What if?: Expanded Playoffs from 1901

[ojoe]

With the offseason approaching and me feeling a little dissatisfied with my current historical replay, I thought I’d try something new. So I decided to go back to 1901 and re-create each year’s playoffs, using the baseball’s new playoff format. Six teams from each league, byes for the top two seeds. Start with a best-of-3 Wild Card round at the home of the higher seed. Five-game Division Series, 7-game LCS and World Series.

This is partly inspired by the way the playoffs worked out this year. We had four 100-win teams in Major League Baseball, and of them, only Houston won a playoff series. Two of the four top-seeded teams with a bye ended up being knocked out in the Division Series (both in 4 games), and then a third bye team was pushed to the limit by what was considered to be the weakest division winner. (No shade to the Guardians - they’re on the way up. But of the six division winners, most of us would probably rank them 6th.) So I thought up this project. These exhibitions don’t take long, so I figured, why not?

Some things to note:

• I’ll usually be simulating all games. Most of the time, I’ll set up the tournament and just simulate to the end, but I may also sim day-by-day and occasionally stop and play out a deciding game.

• Having six playoff qualifiers in each league of course means that ¾ of the teams from 1901 to 1960 are in the playoffs. I decided I didn’t care. This isn’t real, so let’s see if there’s anything really chaotic.

• I actually started with 1901 and then thought I’d be more likely to lose interest if I went chronologically. So I put every year from 1902 to 2021 in a random number selector and spun it about 120 times to get the order.

• This is fantasy, so I reserve the right to throw in whatever wrinkles I feel like at any time. I don’t know what those wrinkles might be at the moment, but I will report them.

• For series from 1901 to 1972, I will not use the DH. For series after, I will use the universal DH. This surprises me, as I prefer NL style, but these will be run as a single exhibition league so I won’t be able to have the AL teams use it and the NL teams not. And no DH means benching some big names that I don't want to lose.

• Like in real life, division winners are seeded ahead of Wild Card. That means the 2021 Dodgers have to play the Wild Card Round. But then so do the 1993 Giants.

• Sometimes in real life, games were rained out and were never made up because they did not affect the standings - but they would have affected the standings if the current format was in play. In those cases, I go by winning percentage. So if I look down for the 6th seed and say one team was 87-75 and another, because of a rain out, was 87-74…well, the 87-74 team advances. (This is going to be most relevant for 1981, when the strike caused teams to play anywhere from 103 to 111 games. 1981 will be the 46th season of this experiment, if it lasts that long.)

• Tiebreakers:

1. Head-to-head (if it’s a three-way tie, I check to see if one of the teams had a losing record against both the others - if so, then that team gets the lowest seed; if not, I proceed to the next tie-breaker)
2. Pythagorean record (basically, run differential, but Baseball-Reference has the Pythagorean record right at the top, and it’s easier to see than calculating runs scored v. runs allowed)
3. Runs scored
4. Runs allowed
5. If somehow it’s still tied, I’ll just pick the team I like better. But I don’t expect anybody will be tied through four rounds of tiebreakers.

• I’m playing either 25 or 30 man rosters. The early years I’ll stick with 25, and for post-expansion years I’ll use 30. It’ll depend on what I feel like at any given time. Certainly for 21st Century teams it’ll probably be 30.

• And finally, when (and if) I get to 2020, the playoffs will actually be smaller than they were in real life. So, sorry to the Marlins and Reds in the NL and Blue Jays and Astros in the AL. Every year is going have six teams per league in the playoffs. (But 2020 came up 108th when I picked years at random, so I will probably abandon this well before then.)

I don’t have many expectations as to how this is going to turn out, but I have some questions, such as:
How many will the Yankees win? I imagine it’ll still be more than anybody else, but 27? They’re bound to lose some of those Ruth/Gehrig/DiMaggio/Mantle titles - but they may also pick up a few, maybe even in years where they narrowly missed the postseason in real life.
How many sub-.500 teams will win?
How will the bye teams do over time? Will they end up winning ⅔ or ¾ of their Division Series, or will it be a 50-50 crap shoot?

So, first up...1901

[luckymann]

Subscribed! Looks like fun.

G

[ojoe]

We're starting in 1901, the first year of the American League.

Real Life World Series Winner: None
Sub-.500 teams: Washington (AL), Chicago (NL)
Tiebreakers Required: None - but the Cubs and Giants both finished 37 games out of 1st. However, the Cubs played two more games than the Giants so their 53-86 gave a winning percentage of .381, compared to New York's 52-85, .380.
1 Seeds: Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates
2 Seeds: Boston Americans, Philadelphia Phillies

Wild Card Round - along with predictions (which were generated by putting each series into the Simulation Module):
(AL 5) Baltimore Orioles at (AL4) Philadelphia Athletics
Prediction: It's a close match on paper, but look for Philadelphia stars like Nap Lajoie, Harry Davis, and Eddie Plank to make the difference. A's in 2.
(AL 6) Washington Senators at (AL 3) Detroit Tigers
Prediction: This one looks a bit more lopsided with the Tigers finishing 12 games ahead of the Senators, the only team in the AL field with a losing record. But even though the team finished 61-72, lefty Casey Patten went 18-10, so look for him to steal a game and force this series to the limit. Tigers in 3
(NL 5) Boston Beaneaters at (NL 4) St. Louis Cardinals
Prediction: This isn't as close as it looks. Boston finished 69-69 to St. Louis's 76-64 - but run differential says that those records should have been 66-72 for the Beaneaters and 79-61 for the Cardinals. Vic Willis and Kid Nichols won't make it easy, but Cardinals in 2.
(NL 6) Chicago Orphans at (NL 3) Brooklyn Superbas
Prediction: Really, the Superbas should get a third bye. They spent the whole summer on the periphery of the pennant race, while the Orphans reached their high point on Opening Day with a win over the Cardinals. That was followed by a 6-game losing streak and Chicago was never in contention after that. Rube Waddell will give it his best shot, but he's up against Willie Keeler, Jimmy Sheckard, Bill Dahlen, and three pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA. Superbas in 2.


