One for the Analytically-Minded

luckymann · 07-20-2022, 12:38 AM

OK, so I love reading threads where it is clear the person running the save knows how to innately analyse stats. For me, it doesn't come quite so easily - I have to really work at it and often reach the sort of impasse I have here.

I'd love to hear some thoughts analysing this pitching performance. Contextually, it is an historical save and this was the 1937 full-season performance of my staff.

I see the higher-than-expected ERA (yes, only middle of the rankings I know, but strong pitching is the bedrock of my game style) and then look at the really good FIP and immediately think our D needs improvement, but the stats in that department say otherwise. We are walking the least amount of batters as well, and striking out our fair share. So I am baffled.

Anyway, looking forward to the many sharper minds in this regard than mine chiming in with their take on things. If further data would help, let me know. TIA.

jbergey22 · 07-20-2022, 12:46 AM

This is odd. How is your catcher and how well do your pitchers hold runners? Did you give up an abnormal amount of steals? Did you play in a very hitter friendly park?

luckymann · 07-20-2022, 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbergey22

This is odd. How is your catcher and how well do your pitchers hold runners? Did you give up an abnormal amount of steals? Did you play in a very hitter friendly park?

Catcher is Josh Gibson - so super strong defensively with Arm rating of 8. Although, that said, he has only thrown out 40% of runners (18 of 45) and his CERA seems high at 4.24. Only slightly positive ZR as well.

Hold-wise we are again really strong, with only one guy beneath a 6 rating.

We're in Forbes, which is actually pitcher friendly (0.745 HR).

Good to at least know I'm not missing something embarrassingly obvious!

Brad K · 07-20-2022, 08:42 AM

Eight team league right?

So how does being the best in errors and FIP correlate with being average in ERA and runs allowed? It doesn't. I think there's not a performance problem here. I think its a stats calculation problem.

BarneyRubble · 07-20-2022, 09:05 AM

If his team is 1st in FIP at 3.43, then the team leading in ERA is most likely 3.70+. So while he's 5th in ERA, it's possible he's right behind the leader.

luckymann · 07-20-2022, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarneyRubble

If his team is 1st in FIP at 3.43, then the team leading in ERA is most likely 3.70+. So while he's 5th in ERA, it's possible he's right behind the leader.

Actually, they were at 3.31 - 60 points is a fair margin. We are 12 points under the total league ERA, though.

Marinersfan51 · 07-20-2022, 11:37 AM

Looks like your BABIP is a little higher than league average, but not drastically so. That could indicate poor defense, though your defensive stats seem to indicate otherwise, so it might just be bad luck.

The other thing that occurs to me is that your ERA/FIP gap is at least partly because your team doesn't commit very many errors. Your RA9/ERA gap is likely the smallest in the league, so the higher ERA isn't telling the whole story there.

kidd_05_u2 · 07-20-2022, 11:45 AM

I don't see anything too problematic honestly. You are getting a bit unlucky with BABIP and probably with sequencing, while the ERA leaders are quite lucky in BABIP and most likely in sequencing too (the yankees in particular look like they had extreme sequencing luck at first sight, but I'm not going to do the math). Also, you give up few homeruns, and yet the ERA leaders have lower slugging allowed.

I think this is one of the cases where FIP lets you down. I bet you don't lead the league in SIERA (is it available for historical?), which is a better stat. All in all, on average your team would probably have an ERA between your FIP and your actual ERA if you replayed the season several times.

I'm not sure the Zone Rating stat can really be trusted given how the game engine works. If somebody has any clue on how the game handles it, I would love to know.

luckymann · 07-20-2022, 06:33 PM

Thanks guys, appreciate the feedback. This is still on 22, so no SIERA available.

BarneyRubble · 07-20-2022, 07:04 PM

It is curious.

07-20-2022, 12:38 AM	#1
luckymann Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 14,322	One for the Analytically-Minded OK, so I love reading threads where it is clear the person running the save knows how to innately analyse stats. For me, it doesn't come quite so easily - I have to really work at it and often reach the sort of impasse I have here. I'd love to hear some thoughts analysing this pitching performance. Contextually, it is an historical save and this was the 1937 full-season performance of my staff. I see the higher-than-expected ERA (yes, only middle of the rankings I know, but strong pitching is the bedrock of my game style) and then look at the really good FIP and immediately think our D needs improvement, but the stats in that department say otherwise. We are walking the least amount of batters as well, and striking out our fair share. So I am baffled. Anyway, looking forward to the many sharper minds in this regard than mine chiming in with their take on things. If further data would help, let me know. TIA. __________________ HISTORICAL DO-OVERS A'S RED SOX DODGERS PIRATES MARINERS CUSTOM SAVES LGB NEXUS

07-20-2022, 06:33 PM	#9
luckymann Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 14,322	Thanks guys, appreciate the feedback. This is still on 22, so no SIERA available. __________________ HISTORICAL DO-OVERS A'S RED SOX DODGERS PIRATES MARINERS CUSTOM SAVES LGB NEXUS

07-20-2022, 12:46 AM	#2
jbergey22 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,481	This is odd. How is your catcher and how well do your pitchers hold runners? Did you give up an abnormal amount of steals? Did you play in a very hitter friendly park?

07-20-2022, 08:42 AM	#4
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	Eight team league right? So how does being the best in errors and FIP correlate with being average in ERA and runs allowed? It doesn't. I think there's not a performance problem here. I think its a stats calculation problem.

07-20-2022, 09:05 AM	#5
BarneyRubble Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 173	If his team is 1st in FIP at 3.43, then the team leading in ERA is most likely 3.70+. So while he's 5th in ERA, it's possible he's right behind the leader.

07-20-2022, 11:37 AM	#7
Marinersfan51 All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 777	Looks like your BABIP is a little higher than league average, but not drastically so. That could indicate poor defense, though your defensive stats seem to indicate otherwise, so it might just be bad luck. The other thing that occurs to me is that your ERA/FIP gap is at least partly because your team doesn't commit very many errors. Your RA9/ERA gap is likely the smallest in the league, so the higher ERA isn't telling the whole story there.

07-20-2022, 11:45 AM	#8
kidd_05_u2 All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 628	I don't see anything too problematic honestly. You are getting a bit unlucky with BABIP and probably with sequencing, while the ERA leaders are quite lucky in BABIP and most likely in sequencing too (the yankees in particular look like they had extreme sequencing luck at first sight, but I'm not going to do the math). Also, you give up few homeruns, and yet the ERA leaders have lower slugging allowed. I think this is one of the cases where FIP lets you down. I bet you don't lead the league in SIERA (is it available for historical?), which is a better stat. All in all, on average your team would probably have an ERA between your FIP and your actual ERA if you replayed the season several times. I'm not sure the Zone Rating stat can really be trusted given how the game engine works. If somebody has any clue on how the game handles it, I would love to know.

07-20-2022, 07:04 PM	#10
BarneyRubble Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 173	It is curious.