Poopy pack luck

[TwanLX2000]

The luck of the draw always goes through seasons, but I’m sure that I’ve never began a year with this little pack luck. I feel like I’m been sitting around this past week waiting for things to happen, which is strange when easily doable missions are hanging in the balance.

[Lathum]

It's not just you. If I get a silver card in a pull I consider myself lucky. Gold and diamond, forget about it.

[Southern_Aristocrat]

I have 2898 cards in my deck at the moment. I've also sold every Live bronze, Silver, Gold and Diamond card I've ever got (hundreds upon hundreds) and a bunch of Live irons. I only bought about half a dozen cards, all for my Iron tournament roster.

I'm pulling garbage, the only thing that kept me ripping packs was inflated Live prices and a handful of tournament wins. I've pulled 4 OK diamond historical cards and 4 garbage historical diamond cards (you know the ones where you'd rather play a silver card) in that whole time. Never had a perfect card.

So lets do the math on perfect cards since it's the easiest, but based on just the 2898 cards in my deck (since I have no idea how many hundreds of live cards I sold). If I remember the calculation correctly the chance of someone not getting a perfect card after 2898 cards is:

(0.999)^(2898) = 5.5%

In fact, the chance of getting multiple perfects in that many cards is way higher than that. Anyhow as a free player this was my lottery and I lost.

Thanks for letting me rant, hope yer not having as bad luck as I am.



I

[kccrtrppua]

Originally Posted by TwanLX2000

The luck of the draw always goes through seasons, but I’m sure that I’ve never began a year with this little pack luck. I feel like I’m been sitting around this past week waiting for things to happen, which is strange when easily doable missions are hanging in the balance.

Ditto. I'm in a place where the Live 20 rewards don't help but completing the toppers is out of reach due to overpriced bronze and silver cards. I'm mostly bargain hunting, ripping lots of tourney packs, selling duplicates, and building a sustainable card flipping operation.

I haven't pulled a single perfect yet either and I get 15-25 packs per day from tourneys. I've pulled nine diamonds, one of which was a duplicate.

[TwanLX2000]

Originally Posted by kccrtrppua

Ditto. I'm in a place where the Live 20 rewards don't help but completing the toppers is out of reach due to overpriced bronze and silver cards. I'm mostly bargain hunting, ripping lots of tourney packs, selling duplicates, and building a sustainable card flipping operation.

I haven't pulled a single perfect yet either and I get 15-25 packs per day from tourneys. I've pulled nine diamonds, one of which was a duplicate.

I haven’t been nearly as fortunate with the tournaments, which has partly been an issue of access during the work day, but the 7-10 packs a day I’ve received has netted me exactly one Live diamond. I mean, I don’t expect it to stay that way, and there’s people that snagged three diamond + cards from the single diamond pack freebie yesterday, so I know the cards are out there. But I’m with you on the Live 20s not getting me started enough to build my operation.

I’ll continue to chug along; it’s just been like wading through mud this week.

[PuckettFan]

I was having awful luck, 1 live Ohtani perfect in the first 1000ish packs. In the next 500 (Basically since Sunday) I've pulled 4 more (Buxton, Tatis, Rogers, Degrom) live perfects and 1 historic perfect (Bill Gullickson)...

[PuckettFan]

Originally Posted by PuckettFan

I was having awful luck, 1 live Ohtani perfect in the first 1000ish packs. In the next 500 (Basically since Sunday) I've pulled 4 more (Buxton, Tatis, Rogers, Degrom) live perfects and 1 historic perfect (Bill Gullickson)...

Just pulled Degrom, Trout and Noodles Hahn after the Build a Lineup Drop within 100 packs

[Southern_Aristocrat]

Originally Posted by PuckettFan

Just pulled Degrom, Trout and Noodles Hahn after the Build a Lineup Drop within 100 packs

Good for you. I'm building up my live Irons apparently. Ripped about 60 packs since this morn and noting worth mentioning. Thanks for rubbing it in, much appreciated.

[TwanLX2000]

Originally Posted by Southern_Aristocrat

Good for you. I'm building up my live Irons apparently. Ripped about 60 packs since this morn and noting worth mentioning. Thanks for rubbing it in, much appreciated.

You just have to keep reading the market as best as you can. If those Live awards end up getting included in any further missions, it’s probably a month down the road, and we can easily kick the can until we can buy them back at half to a quarter of what they’re selling for now. You almost have to buy up the low historicals while you can.

[Southern_Aristocrat]

Originally Posted by TwanLX2000

You just have to keep reading the market as best as you can. If those Live awards end up getting included in any further missions, it’s probably a month down the road, and we can easily kick the can until we can buy them back at half to a quarter of what they’re selling for now. You almost have to buy up the low historicals while you can.

Is there even a reason to do the live missions? If last year is any guide the toppers are obsolete after a month. The only card I want is Atlanta's 82 rated Rabbit Maranville (defense!) but he's going on the market for 2000 so I might not even bother with that mission.

[TwanLX2000]

Originally Posted by Southern_Aristocrat

Is there even a reason to do the live missions? If last year is any guide the toppers are obsolete after a month. The only card I want is Atlanta's 82 rated Rabbit Maranville (defense!) but he's going on the market for 2000 so I might not even bother with that mission.

Only if they build for something else. Last year’s FH program required all the awards to be locked to move forward to the next set. I’ll wait and see, but it’s certainly not primarily for the reason of being played.

[Magus978]

Originally Posted by TwanLX2000

Only if they build for something else. Last year’s FH program required all the awards to be locked to move forward to the next set. I’ll wait and see, but it’s certainly not primarily for the reason of being played.

I'm using some of the rewards in bronze league play right now. Silver Rendon's hitting .325 with 66 RBI, Joe Sewell's hitting .349 and playing a mean SS defense, Josh Beckett's 12-4 with a 3.28 ERA in my hitter's paradise park, and the likes of Charles Nagy, Steve Busby, and Norm Charlton are performing fairly well too.

The player rewards are no slouches and can help you build a decent team early on as you accrue tournament packs.

[TwanLX2000]

Originally Posted by Magus978

I'm using some of the rewards in bronze league play right now. Silver Rendon's hitting .325 with 66 RBI, Joe Sewell's hitting .349 and playing a mean SS defense, Josh Beckett's 12-4 with a 3.28 ERA in my hitter's paradise park, and the likes of Charles Nagy, Steve Busby, and Norm Charlton are performing fairly well too.

The player rewards are no slouches and can help you build a decent team early on as you accrue tournament packs.

My Rendon had even been playing well at silver; mind you, I’ve been DHing him against lefties primarily and as a backup to Brooksie at third both ways. I don’t think they’re useless; they just won’t be playable in a few weeks if we wait to complete the missions.

[DotDash]

New PT, same as the last PT.
6 Perfect drops so far, all of them live. PT 22 started with 6 consecutive live Perfects as well. It took 6700 packs for my first good Perfect drop in PT22 (Tim McCarver.)

At the tail end of PT22 I opened so many packs that I even managed to pull multiple copies of 4 different (garbage) Perfect Non-Live cards within a three (?) week period. And yet I never packed one of the end-game top cards, Pedro, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, etc. I honestly don't think all cards drop at the same rate, which compounds the 'regular' bad luck that some players experience.