So, the game went with chalk - no upsets predicted. Let's see how it turns out.

AL Wild Card 1:Philadelphia 2, Baltimore 1
Game 1: Philadelphia 13, Baltimore 2
Game 2: Baltimore 6, Philadelphia 3
Game 3: Philadelphia 3, Baltimore 2
Series MVP: Dave Fultz, Philadelphia (6/13, .462/.500/.615 -

The A's came out blasting, scoring 7 runs in the bottom of the first on the way to a 13-2 laugher in Game 1. Baltimore starter Joe McGinnity lasted only 2/3 of an inning, but thanks to two Oriole errors, all 7 runs he allowed were unearned. But the Orioles struck back in Game 2 behind a home run and 5 RBI from 2B Jimmy Williams.
The A's did their best to give Game 3 away. Committing three errors that led to Baltimore scoring two unearned runs in the 6th to tie the game at 2-2. But then pitcher Chick Fraser drove in the eventual winning run in the bottom of the 7th with a 2-out double that scored Doc Powers.

AL Wild Card 2:Detroit 2, Washington 0
Game 1: Detroit 6, Washington 2
Game 2: Detroit 8, Washington 3
MVP: Kid Eberfeld, Detroit (3/5, .600/.750/1.200 - 1 HR)

Detroit cruised in Game 1, going out to a 6-0 lead before two late runs tightened the score a little. Washington did have a 3-1 lead after batting in the bottom of the 4th, but then 7 Detroit runs in the bottom of that inning put the series away for the home team.

NL Wild Card 1: St. Louis 2, Boston 1
Game 1: St. Louis 5, Boston 1
Game 2: Boston 8, St. Louis 7
Game 3: St. Louis 6, Boston 1
MVP: Otto Krueger, St. Louis (4/10, .400/.500/1.000 - 2 HR)
A 2-out, 2-run double by shortstop Herman Long in the 9th inning of Game 2 allowed Boston to avoid a sweep. St. Louis dominated Games 1 and 3, both of which were iced by home runs by Cardinal third baseman Otto Krueger.

NL Wild Card 2: Chicago 2, Brooklyn 0
Game 1: Chicago 3, Brooklyn 1
Game 2: Chicago 2, Brooklyn 1
MVP: Topsy Hartsel, Chicago (4/8, .500/.556/.750)
A fairly shocking result as the weakest team in either league ends up taking out a darkhorse candidate for the championship. The often anemic Chicago offense mustered only 5 runs for the two games, but thanks to stellar efforts by pitchers Rube Waddell and Tom Hughes, Brooklyn was only able to score two. Brooklyn's Willie Keeler, Jimmy Sheckard, and Bill Dahlen combined to go 4-22 with no runs scored.

Division Series Matchups w/predictions
ALDS 1: (4) Philadelphia vs. (2) Boston
Look for Philadelphia to keep rolling behind Nap Lajoie and its pitching stars. The game smells an upset here, and a fairly emphatic one. A's in 3.
ALDS 2: (3) Detroit vs. (1) Chicago
Detroit will be a tough out, but 3B Fred Hartman and SP Roy Patterson are both primed for big series and they should give the No. 1 seed enough to survive. White Sox in 5
NLDS 1: (4) St. Louis vs. (2) Philadelphia
The Cardinals have enough to steal a game - probably Game 3 in St. Louis - but between Ed Delahanty and Doc White, the rested Phillies just have too much. Phillies in 4
NLDS 2: (6) Chicago vs. (1) Pittsburgh
This figures to be a fairly one-sided affair - but we've thought that before. Still, Rube Waddell and Tom Hughes aren't going to stop Honus Wagner and Fred Clarke. ...Are they? Probably not. Pirates in 3
* Just for fun, I ran the simulation mode for 162 games between these two teams. Pittsburgh won 82-80. Honus Wagner, who batted .353 with a .910 OPS in real life, went for .242 and a .633 OPS.


Results:
ALDS 1: Philadelphia 3, Boston 1
Game 1: Philadelphia 15, Boston 3
Game 2: Philadelphia 5, Boston 3
Game 3: Boston 7, Philadelphia 5
Game 5: Philadelphia 4, Boston 0
MVP: Nap Lajoie, Philadelphia (12/17, .706!/.700!/1.176! - 1 HR, 5 R, 8 RBI)
How dominant was Nap Lajoie? His worst game of the series was Game 2, when he went 2/4 with a double, 1 run scored, and 2 RBI. He hit 3 doubles, a triple, a home run, he stole a base...he did everything but commit an error. Once again, Philadelphia opened with a blowout in Game 1 and never looked back.

