The Miami Marlins - Can They Be Good? (est. 2022)

[dannibalcorpse]

Inspiration credited to ArtDeco for this dynasty - his work (with the Pirates especially!) was a lot of fun to read and I wanted to try my hand at taking one of the league’s also-rans and making them something worthwhile. One of the only teams that might be more of a pain to try and build into something is Miami - no money, no fans, a mediocre farm, and not a ton of talent on the MLB roster beyond some good starting pitcher and a star 2B. The cupboard’s not bare, but we’re down to a couple cans of Creamed Spinach and something called “Carbell’s Soup”? It’s gonna be tough restocking this one.

I’m more or less playing vanilla, out of the box OOTP. Scouting is medium, rated 20-80(5 point increments), injuries are set to Realistic Modern Day, league evolution is on but modified (no expansion, no changes to active/40-man roster sizes), and the one change I made from real life is changing September expansion to 30 players from 28 (just not enough!)

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2022 will be the Marlins’ 30th year of existence, and true to the nature of their hometown, Miami had been an all or nothing team to this point. 29 seasons, with only 7 winning seasons. Only 3 playoff appearances - World Series wins in 1997 & 2003 and a NLDS sweep at the hand of the Braves in the 2020 Playoffs. A young team where 4 of the franchise’s top 10 WAR producers were still active in the league - unfortunately, 3 of those 4 had been traded away by previous GMs. Looking to establish some sort of continuity, and maybe even win a few playoff games, the ownership group headed by Bruce Sherman turned their eyes west and brought in a new voice to lead the team - Tucson, AZ native Jackie Daytona has been hired as President of Baseball Operations, confirming all personnel moves in consult with General Manager Kim Ng, while also trying to generate more revenue for a team notorious for their difficulties in cracking 5 figures in nightly attendance. It will be a chore - the market has been burned so many times by past administrations that fan loyalty is in the tank, and it will take a lot to get the fans to buy in again. Unfortunately, the lack of fans makes it hard to make *that* happen, seeing as the Sherman Group is not in the habit of throwing good money after bad, and the Marlins will be operating with a bottom-third budget going forward.

The good news is that there’s something to work with here:



There’s a trio of strong starters here that are all 26 or younger, with arbitration eligibility remaining. Trever Rogers, Sandy Alcantara, & Pablo Lopez form an impressive backbone for the rotation; OSA also is high on this team up the middle, rating the important C/2B/SS/CF positions as top 13 or better versus the rest of the league.

Prospect-wise, the team’s best young talent is a few years away:



Eury Perez & Kahlil Watson are probably 2-3 years away; Max Meyer might make an impact this year, but the goal is to bring the #3 overall pick along slowly - COVID limited to 4 starts in 2020 and only 111 innings in 2021, so he shouldn’t push much past 150 combined innings at all levels this year. Jake Eder is probably MLB ready but Tommy John surgery won’t let us see him til 2023 at the earliest. The only other one of the Marlins’ top 20 prospects that might show up in 2022 is JJ Bleday - he struggled some in AA Jacksonville during 2021 but he’s 24 and probably close to fully realized. The dark horse is Lester Nin - the 18 year old July 2 signee has 60/45/65 potentials with a plus fastball/curveball/change combo and top of the rotation potential. Still a long road from the Dominican Complex leagues to the big leagues, but he’s a name to keep an eye on.

Going into the season the main roster looks like it’ll be shaping up this way:

C: Jacob Stallings is the reigning 2021 Gold Glove winner and was the big offseason trade acquisition. He’s the starter, with Willians Astudillo and his complete refusal to strike out will probably be the backup here (and at a few other positions, I’m sure.)

1B: After a couple years of scuffling, Jesus Aguilar rebounded to a .261/.329/.459 with 22 HR & 93 RBI last year. He’s got the first base job locked down as long as he keeps that production up.

2B: Jazz Chisholm, Jr. is 24 years old and coming off a strong rookie season - .248/.323/.425 with 18 HR & 23 SB. He’s locked in as one of the teams’ franchise players.

3B: For now, it’s Brian Anderson. He’s mediocre defensively but his bat is enough to keep him in the lineup. He’s probably a better outfielder than infielder, though, and it’s worth keeping an eye on that to see if he can be replaced at the hot corner.

SS: Miguel Rojas is locked in at this point, with not many options in the system ready to replace the 33 year old. He’s costing $5.5M this year and has a team option for $4.5M next year so he’s a good bet to get the lion’s share at short this year.

LF: 2021 World Series MVP Jorge Soler signed as a free agent this offseason, and coming off a .223/.316/.432 with 27 HRs last season with a $12M salary means that he’s locked in at a starting outfield position.

CF: There’s no strong center fielder on this roster - so 24 year old Jesus Sanchez, acquired a couple years ago for Nick Anderson, will hope to build off his .489 slugging percentage in 74 games last year while providing adequate defense in CF. He’s got 60 range so hopefully he can hold it down.

RF: Avisail Garcia was the team’s biggest signing this past offseason, with a 5/$60M contract signed after a .262/.330/.490 with 29 HR for the Brewers last year. Not a ton behind him in the pipeline, so he’ll get some PAs with that contract.

DH: Garrett Cooper is a corner guy (1B/RF/LF) with mediocre defense, so he’s the best bet to stick at DH, with a .451 SLG and 118 OPS+ in parts of 4 seasons with the Marlins - he’s a strong bat and will get the first crack to be a middle of the lineup bat at DH for 2022.

BENCH: Joey Wendle will be a supersub at 2B/3B/SS/LF and will probably drag 400 PAs out of that. Jon Berti plays mostly the same positions as Wendle, with less power and more speed. Willians Astudillo can pass at C when needed, and is a strong contact hitter. Bryan De Le Cruz was acquired from the Astros at the 2021 deadline and put up .296/.356/.427 in 219 PAs down the homestretch and can play all 3 OF positions.

ROTATION:
-Sandy Alcantara is a throwback - a guy who can clear 200 innings with a 4:1 K:BB ratio. He’s the ace of the staff.

-Trever Rogers is the rarest bird - a lefty who throws 96. He had a 2.64 ERA in 133 IP with 157 Ks and only 6 HR allowed. He needs to make the durability jump to just qualifying for the ERA crown this year, but he looks like a keeper.

-If Pablo Lopez is your #3, you’re set up pretty well. Lopez struck out 115 guys in 101.1 IP last year, with a 3.07 ERA and only 2.3 BB/9. His MLB career-high for innings is 111.1, though, so he needs to at least hit the 150-160 innings range before he can be a reliable #3.

-Jesus Luzardo & Elieser Hernandez round out the rotation - Luzardo walks too many guys but doesn’t give up a ton of homers and strikes out a ton of batters, while Hernandez has great control, gives up too many homers, and strikes out less batters. He’s a #5 if healthy. Sixto Sanchez is coming back from a torn labrum and should be ready mid-May, so he potentially knocks one of these guys into the bullpen.


BULLPENS: Tanner Scott is penciled in as the closer to start the year. He’s a flamethrower with amazing movement but mediocre control - the Marlins scouts have him rated 70/70/35 for Stuff/Movement/Control. The control could be an issue, but the hope is that having him pitch in short bursts will be able to paper over the control issues. He’s holding down the fort until Dylan Floro gets rounded into form. Floro is a groundballer with great control - only 2 homers allowed in 64 innings last year, and a fairly solid 3.7 BB/9 & 8.5 K/9.

The rest of the bullpen is a lot of journeymen and never-wases; Cole Sulser came over with Tanner Scott after a 2.70 ERA and only 5 HR allowed in 63.1 IP with a bad Baltimore team in 2021. Richard Bleier doesn’t strike out a ton of guys but has great control and keeps the ball in the yard (only 4 BB and 6 HR allowed in 58 IP last year); he’s a lefty specialist who can not be terrible against righties and has survived the 3 batter minimum. Beyond that it looks like the Anthonys Bass & Bender will be two of the other names to keep an eye on, as they’re the only other relievers rated higher than 40/80.

With the 2022 season just around the corner, Daytona has been advised by the ownership group that one of the main goals for the year is hanging around .500 while upgrading LF; the long-term goal is to try and get back to playoffs within the next 4 years. There’s not too many contracts to try and move this summer - Jesus Aguilar, Anthony Bass, & Miguel Rojas all have team options for 2023 so they might have some value in a trade due to that flexibility, but beyond that it’s mostly guys still with arb rights for the next couple years on the roster. The talent pipeline is still mostly a few years away at this point so it’s going to be a lot of juggling to keep competitive while still staying under the league’s 3rd-lowest budget.

[dannibalcorpse]

Prior to the start of the regular season, GM Jackie Daytona threw out a handful of minor league deals at some players with past MLB success to see if he could build up a little more depth in the upper levels of the organization. The following players are now plying their trade in Pensacola & Jacksonville until a spot opens up for them on the MLB roster:

Brandon Kintzler - the 37-year-old groundballer actually served as Miami’s closer during the 2020 season, going 2-3 with 12 saves and a 2.22 ERA in 24.1 innings. 2021 wasn’t as nice to him, as he spent part of the season with the Phillies, putting up a 6.37 ERA in 29.1 innings before being released in August. The hope is that, with a better infield defense than what the Phillies have been running out, Kintzler will be able to rebuild a little value and possibly be a trade candidate.

Wilfredo Tovar - the 30 year old Tovar has been kicking around the high minors since debuting with the Mets in 2013, with the bulk of his experience being an 88 PA stretch with the Angels in 2019. He’s a mediocre bat with no power but low strikeouts, and is highly rated defensively. Possible super-sub/defensive replacement.

Yoenis Cespedes - the 36 year old former MVP candidate hasn’t played in the majors since an 8 game cameo in the shortened 2020 season, and only has 127 games under his belt dating back to the 2017(!) season. He still has some pop in his bat, though, and his name brand recognition amongst the Cuban community in Miami might be enough to sell some tickets - if he can get his swing back in the minors first. Some might see this as a somewhat cynical signing, but two of the more likely trade chips for the Marlins this summer will be Jesus Aguilar and/or Garrett Cooper - both middle of the lineup bats that Cespedes could aim to replace.

BNN has the Marlins pegged to go 74-88, with the bats not being able to keep up with a fairly decent pitching staff:



With the previews finished, it’s time to see how the Marlins actually fared against the rest of the league - and boy, was it a pleasant surprise!



The team went 13-7 in April, kicking things off with a thrilling extra innings win on Opening Day in San Francisco, and really kicking it into a new gear with an 8-game winning streak that included a 4 game sweep of the Phillies and a 3 game sweep of the Cardinals. Even the losses were pretty easy to deal with - sure, they lost 2 of 3 to the Braves, but losing a pair of one run games, including one in extra innings, to the World Champs? These Marlins are starting to look a little different than last year’s!



The nice thing is seeing those numbers backed up by the performance. They’re a game ahead of their Pythagorean Pace at this point, but that’s not enough to warrant concern. As predicted, the pitching is carrying them - lots of top 5s on that side of the ledger, with a lot of double digit performances on the batting side.



