 PM	#11
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 3,299	Agree with the above, which is why I prefer to draft pitchers especially and hitters too with at least some college experience. Plus, they are closer to being MLB ready than an 18-year-old. It’s asking a lot of a scout to project an 18-year-old playing in high school (potentially against guys like me, when I played in high school, not destined for professional baseball) against uneven opposition, relatively few games even counting Babe Ruth and summer leagues. At least you can look at pitcher or batter stats for a guy in the SEC and figure that was against consistently good opposition at the (low) Class A level of the minors. If I am tempted to fall into the trap of wasting a pick on a high school guy, I really try to avoid pitchers with great Stuff but lacking Movement and Control. Those types will likely either [a] throw out their arm, [b] eventually face guys who can turn on a 95 MPH heater, or [c] never harness their control enough to throw pitches where they want - or all three! A similar thing to avoid with high school hitters would be those sluggers who have huge power but little contact or sense of the strike zone. Remember that the big hitters in high school will have lots of walks, not due to a fine eye, but because guys like me are afraid to pitch to them. If they can’t make consistent contact in high school, they are unlikely to improve as they face better opposition. Sure, they will always have the power, but launch angle and escape velocity are irrelevant, if you can’t hit the ball squarely. So, OOTP is just being realistic about high school guys. Draft them at your own risk, as IRL. There will be plenty of studs who go on to college, at least junior college. It’s a myth that all of the real talent gets picked off after high school. Plenty of guys are late bloomers or develop later or still today are overlooked. Not every star is on a travel team or at an academy or a top Summer league. I’ll take a guy at 50% confidence in his outcome and two or three years away, versus a guy with 10% confidence and five or six years out. There will be exceptions, but I’d have to be convinced. __________________ Pelican OOTP 2020-? ”Hard to believe, Harry.”

09-18-2023, 06:32 PM	#15
smallball1 Bat Boy Join Date: Sep 2023 Posts: 2	potential forgive me im new to this game, when you look at a players rating are they worth it if all his ratings are below 50 on a 1-100 scale....would you overlook this player? can a players potential jump up higher if he is in the minors? any help you can give me i would appreciate it. thanka

08-11-2023, 12:09 PM	#5
SkoCubs Minors (Single A) Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 53	I don't think you're doing anything wrong. As others have said, HS Pitchers have a much higher chance of being busts than college pitchers. Typically I don't like to take HS Pitchers in the first ~5 rounds unless they're an absolute no brainer can't miss prospect. However in my opinion, High School pitchers do have a much higher chance to learn new traits and see the 'positive' side of TCR. So I would probably prefer a 40 POT high school pitcher over a 40 POT College pitcher

08-11-2023, 08:48 PM	#7
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	ratings of an 18 year old are way less accurate than those of older prospects. 3/4ths are false positives. just making that up, but vast majority are trash prospects under-the-hood. this is realistic to probability of drafting such players in real life. it's easy to model such things with good data. So, a good chunk of the time, they never had the talent you saw. stats help resolve the picture, but always place to MiL level by ratings. any short term statistics can't be trusted too much. underperforming is normal. it happens even when they are developing fast. Worry about stats in the MLB with a suitable sample size and a consistent talent level for a long enough period that the stats are representative of reality. absolute haplessness being a separate issue. Age matters a small bit, too. If very young for a particular tier, i'll be more sensitive to bad stats than normal. but, must be beyond "bad" draft young when you have a fairly young mlb team and have the luxury of waiting up to 5-7 years before you might need that player. it may make sense with current contracts of your rotation etc etc.. 360-degree considerations to be made.

08-11-2023, 08:51 PM	#8
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	when you look at war per round or anything sort of analysis that tries to show the likely talent and dropoff of talent as teh draft goes... it's precipitous.. even 1-5 is a 50/50 proposition and you don't see many HS pitchers going 1-5 in modern times. and, that "50/50" for the first 5-10 picks is a fairly low bar relative to what people might perceive on average... not talking 50/50 hall of famer.. just 50/50 a bit better than a regular. the median is a low bar.

08-17-2023, 12:06 PM	#10
billyray1984 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jun 2021 Posts: 218	High school players as a whole in OOTP are generated with an abyssmal floor and pitchers are worse than hitters. It's important if you draft HS players early to make sure that they have a semblance of floor (30+ or even better 35+) on at least contact/power for hitters or control/stuff with at least 3 decently developped pitches (40+). Any HS player that doesn't have that is basically a lottery ticket and less valuable than a lower ceiling college player. Age also plays a factor since a guy with no floor who is 19 is bound to flop even if his potential is sky high. I take HS hitters early all the time in the draft if they are young, have already developped somehwta and have standout skills (defense/speed, great potentila bat, etc.). HS pitchers almost never before at least the third round since the AI teams will snatch up any developped HS pitchers very early and I tend to always pick very late. One thing that I've found that helps somewhat for pitchers in rokie ball is to manage their strategy and limit their pitches to 50 and put their hook at the quickest. This way, even if they get shelled, they get pulled quickly and don't end up giving out 9 ER in 4 IP every start with a 2.5 WHIP. Age and service time restrictions are also necessary in rookie ball and maybe A-ball since the AI loves to play AAAA guys in rookie ball.