ALDS 2: Chicago 3, Detroit 0
Game 1: Chicago 6, Detroit 5
Game 2: Chicago 4, Detroit 3
Game 3: Chicago 2, Detroit 0
MVP: Clark Griffith, Chicago - 9 IP, 0 runs, 4 hits
Chicago got a pair of walk-off wins at home, breaking a 5-5 tie with a 2-out single by Herm McFarland n Game 1 and then erasing a 3-1 deficit with a 3-run 9th inning rally in Game 2. Then Griffith came in to shut down the Tigers in a closely-fought, but ultimately one-sided series.

NLDS 1: Philadelphia 3, St. Louis 0
Game 1: Philadelphia 8, St. Louis 0
Game 2: Philadelphia 6, St. Louis 2
Game 3: Philadelphia 10, St. Louis 9
MVP: Elmer Flick, Philadelphia (6/13, .462/.462/.692)
The Phils cruised at home before stunning St. Louis with a huge 9th inning rally to take the sweep. The Cardinals led 8-2 after 8 innings in the final game, but then Philadelphia scored 3 in the 8th and then 5 more in the 9th to take it 10-9 and move on to the NLCS.

NLDS 2: Pittsburgh 3, Chicago 2
Game 1: Chicago 2, Pittsburgh 1
Game 2: Pittsburgh 5, Chicago 4 (11 innings)
Game 3: Pittsburgh 7, Chicago 6 (11 innings)
Game 4: Chicago 3, Pittsburgh 2
Game 5: Pittsburgh 12, Chicago 4
MVP: Kitty Bransfield, Pittsburgh (10/23, .435/.435/.522)
What were the Orphans hiding all year. They managed only a .381 winning percentage, but then swept Brooklyn in the Wild Card Round and took the league's best team to 5 games in the Division Series. After the Game 1 loss, Pittsburgh needed to stage late inning comebacks in Games 2 and 3 to send those games to extra innings. Otherwise, the 53-86 Orphans would be headed to the NLCS with a 5-0 playoff record. But Pittsburgh did rally - and they needed another one in Game 5. Chicago jumped out to an early lead with a 4-run 2nd inning before the Pirates collectively said, "OK, enough of this nonsense" and scored 12 unanswered runs to turn Game 5 into a rout.

Next up: AL and NLCS.

And, hell of a run by the Chicago Orphans. We'll pour one out for them here:

[ojoe]

Originally Posted by luckymann

Subscribed! Looks like fun.

G

Thanks. I've already got a few of these in the bag - just gotta figure out how to not take so much time to report...But I'm also enjoying the reporting.

[ojoe]

OK, so on to the Final Four for 1901.

The ALCS:

#3 Philadelphia Athletics


vs.

#1 Chicago White Sox


Prediction:
This looks to be an evenly-matched series. Nap Lajoie is scorching right now, batting .552 through the first two playoff series. However, the White Sox have plenty of firepower of their own. This is a match up the two highest-scoring offenses in the American League, so the difference will likely come down to pitching. And while Philadelphia's pitchers have been excellent so far, that matchup favors Chicago. White Sox in 7

Actual Series:Chicago 4, Philadelphia 2
Game 1: Chicago 4, Philadelphia 1
Game 2: Philadelphia 10, Chicago 2
Game 3: Chicago 6, Philadelphia 4
Game 4: Chicago 11, Philadelphia 2
Game 5: Philadelphia 6, Chicago 2
Game 6: Chicago 1, Philadelphia 0
MVP: Sam Mertes, Chicago (11/24, .458/.519/.875)
Nap Lajoie kept hitting - though his .476 average in the ALCS actually brought his playoff average down to .520 with a 1.349 OPS. Matty McIntyre and Socks Seybold combined to go 20-for-46 over the 6 games, but Philadelphia got little help outside those three, and starter Eddie Plank gave up 12 earned runs in 11 innings over two starts. And while the game selected Sam Mertes as the series MVP, I think he should share it with Clark Griffith and Roy Patterson. The two of them combined for the four wins, each pitching two complete games with an ERA 1.50, and Griffith finished off the A's with a 1-0 shutout in Game 6.

...And it's late and I'm tired so I can't do the NLCS tonight. I'll get to that and the World Series tomorrow. After that, the spinner chose 1991 as the next season.

[ojoe]

And now on to the NLCS, which is an all-Pennsylvania affair:

#2 Philadelphia Phillies


vs.

#1 Pittsburgh Pirates


Prediction:
The Phillies are a talented team and they're coming off a sweep of the Division Series, but the Simulation Module doesn't think much of their chances. Look for Roy Thomas to go off, but Jack Chesbro and Jesse Tannehill should keep the rest of the Phils in check, while Phillie pitchers may not find many answers for Fred Clarke, Honus Wagner, or Tommy Leach. Pirates in 5


Actual Series:Pittsburgh 4, Philadelphia 3
Game 1: Philadelphia 4, Pittsburgh 2
Game 2: Philadelphia 3, Pittsburgh 2 (11 innings)
Game 3: Pittsburgh 17, Philadelphia 3
Game 4: Philadelphia 4, Pittsburgh 3
Game 5: Pittsburgh 8, Philadelphia 0
Game 6: Pittsburgh 10, Philadelphia 4
Game 7: Pittsburgh 6, Philadelphia 2
MVP: Lefty Davis, Pittsburgh (12/32, .438/.486/.562)
The Phillies raced out to a 3-1 lead in the series, but then never held the lead at the end of an inning in the final three games. They did go up 2-1 with a pair of runs in the top of the 5th of Game 7, but the Pirates answered with a tying run in the bottom of the inning and then put it away with 4 more in the bottom of the 6th. Chief Zimmer brought home three runs on a bases-loaded double and then later came home on a single by MVP Lefty Davis to finish the scoring.