It truly is rough out there - 4 of the 9 lineup regulars in there with a sub-.600 OPS, including Jorge Soler’s .136/.203/.364 line that only gets near any sort of respectability because 5 of his 9 base hits have left the yard. Bench bats Bryan De La Cruz & Joey Wendle have been carrying the team - De La Cruz specifically is going to be making a push for more playing time if the rest of the outfield keeps scuffling this way. Also nice to see Christian Bethancourt, an Opening Day waiver wire pickup, getting a few hits. He was brought in to have a strong defensive backstop backup - Willians Astudillo and his 35 catcher rating is something that needed to be improved upon.



It’s easy to think that focusing on strong defensive catchers like Jacob Stallings and Bethancourt is helping out the staff - because look at that. Tanner Scott is nearly unhittable and only has walked one man in 8 appearances. Steven Okert is nearly as unhittable. Trevor Rogers and Sandy Alcantara are mowing down everyone set in front of them. The back end of the rotation has been rough, with Jesus Luzardo getting lit up in 2 of his 4 starts and Elieser Hernandez giving up too many homers - hopefully the impending activation of Sixto Sanchez from the IL will help shore up the back of the rotation.

Injury-wise - surprisingly quiet. No one missed any significant time in April, something that will surely not continue going forward. As far as notable prospects, the Marlins’ minor league teams have all been pretty middling so far. Top pitching prospect Max Meyer has a 1.93 ERA with 23 Ks in 23.1 IP at Double-A Pensacola; Eury Perez is one of the youngers pitchers in High-A with Beloit and has a 2.66 ERA and has a 22:8 K/BB ratio in his 4 starts and 20.1 IP. The biggest surprise in the minors isn’t a prospect, though - it’s 36 year old Yoenis Cespedes at Triple-A Jacksonville. He’s played 21 out of 23 games for the Jumbo Shrimp so far, putting up a white-hot .300/.330/.589 line with 7 HR & 22 RBI while learning a new position (1B - he’s only rating out as a 40/45 there so far but it’s something!) He’s definitely making a case for a return to the majors sooner than later, especially if some of the bigger bats in the Marlins lineup keep up their abysmal production.

[dannibalcorpse]

May 2nd: Jesus Sanchez goes on the IL with Back Tightness after tweaking something trying to throw out a runner going 1st to 3rd in the 8th inning of an eventual 5-3 loss to the Diamondbacks in 10. He’ll be gone for about 2 weeks, and is in danger of losing his starting job when he gets back - his .162/.269/.235 line in CF is just not enough production. Bryan De La Cruz will step in to CF for the time being, with 26 year old Brian Miller(.306/.404/.367 in 115 Triple-A PAs) coming up to fill the roster spot.

May 22nd: As predicted, Jesus Sanchez came back from the IL to a backup role, with Bryan De La Cruz still raking. Unfortunately, he got his starting job back today as De La Cruz suffered a high ankle sprain tracking down an Oscar Mercado line drive in a 4-0 loss to the Braves. Bryan had been leading off, hitting .380/.430/.576 with 3 HR & 17 RBI in 101 PAs, so losing him is going to hurt. Brian Miller is back on the shuttle from Jacksonville to be the 4th/5th outfielder again.

May 29th: Another blow to the lineup as Jazz Chisholm Jr. will miss 2 weeks with back soreness, aggravated on a defensive play during a wild 13-11 win over the Braves. Joey Wendle will slide into the starting 2B role, with the surprising Wilfredo Tovar (.293/.337/.468 with a professional career-best 9 HR in 206 Triple-A PAs) having his contract selected to come to Miami and take over Wendle’s super-sub role.

May 30th: Not Miami news, but still notable:



Torkelson becomes the 19th player all-time, and first since JD Martinez in 2017, to have a 4 homer game. Congrats to him!

Miami kept it up in May, going 17-10 for the month to lift their overall record to 30-17:



The bats came alive, as you can tell by a few football scores up there, and ended on a high note with a 6 game winning streak that included grabbing both games against their in-state rivals in Tampa Bay before going up to Truist Park and returning the favor from the week before with a road sweep of the Braves. The stats continue to show this isn’t really a mirage:



The pitching took a minor step back this month but still has a ton of top-5 placements; the bats crept up a little more towards league average with a strong May. The Pythagorean Pace shows that the Marlins have been a little lucky - two games up with their real life record, possibly aided by a 5-2 record in extra innings and an 11-7 split in one-run games. Still - this team looks like a contending team through the first third of the season. They’ll need to keep it up because the NL East has been a true dogfight - even at 30-17, the Marlins are in 3rd behind the 34-18 Mets and 33-18(!) Nationals - and the defending champs in Atlanta are still in the mix at 25-25. Hell, even the Phillies aren’t all that far off the pace at 24-27. This division is going to be tough for whoever pulls it out at the end of the year.



Bryan De La Cruz continues to be the engine making the Marlins go, as you can see from his .375/.417/.536 line in his truncated May. Some of the other bats that struggled in April started to pick it up, too - Jesus Aguilar had a strong May, as did Avisail Garcia and Jazz Chisholm Jr. The most confounding player has to be Jorge Soler - he’s striking out a ton still, and barely hitting the ball, but when he makes contact that ball is traveling. 12 of his 27 base hits have left the yard, and that power surge has kept him at a nearly league-average OPS+(99) despite his .180 batting average and .267 OBP. Manager Don Mattingly dropped him to 7th in the order to take a little less pressure off of him, and the hope is he’ll continue being a power threat in the bottom third of the order.



As the above schedule showed, the pitching suffered a little bit this month - most surprising was staff ace Sandy Alcantara putting up a 7.90 ERA in 5 starts. Pablo Lopez continues to churn along a very solid season, though, and Trevor Rogers came up big with 44 Ks in 33.1 IP over his 6 starts. Elieser Hernandez continues having issues with the longball, though, and with Sixto Sanchez making his 3rd rehab start on May 30th, his time in the rotation is seemingly about to come to an end.

June is going to be a real decider for the Marlins - there’s not a ton of help coming from the farm if they want to make a playoff push (their best Triple-A bats are Yoenis Cespedes, Lewin Diaz, & JJ Bleday - all 1B/corner OF/DH types) so it’s going to start to get realllll interesting in these parts come July.

[dannibalcorpse]

June 10th: Claimed Tom Cosgrove off waivers from the Padres. He was added to their 40-man last year and was just a roster crunch casualty - they’ve had a ton of injuries that necessitated some call-ups, and he was the odd man out. He’s a lefty with starter stuff but not starter stamina - a 55 fastball & 65/70 curveball with a serviceable change. He’ll be a reliever with some length in the bullpen.

June 13th: Jazz Chisholm Jr was activated from the IL, but Jesus Aguilar took his place on it - Aguilar’s been nursing a quadriceps strain for a few games now and the time off will help him get over it. Chisholm resumes his play at 2B, Garrett Cooper will slide from DH to 1B to cover Aguilar, and some combo of Joey Wendle & Willians Astudillo will cover DH for the next couple weeks.

June 26th: Brian Anderson was hit on the hand by a Carlos Carrasco pitch in an eventual 6-5 win over the Mets. Unfortunately, his thumb has been fractured and he’ll be out for 5-6 weeks. More roster shuffling commences - this time, Joey Wendle will slide over to cover 3B while the organization’s #5 prospect JJ Bleday will get his first MLB call-up to cover DH while the team waits for some bats to recover. Jesus Aguilar still has lingering quad issues but is hopefully only a week or two away, so it’ll probably be a quick stay in the majors for Bleday.

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So remember how Jackie Daytona was on the fence at the end of May, waiting to see how the next month would play out before he chose a path for the deadline?

Well, the team definitely made the choice for him this month:



A 9-18 June “highlighted” by a 12 game losing streak, being swept by the Nationals, Astros, & Phillies in succession - bookended by losing 3 of 4 to start the streak against the Giants and losing 3 of 4 against the Mets after breaking the streak. They did a decent job closing out the month with three straight series wins, but the team really came back down to earth in June - and the numbers back it up:



The offense regressed back down into one of the bottom feeders in the NL, and the pitchers struggled to - especially their starters. The pluses are the bullpen keeping it together and the team’s ability to limit walks and home runs - these are things a young team can build off of!

Checking in on June’s stats:



Jorge Soler started turning it around - he drew some walks and actually got on base at a solid clip while maintaining his strong power numbers. Willians Astudillo also knocked the ball around pretty well in his opportunities - even with minimal power, he’s putting up solid numbers (and only 1 K in 49 PAs!) Avisail Garcia really fell apart this month, and Brian Anderson wasn’t doing much before getting hurt. There’s really not a ton of offense here and it’s getting to the point where Jackie Daytona is going to have to start moving on from some of these guys.



The bullpen has been solid - Dylan Floro put up solid numbers, Tanner Scott has been a revelation at the back end of the ‘pen, and even new addition Tom Cosgrove put up some solid numbers. The starters really struggled - Pablo Lopez & Trevor Rogers couldn’t keep the ball in the yard in their starts, and Sandy Alcantara had a rough month with an 0fer in his 5 starts. Sixto Sanchez replaced Elieser Hernandez in the rotation and was better than his numbers suggest - he got rocked in his first two starts back but he put up 14.1 scoreless innings in his last 2 starts before the calendar flipped.

The hard part is there’s really not a ton of options on the farm to bring up as reinforcements. Max Meyer has a 3.67 ERA and 9.5 K/9 in Double-A, but you’d want a guy to dominate that level before skipping him up to the big leagues. JJ Bleday had 20 HRs in Triple-A and is getting a chance to show what he’s got while injuries bang up the main club. And beyond the top prospects, there’s a couple of older depth guys like Charles Labanc (.325/.378/604 with 10 HR in 177 PAs) and Bryson Brigman (.361/.448/602 with 6 HRs in 126 PAs) tearing up Triple-A, but those sample sizes are small enough to give any GM pause.

Even with a winning record, it feels like these Marlins are stuck in a spot where they have to sell. It might feel odd to say that while they’re still currently in the 3rd wild card spot on July 1st, but unless the bats can start picking it up, this team just doesn’t look like it has the horses to make an October run just yet.

[dannibalcorpse]

New player time!

July 1st International Signing: Jesus Meza, $2.5M Bonus



Meza’s defensive profile feels like it’s going to limit him to 2B - unless his arm develops a little more, he looks like a fringey SS to me. But those contact & power ratings, plus decent speed, profile as a strong offensive 2B. With the Marlins being tight on cash, there was no way of getting any of the top of the class guys with their $5M signing bonuses, so getting a 70 potential prospect in Meza at exactly half the IFA cap is a big win for Miami. With him already passing his 17th birthday, it’s thought he’ll be able to keep up in the DSL down the stretch this summer so he’ll go straight there instead of incubating in the International Complex.

2022 Amatuer Draft Results
1-6: Zach Neto, SS/3B, Campbell University



Neto played shortstop in college, but profiles more as a 3B in the majors. Solid bat-to-ball skills with good power - more doubles than homers, but the bat will play. He’s advanced for his age and will probably start in full-season ball with a hopeful ETA of late 2023.

3-85: Ray Bermudez, OF, American Heritage HS



High school players are always tough to project out, but Bermudez has a strong contact skill with a good eye and good discipline. Not a ton of power, and his defensive profile will need a little work to stick in center, but he’s got some strong upside.

