No perfect cards?

buttcrackplumber · 04-01-2023, 09:45 AM

I have opened 220 packs and STILL no perfect cards. Thats 1320 cards. Anyone else seeing this?

Kushiel · 04-01-2023, 09:57 AM

Maybe not the reply that you seek. But you may get 3 in the next 220. And yes that and worse has happened to most that have played PT every year. And much as I hate to say it when I get a bad draw, that is random odds.

HRBaker · 04-01-2023, 10:26 AM

I pulled Verlander, and he stinks anyway, lol.

Ty Cobb · 04-01-2023, 10:57 AM

Bagged 2, a Bettances Historic and a Trout Live.

rburgh · 04-01-2023, 11:47 AM

You're supposed to get one perfect every 1000 cards, or 167 packs. But it's not linear. Sometimes you will get two in a single pack (this has happened to me several times in the 4+ years I've been playing) and other times you'll go more than 300 packs without one.

buttcrackplumber · 04-01-2023, 11:53 AM

Ok, sounds like I just have been getting some bad draws. But in the 4+ years iv been playing PL I have never had such a bad long dry spell. Thanks for the replies guys.

Lathum · 04-01-2023, 04:15 PM

I got 2 in a row, both old time pitchers that I could sell for a couple hundred thousand but I am keeping them. Otherwise none.

ncap99 · 04-01-2023, 05:28 PM

Not trying to minimize your pain here, but 200-300 pack perfect droughts are pretty common, even statistically. I had pulled 9 in 4000 packs until a mini hot streak where I got 3 in 200 packs. I'm still at 12 total when I should have pulled 21 of them by now - but at the same time I've pulled 21 more diamonds and 104 more golds than I should have statistically.

PunishedF2P · 04-01-2023, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rburgh

You're supposed to get one perfect every 1000 cards, or 167 packs. But it's not linear. Sometimes you will get two in a single pack (this has happened to me several times in the 4+ years I've been playing) and other times you'll go more than 300 packs without one.

Nah, it's one every 200 packs. You're guaranteed a bronze in standard packs, the other 5 cards are random.

PunishedF2P · 04-01-2023, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buttcrackplumber

I have opened 220 packs and STILL no perfect cards. Thats 1320 cards. Anyone else seeing this?

That's not even in the vicinity of a drought. You're only 20 packs overdue.

I went on a streak of over 2000 packs last year without pulling a perfect (I did pull 3 perfects in 25 pack that broke the streak) - and I've seen many others report similar things.

SouthernStar71 · 04-02-2023, 01:27 PM

Got my 1st Perfect of 24 today.

It was a historical SP so it was a very nice pull. I'm in Iron and will get promoted to Bronze. This Perfect will be with the team for a very long time. I'm only doing 1 team this year so I can concentrate on it when I need to. Also, I don't get confused with who is on which team.

steamrollers · 04-02-2023, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by buttcrackplumber

Ok, sounds like I just have been getting some bad draws. But in the 4+ years iv been playing PL I have never had such a bad long dry spell. Thanks for the replies guys.

Consider yourself extremely lucky. It took me over 1000 packs in 23 to finally get a perfect. Was over 2000 packs before I ever pulled a 3rd perfect.

rburgh · 04-03-2023, 09:34 PM

Yes, whoever corrected me about what the average number of packs you need to get to receive a perfect card was right. It's one in 200. But sometimes you pull more than one of them in 200 packs; to balance that out somebody else has to get none in their 200 packs.

Here are the odds on pulling a perfect for some random numbers of packs.

1 - 199:1

2 - 99:1

3 - 66:1

Just what you thought, right?

5 - 39.5:1

10 - 19.5:1

20 - 10.5:1

30 - 6.18:1

We're starting to see the effects of having to balance out the lucky so and so who pulls 2 in that number of packs.

40 - 4.5:1
50 - 3.5:1
75 - 2.2:1
100 - 1.54:1

How many packs do you have to have to have a 50/50 chance to pull a perfect? Between 138 and 139.

200 - about a 63% chance to get one
300 - 77.7%
400 - 86.5%
500 - 91.8%
600 - 95%

And you all thought that 600 packs was enough to be sure you'd get 3. Not even close, one time in 20 you will draw a blank.

Germaniac · 04-05-2023, 11:34 AM

Nice statistic, but the odds to pull a perfect card are always the same, no matter if you open 1 pack or 1,000 packs.

You just feel that you have a better chance when you open more packs

Germaniac · 04-05-2023, 11:50 AM

Oh, btw, with my three teams all I have is the grand total of 7, 4 and 9 Diamond Cards, with 2, 0 and 3 coming through completed missions.

So I pulled 5, 4 and 6 diamonds - quite an achievement considering that I started with 3 Diamond Packs (and 5 Gold Packs) from the loyalty bonus program

rburgh · 04-05-2023, 04:50 PM

"Nice statistic, but the odds to pull a perfect card are always the same, no matter if you open 1 pack or 1,000 packs."

The chances of getting a perfect in any individual pack that you pull is 1 in 200. But the problem is, if you open a pack and it has no perfect, the chance that the NEXT pack that you open has a perfect is still 1 in 200. And so on. So the chance that you pull a perfect in 200 packs is NOT 100%, it's about 63%.

smales72 · 04-05-2023, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rburgh

"Nice statistic, but the odds to pull a perfect card are always the same, no matter if you open 1 pack or 1,000 packs."

The chances of getting a perfect in any individual pack that you pull is 1 in 200. But the problem is, if you open a pack and it has no perfect, the chance that the NEXT pack that you open has a perfect is still 1 in 200. And so on. So the chance that you pull a perfect in 200 packs is NOT 100%, it's about 63%.