And now, the 1901 World Series...

Prediction
Through the first two rounds, the Simulation Module predicted Pittsburgh would sweep Chicago and dispatch Philadelphia in 5. In reality, they were pushed to the limit in both series and had to come back from a 3-1 deficit to get past the Phillies. So when the simulator predicts a Pirates sweep while outscoring the White Sox 28-14...well, I'm skeptical. Still, the simulation says what it says, so Pirates in 4.

Actual Series:Pirates 4, White Sox 1
Game 1: Chicago 2, Pittsburgh 1
Game 2: Pittsburgh 9, Chicago 6
Game 3: Pittsburgh 4, Chicago 0
Game 4: Pittsburgh 2, Chicago 1
Game 5: Pittsburgh 7, Chicago 4
MVP: Kitty Bransfield, Pittsburgh (10/20, .500/.524/.650)
Roy Patterson got the White Sox off to a great start in Game 1. Honus Wagner had a chance to bring Pittsburgh back in Game 1, coming up with runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out in the 9th - but Patterson got him to ground into a 5-4-3 double play and Chicago survived to take a 1-0 lead. Then they took a 6-2 lead in the 7th game of Game 2, but the Pirates scored 7 in the bottom of the inning and never looked back. The White Sox never held a lead in any of the last three games.

Playoff Leaders
Runs Scored: 19 - Kitty Bransfield, Pittsburgh
Hits: 32 - Lefty Davis, Pittsburgh
Home Runs: 2 - 5 Players
RBI: 14 - Socks Seybold, Philadelphia (A)
AVG (30PA): .520 - Nap Lajoie, Philadelphia (A)
OBP: .569 - Nap Lajoie, Philadelphia (A)
SLG: .780 - Nap Lajoie, Philadelphia (A)
OPS: 1.349 - Nap Lajoie, Philadelphia (A)
SB: 6 - Sam Mertes, Chicago (A) (6 attempts)
W/L record: 6-0 - Deacon Phillippe, Pittsburgh
ERA: 0.95 - Snake Wiltse, Philadelphia (A) (28.1 innings)
WHIP: 0.77 - Rube Waddell, Chicago (N) (23.1 innings)
K: 26 - Sam Leever, Pittsburgh (51.0 IP)
SV: 2 - Ed Doheny, Pittsburgh

Next Up: 1991 Another year where Pittsburgh had the best record in all of baseball - but this time they fell short of the World Series. We'll see if the expanded playoffs can help correct that.

[luckymann]

Great stuff! Hoping my A's feature prominently in '91 with the Bash Bros front and centre.

[ojoe]

OK, if I have any chance of going deep into this project I'm going to have to learn to keep it brief. So let's see if I can pull this off...

Year: 1991
Real AL Champion: Minnesota Twins
Real NL Champion: Atlanta Braves
Real World Series: Twins in 7 - an all-time classic
American League Byes: #1 Minnesota Twins, #2 Toronto Blue Jays
AL Wild Card Round: #3 Chicago White Sox vs. #6 Detroit Tigers, #4 Texas Rangers vs. #5 Oakland A's
National League Byes: #1 Pittsburgh Pirates, #2 Atlanta Braves
NL Wild Card Round: #3 St. Louis Cardinals vs. #6 Philadelphia Phillies, #4 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. #5 San Diego Padres
Tiebreaker: The first four spots in the AL were easy, but then Oakland, Detroit, and Boston all tied for the 5/6 spots. So I went to head-to-head records, and Boston lost the season series to both the A's and the Tigers, so they were out. Oakland also won their season series against Detroit, so they got the higher seed.
Wait, is that National League correct?: No. No it is not. The Dodgers should have been the 3 seed, the Cardinals 5 (they would have tied at 4 with San Diego, but the Padres won the season series). So the Wild Card matchups ended up being 3 v. 4, 5 v. 6. Don't know how that happened but, that kind of mixup is grounds for scrapping the project and running it again with the correct seeding.
So why didn't you? Because I didn't catch it until I ran the whole thing, and there was one specific game in the Division Series round that I just couldn't bear to sacrifice.
Did anybody get hosed by this? Yep. The Padres. They should have hosted the Wild Card round, but ended up having to go to LA. It did not go as well for them as their recent real-live adventure.
Do you hate the Padres? Nope. I'm a Giants fan. We have a common enemy. But that common enemy played in (and won) a crazy game that I didn't want to erase.
Any other issues? Yeah, I've been seeding these wrong. I've been matching the 3/6 Wild Card winner against the 1 seed, and the 4/5 winner against. Both leagues in this year's playoffs had examples showing that this is incorrect. I've already run five of these and will correct it going forward...So actually, my NL seeding screw up did result in accurate Division Series matchups.
Oh, and I forgot to change the Division Series from 7 games to 5.
You're not really making this shorter, are you? Not at the moment, no.

