Steal Home

Jordan · 08-10-2023, 11:48 PM

Anecdotally, when do you choose to do it it in game? How successful do you think you are? What are the ratings for your most successful players to do so? Least successful?

Haven't found a thread specifically on this

jpeters1734 · 08-11-2023, 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jordan

Anecdotally, when do you choose to do it it in game? How successful do you think you are? What are the ratings for your most successful players to do so? Least successful?

Haven't found a thread specifically on this

lol I honestly have no idea and have wondered this myself. I would imagine the pitcher would need an extremely low hold rating and the runner would need a very high steal rating. I've never attempted it, because no runner is ever directed to steal home. It's just an instinct

Along those lines, I don't like the way the steal controls are. you have to choose to either attempt to steal or swing the bat. you can't do both.

Sweed · 08-11-2023, 09:33 AM

I think I've tried it twice in all of my years playing. Both times were games where two or three times previously I'd have a runner on third with less than two outs and not get them in. K, popup, shallow flyball, direct hit to IF playing in etc. Not being happy with my batters that day I thought that trying to steal home might actually give me a better chance. I was wrong.

My sample size is only two, and the result is 0 for 2. Take if for what it's worth.

md40022 · 08-11-2023, 11:14 AM

if I ever stole home it was a one time thing as a test early in the OOTP series. Stealing home is not even in my thought process at any point when managing an OOTP game.

I will squeeze and suicide squeeze from time to time when I have the right personnel at-bat and on 3rd base.... and I have a respectable amount of success with that, but a straight steal of home is never in the cards for me. Success rate is just far too low considering any sort of base hit, wild pitch or passed ball is bringing that guy home. Not to mention plenty of ground outs and flyouts will score that run too with less than 2 outs. Adding all of those percentages up just seems to reallllllyyyyy outweight the success rate of stealing home.

jpeters1734 · 08-11-2023, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md40022

if I ever stole home it was a one time thing as a test early in the OOTP series. Stealing home is not even in my thought process at any point when managing an OOTP game.

I will squeeze and suicide squeeze from time to time when I have the right personnel at-bat and on 3rd base.... and I have a respectable amount of success with that, but a straight steal of home is never in the cards for me. Success rate is just far too low considering any sort of base hit, wild pitch or passed ball is bringing that guy home. Not to mention plenty of ground outs and flyouts will score that run too with less than 2 outs. Adding all of those percentages up just seems to reallllllyyyyy outweight the success rate of stealing home.

Absolutely! I know it happens in real life but it just boggles my mind how it's even possible

Jordan · 08-11-2023, 04:33 PM

Am I crazy for thinking it succeeds more irl than in the game? I've been seeing a lot of double steals of 2nd/home having success in MLB.

I very rarely even try it either for the reasons mentioned above. The thought came to mind playing a Reds save, and giving it a shot in a secure game scoreboard-wise with Elly De La Cruz. It didn't work.

md40022 · 08-11-2023, 05:03 PM

I quickly googled it and it looks like the IRL success rate stealing home over the last 50 years is 27%. That's higher than I would have guessed. Still though, if the batter at the plate at the time is a .250 hitter (25%) and then you factor in wild pitches, passed balls, and if less than 2 outs ground outs and fly outs that would score the run, and that would seem to outweigh that 27% success rate. Hence why the idea of it never crosses my mind.

I really couldn't tell you how the success rate in the game compares to IRL simply because I have no game data. I suppose you could give it some tests and come up with some data. The one thing I would say though is it's really only ever attempted IRL when you either have THAT DUDE as the runner on 3rd or if there is something at play like a left handed pitcher going from the wind up with the slowest delivery ever and the 3rd baseman playing 20 feet off the bag at the same time....... you really can't factor that into testing with OOTP.

Sweed · 08-11-2023, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md40022

I quickly googled it and it looks like the IRL success rate stealing home over the last 50 years is 27%. That's higher than I would have guessed. Still though, if the batter at the plate at the time is a .250 hitter (25%) and then you factor in wild pitches, passed balls, and if less than 2 outs ground outs and fly outs that would score the run, and that would seem to outweigh that 27% success rate. Hence why the idea of it never crosses my mind.