4-122: Trenton Shaw, RHP, DeSoto HS



Solid fastball/slider, with the potential to have a plus curveball/changeup combo. High-school pitchers are always a big gamble, but a 4th rounder with 1st/2nd round potential is a gamble to take.

5-142: Jake Brooks, RHP, UCLA



Brooks is your typical college pitcher draftee. The ceiling is a little lower, but the floor is much higher - he’s not too far from being able to pass as a 5th starter, with a little more ceiling above him. He pitches to contact and will need a strong defense behind him, but that control will help get him to the majors if he keeps putting it all together.

Miami’s 2nd round pick, Sal Stewart, is a high school 3B prospect with 75 contact and 70 power potential, but Miami doesn’t have enough money to pry him out of his commitment to Vanderbilt. They’ll get a compensatory 2nd rounder in the 2023 draft.

July news:

July 9th: Bryan De La Cruz returned to the IL with a herniated disc in his back. The prognosis is 4 weeks off before he can get back into baseball activities; Jesus Sanchez will return to playing center every day and 25 year old JD Orr will get the call up from Pensacola. Orr hasn’t done much with Double-A pitching (.184/.282/.263 in 131 PAs with 10 SBs) but the injury bug has also bitten Jacksonville’s outfield - plus, it makes more sense to bring up a guy like Orr to grab the spare ABs every week instead of a true prospect (like JJ Bleday) who could be getting everyday playing time in Triple-A.

July 13th: This is a big blow - after having to be removed from the July 10th loss against the Pirates, Jazz Chisholm Jr was diagnosed with a broken kneecap and his 2022 season is over, after a .237/.335/.390 line with 5 HR, 35 RBI, and 7 SB with a 105 OPS+. Jon Berti is now your everyday second baseman, and Yoenis Cespedes (.266/.307/.502 with 14 HRs in 266 Triple-A PAs) will get his first MLB action since 2020 as a corner OF/DH substitute and first man up if Jesus Aguilar or Garrett Cooper get traded.

July 16th: Traded RHP Anthony Bass & 1B Marcus Chiu to Boston for 2B Yolmer Sanchez & OF Gabriel Guerrero

Anthony Bass is 34 and has a team option for $3M for 2023 - he’s probably too old for the current Marlins core, even if they’re overachieving currently. He’s put up a 1.54 ERA in 41 IP with 17 BB & 48 Ks. Analytics thought he was getting a little lucky, though, and probably was more of a 3.00ish ERA guy. Boston happily picked him up and sent back a strong defensive 2B with a better track record at the plate than anyone currently capable of playing the keystone in Miami, plus Guerrero, a post-hype prospect with an okay bat and strong defense in the outfield. Chiu is a 25 year old, 1B-only prospect hitting .221 in Double-A who helped the deal get over the finish line for the Red Sox.

July 18th: Traded C Christian Bethancourt to Cleveland for UT Ernie Clement

Bethancourt was that waiver wire pickup around Opening Day but didn’t pan out as a backup catcher (.158/.163/.211 in 80 PAs). Willians Astudillo isn’t a good defensive catcher but he can hold it down in the second half. Clement, meanwhile, fills in the utility hole created by pushing Jon Berti & Joey Wendle into the everyday lineup.

July 20th: Claimed RHP Philips Valdez off waivers from Boston

Valdez was waived off the Red Sox’ 40-man roster after the Anthony Bass acquisition. He’s a few years younger than Bass (30), with 70-grade movement and a strong predilection for ground balls. The thing that’s kept him from success in the big leagues so far is his control - if he can get that sorted out, he’ll be a high-leverage reliever with huge upside.

July 24th: Sixto Sanchez came out of his start early with a sore elbow, and is headed to the 15-day IL out of an abundance of precaution. Sanchez has been pretty steady for the Marlins since coming back from his injury this past May, but Elieser Hernandez has been strong in Triple-A and will get another shot at sticking in the MLB this time.

July 26th: Traded SS Miguel Rojas to Los Angeles (AL) for IF Luis Rengifo, OF Orlando Martinez, and RHP Mark Appel

Rojas is 33, owed $5.5M this year with a team option for $4.5M next, and has been struggling this year - .234/.303/.296 with just OK defense. He goes west to the Angels, who send back 25 year old Luis Rengifo (.326/.397/.425 in Triple-A this year), 24 year old Orlando Martinez (.281/.353/.542 with 12 HR in 171 PAs in Triple-A), and 31 year old Mark Appel (former 1st overall pick hoping to rebound after a short retirement). Rengifo will get some run to audition as next year’s SS as the season winds down.

July 27th: Traded 1B Jesus Aguilar to Tampa Bay for LHP Jacob Lopez, RHP Calvin Faucher, and UT Matt Dyer

Aguilar (32) was the Marlins’ lone All-Star this season, but his salary is going to be tough to justify. $7.3M this year, with a team option for $8.5M next year for a guy hitting .266/.340/.448 with 11 HR in 285 PAs. He goes to the Rays for a trio of prospects, headlined by #68 overall prospect Jacob Lopez, a lefty with a 70 curveball, 65 slider, and 60 fastball. Lopez had a 4.46 ERA in 10 starts for Triple-A Durham, with 59 Ks and 24 BB in 68.2 innings pitched. Faucher is a righty groundball pitcher with a strong sinker/cutter pairing that plays better in relief than starting, which Tampa had bounced him between this year at Triple-A. He comes over with a 4.38 ERA and 108 Ks in 74 IP. Dyer is a super sub who came to Tampa for Rich Hill last season; he’s struggled in his transition from High-A to Double-A this year but the 4th rounder from 2020 profiles as a righty Joey Wendle-type.

July 2022 Record: 14-14

The Marlins held serve for the most part this month, keeping their heads above .500 while starting to fade out of the playoff races.



A tough run into the All-Star break threatened to drop the Marlins below .500 on the year, but they came back with a couple series wins before the Mets called their number walking into the end of July.



The bats are still bad, the pitching however is creeping back towards top 5 in a lot of categories. Their Pythagorean pace more or less held steady, as they’re now 3 games on the lucky side of the ledger.



Long list of guys getting into games for July, with all the trades and injuries causing a ton of churn. Some of the recent call-ups have come out of the gate hot - even with limited PAs, it’s nice to see that 4 of the top 5 batters by OPS for July are guys new to the team. Yoenis Cespedes is probably the most surprising of them all, as he has shown his former MVP-like pace in his 36 ABs since his recall. Jorge Soler continues being a confounding bat, as he struggles to make contact but sends it to the moon when he makes some. Catcher is becoming a problem - even though Bethancourt is gone, Astudillo hasn’t done much with the PAs he’s been getting as a backup, and Jacob Stallings has been pretty middling at the dish.

Year-to-date:



I feel like I’ve barely talked about Avisail Garcia this season, and that’s not entirely heartening for a guy who was Miami’s biggest free-agent signing last season. He hasn’t been awful, just aggressively mediocre. Need to see more out of him as the second half progresses to justify that contract.



The rotation stepped up big-time in July. Jesus Luzardo, Pablo Lopez, and even the Sixto Sanchez/Elieser Herenandez combo at #4 all had an amazing month of July. Trevor Rogers struggled some, but was mostly unlucky. Speaking of unlucky, Sandy Alcantara dealing with a .378 BABIP is making it tough for him to put up good numbers, as his ghastly 6.25 ERA for July can attest to.



The bullpen has really been a strength for the Marlins this year - Anthony Bass was shutting everyone down before his chips were cashed in, but the Marlins were able to do that because Dylan Floro & Tanner Scott have had the 8th & 9th innings locked down. Tom Cosgrove has been incredibly solid since being picked up on waivers - striking out a batter per inning, keeping his walks tho, and working to a 2.41 ERA in 22 games. On the other hand, Richard Bleier has been a major disappointment, despite Don Mattingly’s insistence on throwing him out there constantly (he’s appeared in 49 of the Marlins’ 102 games so far!) Love the low walks and the lower homers, but he hasn’t been able to limite solid contact and keep the ball out of play. Cole Sulser is also another disappointment - after a solid 2021, his 4.56 ERA in 39.1 IP is really a step back. He’ll need to start making it happen if he wants to keep his job going forward.

[dannibalcorpse]

August 13th: Signed C Jonathan Lucroy to a minor-league contract. Lucroy had been kicking around the Astros organization this year, getting into 6 major league games, mostly as a defensive replacement, and going 1-4 with a walk and a strikeout at the plate. His leadership will be a plus down the stretch for a Jacksonville team trying to make a playoff push, and with him already announcing his retirement earlier in the year, he might get a few games with the big league club on his way out.

August 21st: Yoenis Cespedes signs a 1 year, $1.5M extension - Cespedes signed as a minor league free agent and hit well enough in Triple-A to get the call up to the big leagues after Jesus Aguilar was traded. Now, he’ll be locked in as a 1B/DH/corner OF power bat for 2023. Worst case scenario, his contract is cheap enough that you’re not going to be upset if he turns back into a pumpkin and gets hurt again next year. He’s hitting .284/.349/.537 with 6 HR & 18 RBI in 109 PAs at the time of the extension.

August 22nd: Not a transaction, but just wanted to note for some fun foreshadowing: Cespedes goes 3-5 with a double, 2 HRs, & 3 RBI in the first game after signing his extension.

August 23rd: Yoenis Cespedes is placed on the 10-day IL with back stiffness. It’s a playable injury, but I know this guy’s history and with the team falling under .500 for literally the first time all season, it was better to play it safe. JJ Bleday will get the call to cover DH while Cespedes rests up his back, and Lewin Diaz will cover 1B against righties for him. Bleday was most likely getting a call-up when rosters expand on September 1st, so this is just getting him here a week early.

August 29th: Claimed Mitch White off waivers from the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers tried to sneak White through waivers when they called up Caleb Ferguson, but Miami placed a claim on him. White is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA this season, logging 40 innings over 22 relief appearances with the Dodgers. He’s got a 44:10 K:BB ratio, and only 6 homers allowed. He’s been a swingman for the Dodgers, and will probably stick in relief this year with the Marlins seeing as there’s not much time to stretch him out - but most expect him to get a shot at the rotation in Spring Training 2023.

August Record: 12-16 (65-65 overall, 10.5 GB of 1st in the NL East & 4.5 GB of last wild-card)



Back-to-back weekends against the Dodgers? Not a recipe for a fun month, as Miami lost 5 out of 6 games against LA, with 3 of those 5 losses being double-digit beatdowns. They did manage to sweep the 4 game Battle of Florida for 2022, though, so bragging rights for the Marlins over the Rays.



The stats are backing up that this is a pretty bad team playing slightly over their heads. They’re 5 games ahead of their Pythagorean Pace, which doesn’t seem like a lot until you see that they should be 60-70 based on their run differential - and 60-70 looks wayyyy worse than 65-65. The pitching is still sticking around the middle of the pack, but they’re last in nearly every major batting category in the NL. They’re doing well at avoiding strikeouts and stealing bases though! They also need to really do some work on that defense next season - that zone rating is atrocious.



