Insane amount of Homeruns in a fictional sim

Blackjack · 06-18-2022, 04:37 PM

I started a 16 team fictional league in 1903 and simmed it through 1970 to see what would happen. Everything seemed to be ok until the 40's. Then Homerun totals exploded! Through 1970 at least 30 guys have hit 70 or more. The record being 102. I have auto recalc checked so i dont know why this is happening. And every other stat seems to be within reasonable parameters. Anyone have any ideas?

oldfatbaldguy · 06-18-2022, 05:37 PM

What kind of fictional league? I had one (in OOTP 21, I think) in which the program made almost all of the ballparks small. A guy hit 80 home runs one season, but it felt consistent with where he was doing it.

LansdowneSt · 06-18-2022, 06:52 PM

Did the league evolve. It's easy enough to check if "More offense" was triggered as a league-impacting event. I don't play fictional leagues, but I assume the league evolution toggles exist for such set-ups. The page to check is shown in a screenshot. It would list rule changes and other league-impacting circumstances.

Brad K · 06-18-2022, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blackjack

Anyone have any ideas?

The first thing that comes to my mind is its fictional.

Blackjack · 06-18-2022, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LansdowneSt

Did the league evolve. It's easy enough to check if "More offense" was triggered as a league-impacting event. I don't play fictional leagues, but I assume the league evolution toggles exist for such set-ups. The page to check is shown in a screenshot. It would list rule changes and other league-impacting circumstances.

automatic evolution was turned off

Blackjack · 06-18-2022, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

The first thing that comes to my mind is its fictional.

yes it was fictional. that doesn't mean it should be ridiculously unrealistic!

OmahaReynolds · 06-18-2022, 10:30 PM

I’ve experienced this as well in a long term fictional sim starting in 1985. Unfortunately, this is the current sim engine. I don’t think the devs are aware of the issue.

sprague · 06-19-2022, 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OmahaReynolds

I’ve experienced this as well in a long term fictional sim starting in 1985. Unfortunately, this is the current sim engine. I don’t think the devs are aware of the issue.

Same Omaha.
The new game engine is the problem. I once in a while used to get a player into 60 hr territory. Now players hit 85 regularly.
Same with strike outs and stolen bases. Top players in a year get way over board
I have gone back to 21 until a new patch arrives.

jpeters1734 · 06-19-2022, 01:37 PM

the fictional sim engine has always produced crazy HR #'s. Best way I know how to limit it, set league totals and modifiers to default. don't use auto calc but set your modifiers to what you want. I like more singles, less K's and HRs.

I also like to sim 20 years to flush out all the initial player creation and then I clear all league history

sprague · 06-19-2022, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

the fictional sim engine has always produced crazy HR #'s. Best way I know how to limit it, set league totals and modifiers to default. don't use auto calc but set your modifiers to what you want. I like more singles, less K's and HRs.

I also like to sim 20 years to flush out all the initial player creation and then I clear all league history

Curious why you play with the default league totals for ficitional leagues
a league with a .236 average, just 400 triples and 35000 k's
It has seemed strange to me that this set up was the "default" settings for a fictional league

NoOne · 06-19-2022, 05:28 PM

some players are different than others as a whole related to statistical output.

different eras
fictionally made for a draft
RL players digitized by some algorithm
Players that comce pre-generated for a new league
etc...

Any sort of transition from one to another can cause statistical oddities.

So, in a new fictional league, press that "autocalculate modifiers" button in Stats and AI screen every 3-5 years. Best to do this in ST or just before opening day when rosters are set... pro/con to each... if you do it in ST, maybe it understiates a bit, but since you'll have injuries, this may be best?? i've always done it on opening day before a game plays... once a game is played the button disappears.

the results will be more in tune with the League .Totals you see there. If you don't like the league totals, edit those first before autocalulating a set of modifiers. Do make sure they add up mathematically.... the babip, the walks etc all jive with the other values and stats derived from them.

it takes 20+ years to fully turnover a league... after that it'll remain consistent relative to fluctuation in player talent created over time. you may want to tweak individual modifiers for some fine tuning, but you won't need to use the autocalculate button unless you want to. Always change modifiers to affect results. Don't change totals except for any initial edit to set an intended baseline for results.

i'd also suggest not worrying so much about the league totals... pay more attention to the top performers in various stat categories and manipulate modifiers relative to what you want to see occur as far as what a high-end performance "should be." (*according to your preferences),. The totals may not be historically accurate but the individual results will be more in tune.

these two things obviously correlate, but a particular total and callibrated modifier don't always have the individual results we want.

this seems needlessly complicated... if ratings meant "1 thing" instead of potentially many, this would be avoidable and run smoother from era to era and from real to fictionally generated. maybe, a larger range than 0-255 would be needed to provide the diversity required for all eras. but as of now...depending on your totals and modfiers a 50 power means something totally different as far as what will result in any league that has different stats and ai settings et al..