I'm no genius but you might have lost your mind. ever flip a coin all night and crunch the numbers?

Germaniac · 04-06-2023, 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rburgh

"Nice statistic, but the odds to pull a perfect card are always the same, no matter if you open 1 pack or 1,000 packs."

The chances of getting a perfect in any individual pack that you pull is 1 in 200. But the problem is, if you open a pack and it has no perfect, the chance that the NEXT pack that you open has a perfect is still 1 in 200. And so on. So the chance that you pull a perfect in 200 packs is NOT 100%, it's about 63%.

These are the odds for every Standard Pack you open.

It doesn't matter if you open 1 pack or 1,000 packs, the odds for every single pack are always the same

04-01-2023, 09:45 AM	#1
buttcrackplumber Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Menifee California Posts: 50	No perfect cards? I have opened 220 packs and STILL no perfect cards. Thats 1320 cards. Anyone else seeing this?

04-01-2023, 09:57 AM	#2
Kushiel All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Deep in the Heart of Texas Posts: 1,810	Maybe not the reply that you seek. But you may get 3 in the next 220. And yes that and worse has happened to most that have played PT every year. And much as I hate to say it when I get a bad draw, that is random odds. __________________ *Favente Deo supero*

04-01-2023, 10:26 AM	#3
HRBaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,364	I pulled Verlander, and he stinks anyway, lol. __________________ *HRB*

04-01-2023, 10:57 AM	#4
Ty Cobb Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Grayling, MI Posts: 4,577	Bagged 2, a Bettances Historic and a Trout Live. __________________ "You could not live with your own failure. Where did that bring you? Back to me." Thanos

04-01-2023, 11:47 AM	#5
rburgh All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 929	Odds You're supposed to get one perfect every 1000 cards, or 167 packs. But it's not linear. Sometimes you will get two in a single pack (this has happened to me several times in the 4+ years I've been playing) and other times you'll go more than 300 packs without one.

04-01-2023, 11:53 AM	#6
buttcrackplumber Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Menifee California Posts: 50	Ok, sounds like I just have been getting some bad draws. But in the 4+ years iv been playing PL I have never had such a bad long dry spell. Thanks for the replies guys.

04-01-2023, 04:15 PM	#7
Lathum Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2021 Posts: 227	I got 2 in a row, both old time pitchers that I could sell for a couple hundred thousand but I am keeping them. Otherwise none.

04-01-2023, 05:28 PM	#8
ncap99 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 319	Not trying to minimize your pain here, but 200-300 pack perfect droughts are pretty common, even statistically. I had pulled 9 in 4000 packs until a mini hot streak where I got 3 in 200 packs. I'm still at 12 total when I should have pulled 21 of them by now - but at the same time I've pulled 21 more diamonds and 104 more golds than I should have statistically. __________________

04-02-2023, 01:27 PM	#11
SouthernStar71 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2019 Location: Kentucky, USA Posts: 84	Got my 1st Perfect of 24 today. It was a historical SP so it was a very nice pull. I'm in Iron and will get promoted to Bronze. This Perfect will be with the team for a very long time. I'm only doing 1 team this year so I can concentrate on it when I need to. Also, I don't get confused with who is on which team. __________________

04-03-2023, 09:34 PM	#13
rburgh All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 929	The real odds against pulling a perfect Yes, whoever corrected me about what the average number of packs you need to get to receive a perfect card was right. It's one in 200. But sometimes you pull more than one of them in 200 packs; to balance that out somebody else has to get none in their 200 packs. Here are the odds on pulling a perfect for some random numbers of packs. 1 - 199:1 2 - 99:1 3 - 66:1 Just what you thought, right? 5 - 39.5:1 10 - 19.5:1 20 - 10.5:1 30 - 6.18:1 We're starting to see the effects of having to balance out the lucky so and so who pulls 2 in that number of packs. 40 - 4.5:1 50 - 3.5:1 75 - 2.2:1 100 - 1.54:1 How many packs do you have to have to have a 50/50 chance to pull a perfect? Between 138 and 139. 200 - about a 63% chance to get one 300 - 77.7% 400 - 86.5% 500 - 91.8% 600 - 95% And you all thought that 600 packs was enough to be sure you'd get 3. Not even close, one time in 20 you will draw a blank.

04-05-2023, 11:34 AM	#14
Germaniac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Frankenthal, Germany Posts: 3,058	Nice statistic, but the odds to pull a perfect card are always the same, no matter if you open 1 pack or 1,000 packs. You just feel that you have a better chance when you open more packs __________________ I'm going to have to meet my Maker some day. And if He asks me why I didn't let this boy play, and I say it's because he's black, that might not be a satisfactory answer. Happy Chandler, 1947

04-05-2023, 11:50 AM	#15
Germaniac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Frankenthal, Germany Posts: 3,058	Oh, btw, with my three teams all I have is the grand total of 7, 4 and 9 Diamond Cards, with 2, 0 and 3 coming through completed missions. So I pulled 5, 4 and 6 diamonds - quite an achievement considering that I started with 3 Diamond Packs (and 5 Gold Packs) from the loyalty bonus program __________________ I'm going to have to meet my Maker some day. And if He asks me why I didn't let this boy play, and I say it's because he's black, that might not be a satisfactory answer. Happy Chandler, 1947

04-05-2023, 04:50 PM	#16
rburgh All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 929	Odds are funny "Nice statistic, but the odds to pull a perfect card are always the same, no matter if you open 1 pack or 1,000 packs." The chances of getting a perfect in any individual pack that you pull is 1 in 200. But the problem is, if you open a pack and it has no perfect, the chance that the NEXT pack that you open has a perfect is still 1 in 200. And so on. So the chance that you pull a perfect in 200 packs is NOT 100%, it's about 63%.