The August stats back it up, but there are some bright spots to highlight - Jesus Sanchez seems like he’s finally getting it in gear this season, with a hot August that saw him bat .340 with a .922 OPS. Yoenis Cespedes was tearing the cover off the ball before hitting the IL, and has been a pleasant surprise for a guy picked off the scrap heap. Brian Anderson didn’t hit a lot but hit them far, with 11 of his 16 base hits in August being of the extra base variety. Meanwhile, the veterans with pedigrees continue to struggle, with Jorge Soler, Avisail Garcia, and Garrett Cooper all having miserable months. Luis Rengifo also struggled mightily once coming over from the Angels, and may already be out of runway in his audition to replace Miguel Rojas as the team’s starting SS.



Pablo Lopez continues to be a bright spot in this rotation, with another solid month in August. Trever Rogers was right there with him, matching his ERA in one less start. The back end of the bullpen continues to flourish with Tanner Scott and Dylan Floro having another great month. Jesus Luzardo, though, got roughed up in all of his 5 starts and Tom Cosgrove pitched himself right off the major league roster with a string of bad appearances to end the month - his last 5 outings consisted of 5.2 IP, 17 hits allowed, 15 runs(all earned), 3 walks, and 8 strikeouts - and somehow only 2 home runs allowed. He’ll get some stretch run time with the Jumbo Shrimp to see if he can get himself right for next season.

[dannibalcorpse]

SEPTEMBER 1 CALL-UPS
-SS Jose Devers: Devers has been on the 40-man roster all season, and the combination of the trade of Miguel Rojas & Luis Rengifo’s struggles at the plate have given him the month of September to show what he’s got. The 22-year-old had a short run in the bigs last year, but will get a longer leash in 2022 after putting up a .278/.369/.403 with 11 HR & 42 RBI in 526 Double-A PAs. He’s solid with the glove (65 range, 60 error/arm/DP) and has some speed (15/18 stealing this year) but not much power (he’s scouted as 25/80 for power.)

-OF Brian Miller: Miller has been the team’s unofficial 6th outfielder this year - he’s gotten the call each time one of the main outfielders has gone on the IL this year, going 15-53 with 1 HR & 3 RBIs, good for a .283/.309/.377 line with a perfect 7/7 on steals. He hit .278/.352/.371 in 400 Triple-A PAs this year, with 4 HR, 23 RBI, and 21/29 SB.

-RHP Brandon Kintzler: None of the higher-level relievers really shone this season, so the 37 year old Kintzler gets the nod after putting up a 1.26 ERA in 14.1 Triple-A innings. He battled some injuries this year, or else he would have been up sooner, but he’ll get a chance to show if he still has big league gas left in the tank.

-RHP Mark Appel: Again, more of a “vibe check” type of selection - he’s struck out 28 batters in 26.2 IP across three minor league teams this year, but also walked 16. He’s 31 and not a prospect anymore, but just the type of reclamation project the Marlins are fond of. He’ll get a chance to show if he’s got any of the juice left that made him the 1st overall pick back in 2013.

September 29th: Incredibly frustrating news - Pablo Lopez exited a stellar start in last night’s win against the Mets after 6 innings, and was diagnosed today with a torn labrum. Expected recovery time will be 8 months, meaning he’ll be looking to come back around Memorial Day 2023. Lopez was the strongest pitcher of the staff down the stretch this season, and trying to find a replacement for him, even temporary, is going to be tough.

September/October Record: 13-19 (78-84 overall, 5th in NL East, 14 GB)




Really went out with a whimper - three straight shutouts against the Braves. Overall, I’m pretty happy with 78-84 - BNN had the Marlins pegged for 74-88 at the beginning of the season, so getting a bit above that is nice. The fact that the team didn’t dip below .500 until late August is also something to hang their hat on - it seems that manager Don Mattingly will be coming back for at least one more year in OOTP.



The roadmap to getting back into contention is crystal clear - this team needs more bats, and better defense. Not necessarily the easiest things to upgrade, but it’s good to be able to know what you need to focus on.

Just gonna do end-of-season stats instead of doing September & October monthlies:



The true breakout this year was definitely Bryan De La Cruz - .292/.355/.449 with 11 HR & 38 RBI in 85 games. He’ll have a lock on one of the starting OF positions for 2023, no doubt. Yoenis Cespedes was another nice story, with a .249/.303/.470 with 13 HR in 63 games - if he can keep up that production over 100-110 games next season, his deal will be an absolute steal at $1.5M. Just a ton of underperformance on the rest of the roster, though - Brian Anderson really fell off a cliff this year, Garrett Cooper was very mediocre, Avisail Garcia did not look like a $12M man, and Jacob Stallingsregressed into a single hitter - only 23 extra base hits in his 125 games was a big surprise. Jesus Sanchez didn’t take the leap many thought he would this season, and of course losing Jazz Chisholm Jr for more than half the season didn’t help the lineup - the lack of power was obvious for the rest of the season.



On the mound, there’s more to work with. Pablo Lopez looked great in his 31 starts, and he’ll be missed to start that 2023 campaign. Trevor Rogerswas excellent - 194 Ks in 178 IP with a 3.44 ERA and great control. Sixto Sanchez had some rough patches, but that’s to be expected coming back from major surgery - even if it was a loss, he ended on a high note with his last start being an 8 IP - 7 H - 1 R/ER - 1 BB - 13 K gem against the Braves in a 1-0 loss. Sandy Alcantara struggled at times but was a solid #3-4 starter, but Jesus Luzardo just didn’t have the stamina to be a reliable #5 - he may be a guy to replace for 2023.

The bullpen had some bright spots, specifically in Dylan Floro and Tanner Scott. Floro was a workhorse, trotting out of the pen 75 times to put up a sparkling 2.08 ERA in 78 IP. He only allowed 3 HR all year and showed good control on top of that. Scott was nearly as good - striking out 11.6 batters per 9 innings while bringing his control into better focus - dropping his BB/9 from 6.2 in 2021 to 4.5 this year. The rest of the bullpen was adequate, if nothing special - Steven Okert was a little unlucky with BABIP but kept the ball in the park and struck out a good number of guys, but the rest of it seemed interchangeable. Finding guys to bridge from the starters to the pair of guys in the 8th/9th should be a focus for the offseason as well.

Just for fun, let’s check in on the guys we traded away in July:

Jesus Aguilar hit for power in Tampa Bay and not much else - .218/.311/.474 with 16 HRs in 241 PAs. The Rays won the AL East with a 93-69 record.

Miguel Rojas really turned around his rough season after his trade to the Angels. Despite missing 4 weeks with plantar fasciitis, Rojas hit .363/.402/.522 with 10 2B, 2 HR, & 11 RBI in 122 PAs. The Angels finished 85-77 and were the 3rd wild card in the American League.

Anthony Bass came back down to earth a bit in Boston, putting up a 4.67 ERA with a 22:12 K:BB ratio in 27 IP for the Red Sox. Boston finished 85-77 and was also one of the AL Wild Card teams.

Overall, there’s an interesting foundation to work with here. Not sure what moves will be made in the offseason just yet - there’s definitely obvious places to focus on, but it’s going to be another season of budget shopping for the Marlins. It is worth noting - fan interest grew from 36 to 53 this season, so while the fan loyalty is still “Pathetic”, it’s trending in the right direction. The Marlins actually averaged 23,722 tickets sold every night, nearly 8,000 more bodies in the building every single night. We’ll have to wait and see, but if even a little bit of that trickles down to the payroll budget, it’ll give the Marlins some great flexibility this offseason.

[dannibalcorpse]

The 2022 MLB Playoffs were a wild ride and ended with a Freeway Series:



The Dodgers won their second World Series in the last 3 years with a 4-1 series win over the Angels. Cody Bellinger shook off a second straight rough regular season by going 7-16 with 2 HR & 8 RBI in the 5 games to win Series MVP.

Notable Retirements:
-Albert Pujols calls it a career after putting up a .296/.373/.539 line with 3,339 hits and 682 HRs. He’ll surely be in Cooperstown in summer 2028 celebrating his enshrinement.

-Miguel Cabrera will likely be joining Albert, as he finished his career with 3,058 hits, 509 HRs, and a .307/.384/.525 line.

-Zack Greinke is more of a tough call - he’s got some of the best numbers for *this* era but they don’t really stand up against the legends of the game. 242-180, with a 3.49 ERA and 2,919 Ks in 3,280 innings and 562 games(520 GS). His 67.8 WAR might be enough to get the newer voters to put him in, but he’s not a slam-dunk like the first two big names retiring this year.

-Justin Verlander is a surprising retirement - foregoing another year of $25M after a very good 2022 season. The 39 year old was 12-10 with a 3.62 ERA in 30 GS, striking out 191 in 199 IP, good for 4.2 WAR. He finishes his MLB run with a 238-139 record, a 3.25 ERA, and 3,204 strikeouts in 3,187 IP over 484 games (all starts). Career WAR is 72.7, so he’s a little closer than Greinke in many people’s eyes.

Almost as surprising as Verlander’s retirement was the absolute postseason bloodbath in the GM ranks - Brian Cashman (NYY), Jerry Dipoto (SEA), Mike Hazen (ARI), Al Avila (DET), & David Forst (OAK) were all given pink slips and their former teams will be looking for fresh perspectives in their front offices going forward.

Now, back to the more Marlins-focused goings on with a quick rundown at what the Marlins will be looking at going into the offseason:

C: Jacob Stallings struggled on offense but is a world-class defender. He’ll still be affordable ($3.9M projected in arbitration) and there’s not much ready in the system, so he’s in.

1B: Probably a position to upgrade. Garrett Cooper is a non-tender after a rough season (.231/.296/.388 in 441 PAs), Lewin Diaz doesn’t look ready(.192/.264/.285 in 130 PAs), and Yoenis Cespedes is 36, fragile, and tough to rely on for 120+ games despite good numbers (.249/.303/.470 with 13 HR in 238 PAs.)

2B: Jazz Chisholm, Jr. should be fully healed from his broken kneecap for spring training and he’s not going anywhere.

3B: Brian Anderson is another assumed non-tender (.214/.309/.393), so here’s another spot the Marlins should be looking to upgrade

SS: Man, this infield is rough beyond Jazz! The top two names on the depth chart both had rough times in limited sample sizes: Luis Rengifo was .165/.220/.257 in 119 PAs after coming over from the Angels; Jose Devers was called up for September and was just as bad, going .170/.243/.213 in 103 PAs. There’s no money to play at the top of the SS free agent market so there’s a chance that these guys are a platoon heading into 2023.

OF: The Marlins have some good young decent options but no real great homes for them Bryan De La Cruz broke through to a .292/.355/.449 with 11 HRs in 368 PAs, so he’s got a spot; Jesus Sanchez struggled mightily through the first half of the year but had a decent enough second half to give one more shot to. On the veteran side, Avisail Garcia has at least 3 years left at $12M per, and Jorge Soler led the team with 25 HR in 2022 so he’ll probably stick at DH if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out.

Bench: Joey Wendle is getting expensive for a guy without a home - his best spot is 2B but he’s not displacing Jazz; his arm and bat aren’t strong enough for 3B or SS. He might be moved, especially since Wilfredo Tovar is on hand to be a better glove (with a worse bat). A new backup C will be needed since Willians Astudillo is sure to be non-tendered. Brian Miller might stick as a 4th/5th OF after a solid .301/.338/.397 in 77 PAs while going 9/9 on SB.