Wild Card Predictions and Results
AL WC 1: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Sim Module Prediction: Rangers in 2
Actual Results: Rangers in 2
Dennis Eckersley blew the save and took the loss in Game 1, and pitched 2 1/3 innings along the way, making him unavailable to close out a 1-run lead in the 9th inning of Game 2. Rick Honeycutt ended up blowing the lead in that game. The winning run scored on a wild pitch.
MVP: Rafael Palmeiro, Texas (6/10, .900 SLG)

AL WC 2: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Sim Module Prediction: Somehow, Tigers in 2...and by a combined score of 11-1
Actual Results: White Sox in 3
MVP: Craig Grebeck, Chicago (4/8, 3 RBI)

NL WC 1:San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Dodgers in 3
Actual Results: Dodgers in 2
Two-hit, 12K shutout by Kevin Gross in Game 2 - San Diego scored 0 runs on 8 hits for the series
MVP: Kevin Gross, Los Angeles

NL WC 2: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Again, the sim module picks a dominating 2-0 sweep for the 6 seed
Actual Results: St. Louis in 3
MVP: Pedro Guerrero, St. Louis (4/11, .818 SLG)

Division Series Round

ALDS 1: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Blue Jays in 6
Actual Results: Rangers in 6
A 3-hit, 12K shutout by Nolan Ryan in Game 6
MVP: Rafael Palmeiro, Texas (8/24...Nolan Ryan was robbed, 2-0, 1.06 ERA, 19K in 17 innings)

ALDS 2: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Twins in 7
Actual Results: White Sox in 5
MVP: Frank Thomas, Chicago (8/16, 3 HR, 1.062 SLG)
So real World Series winners in this experiment? 0-1 so far

NLDS 1: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Dodgers in 5
Actual Results: Dodgers in 6
MVP: Eddie Murray, Los Angeles (11/25, .560 SLG)...but LA's real MVP was probably Atlanta closer Alejandro Pena. In Games 1, 3, and 6, Pena pitched 3.0 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit. Game 2 and 5? 1.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 blown saves.

And speaking of which, I mentioned a crazy game that I didn't want to erase. That's Game 2 of this series.

LA scored 3 in the top of the 1st, Atlanta answers with 3 in the bottom of the inning. Atlanta takes a 9-4 lead into the 8th...Dodgers score 5 in the 8th, 3 in the 9th. ...So maybe it's not that crazy, just an amazing comeback. By the Dodgers. Wondering now why I got so emotionally attached to that game. Maybe it's that the decisive blow was struck by Eddie Murray and I like him.
The line score:


NLDS 2: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pirates in 5
Actual Results: Pirates in 4
MVP: Bobby Bonilla, Pittsburgh (10/17, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1.059 SLG)


League Championship Series

American League: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox





Prediction: White Sox in 7
Actual Results: Rangers in 5
MVP: Brian Downing, Texas (7/20, 6 RBI)


National League: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates




Prediction: Pirates in 6
Actual Results: Pirates in 4
MVP: Doug Drabek, Pittsburgh (2-0, 1.04 ERA, 11 K, 17.1 IP)


World Series: Texas Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pirates in 6
Actual Results:
Game 1: Pittsburgh 3, Texas 1
Game 2: Texas 7, Pittsburgh 1
Game 3: Pittsburgh 3, Texas 0
Game 4: Pittsburgh 4, Texas 1
Game 5: Pittsburgh 9, Texas 4
MVP: Barry Bonds, Pittsburgh...only 5/17 with 2 HR...So I think it should've been John Smiley, 2-0, 11 Ks, 1.12 ERA in 16 innings, including 1 ER in 8 IP in the clincher.

Recap/Stats/Leaders
How did the bye teams do? Pittsburgh won, everybody else lost. So, 1-3 this year and 4-4 after the first two years.
Did the real league champs win the pennant? Nope. 0-2 this year, 2-2 so far.
Did the real World Series champs win it all? Again, no. This is the first season I've played where there was a real World Series, so 0-1.
Hits: 23 - Rafael Palmeiro, Texas
Runs: 12 - Julio Franco, Ruben Sierra, Texas; Gary Redus, Pittsburgh
HR: 5 - Barry Bonds, Gary Redus, Pittsburgh; Frank Thomas, Chicago
RBI: 14 - Gary Redus, Pittsburgh
AVG: .377 - Eddie Murray, Los Angeles (56 PA)
OBP: .517 - Frank Thomas, Chicago (58 PA)
SLG: .732 - Thomas
OPS: 1.249 - Thomas
SB: 8 - Otis Nixon, Atlanta; Gary Pettis, Texas
W/L Record: 4-0 - Doug Drabek and John Smiley, Pittsburgh; Terry Mathews, Texas
ERA: 0.76 - Doug Drabek (35.1 IP)...Also, Jeff Russell, Texas, .066 in 13.2 IP.
WHIP: 0.75 - Drabek (Russell's WHIP was higher)
K: 43 - Nolan Ryan, Texas (40.0 IP - he was also 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
SV: 5 - Jay Howell, Los Angeles

Next up: 1907
The Pirates have won the first two, which have both happened to be years in which they had the best record in baseball. They were strong again in 1907, going 91-63, but the 107-win Cubs will be the betting favorites.