I really couldn't tell you how the success rate in the game compares to IRL simply because I have no game data. I suppose you could give it some tests and come up with some data. The one thing I would say though is it's really only ever attempted IRL when you either have THAT DUDE as the runner on 3rd or if there is something at play like a left handed pitcher going from the wind up with the slowest delivery ever and the 3rd baseman playing 20 feet off the bag at the same time....... you really can't factor that into testing with OOTP.

I'm guessing they didn't break down that 27% between the double steal and the lone runner?

md40022 · 08-13-2023, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweed

I'm guessing they didn't break down that 27% between the double steal and the lone runner?

Honestly, I don't know. Stealing home is such a non-consideration for me that my "research" here was literally typing in "stealing home success rate" and going with the first concrete number that I saw from a reputable site. In this case, FanGraphs was where I pulled this from...... Did not read any of the qualifications for the stat though, primarily because I don't care about it lol

Sweed · 08-13-2023, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md40022

Honestly, I don't know. Stealing home is such a non-consideration for me that my "research" here was literally typing in "stealing home success rate" and going with the first concrete number that I saw from a reputable site. In this case, FanGraphs was where I pulled this from...... Did not read any of the qualifications for the stat though, primarily because I don't care about it lol

I agree on the return for the time to get the answer, ie it's not worth the effort.

Thanks.

08-10-2023, 11:48 PM	#1
Jordan All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Chi Suburbs now... Posts: 1,995	Steal Home Anecdotally, when do you choose to do it it in game? How successful do you think you are? What are the ratings for your most successful players to do so? Least successful? Haven't found a thread specifically on this

08-11-2023, 09:33 AM	#3
Sweed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Iowa Posts: 6,748	I think I've tried it twice in all of my years playing. Both times were games where two or three times previously I'd have a runner on third with less than two outs and not get them in. K, popup, shallow flyball, direct hit to IF playing in etc. Not being happy with my batters that day I thought that trying to steal home might actually give me a better chance. I was wrong. My sample size is only two, and the result is 0 for 2. Take if for what it's worth.

08-11-2023, 11:14 AM	#4
md40022 All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 740 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	if I ever stole home it was a one time thing as a test early in the OOTP series. Stealing home is not even in my thought process at any point when managing an OOTP game. I will squeeze and suicide squeeze from time to time when I have the right personnel at-bat and on 3rd base.... and I have a respectable amount of success with that, but a straight steal of home is never in the cards for me. Success rate is just far too low considering any sort of base hit, wild pitch or passed ball is bringing that guy home. Not to mention plenty of ground outs and flyouts will score that run too with less than 2 outs. Adding all of those percentages up just seems to reallllllyyyyy outweight the success rate of stealing home.

08-11-2023, 04:33 PM	#6
Jordan All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Chi Suburbs now... Posts: 1,995	Am I crazy for thinking it succeeds more irl than in the game? I've been seeing a lot of double steals of 2nd/home having success in MLB. I very rarely even try it either for the reasons mentioned above. The thought came to mind playing a Reds save, and giving it a shot in a secure game scoreboard-wise with Elly De La Cruz. It didn't work.

08-11-2023, 05:03 PM	#7
md40022 All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 740 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	I quickly googled it and it looks like the IRL success rate stealing home over the last 50 years is 27%. That's higher than I would have guessed. Still though, if the batter at the plate at the time is a .250 hitter (25%) and then you factor in wild pitches, passed balls, and if less than 2 outs ground outs and fly outs that would score the run, and that would seem to outweigh that 27% success rate. Hence why the idea of it never crosses my mind. I really couldn't tell you how the success rate in the game compares to IRL simply because I have no game data. I suppose you could give it some tests and come up with some data. The one thing I would say though is it's really only ever attempted IRL when you either have THAT DUDE as the runner on 3rd or if there is something at play like a left handed pitcher going from the wind up with the slowest delivery ever and the 3rd baseman playing 20 feet off the bag at the same time....... you really can't factor that into testing with OOTP.