Rotation:
Trevor Rogers (10-10, 3.44 ERA, 33 GS, 178 IP, 55 BB, 194 K)
Sandy Alcantara (12-15, 4.46 ERA, 33 GS, 203.1 IP, 69 BB, 189 K)
Pablo Lopez (12-6, 3.13 ERA, 31 GP, 178.1 IP, 48 BB, 142 K) - Lopez will probably be out til mid-May with his torn Labrum but will be a #2-3 upon his return
Sixto Sanchez (2-9, 4.33 ERA, 19 GS, 114.1 IP, 40 BB, 93 K)

The 5th starter will come out of Jesus Luzardo, Mitch White, or Jacob Lopez - with #41 prospect per OSA Max Meyer looming in Triple-A as the next man up.

Bullpen:
Tanner Scott (2-5, 37 SV, 3.16 ERA, 65 G, 62.2 IP, 31 BB, 81 K) & Dylan Floro (8-7, 6 SV, 2.08 ERA, 75 G, 78 IP, 26 BB, 65 K) are your linchpins in the ‘pen. Beyond them, a lot of non-tenders & trade bait - one of the starters who loses out on the #5 spot could transition into a relief arm, and Phllips Valdez settled down (4.64 ERA in 21.1 IP) after his waiver claim, so he could be a middle relief arm. Veteran relievers signed in Triple-A who could contribute include Grant Dayton, Brad Boxberger, or Louis Head, as well.

There's not a ton of money here to make these things work - GM Jackie Daytona is going to have his work cut out for him trying to improve this team up from 78 wins. Lots of minor league deals towards the end of the preseason, I'm sure, along with trying to find ways to get players other teams are trying to move on from without absorbing too much additional salary.

[CBLCardinals]

Enjoying following along!!

Small market teams bring lots of different challenges for sure

[dannibalcorpse]

With the arbitration period starting, it was time for Jackie Daytona to see what he could do to try and build on what most observers agree was a mildly optimistic 78-84 season.

Bruce Sherman was more or less happy with the season - he wanted to keep it near .500, which is just about where the Marlins finished. He wants more of the same, with more butts in the seats for 2023, and would like to see the team do a little better in the batting average department. The good news is he’s raised the budget, giving Jackie Daytona about $89M in payroll this offseason, after running about $75M in salaries for 2022. Progress is progress, can’t complain about that!

On to the transactions!

-November 6th: Jorge Soler declined to exercise his opt-out, guaranteeing himself a $15M salary for 2023 with a $9M player option for 2024. He hit .223/.332/.436 with 25 HR & 76 RBI in 145 games last season.

-November 6th: The first big domino of the Marlins offseason tipped when they traded Joey Wendle back to the Tampa Bay Rays.



Wendle was nothing very special for the Marlins this year - .254/.312/.353, good for an 88 OPS+ with 4 HR & 28 RBI in 457 PAs. He was due at least a modest raise from his $3.5M salary in arbitration this year, so he was an easy choice to move out. His versatility will be a plus for the Rays, who always seem to be churning out a steady stream of Ben Zobrist types.

Coming down I-75 to Miami are a trio of mid/low-tier prospects. The headliner is righty reliever Colby White, a 24 year old who sits 95-97 with a plus fastball and an elite slider. He’s coming off TJ surgery that will keep him out until May at this point, but had progressed to a small cup of coffee in AAA before his injury - it’s very likely he can make his MLB debut before the end of 2023.

Also acquired from Tampa were C Luis Trevino & IF Tristan Gray - Trevino is depth with a slight chance of MLB time as a catcher, after going .276/.330/480 with 5 HR in 111 PAs. Gray is a dollar store version of Joey Wendle - a lefty bat with experience at all 4 infield spots with the ability to play on the grass if you need him. He split 2022 between Double-A & Triple-A, putting up a .223/.329/.410 line with 14 HR in 357 PAs. Both of those guys are a little bit of a longshot to make the bigs, but they give some stronger depth in the upper minors.

AWARDS:
-Jacob Stallings won his second consecutive Gold Glove at catcher. Probably explains why the fan interest spiked a little after he signed his extension for 2023 despite putting up a .220/.289/.289 with 2 HR in 486 PAs this past year.

-Dinelson Lamet won reliever of the year, but Dylan Floro finished in a tie for 4th with 2 first-place votes. Tanner Scott also received a 3rd place vote. Pablo Lopez got a couple down-ballot Cy Young Votes as well, finishing 7th in that race behind unanimous winner Corbin Burnes.

November 30: A huge trade between the Marlins and Cincinnati came down the wire today, with 8 players looking for new addresses.



The Marlins sent out to Cincinnati:
LHP Richard Bleier (4-4, 2 SV, 4.67 ERA in 73 G/96.1 IP in 2022)
RHP Elieser Hernandez (7-2, 4.45 ERA in 12 GS/64.2 IP with 62:13 K:BB ratio & 15 HR allowed)
LHP Sean Guenther (1-2, 4.56 ERA in 37 G/23.1 IP with 29:12 K:BB ratio in Triple-A Jacksonville)
UT Jon Berti (.262/.362/.325, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 12/19 SB in 222 PAs)
RHP Patrick Monteverde (1-3, 8.13 ERA in 31 IP in Rookie Ball - big stat is 56:24 K:BB ratio in those 31 innings)

The Marlins received:
3B Mike Moustakas (.282/.341/.497 with 31 HR, 113 RBI in 668 PAs for Cincy in 2022) - the Reds will also retain 20% of his 2023 salary. Brian Anderson hit .214/.309/.393 with 14 HRs last year with mediocre defense, so he was non-tendered - leaving a perfect hole for Moose to walk through. He’ll cost $14.4M this season with a club option at $20M if he can repeat his 2022 performance next season.

RHP Alexis Diaz: Plus-plus fastball & slider but limited to 8 innings combined between Triple-A & MLB last year. Losing Bleier & Hernandez from the pitching staff creates a need for a few more bodies, and he’ll get a shot at seeing if he can do a halfway decent imitation of his big brother Edwin.

C Chris Okey: Not just a throw-in - the 27 year old Okey has bounced around the minors the past few years not getting a ton of playing time, but he’ll have a shot in the Marlins org. He’s got iffy contact but MLB-ready power paired with a good eye, plus defense, and great leadership. At the very least he has a shot at getting ABs as the first catcher up in case of injury.

With free agency just around the corner, most of the decisions the Marlins made on their arbitration-eligible players made sense - RHPs Pablo Lopez, Dylan Floro, C Jacob Stallings, & LHP Tanner Scott were locks to come back, while LHP Jesus Luzardo was cheap enough to bring back ($1.1M). The non-tenders were pretty much the players you'd expect: 3B Brian Anderson & 1B/OF Garrett Cooper were getting more expensive and hadn't been very productive in 2022, so they were easy to move on from; UT Willians Astudillo was a man without a home defensively and without a bat big enough to carry that deficiency; and relievers Brandon Kintzler, Cole Sulser, & Shawn Armstrong were varying levels of ineffective.

[dannibalcorpse]

With every rebuilding squad, you’re only going to be as good as the prospects you’re developing. With some downtime in the darkest part of the baseball calendar, what better time to get to know one of the less-heralded prospects in the Miami Marlins organization?

Dominican-born righty George Soriano has been a fast-rising name in the Marlins’ pipeline after a 2022 season that saw him take a major leap in development. In fact, he wound up making the jump all the way up to #41 on OSA’s end of year Top 100 Prospects list after not even making the Marlins’ Top 20 prospects at the beginning of the season.

Originally signed as an international free agent in the 2015 signing period for a lower signing bonus, Soriano spent his age-16 season in the DSL holding his own - 56 Ks in 55.2 IP with only 3 HR allowed and a 3.56 ERA over 17 G/9 GS. After missing his age-17 year recovering from elbow surgery, Soriano came back in 2018 and showed another level to his game - striking out 4 batters for every 1 he walked, and not allowing a single home run in 42.1 IP en route to a 1.91 ERA.

His age-19 season saw him make the leap to full-season ball - even as the youngest pitcher on the Clinton LumberKings, he held his own over 20 starts (119.2 IP) - he put up 50 BB & 99 Ks in that time while continuing to limit the longball (only 8 dingers allowed.)

After COVID wiped out the 2020 minor league season, Soriano started his 2021 season with the Low-A Jupiter Hammerheads - but after 7 strong starts spread over 34 IP in which he struck out 47 and only allowed 3 HRs, Soriano was promoted to the High-A Beloit Sky Carp and continued his strong performance - 11 GS, 55.1 IP, 67 more Ks while lowering his BB/9 from 4.8 to 3.1, and still keeping the ball in the park (5 HR allowed).

2022 saw a new GM taking over the Marlins in Jackie Daytona, and the new regime decided to let Soriano play out the full season repeating High-A with Beloit. Soriano continued his strong results - 163 Ks in 146 IP spread out over 27 starts, with the only concern coming from his slight jump in home runs allowed (1.5 HR/9).

Soriano made huge strides in his game throughout the year that may not have necessarily translated to his numbers, though - including adding a tick to his fastball to sit at 94-95 after starting the year in the 92-93 range. His control continued to improve and as it stands right now, he has MLB-ready stuff & control with a plus fastball & changeup, with his out pitch being a plus-plus curveball.

Soriano will be starting 2023 in Double-A but after being added to Miami’s 40-man roster, he’s got a good shot to make his MLB debut with a strong performance in Pensacola. The 24 year old really has a chance to make an impact on this year’s Marlins, and head scout D.J. Svihlik projects out his ceiling to that of a #3-4 starter.

[ayaghmour2]

Nice to see you're back! The "Better Know A Prospect" section is a real nice touch. I did a Marlins rebuild a few OOTP versions ago, so I love seeing what others can do with them. You've got your work cut out for you, but Sherman is a far better owner then Loria. Best of luck!

[dannibalcorpse]

Originally Posted by ayaghmour2

Nice to see you're back! The "Better Know A Prospect" section is a real nice touch. I did a Marlins rebuild a few OOTP versions ago, so I love seeing what others can do with them. You've got your work cut out for you, but Sherman is a far better owner then Loria. Best of luck!

Originally Posted by CBLCardinals

Enjoying following along!!

Small market teams bring lots of different challenges for sure

Thanks to both of you! Glad you're enjoying it, it's been fun trying to plot out how to upgrade this team without being able to spend a ton.

[dannibalcorpse]

AROUND THE LEAGUE: FREE AGENT EDITION

The first domino falls quickly, as Aaron Judge surprisingly signs a 4 year, $100.8M deal with the Boston Red Sox on December 7th. Judge had a difficult contract year, only getting into 55 games, putting up a .254/.335/.537 - 16 HR - 37 RBI line in 233 PAs. After betting on himself in his contract year and spurning the Yankee’s extension offer, court will now be re-adjourning 200 miles north of the Bronx.

On December 8th, the Cubs continued to tear it all down by trading Ian Happ to the Angels, with Los Angeles sending back 3 prospects - 23 year old righty SP Brett Kerry (ranked #65 by OSA), 19 year old righthander Andry Lara, and 24 year old 1B/OF Elijah Dunham.

