Contemplating Approach To Historic Season Replays

[JAB]

(Originally posted in Historical Simulations, but that must be for replay reports)

It's been about 10 years since I last used OOTP, and even then it could not displace my long-time use of DMB to replay historic seasons starting in 1965. With DMB my custom has been to play out every single game on the schedule and picking a team to manage for each game, whichever team made sense to me for any variety of reasons. It's taken me from 3 to 5 years for each season, and I'm just finishing up 1967.

For various life-reasons I wanted to make a change. I just bought OOTP 23 and I'm trying to figure out what approach I want to take with my replays. I want as much fidelity to the historical season, real life schedules, transactions and lineups, so I've looked at videos and read enough to take a quick stab at setup and settings, just to see what OOTP is like now. Now I want to lay out a road map and proper settings for a serious replay, and I'm considering my options.

My preferred option is to be able to sim seasons one day at a time while picking just one game and team to manage. Which game and which team I want to decide each day, Once a season is finished I want to go on to the next. I want the AI to do a decent job of managing the other teams. I have no interest in GM matters. I know about Commissioner mode, and I suspect that might work, but I don't know about any pitfalls with that approach.

My other alternative is to pick the team I grew up with, the Dodgers, and manage them through an ongoing series of seasons.

I'm hoping experienced users might be able to give me some concrete idea of what is possible, what works best, and what to avoid given my particular interest.

Thanks for any responses.

[uruguru]

From the Opening Screen

1) Select "New Historical Game", select "No" for challenge mode

2) Pick your starting season from the menu, import complete history. Don't import Negro/Mnor leagues or use Random PLayers

3) Select "Advanced Options" lower the two "Adjust Hitters Options" by 50% -- to '150' and '25', respectively

4) Select "Next Step" and wait for data to load

5) On the next screen, check the boxes for "Use Real Historical Transactions" and "Use Real Historical Lineups". Don't check any of the minor-league boxes. Select "Next Step"

6) On the next screen, make sure "Disable Player Development" is select and select "Next Step"

7) On the next screen, Scouting and Player Ratings do not matter...select "Next Step"

8) Now name your game, your manager profile name, set your role to "Manager" and check the "Cannot be Fired" box. Select "Next Step"

9) On the next screen, select the team you want to manage and select "Start Game"

10) Once the game has started, immediately save your game

11) on the MLB menu, select "League Settings"

12) on the "Global Settings" tab, uncheck "Use Coaching System" and "Enable Owner Goals".

13) on the "Players & Facegen" tab, uncheck "Use Player Personality Ratings" and "Show & Use Player Morale System". Also ensure that "Disable Player Development" is checked!

14) on the "League Settings" tab, go to the "Options" sub-tab and uncheck "Allow Rainouts" (since you are using historical lineups already)

Now you are ready to roll.

When you start a game, it will automatically load the historically used lineup and starting pitcher for that game.

If you want to change that lineup or starting pitcher, go to the "Lineup & Starting Pitcher" tab once you've entered the game. Change the lineup and pitcher as you see fit.

Once you hit "Start Game" any changes are now in-game substitutions.

[JAB]

Thanks for the extended and detailed reply, Uruguru. That gives me the nuts and bolts of setting up a historical replay game.

One other thing I'm asking is whether or not there are pitfalls with working in Commissioner Mode, which would allow me on any given game day to select a different team to manage. I'd rather uncover any pitfalls now rather than discover them partway into the project.

Oh, and I would like some input from experience on the best choice or L/R splits, generic or actual season splits. I know what these alternatives mean, I just don't know from experience how OOTP's implementation actually works out.

[Pelican]

Not sure exactly what you mean by “pitfalls” in Commissioner mode. You’ll have complete flexibility to choose teams to manage; although as you switch, you’ll of course lose ability to control the previous team (but you can set daily lineups into the future). I suppose the “pitfall” many fall prey to is manipulation of player ratings or player assignments or finances or the like. There will be a temptation to “adjust” things and the full ability to do that. Most seem to have principles about whether to mess with anything in the game, and if so, in a “neutral” fashion. I can never resist the urge to tweak something; which is fine, since my goal is not an accurate replay but usually a “what if” with changes and interventions. But beware. If you change one innocuous setting, it can have that “butterfly effect” of impacting your whole sim.

I think the choice on splits depends on your goals. As you clearly want as much fidelity to real life as possible, your choices are pretty clear. You would want actual season splits, I would think. Uruguru has the rest of you r ideal path.

[JAB]

Thanks, Pelican. Your response is helpful.

I meant "pitfalls" as a sort of ambiguous catch-all for anything those who've used this approach may have encountered that I would not be aware of.

The only thing I want to influence is the in-game management for the games and teams I choose to play. I want no GM influence.

I think you're right re: splits, just wanted to smoke out any words of caution about actual splits. That's what I've used in my DMB replays.

So I think I have enough to chart a forward course.

Thanks again to both of you.

[Brad K]

JAB, you might want to check to see if actual splits are what you think they are on single year rating. I play on 3 year rating and can say what is shown in the editor isn't what is on BBRef. However the editor assumes 75% ABs vs RHP which isn't the league average or something many batters achieve, so that may be affecting the calculations.

I have been meaning to investigate this but haven't gotten around to it. I think "actual splits" should not be actual splits and if they aren't I'm not complaining except that they're named wrong.