Brad K · 06-19-2022, 07:28 PM

Instead of fictional players maybe those who what to play fictional would be better off setting up a historical random debut league and using the function that re-names all the players. That would surely prevent a human player from having the advantage of knowing a player's real life performance. That's fictional equivalency.

jpeters1734 · 06-19-2022, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sprague

Curious why you play with the default league totals for ficitional leagues
a league with a .236 average, just 400 triples and 35000 k's
It has seemed strange to me that this set up was the "default" settings for a fictional league

Because the league totals don't actually get you there. I'm very happy with this output.

andyhdz · 06-20-2022, 06:07 PM

If you don't autocalc every year youre going to have this problem. I have mine set to mimic 2008-2016 numbers and I don't have crazy homers. 125+ year sim.

southsidefan · 06-21-2022, 09:51 AM

I too seen this. I have a hybrid fictional league with real and fictional players currently in year 1915 with 1983 stat setup. I actually saw this starting with verson 22. It seems to me that the 5th starters on most teams were getting shellacked. Some were allowing 6 to 8 hrs consistently. If two fifth starters were facing each other, the combined hr total for the game could reach 13 with multiple players hitting 2 or more. I auto cal on opening day and that didn't help. What seems to be working at least for now is going into the player ratings editor of the 5th starters that are getting shellacked and cutting down their hr rating(some ratings were based on giving 40+ hrs in a 200ip season, I cut it down to upper 20s). It seems to help and as I spot the occasional reliever consistency getting shelled, I do check their hr rating to see if that is too high. My real pitchers (Christie Mathewson,Dutch Leonard and others) were not affected, it was only the fictional ones used to fil up the rosters of a 28 team league set in the early 1900's. Not all the fictional ones either, before version 22 these fictional players were actually nice scouting discoveries. After V22, they are struggling.Hope this helps

NoOne · 06-21-2022, 12:08 PM

i shoudln't have said for only fictional games..

i wouldn't autocalc every year unless a major shift in player talent is occuring -- like a change of eras or real modern platers->fictionally created, and only during the meat of the turnover.. in this case, more significant in the middle, small at start/end. every 3-5 years or more... and if they are well callibrated you don't have to do it at all.

if already midstream on a game, just tweak modifiers till you get what you want. with home runs, expect a +/- 10-12% variance in any year due to different player talent levels possible and an unchanging set of totals/modifiers. Some things, like SB, have more volatility. think this stuff is on a curve, so you may see different variance with smaller v larger totals. this info is good for a modern day or similar league.

if you see a hr total more than 10-12% above what you expect, that's a good time to reduce HR modifier a bit... otherwise it could be fine and more info needed. at that point it's just peace of mind as opposed to a major impact on a single player's output.

06-18-2022, 04:37 PM	#1
Blackjack Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 114	Insane amount of Homeruns in a fictional sim I started a 16 team fictional league in 1903 and simmed it through 1970 to see what would happen. Everything seemed to be ok until the 40's. Then Homerun totals exploded! Through 1970 at least 30 guys have hit 70 or more. The record being 102. I have auto recalc checked so i dont know why this is happening. And every other stat seems to be within reasonable parameters. Anyone have any ideas?

06-18-2022, 06:52 PM	#3
LansdowneSt Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: From Duxbury, Mass residing Baltimore Posts: 7,167	Did the league evolve. It's easy enough to check if "More offense" was triggered as a league-impacting event. I don't play fictional leagues, but I assume the league evolution toggles exist for such set-ups. The page to check is shown in a screenshot. It would list rule changes and other league-impacting circumstances. Attached Images

06-19-2022, 01:37 PM	#9
jpeters1734 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2014 Location: Juust a bit outside... Posts: 6,114	the fictional sim engine has always produced crazy HR #'s. Best way I know how to limit it, set league totals and modifiers to default. don't use auto calc but set your modifiers to what you want. I like more singles, less K's and HRs. I also like to sim 20 years to flush out all the initial player creation and then I clear all league history Attached Images __________________ "Cannonball Coming!" Go Bucs!! Founder and League Caretaker of the Professional Baseball Circuit, www.probaseballcircuit.com An Un-Official Guide to Minor League Management in OOTP 21 Ratings Scale Conversion Cross-Reference Cheat Sheet