[luckymann]

Perhaps not shorter but deftly handled all the same my friend - had me chuckling despite the terrible deja-vu from Eck's blown save.

[Pelican]

And that Dodger-Brave game really was pretty amazing and worth keeping.

[Brad K]

How did you get from 1901 to 1991?

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

How did you get from 1901 to 1991?

He's doing them randomly to keep it interesting.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

He's doing them randomly to keep it interesting.

More interesting to me would be able to watch teams' successful eras in order to see if they could sustain it in this game. This way we can't know as its happening. We have to wait until the end.

[ojoe]

Originally Posted by Brad K

How did you get from 1901 to 1991?

Yeah, as somebody pointed out, I thought I'd get really bored (specifically of the deadball era) if I went straight through. So I found a way to randomly choose years from 1902 to 2021 and that's the order I'm using. Turns out three of the first five are still deadball era, but with 1991 and 1976 sprinkled in. The next 5 have no deadball era seasons...though just barely. 1921 is 6th on my list. But then it'll go to 2009, 1957, 1975, and 1970.

Just figured it would be more fun to have Albert Pujols, then Hank Aaron, then Joe Morgan, then Frank Robinson instead of...ugh, Joe Tinker again. ...Which is being totally unfair to Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, Eddie Collins, Walter Johnson, Cy Young, etc. But I also wanted to have some nostalgia, and those guys are before my time.

[ojoe]

Originally Posted by Brad K

More interesting to me would be able to watch teams' successful eras in order to see if they could sustain it in this game. This way we can't know as its happening. We have to wait until the end.

That is a good idea. It'll take me a while to see this through, and I don't really expect that I will. But that could a be fun thing to do next. I'm kinda committed to this way for now, but give it a shot if you like.

[ojoe]

And now back to the deadball era and 1907.

In real life, the Cubs were in the middle of a stretch of pretty crazy dominance. They won 116 in 1906 and then followed it up with 107 wins in 1907. But whereas they were stunned by their crosstown rival White Sox in the '06 World Series, they swept Detroit for the 1907 championship.

...I was going to post images of the teams at this point, but I'm having a technical issue so I'll just get into it.

American League Seeds
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Philadelphia Athletics
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Naps
5. New York Highlanders
6. St. Louis Browns

National League Seeds
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. New York Giants
5. Brooklyn Superbas
6. Cincinnati Reds

Fun Questions

1. How will this burgeoning Cubs dynasty do?
2. Did I get the seeds right this time? (Answer: Yes.)
3. Can the Pirates make it 3-for-3, which would put them at 60 percent of their real World Series total after just three simulations?
4. Are the St. Louis Browns ever going to win one of these?
5. Am I going to come up with a consistent format for this or is it going to change from year to year?

Wild Card Round

ALWC 1: #6 St. Louis at #3 Chicago
Simulation Module Predicts...Browns in 2?
Actual Results:
Game 1: White Sox 5, Browns 1
Game 2: White Sox 3, Browns 2
MVP: Ed Walsh, Chicago - allowed just one unearned run on 2 hits in a Game 1 win. (I was about to say it was a complete game...but don't we all know that? It'll probably be easier if I note when a guy didn't go the distance for these deadball years.)

ALWC 2: #5 New York at #4 Cleveland
Prediction: Naps in 2
Actual Results:
Game 1: New York 4, Cleveland 1
Game 2: Cleveland 3, New York 2
Game 3: Cleveland 8, New York 4
MVP: Nap Lajoie, Cleveland (5/11, 1 HR, .455/.500/.909)
The Naps were 1 out from elimination, trailing 2-1 in the bottom of the 9th of Game 2. Harry Bay had walked with 1 out and then tagged up to second on Bill Bradley's fly out to deep right and then moved to third on a wild pitch. Then consecutive singles by Rabbit Nill, Addie Joss, and Terry Turner tied and then won the game for Cleveland. They then knocked around Slow Joe Doyle for 7 runs (6 earned) in 4.2 innings in Game 3 to advance to the ALDS.

NLWC 1: #6 Cincinnati at #3 Philadelphia
Prediction: Reds in 3? What is it with the simulation module picking 6 seeds?
Actual results:
Game 1: Philadelphia 3, Cincinnati 2
Game 2: Philadelphia 3, Cincinnati 2
MVP: George McQuillan, Philadelphia - I suppose because he allowed no earned runs in his Game 1 win, while Tully Sparks gave up 2 earned while winning Game 2...and because nobody on the Phillies scored more than 2 or drove in more than 1. And again, we had a 2-run, 2-out rally in the bottom of the 9th set up by a 1-out walk. Fred Jacklitsch drew the walk, but did not tag up on the subsequent fly out. But he did score on Fred Osborn's double, and then after a walk and a single to load the bases, Osborn came home on a base hit by Sherry Magee. So I scoffed at the pick, but the Reds played it tight.

NLWC 2: #5 Brooklyn at #4 New York
Prediction: Giants in 2
Caveat: Hey, didn't you make a reference to being a Giants fan, and so should we be suspicious any time these two franchises play throughout this simulation?
Answer: Yes, I did say that. And I referenced a "common enemy" shared by Giants and Padres fans. I was not referring to the Phillies. But no, you should not be suspicious. I just hit "simulate" and let the results lie where they may.
Follow up: OK, so this is gonna be on the level?
Retort: Yes...but, OK. This one is gonna look bad. It's important to remember that the Giants did win 17 more games than the Superbas this season. And I also know something about the 1913 sim that nobody else knows yet.
Just one more: So you're saying that every time the Giants and Dodgers play, you're just going to sim it out and there will never be any funny business?
Conclusion:

(stares into space)

.....Yeah. ....Sure. .....You could say that. (mumbles: I'm not gonna, but you could. It's my game and my fantasy and geez don't judge me, OK?)