[JAB]

Brad K,

So if I get what you're saying, OOTP takes actual splits (whether 1-yr or 3-yr) and performs an algorithm on them to arrive at calculated splits based on it's preset percentage of AB's vs L and R?

If so, this is the kind of unanticipated thing I wanted to smoke out before embarking on any project.

I am familiar with the thinking behind 3-yr splits. To be sure, two problems with actual splits are their year-to-year volatility and the limitations of using them when AB's are few. 3-yr splits help with both.

Generic splits, while easier from a manager standpoint, don't really reflect real-world baseball, where players that stand up well against same-hand pitchers are more valuable than those with severe splits.

Happy to entertain any further comment from you or others.

It's sounding like I ought to be able to go with Commissioner mode with real splits of some type.

[JAB]

I really like the many-faceted challenges faced by whole-season in-game managing.

[Murph3]

I love OOTP, but for single season replays I’ve found that Strat and Diamond Mind are much more realistic as it comes to stats.

I use Strat for single season replays and OOTP for franchise mode. Works well.

[JAB]

Murph3,

I agree.

I have been doing DMB replays for more the 20 years. The last 12 years I have been playing out every single game on the major league schedule for 1965, 1966, and 1967.

I have also dabbled in Stratomatic, in the 1980's with cards and dice, in the 2000's with the computer game.

I have some complicated reasons for attempting to make a change to OOTP. I am not doing this with the expectation that it will match DMB in replay realism.

Thanks for your post.

[JAB]

Okay, I've set up an MLB historical replay starting in 1968 per the steps outlined by uruguru (with a couple of slight modifications) and started as manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates. I think what I'd like to do is manage two games a day, one in each league, whichever I find most appealing.

For the season opener in the AL I find the Boston / Detroit matchup most interesting. Yet I can't figure out how to take over managing Detroit for that game. I have searched the online manual and the web. The only comments I can find have to do with the owner. Any help is appreciated.

[Pelican]

On the main screen, go to your manager, and on the drop-down you will see "act as", which will let you choose a team to manage. Hope that answers your question.

Beware (speaking from experience) that until you reverse this choice and choose another team, the game will treat you as the manager of the team you choose. I mention this because, if you aren't careful, you could miss managing a game for another team of your choice. In other words, if you, for example, choose to manage the Tigers, then let the game autoplay the rest of the schedule, that would include the Pirates game. I'm not sure if you can choose to manage Detroit/Boston and the Pirates simultaneously - on the same day.

[JAB]

Perfect, thanks a lot.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by JAB

Brad K,

So if I get what you're saying, OOTP takes actual splits (whether 1-yr or 3-yr) and performs an algorithm on them to arrive at calculated splits based on it's preset percentage of AB's vs L and R?

If so, this is the kind of unanticipated thing I wanted to smoke out before embarking on any project.

I am familiar with the thinking behind 3-yr splits. To be sure, two problems with actual splits are their year-to-year volatility and the limitations of using them when AB's are few. 3-yr splits help with both.

Generic splits, while easier from a manager standpoint, don't really reflect real-world baseball, where players that stand up well against same-hand pitchers are more valuable than those with severe splits.

Happy to entertain any further comment from you or others.

It's sounding like I ought to be able to go with Commissioner mode with real splits of some type.

Are you sure you want real splits for each season?

Willie Stargell career

vs RHP .293 .376 .559
vs LHP .251 .319 .449


Here is Willie Stargell for 1976

vs RHP .243 .320 .450
vs LHP .284 .374 .473


With real splits depending on who you have on the bench you might not play Stargell against RHP in 1976. Is that realistic? Is 1976 performance against RHP a combination of bad luck and small sample size? If the game rates him as if .243 were actual talent against RHP then randomness in the game might result in him hitting .200 against RHP. Should he ever hit .200 for a season against RHP?

Sorry for the delay in responding. I don't do internet when I'm on vacation.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by JAB

(Originally posted in Historical Simulations, but that must be for replay reports)

It used to be - several years ago - full of posts for workarounds, how to's, tips, etc. However, over the years OOTP addressed so many of the commonly discussed things (that required those workarounds, etc.) that there isn't much of that anymore. Now it's mostly replay/dynasty reports.

[sdw1000]

Hate to say it..but historical replays in OOTP can be iffy. I was contemplating buying PC Replay Baseball before I succumbed and bought 23 a month ago. Dice games are more accurate than these sandbox games for historical.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by sdw1000

Hate to say it..but historical replays in OOTP can be iffy. I was contemplating buying PC Replay Baseball before I succumbed and bought 23 a month ago. Dice games are more accurate than these sandbox games for historical.

So, it sort of depends. FIP really messes with our understanding of historical stats.


If you ignore FIP and just use straight batting/pitching stats, you can make OOTP as accurate as anything else. But FIP is a additional layer, a statistical degree of freedom, that actually exists in baseball but adds variability to any sim that incorporates it.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by thehef

It used to be - several years ago - full of posts for workarounds, how to's, tips, etc. However, over the years OOTP addressed so many of the commonly discussed things (that required those workarounds, etc.) that there isn't much of that anymore. Now it's mostly replay/dynasty reports.

Wow. I looked at the historical forum. A zero response thread. Amazing.