06-19-2022, 05:28 PM	#11
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,258 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	some players are different than others as a whole related to statistical output. different eras fictionally made for a draft RL players digitized by some algorithm Players that comce pre-generated for a new league etc... Any sort of transition from one to another can cause statistical oddities. So, in a new fictional league, press that "autocalculate modifiers" button in Stats and AI screen every 3-5 years. Best to do this in ST or just before opening day when rosters are set... pro/con to each... if you do it in ST, maybe it understiates a bit, but since you'll have injuries, this may be best?? i've always done it on opening day before a game plays... once a game is played the button disappears. the results will be more in tune with the League .Totals you see there. If you don't like the league totals, edit those first before autocalulating a set of modifiers. Do make sure they add up mathematically.... the babip, the walks etc all jive with the other values and stats derived from them. it takes 20+ years to fully turnover a league... after that it'll remain consistent relative to fluctuation in player talent created over time. you may want to tweak individual modifiers for some fine tuning, but you won't need to use the autocalculate button unless you want to. Always change modifiers to affect results. Don't change totals except for any initial edit to set an intended baseline for results. i'd also suggest not worrying so much about the league totals... pay more attention to the top performers in various stat categories and manipulate modifiers relative to what you want to see occur as far as what a high-end performance "should be." (according to your preferences),. The totals may not be historically accurate but the individual results will be more in tune. these two things obviously correlate, but a particular total and callibrated modifier don't always have the individual results we want. this seems needlessly complicated... if ratings meant "1 thing" instead of potentially many, this would be avoidable and run smoother from era to era and from real to fictionally generated. maybe, a larger range than 0-255 would be needed to provide the diversity required for all eras. but as of now...depending on your totals and modfiers a 50 power means something totally different as far as what will result in any league that has different stats and ai settings et al.. Last edited by NoOne; 06-19-2022 at 05:35 PM.*

06-19-2022, 07:28 PM	#12
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,655 Infractions: 0/2 (3)	Instead of fictional players maybe those who what to play fictional would be better off setting up a historical random debut league and using the function that re-names all the players. That would surely prevent a human player from having the advantage of knowing a player's real life performance. That's fictional equivalency. __________________ . Pirates Play Moneyball 1951-2008 Ratings and League Totals Modifiers A new pre-calc file! (Applause!) Settings and Auto-calc Popular Opinions and Undisputable Facts The cover up is usually more damaging than the original act.

06-18-2022, 05:37 PM	#2
oldfatbaldguy Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 386	What kind of fictional league? I had one (in OOTP 21, I think) in which the program made almost all of the ballparks small. A guy hit 80 home runs one season, but it felt consistent with where he was doing it.

06-18-2022, 10:30 PM	#7
OmahaReynolds All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: New York Posts: 653	I’ve experienced this as well in a long term fictional sim starting in 1985. Unfortunately, this is the current sim engine. I don’t think the devs are aware of the issue.

06-20-2022, 06:07 PM	#14
andyhdz All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Fresno, CA by way of Texas Posts: 1,754	If you don't autocalc every year youre going to have this problem. I have mine set to mimic 2008-2016 numbers and I don't have crazy homers. 125+ year sim. __________________ *************************************** It's your game. Play it how you like it. ***************************************

06-21-2022, 09:51 AM	#15
southsidefan Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Chicago Posts: 36	I too seen this. I have a hybrid fictional league with real and fictional players currently in year 1915 with 1983 stat setup. I actually saw this starting with verson 22. It seems to me that the 5th starters on most teams were getting shellacked. Some were allowing 6 to 8 hrs consistently. If two fifth starters were facing each other, the combined hr total for the game could reach 13 with multiple players hitting 2 or more. I auto cal on opening day and that didn't help. What seems to be working at least for now is going into the player ratings editor of the 5th starters that are getting shellacked and cutting down their hr rating(some ratings were based on giving 40+ hrs in a 200ip season, I cut it down to upper 20s). It seems to help and as I spot the occasional reliever consistency getting shelled, I do check their hr rating to see if that is too high. My real pitchers (Christie Mathewson,Dutch Leonard and others) were not affected, it was only the fictional ones used to fil up the rosters of a 28 team league set in the early 1900's. Not all the fictional ones either, before version 22 these fictional players were actually nice scouting discoveries. After V22, they are struggling.Hope this helps

06-21-2022, 12:08 PM	#16
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,258 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	i shoudln't have said for only fictional games.. i wouldn't autocalc every year unless a major shift in player talent is occuring -- like a change of eras or real modern platers->fictionally created, and only during the meat of the turnover.. in this case, more significant in the middle, small at start/end. every 3-5 years or more... and if they are well callibrated you don't have to do it at all. if already midstream on a game, just tweak modifiers till you get what you want. with home runs, expect a +/- 10-12% variance in any year due to different player talent levels possible and an unchanging set of totals/modifiers. Some things, like SB, have more volatility. think this stuff is on a curve, so you may see different variance with smaller v larger totals. this info is good for a modern day or similar league. if you see a hr total more than 10-12% above what you expect, that's a good time to reduce HR modifier a bit... otherwise it could be fine and more info needed. at that point it's just peace of mind as opposed to a major impact on a single player's output.