Results:
Game 1: New York 11, Brooklyn 0
Game 2: New York 1, Brooklyn 0
What I know about the 1913 Sim: Spoiler alert - a much worse Dodgers team beats a much better Giants one.
MVP: Red Ames, New York - and it should have been at least shared with Christy Mathewson. Both pitched shutouts. Ames allowed 3 hits with 8 Ks, Mathewson 2 hits with 5 Ks.

Division Series

ALDS 1: #4 Cleveland at #2 Philadelphia
Prediction: A's in 4
Actual Results:
Game 1: Philadelphia 5, Cleveland 1
Game 2: Philadelphia 3, Cleveland 1
Game 3: Philadelphia 3, Cleveland 2
MVP: Sam Nicholls, Philadelphia (6/10, 1 HR, .600/.636/.900)

ALDS 2: #3 Chicago at #1 Detroit
Prediction: White Sox in 3 - the sim module really loves underdogs
Actual Results:
Game 1: Chicago 2, Detroit 0
Game 2: Detroit 7, Chicago 3
Game 3: Chicago 5, Detroit 2
Game 4: Detroit 3, Chicago 2
Game 5: Detroit 2, Chicago 0
MVP: George Mullin, Detroit (2-0, 1.50 ERA, 18 IP - Bill Donovan had a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings, but he also lost a game)
Notable stat: Ty Cobb went 3/20
And also: Again, this should have been White Sox/A's and Naps/ Tigers. The NL seedings will be similarly wrong. This will be corrected after a few more Series.

NLDS 1: #4 New York at #2 Pittsburgh
Prediction: Giants in 3
Actual Results:
Game 1: New York 6, Pittsburgh 4
Game 2: Pittsburgh 5, New York 1
Game 3: Pittsburgh 5, New York 1
Game 4: New York 4, Pittsburgh 2
Game 5: New York 7, Pittsburgh 6
MVP: Art Devlin, New York (6/15, .400/.550/.600)

NLDS 2: #3 Philadelphia vs. #1 Chicago
Prediction: Cubs in 4...because, of course - they won 107 games
Actual Results (and maybe you can see where this is going):
Game 1: Philadelphia 4, Chicago 0
Game 2: Philadelphia 8, Chicago 1
Game 3: Chicago 7, Philadelphia 6
Game 4: Chicago 4, Philadelphia 3
Game 5: Philadelphia 4, Chicago 3
And that's a 2019 World Series Special - the road team goes undefeated
MVP: Kitty Bransfield (who won two series MVPs for 1901 Pittsburgh - 10/20, .500/.524/.700)
The Cubs rallied from 3-1 down in the 7th to take Game 4, and then found themselves down 4-1 in the 9th of Game 5:

• Jimmy Sheckard, hit by pitch
• Frank Schulte - single, Shekard to 2nd
• Jimmy Slagle - single, bases loaded
• Del Howard - fly out to RF, no advancement
• Pat Moran - single, Sheckard scores, bases remain loaded, 4-2 PHI
• Johnny Evers - Walk, Schulte scores, 4-3 PHI...bases loaded, 1 out for...
• Solly Hoffman - 6-2-3 double play. 107 wins, down the [insert obscene metaphor of your choice...as a Giants fan, I can think of a few choice words for a 107-win season ending in a 1st round exit]

League Championship Series

ALCS: Philadelphia Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Tigers in 5
Actual Results:
Game 1: Philadelphia 5, Detroit 4
Game 2: Detroit 4, Philadelphia 0
Game 3: Philadelphia 11, Detroit 7
Game 4: Detroit 6, Philadelphia 4
Game 5: Philadelphia 5, Detroit 4 (12 innings)
Game 6: Philadelphia 3, Detroit 0
MVP: Eddie Plank, Philadelphia (2-0, 2.81 ERA in 16 innings - I'm assuming on the strength of the 3-hit shutout in game 6 - he did win Game 3, but gave up 6 runs (5 earned) in 7 innings)

NLCS: New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Phillies in 7
Actual Results:
Game 1: Philadelphia 2, New York 1
Game 2: New York 3, Philadelphia 2
Game 3: New York 3, Philadelphia 1
Game 4: Philadelphia 3, New York 2
Game 5: Philadelphia 6, New York 5
Game 6: Philadelphia 3, New York 2 (10 innings)
MVP: Mickey Doolan, Philadelphia (8/19, .421/.450/.789) - George McQuillan also pitched to a 1.12 ERA in 16 innings
Fun fact: Harry Coveleski went 2-0, pitching only 5 innings - he allowed 1 hit and no runs.
Pretty crazy series with five 1-run games and one 2-run game. The Giants trailed 1-0 going into the 9th of Game 2 before scoring 3 and then holding on to win 3-2. Philly trailed 2-0 before 1 in the 8th and 2 in the 9th of Game 4, tying the series. Then the next night they trailed 5-2 before 3 in the 8th and 1 in the 9th to take a 3-2 lead back to Philadelphia. The only walk-off was in Game 6, when Ernie Courtney singled home Sherry Magee with 1 out in the 10th.
I said earlier that the "common enemy" of the Padres and Giants was NOT the Phillies. ...After further consideration...nah, this doesn't change that. Good luck, Phillies. Beat Brook-lyn! (Since L.A. doesn't have a team in 1913.)