Xander Bogaerts re-signed with the Boston Red Sox on December 9th, inking a 5 year, $139M contract to stay in New England. Bogaerts is coming off an excellent year, hitting .278/.355/.504 - 27 HR - 97 RBI, while leading the American League with 54 2B. Bogaerts was one of the premier UFAs this winter, and Boston has to be happy to have their keystone combo of Bogaerts and Trevor Story locked up through at least 2027 now.

On December 11th, the Braves spent big on a trio of bullpen arms - first, giving 32 year old Evan Marshall a 1 year, $2.32M “prove-it” type deal as 2023 will be his return from TJ surgery. Then, they signed 26 year old Cuban reliever Raidel Martinez to a 3 year, $13.24M deal after Martinez put up some strong numbers in the *** (30 SV, 3.69 ERA, 80:21 K:BB in 61 IP.) The third member of the trio was another star reliever from the ***, 29 year old Geronima Franzua. The Braves gave him 3 years/$14.9M after some video game numbers in Japan: in 39 GP/43.1 IP, Franzua only allowed 28 hits & 7 runs, with 0 HR allowed, while striking out 56 batters and only walking 14. His 22 SV and 1.45 ERA would have made him reliever of the year in the *** if he hadn’t suffered an elbow injury that knocked him out of the last two and a half months of the year. But now with a clean bill of health, Franzua will be the key to a revamped Atlanta pen.

At the same time, the Tampa Bay Rays made a move to enhance their relief corps by trading a 17 year old DSL prospect, Angel Mateo, to the Twins for 35 year old lefty Caleb Thielbar. Caleb had a strong 2022, pitching 55.2 IP over 55 games and going 3-8 with a 2.43 ERA, 68:24 K:BB ratio, 22 SV, and only 2 HR allowed. Mateo projects as a speedy defensive replacement with a little bit of pop.

The Yankees traded 30 year old pitcher Domingo German (3-8, 9 SV, 5.24 ERA, 67 IP, 29 BB, 85 K) along with 23 year old depth arm Cole Ayers to the Cubs for 20 year old OF prospectKevin Alcantara. Kevin hit .205/.319/.371 with 13 HR in 338 Single-A PAs this year and profiles as a competent CF with plus power.

Jean Segura took a trip down I-95 to the nation’s capital, joining the Nationals on a 5 yr/$97M contract after putting up a .308/.359/.439 slash line with 8 HR & 53 RBI in 431 PAs for the Phillies last season.

Chris Bassitt parlayed a strong season in New York (15-4, 2.99 ERA, 33 GS, 177.1 IP, 56 BB, 177 K) into a 5 year, $90M deal with the Dodgers. The Dodgers do not seem content to rest on their laurels after a 103-win season and the NL pennant - Bassitt slides in at #3 for their 2023 rotation. Shortly after that, Clayton Kershaw also re-signed with the Dodgers on a 4 year, $72.8M contract.

One of the biggest bats on the free agent market signed, surprisingly, with Cincinnati, as the Reds gave Joey Gallo a 5 year deal worth $142.7M. Gallo took advantage of the short porch in Yankee Stadium to the tune of a .233/.352/.530 line with 51 HR & 126 RBI in 664 PAs. Great American Ballpark should continue to aid Gallo in his search for the three truest of outcomes.

Willson Contreras will have a new home in Cleveland for 2023 - the Guardians signed the catcher to a 7 year, $120.2M contract after a season that saw Contreras go for .244/.349/.446 with 23 HR & 57 RBI in his 478 PAs last year.

Rumors that had been swirling since early 2021 came to fruition as Jacob deGrom opted out of his contract with the Mets to sign a contract with the Braves. deGrom signed a 3 year deal with a vesting option for a 4th for less than what the Mets had been offering - the draw of playing closer to home was just too much for Jake.

Boston continued pilfering players from the Yankees, signing 1B Anthony Rizzo to a 5 year/$42M contract after a .239/.342/455 season with 21 HR & 58 RBI.

Brandon Belt changed coasts, signing a 4 yr/$69.5M contract with the Phillies. Belt hit .225/..336/.435 in 2022, hitting 29 HR, driving in 75 RBI, and walking 90 times. The Giants also traded away ace Carlos Rodon, sending him to Tampa Bay for a quartet of young prospects.

The Marlins made their first significant signing, inking lefty reliever Victor Gonzalez to a 3 year, $12.5M deal. The 27 year old lefty reliever is a groundball specialist, pairing plus movement with above average stuff and average control. He has a plus sinker and a plus-plus slider. To date he’s pitched 59 games at the major league level, going 55.2 IP with a 2.75 ERA, 21 BB, & 56 K. The signing is a bit of a gamble - Gonzalez spent most of 2022 either injured or in Triple-A, so Jackie Daytona must be hoping that he can pick up where he left off in 2021.

Another reliever signed the same day as Gonzalez - Edwin Diaz left the Mets to sign with the Angels on a 3 year, $11.1M contract after putting up a 3.69 ERA with 35 saves and 114K KS in 68.1 innings last season.

RULE 5 DRAFT: Drafted RHP Oliver Ortega, 1B Curtis Mead; Lost RHP Jordan Holloway:

-Ortega is a reliever that can touch 98 with a plus-plus fastball and a curveball that’s plus already and has the potential to be elite. He had a cup of coffee with the Angels in 2021 so he’s very likely to stick in the majors all year long.

-Mead is a corner IF/OF who probably lands at 1B, a position of need for the Marlins. He hit 38 HRs between Double-A & Triple-A last year and Miami’s scouts love him - they grade him out as 70 contact with 55 power and a great eye. His defense will limit him but he fits the Marlins’ need for a strong bat.

-Holloway was an acceptable loss for the Marlins - he spent 2022 in Triple-A Jacksonville, pitching to a 4.89 ERA in 29 GP/21 GS, with 65 BB & 148 Ks in 114 innings. He’s got plus stuff & movement, but his control is not MLB starter quality. PIttsburgh selected Holloway and it looks like they’ll be using him out of the bullpen next year.

After the Rule 5 draft, the Yankees took one of the biggest names off the free agent board, giving a 4 year/$136M contract to Carlos Correa. Carlos hit .275/.357/.469 with 16 HR & 50 RBI in 113 games with the Twins last season before opting out of his deal and testing free agency once again.

Lance Lynn will stick around in Chicago, signing for 3x$14.2M with the White Sox. Many think that this one’s a bit of a risk for the Pale Hose - Lynn was a 3.1 WAR pitcher in 23 GS last season, but missed some time with an oblique injury that wound up cutting his season short after 131.1 IP. The 35-year-old will have to work hard to convince people he’s still got some tread on the tires and put up a 30 start season next year.

The Yankees replaced Anthony Rizzo by giving a 5 year, $84M deal to switch hitting 1B Josh Bell after he put up an excellent .274/.361/.458 slash with 27 HR & 98 RBIs over 706 PAs in our nation’s capital last season.

With a Jacob deGrom-sized hole in their rotation, the Mets made a big swing just before the calendar turned to 2023, signing Nathan Eovaldi to a 5x$15M deal after the 32-year-old righty went 9-8 with a 4.42 ERA over 30 starts with the Red Sox in 2022. Eovaldi struck out 164 and only walked 43 men over his 181.1 innings last season.

[dannibalcorpse]

The first signing of 2023 was a big one, as 30 year old Sean Manea signed a 6 year deal with Cincinnati, getting $111.6M over the life of the deal. Manea went 15-12 with a 3.88 ERA over 31 starts last season with the Padres, striking out 180 in his 192.2 IP and only walking 48. Manea should establish him as one of the Reds’ top starters in 2023, but will have his work cut out for him trying to keep the ball from going into the Great American Ballpark’s stands.

Houston followed up a couple days later, signing a pair of righties - starter Dylan Bundy(6-8, 4.31 ERA in 28 GS/137.1 IP with 39 BB/113 Ks) signed for 1 year at $3.16M, while closer Kenley Jansen(6-2, 36 SV, 3.08 ERA, 26 BB/98 Ks in 61.1 IP) signed for 2 years and $18.4M total.

Jansen was signed because the ‘Stros were letting lefty closer Aroldis Chapman walk, and as soon as the ink was dry on Kenley’s deal, Chapman signed with Houston’s division rivals in Los Angeles Anaheim, getting 2 years and $22.6M after a year split between the Yankees and Astros that saw him go 8-9 with 19 saves and a 4.21 ERA, while walking 36 and striking out 126 in 66.1 innings.

Friday the 13th of January was a lucky day for Omar Narvaez - he managed to get Bob Nutting to give him a big free agent deal! 4 years and $37.4M from the Pirates after a .204/.287/.312 slash with 7 HR & 49 RBI. His strong ability behind the plate is going to hopefully fill the hole left by trading Jacob Stallings to the Marlins last offseason.

Mid-January saw a big run on relievers:
-Tommy Kahnle gets 2/$8.32M from the Mets (4-5, 3.36 ERA, 16BB/80K in 56.1 IP)
-Blake Treinen signs for 2/$12.6M (10-2, 3 SV, 1.99 ERA, 18BB/53K in 45.1 IP)
-Ken Giles joines Kahnle in Queens for 2/$5.52M (1-0, 7 SV, 2.87, 11 BB/42 K in 31.1 IP)
-Former SP Zach Eflin joins the Dodgers as a lefty reliever for 3/$35.7M after a 5.18 ERA in 172 innings this past season.

The Hall of Fame vote came back with only one man making the trip to Cooperstown this year - Mariners/Rangers/Yankees infield Alex Rodriguez made it with 99.0% of the vote. A-Rod finished his career with a .295/.380/550 career line with 3,115 hits and 696 HRs. His near-unanimous vote totals this year lend more credence to the idea that voters made him wait a year as an unofficial “punishment” for his failed PED tests towards the latter third of his career.

More free agent shenanigans: looking to replace Lorenzo Cain, the Brewers give 3/$36M to Manny Margot after a .255/.318/.395, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 11 SB season with the Rays. Margot is a plus defender at all 3 outfield positions and will try to be the answer in center for Milwaukee this coming season.

JD Martinez is getting into the twilight of his career at 35, but he put up a solid .281/.339/.480 with 27 HR & 108 RBI in 160 games with Boston last year. He then parlayed that into a 1 year, $10.8M deal with the Yankees as Brian Cashman tries to get some modicum of revenge for the Red Sox purloining some of his best players this winter.

The Dodgers hit the end of the preseason by signing a pair of middle infielders, including one of the biggest names left on the market in Dansby Swanson. Swanson signed on for 5/$121M after going .272/.328/.507 with 31 HR/100 RBi with the Braves this past season, and he’ll be joined on the infield dirt by 2B Adam Frazier, signed to a 3/$27.6M after a single year with Mariners. Frazier had a bit of a down year in the Pacific Northwest, hitting .246/.314/.322 with 2 HR & 28 RBI in 501 PAs - but the hope is that he’ll be able to turn it around with a change of scenery to southern California.