WORLD SERIES

Philadelphia Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction for this Philly Special: Phillies in 6
Actual Results:
Game 1: A's 5, Phillies 4
Game 2: Phillies 7, A's 3
Game 3: A's 1, Phillies 0
Game 4: A's 4, Phillies 0 (12 innings)
Game 5: Phillies 7, A's 2
Game 6: A's 8, Phillies 5 (the game was 0-0 after 5)
MVP: Ossie Schreckengost, Philadelphia A's (12/26, .462/.462/.538) - but maybe Rube Waddell (22 innings, 13 hits, 1.23 ERA, 2-0 with a save in Game 7) deserves a share.

How did the bye teams do? 1-3 in the Division Series; 5-7 through three seasons...no bye teams made the World Series, so of 6 possible World Series berths so far, bye teams have 3, wild card teams have 3.
League Champs? Neither matched their real-life accomplishment, so the real League champs are 2-4 (1-2 in each league) in terms of winning the pretend pennant
World Series Champs? Nope. The real champs are 0-2 as far as winning my fake World Series.
Most Hits: 24 - Kitty Bransfield, Philadelphia Phillies
Runs: 13 - Sherry Magee, Philadelphia Phillies
Home Runs: 2 - Jack Coombs, Philadelphia Athletics
RBI: 14 - Magee
AVG: .404 - Davy Jones, Detroit (51 PAs)
OBP: .451 - Jones
SLG: .562 - Coombs (57 PAs)
OPS: .962 - Jones
SB: 4 - 4 players, the most famous of which is Ty Cobb
W/L Record: 5-0 - Eddie Plank, Philadelphia Athletics
ERA: 1.00 - Ed Walsh, Chicago White Sox (27 IP)
WHIP: 0.52 - Walsh (geez, how did he lose a game?)
K: 32 - Rube Waddell, Philadelphia A's (48 IP)
SV: 1 - Waddell and Mordecai Brown, Chicago Cubs...not surprising as saves aren't really a thing in 1907

Sorry no pictures. Postimages is having some internal system error thingy going on.

Next up: 1976 - can the Big Red Machine be the first real-life champion to win the...What am I calling this? Do I need a name?

[luckymann]

the WHIPs...

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by ojoe

That is a good idea. It'll take me a while to see this through, and I don't really expect that I will. But that could a be fun thing to do next. I'm kinda committed to this way for now, but give it a shot if you like.

Its early enough to switch to chronological order if you want to. You'd only have a few skips at this point.

But pay me no mind on this. I just checked in with a minor interest and was surprised to see random order.

[ojoe]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Its early enough to switch to chronological order if you want to. You'd only have a few skips at this point.

But pay me no mind on this. I just checked in with a minor interest and was surprised to see random order.

No, you make a good point. Here's the truth about my decision to do it randomly: I teach high school English. I have a massive stack of essays that I am slowly working my way through. This is a procrastination/coping technique. I love my students, but after a while their essays do start to sound the same. So the idea of 20 seasons worth of Dead Ball era...well, that felt like yet another All Quiet on the Western Front essay that talks about the horrifically horrible and horribly horrifying horrors of war. (About 97 percent of the students use some form of "horror" about 15 times per essay.) I just couldn't bear it. Then I put the years in the random number thing and up popped a couple of recent seasons with players I knew, and I thought that'd be fun...

Just for kicks, I started a historical league and have run it through 1912. I have historical transactions set so the real players are on the correct teams - but of course by running it as a historical league, I'm going to end up with the right teams in the historically-correct seeds. For instance, the 1907-1909 Tigers obviously finished with the best record in the AL - but in the historical sim, they never finished better than 3rd. But mostly I ran it so see if I really would get bored with the same teams over and over again...So far, no. Again, I ran this as an experiment. If I did end up switching to chronological, I would go back to a historical exhibition so I could put all the teams into the proper seeds.

For the record, of the 12 seasons I simmed in that other league:
- three AL champions matched the real results (1903 Red Sox, 1908 Tigers, 1911 A's)
- four NL champions did (1902 Pirates, 1904 Giants, 1906 Cubs, 1909 Pirates)
- two World Series champions matched (1903 Red Sox, 1909 Pirates)

So I think maybe that could work out too...and if somebody wanted to go back through these and see how everything worked out, they'd be able to find a particular year more easily. So I dunno. I think I may be leaning towards it. I do have 1976 (and a few others) ready to go, but hell. Maybe I should just run 1902?

I mean, ultimately I am doing these for me, and if anybody else enjoys reading any of it, then I'm glad for that. But now I am wondering if chronological is the way to go.

And no, those essays are not going to grade themselves. But that doesn't mean I gotta do it. Not tonight, anyway.

Eventually, of course, I do gotta do it.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by ojoe

I mean, ultimately I am doing these for me, and if anybody else enjoys reading any of it, then I'm glad for that.

That's exactly right.