After being squeezed off the Chavez Ravine infield, Justin Turner found himself looking for a new home - and he found one, 3,000 miles away in the nation’s capital with the Nationals. Washington signed him to a 1 year, $10.9M deal after the ex-Dodger hti .245/.338/.413 with 20 HR & 67 RBI over 594 PAs in Dodger Blue.

Jose Abreu found himself without a home when the White Sox moved on from him this offseason, handing the first base job to young Andrew Vaughn, but he has found himself a new home in the desert after signing a 2 year, $25.2M contract with the Diamondbacks. The 36-year-old former MVP hit .277/.347/.417 last year with 17 HR & 72 RBI, numbers that Arizona would be happy to see him replicate after watching Pavin Smith put up negative WAR at first base last year.

The Cubs made a surprising splash by giving 35-year-old Carlos Carrasco a contract for 3 years worth $27.3M. “Cookie” went 10-10 with a 4.52 ERA in 169.1 IP with the Mets last year, striking out 177 batters, but the Mets passed on his option and Carrasco found himself some job security on the north side of Chicago.

Matt Boyd found his way back to the Motor City on a 3/$30.1M deal with the Tigers, after splitting 2022 putting up an 8-8, 4.21 ERA season split between the Giants and the Nats. Many around the league are saying it’s a bit of an overpayment for a 32-year-old who projects out as a #4-5 starter, but the Tigers need to pay for any sort of talent and they made sure they got their man with this deal.

The Boyd signing was the last major deal signed during the winter, as pitchers & catchers had already started reporting to Florida & Arizona in anticipation of the 2023 season. Spring is in the air, and the Marlins will join the other 29 teams in putting together the best group they can for the upcoming season.

[dannibalcorpse]

As the calendar turned over to February 2023, Marlins’ President of Baseball Operations Jackie Daytona was hard at work figuring out just who exactly from the organization would be on the Major League side of the team’s Spring Training Complex. It’s a fine line to thread - it’s the best chance the big league brass has to have some hands-on time with their top prospects, but you’ve got veterans needing to shake off the winter’s rust and get ready for Opening Day. After careful deliberations, the Marlins have decided to bring the following players to Jupiter:

(On the 40-man, MLB experience, On the 40-man, no MLB experience, Non-Roster Invitee*)

C: Payton Henry, Chris Okey*, Jacob Stallings

CORNER IF: Yoenis Cespedes, Isan Diaz, Lewin Diaz, Curtis Mead, Mike Moustakas

MIDDLE IF: Elvis Andrus*, Jazz Chisholm Jr, Jose Devers, Tristan Gray*, Luis Rengifo, Wilfredo Tovar

OF: JJ Bleday, Jackie Bradley Jr*, Griffin Conine, Bryan De La Cruz, Avisail Garcia, Victor Victor Mesa, Brian Miller, Jesus Sanchez, Jorge Soler

RHP: Sandy Alcantara, Mark Appel, Anthony Bender, Brad Boxberger*, Alexis Diaz, Calvin Faucher*, Dylan Floro, Louis Head, Max Meyer*, Oliver Ortega, Eury Perez*, David Robertson*, Sixto Sanchez, George Soriano, Philips Valdez, Mitch White, Tyler Zombro*

LHP: Tom Cosgrove, Grant Dayton*, Victor Gonzalez, Jacob Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Andrew Nardi*, Steven Okert, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Andrew Vasquez*

POSITION BATTLES: The main position up for grabs coming into camp is the starting shortstop job. Jose Devers & Luis Rengifo are the holdovers from last year, but neither really separated themselves with subpar seasons at the plate. Wilfredo Tovar is sure to make a push for the spot, but his versatility (65+ defensively at 2B/3B) leave him better suited for a super-sub type role. Beyond those three, there’s one other player with extensive experience at short in camp…

NAMES TO WATCH: Among the position players, NRIs Elvis Andrus & Jackie Bradley Jr. were both signed to straight minor league deals after not catching on with anyone this past winter. Andrus held his own defensively as the A’s everyday shortstop in 2022, but didn’t do much at the plate. His .232/.270/.296 worked out to a pitiful 56 OPS+, being done in by a complete lack of power - not a single home run in 537 PAs! JBJ had a similarly disappointing year at the plate despite playing every day, as he hit .216/.309/.311 with 5 HR & 48 RBI in 559 PAs. Each will look to carve out a bench role on a very young Marlins team.

On the mound, the names to watch are the new acquisitions - Alexis Diaz & Victor Gonzalez have pretty short track records of success, but the Marlins’ scouts love them - will this great stuff on paper translate to success out of the Miami ‘pen? Veteran NRIs Brad Boxberger, Grant Dayton, & David Robertson are in camp to offer a decent fallback option in case some of the young arms can’t get it going.

The coaching staff returns more or less intact from 2022 - Manager Don Mattingly kept his position coaches Mel Stottlemyre Jr(PC) and Marcus Thames(HC), along with his bench coach James Rowson and his base coaches Keith Johnson (1B) & Bo Jackson (3B).

SPRING TRAINING NEWS

March 2, 2023: C Payton Henry was removed from yesterday’s 8-7 loss against the Nats after a collision in the 2nd inning - Henry strained his back after running into Washington SS Lucius Fox trying to keep the Bahamian middle infielder from completing the double play. While Henry probably could’ve played through the injury, Spring Training is neither the time nor the place to push through something, so Henry goes on the IL while NRI Nick Fortes will get some reps in MLB camp while Henry recovers.

March 12, 2023: With Spring Training games halfway done, Don Mattingly started whittling down his roster. He had a little help in his decision-making, as Elvis Andrus strained his oblique and will miss about 6 weeks - he was assigned to minor league camp and placed on the IL. Fellow veteran Jackie Bradley Jr. also found himself reassigned after an 0-21 start to his spring - he’ll be in Triple-A Jacksonville as depth for the Marlins organization. Some of the young starters also got reassigned - Eury Perez & Max Meyer had a few starts to get some reps against MLB batters, but they’ll step aside and let the 2023 rotation get stretched out in anticipation of the upcoming regular season. A handful of relievers were sent to the minor league side, as well - Grant Dayton, Mark Appel, David Robertson, Louis Head, Anthony Bender, and Andrew Nardi will be starting the season in the minor leagues after not doing much to separate themselves in camp.

March 15, 2023: The Ides would not pass without claiming a victim - Jesus Luzardo will miss the next 5-6 weeks with a forearm strain. Luzardo was penciled into the back end of the rotation along with Mitch White, and his absence will open up a spot for about the first month of the season - Jacob Lopez, Calvin Faucher, & George Soriano have all been getting starts during spring, with Lopez & Soriano already on the 40-man roster if Mattingly wants to bring them into the regular season. The April schedule doesn’t bring many well-timed off days, unfortunately, so the Marlins will need a full 5 man rotation for most of the opening month.

March 21, 2023: Another spring training injury hits the Marlins as splashy offseason acquisition Mike Moustakas hit the injured list today. Moustakas is another victim of the dreaded oblique strain, and will be looking at the same 5-6 week timetable for recovery that Elvis Andrus was prescribed earlier. There’s not much available at 3B in the Marlins’ upper levels, so they may wind up rolling with former top 100 prospect Isan Diaz at the hot corner, or plugging in Wilfredo Tovar for a few weeks, or possibly even waiting to see who gets DFA’d in the run-up to Opening Day. The news could be worse, but it surely stings to be starting the season without the lineup’s shiny new toy.

[dannibalcorpse]

With Spring Training wrapping up, the Marlins have made their final cuts and have their 26 man roster more or less set on the eve of the season.

Their Opening Day lineup should look something like this:

LF Bryan De La Cruz
2B Jazz Chisholm, Jr.
RF Avisail Garcia
CF Jesus Sanchez
DH Jorge Soler
3B Isan Diaz
1B Curtis Mead
C Jacob Stallings
SS Jose Devers

Bench: IF/OF Yoenis Cespedes, IF Wilfredo Tovar, IF Luis Rengifo, OF Brian Miller, C Payton Henry

Diaz will be holding down the fort at third while Mike Moustakas recuperates from his injury. Jose Devers will get first crack at shortstop, with his bat keeping him in the 9-hole and his glove hopefully carrying his value this year.

The rotation had a couple surprises after Jesus Luzardo’s oblique injury:

LHP Trevor Rogers*
RHP Sandy Alcantara
RHP Sixto Sanchez
RHP Mitch White
RHP George Soriano
(* - Opening Day Starter)

Soriano was just ranked #46 in the preseason Top 100 Prospects list, and won the impromptu battle for the fifth starter spot over Jacob Lopez after both were added to the 40-man this past winter. Mitch White also successfully stretched out back into a starter’s role after spending most of 2022 as a reliever with the Blue Jays & Marlins.

As far as the bullpen, Tanner Scott & Dylan Floro return as the late-inning anchors, along with offseason signing Victor Gonzalez. The bridge from the starters to the high leverage boys will be almost all new faces - last year’s waiver claim Tom Cosgrove is the only returning face, with trade acquisition Alexis Diaz, Rule 5 pick Oliver Ortega, and NRI Andrew Vasquez all breaking camp with Miami.

BNN released its preseason projections based on the team’s Opening Day rosters, and the National League is shaping up to be a real slugfest this year:



Rare to see such a bunching up of teams - every NL squad is predicted to win between 70 and 89 games. Zero 90 win teams, and only the lowly Colorado Rockies projected to lose more than 90 - the 2023 season looks like it could be anyone’s ballgame.

Miami’s 74-88 prediction is a little lower than where owner Bruce Sherman & GM Jackie Daytona want to land, but with the return of last year’s best starter Pablo Lopez expected around June 1, and Mike Moustakas coming back even sooner than that, there’s a good chance that they’ll be able to squeeze a few extra wins out of this roster.

The picture’s a little brighter on the Miami farm, though - the Marlins were recently ranked by BNN as the 4th best farm system in the league, with 7 prospects in their season-opening TOp 100 list - including 5 in the top 50!



Lots to like in this system - the players are starting to move up through the system, with a glut of those prospects in High-A & Double-A. Colby White should be ready for the beginning of the Triple-A season, giving the Marlins another high-end relief prospect that they can bring along slowly. Jake Eder’s in the same boat - he’s fully recovered after missing the entire 2022 season and will look to pick up where he left off starting with Double-A Pensacola this season. The only disappointment on the list is Lester Nin - the 19-year-old righty underwent TJ surgery this spring and won’t be back til next May at the earliest.

Miami is a team on the cusp - the pieces all look good on paper, but it still remains to see if this is the year they finally manage to put it together. The team enters the season about $4.6M under Bruce Sherman’s budget, so they’ll have room to add bats if they get the chance - not a ton to work with, but more than the Marlins typically have had in the last few years. It’s a start!

[dannibalcorpse]

April 1, 2023: Claimed 3B Jose Rondon (MIL) & RHP Corbin Martin (ARI) off waivers; waived/designated for assignment 1B Lewin Diaz, optioned LHP Tom Cosgrove to Triple-A Jacksonville.

The end of Spring Training churn threw up a couple options that Jackie Daytona had no choice but to jump on to try and clean up the margins of the roster. 29 year old 3B Jose Rondon has bounced around the league since debuting with the Padres in 2016, spending some time with the White Sox, Orioles, Cardinals, & Brewers in the time since. Milwaukee tried to sneak him through waivers since he’s out of option years, but the Marlins jumped on a guy with 60-grade power and who hit 18 HRs in 312 PAs across 4 levels last season. He’ll replace Isan Diaz as the everyday 3B until Mike Moustakas is healthy enough to take over - and his ability to play 2B & SS will give him a better shot at keeping a roster spot after the Moose comes back than Diaz would have had.

Martin is a bit of a different claim for Miami - the 27 year old is a former 2nd round pick who was a key part of the Zack Greinke trade back in 2019 for the Diamondbacks. 2022 was his first full season back from TJ surgery and he looked good in 139.1 Triple-A innings - striking out 148 and putting up 2.4 WAR in the homer-happy PCL. He had a cup of coffee with Arizona before the end of the year but didn’t do much - but the Marlins like his fastball/slider combo out of the bullpen. Tom Cosgrove was sent down after pitching 2 innings on Opening Day.

Speaking of Opening Day…



The Marlins came out strong with a 7-3 win over the perennial powerhouse that is the Dodgers. Trevor Rogers danced in and out of trouble for 5 innings, Tom Cosgrove kept it safe for 2 more, and Dylan Floro had a 6 out save to lock it in. The Marlins beat up Julio Urias, including home runs from Jesus Sanchez & Jacob Stallings.

April 13, 2023: The Marlins announced the signing of an international free agent today - a bit of a late bloomer that head scout DJ Svihlik sees something special in. Rogelio Ybarra will be turning 18 in July but profiles out as a potentially great bat for the future:



His defensive profile is DH with a splash of 1B, so his development will depend almost entirely on the bat reaching its potential, but the potential is tantalizing - he profiles a Mike Sweeney type who can hit .300 with 40 doubles and 20-25 HRs. For a guy that doesn’t affect the international signing cap, he’s a great add to the prospect pool. He’ll have a chance to start showing that more or less immediately, as his age makes him a perfect candidate to start off in the Dominican complex leagues this summer.

April 27, 2023: Another interesting player didn’t make it through waivers without getting claimed by the Marlins - former 5th overall pick Nick Gordon was DFA’d by the Minnesota Twins and the Marlins were more than happy to scoop him off the waiver wire. Gordon is a super-utility player, with the potential to give at least average defense at 2B, 3B, SS, and all three outfield positions. He had 35 PAs in 14 games before Minnesota cut bait, hitting .242/.265/.242 with 3 SB during that short run. The Marlins designated IF Wilfredo Tovar for assignment to clear a roster & 40-man spot for Gordon - Tovar had been backing up at 3B & SS, but had failed to make any sort of impact at the plate. In 38 PAs, Tovar was hitting .135 with only 5 hits, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts. There’s a small downgrade in defense between the two, but Gordon’s ability to play the outfield and slightly stronger profile at the plate is enough to get him a roster spot going forward for the Marlins.

THE RUNDOWN: APRIL 2023
(includes 1 game from March 31)

Team Record: 11-17. 4th place in the NL East, 4.5 GB. 2 games better than Pythagorean pace.



Do They Deserve This Record?: Frankly? Yes. The pitching has been abominable and the hitting hasn’t been nearly enough to make up for it. Teams can go a whole *season* without giving up 15 runs in a game, and these Marlins did it 3 times in a 16 day span this month - and threw in a 10-0 shutout loss to Arizona as a little cherry on top. The arms need to step up big to keep this season from going down the drain before Memorial Day.



Best Bat Of The Month: 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr. slashed a pretty .261/.350/.534 line in his 103 PAs, including 6 doubles, 3 triples, 4 HR, and 11 RBI. He walked 10 times and kept his K% below 20% during the month - big strides for the former free swinging Bahamian. Honorable mention to waiver wire pickup Jose Rondon, hitting .260/.316/.438 with 4 HR & 4 RBI - get this man someone, anyone, who can get on base in front of him!



Best Arm Of The Month: Not a lot of options, but Sandy Alcantara stood head and shoulders above his teammates on the mound in April. Over 6 starts, Sandy pitched 40.2 IP while going 3-2 with a 2.88 ERA, numbers supported by his 31 Ks and only 16 BB in that time, and more importantly, only 4 HR allowed. Alcantara looks like the real deal this year.



The rest of the staff? Not so much - Mitch White has been abysmal and would have been relegated to the bullpen already if there were enough starters to go around. But with Pablo Lopez still 6-8 weeks away, the Marlins will keep rolling with him, as well as the aggressively mediocre performances by Sixto Sanchez & Trevor Rogers. George Soriano held his head barely above water in his 3 starts, but Jesus Luzardo was bombed in his return from the IL.

It’s going to take some work for the Marlins to avoid the 2023 season becoming just another notch mark on the rebuild’s wall, but there are signs of life showing - both their Rule 5 picks have been playing well, with Curtis Mead keeping up at the plate (.256/.258/.419 with 3 HR in 91 PAs) and Oliver Ortega throwing some solid middle relief innings in his first crack at big-league batters - a 3.12 ERA, 17 Ks, and only 3 walks in 17.1 IP. Jorge Soler is still hitting home runs despite a mediocre slash line (6 HR in 97 PAs to go with his .190/.299/.429), and free agent signing Victor Gonzalez has lived up to his deal, going 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA, and a 14:5 K:BB ratio in 11.2 innings. And good things are on the horizon - Mike Moustakas is finishing up a short rehab stint with Triple-A Jacksonville and should be meeting the team in Colorado to kick off the month of May and play his first games as a Marlin. Pablo Lopez is still on target for his mid-June return. And one of the offseason’s biggest trade acquisitions has made his return from injury, as Colby White is now back and throwing for Triple-A Jacksonville with a hopeful MLB debut before the end of the summer.

[dannibalcorpse]

May 2, 2023: Traded minor-league LHP Steven Okert to the Chicago Cubs for IF Nick Madrigal

An unusual early season trade came down the wire in the first week of May, as two struggling clubs swapped what look like spare parts. Miami had no spot for Okert in their bullpen, despite decent numbers last year (4.02 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 9.4 K/9 in 71.2 IP.) Chicago, meanwhile, had soured enough on Madrigal to decide running a Nico Hoerner/JT Riddle keystone combo was better than giving him MLB time - he had played exclusively at Triple-A Iowa in 2023, putting up an insane .483/.500/.690 line in 61 PAs so far. He’s got experience at both middle infield positions and had been getting some time in the outfield, so the hope is he can be a super-utility player for the Marlins - for now, he’ll report to Triple-A Jacksonville and to keep getting regular playing time. In other transaction news, IF Luis Rengifo was designated for assignment today to make room for the returning Mike Moustakas - Moose will be playing 3B and batting 6th in his first game for the Marlins tonight.

May 8, 2023: The ever-present specter of injury paid another visit to Yoenis Cespedes today, as the Marlins’ veteran bench bat sprained his ankle hustling out an infield single in an eventual 3-1 loss to the Cubs today. Cespedes has struggled at the plate in the early going, hitting .192/.288/.365 in 59 PAs with 2 HR & 4 RBI. Getting the unlikely call-up will be IF Bubba Hollins - Hollins was a 35th round draft pick of the Tigers in 2014, but never signed - eventually signing with the Marlins as an undrafted free agent in the summer of 2017. Injuries have plagued Hollins as he made his way up the minor league ladder, including being limited to 60 Triple-A PAs in 2022. He had been a reserve in Jacksonville, which is part of the reason why he got the call - with Cespedes out, Don Mattingly will just have fewer scheduled off days for Curtis Mead & Jorge Soler at 1B & DH, so it makes sense to bring up Hollins instead of letting a more high-profile prospect sit on the bench 5 days a week.

May 23, 2023: The Marlins made an interesting international free agent signing today - Jackie Daytona announced the team had signed RHP Juan Aguilar out of Venezuela. Aguilar is already 6’6” as a 16 year old, touching 88-90 with a good fastball/sinker combo. He needs to develop a little more movement on his pitches, but he pairs plus stuff with plus control and should have a future in the MLB if he lives up to his projections. Whether it’s in the rotation or the bullpen will depend on his ability to fully develop a 3rd pitch - in theory, he has a changeup, but it profiles as a poor pitch and without a change he’s slated for middle relief.




THE RUNDOWN: MAY 2023

Team Record: 12-14 (23-31 overall), 5th place NLE, 8 GB. 4 games ahead of their Pythagorean Pace.



Do They Deserve This Record? May started off rough for the Marlins, being outscored 31-16 in Denver as they lost 2 out of 3 to the Rockies. But they managed to take 2 out of 3 at home against the Braves and Mets, and salvaged a split with the powerhouse Dodgers. The pitching settled into more of a groove after the first week of May - there were less double-digit outbursts against Marlins pitching after an absolutely abysmal April.



Still struggling along the bottom of the rankings in a lot of these categories, with a few noteworthy exceptions - the Marlins are in the top half of the NL in batting average, bullpen ERA, home runs allowed, batter strikeouts, steals, and have the best baserunning numbers of the Senior Circuit. Some good stuff to build off here - the team is running smart and limiting mistakes, which is a great foundation to build off of.

Best Bat of the Month: Curtis Mead! .324/.400/.554 in 22 games, with 3 HR & 9 RBI. 8 doubles and 13 runs scored add up to a strong second month for the rookie Rule 5 pick - he’s now hitting .287/.328/.481 with 6 HRs in his first taste of big league action. Honorable mentions to Mike Moustakas (.304/.364/.456 with 3 HR in 24 GP coming back from injury) & young Jose Devers (.321/.364/.407 in 81 ABs). Overall, a decent month for the bats - some of the WAR numbers are small sample size noise, but no regular really had a terrible month here:



Best Arm of the Month: Easy selection here - Trevor Rogers was named NL Pitcher of the Month for May after putting up a 2.32 ERA with only 30 H & 5 BB allowed in his 31 IP - striking out 29 and only allowing a single home run all month, going 4-0 in his 5 starts. Special attention must be given to Oliver Ortega & Victor Gonzalez, as well: Ortega did not give up an earned run in his 13.1 IP, striking out 14 and walking only 1; Gonzalez only allowed a single earned run in his 14.2 IP, and counteracted his 6 walks by striking out 23(!) batters in that time.



Mitch White also transitioned nicely to the bullpen, striking out 23 in his 19.1 IP to go with his 3.26 ERA; unfortunately his rotation replacement Jesus Luzardo had a rough go of it, putting up a 5.97 ERA in 28.2 IP, giving up 5 longballs and walking 19 in that time. Sandy Alcantara & Sixto Sanchez had a tough May as well, but the good news is that Pablo Lopez began his rehab assignment at the end of the month and is on track for a mid-June return.

The Marlins’ front office is more or less pleased with how May turned out for them - with a couple luckier bounces, this could have been a winning month for the Marlins. The new acquisitions have been playing very well, which speaks highly to second year GM Jackie Daytona’s ability to suss out talent from unexpected places - multiple Rule 5 picks being successful in every day roles, some waiver claims playing important roles, and unheralded free agent signings putting up good numbers - the Marlins may not be conventionally built, but the foundation is showing some strength that should bode well for the team’s future.