question about stats

[mleuck]

My league has played 28 games and I am a little concerned about the stats I am getting. The league is made up of ten teams, so the player (MLB) quality is high. It seems I am getting too many hits and lots of extra base hit and runs. The pitchers in this league are getting hit very hard!


This is my first experience with OOTP, so I am asking for your thoughts about my results so far. The league stats are attached.


Thank you

[mleuck]

No one has an opinion? Really?

[kev24fan]

How many games is a season?

[Sweed]

Sample size? As Kev24 notes, how many games in a season?

Need a lot more information to see what is going on.

First question is always, for me, going to be "did you autocalc" on the stats&ai tab on or before opening day? If not that could well be the cause of stats being a bit off of expectations.

Average for league looks high but we don't know what your league totals are so can't say for sure. HR a bit high, doubles a bit low, in ratio to what I would expect in my leagues but that is also LT (league total) dependent.

Screeshots of your "stats&ai" page showing your league totals would certainly help. Also at the bottom of the upper LT box you will see your expected
BA\obp\slg along with babip. If you autocalc your league should produce numbers close to these. If you don't? Well then the numbers may drift from a little to a lot of your LT "target" numbers.

Hope that helps.

[mleuck]

162 game season.
I probably did not auto calc. Where/how is that done? I will post the other info ASAP.


Thank you very much!

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by mleuck

162 game season.
I probably did not auto calc. Where/how is that done? I will post the other info ASAP.


Thank you very much!

League settings>stats & ai

Only available in preseason or ST. Best to do it on opening day BEFORE any games are played. Once a game is played autocalc cannot be run until the next
season.

If you're playing 162 games then 28 could certainly be a too small sample size.

In any case I would advise to read the manual about autocalc, League Totals, and League Total Modifiers. It's not complex, keeps your leagues statistically where you want it, and allows you to customize expected stats to almost anything you want. Also note there is a check box to tick to have this run each year automatically. I prefer to do mine manually as I like to see how the numbers change though, I would bet the vast majority check the box. A good idea as it means you can't forget.

[mleuck]

Is it possible to restart my season by deleting the stats and not losing the players and teams?

[Pelican]

There are so many variables to consider. One that occurred to me is whether your Carolina teams are playing in minor league stadiums. If so, those cozier dimensions could be the cause of the hitting numbers. The best pitchers in the game would have trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark in the smaller venues.

[mleuck]

My teams are all in MLB stadiums.

[Biggio509]

I would let the season play out and see what happens. You are 30 games in if it is a 162 game season they are 132 more to go. Aberrations can happen in less than 1/5 of the season. The game usually uses league totals to get a realistic outcome over a season.

In past versions the initial creation could be a little wonky and a lot of fictional players like to sim 5 years or so before they take over so the player distribution gets a bit more settled. I am not sure this is still the case in OOTP 23.

The main thing that is going to affect this if it is still off is the league totals settings those really guide all the probabilities to get league stats to something reasonable. You can pick different years like if you pitching dominance you can go back to league totals for the 70's or 80's. You can pick a steroid era year if you want a lot of HRs.

So if it continues it is fixable but I wouldn't panic over 30 games. I would give it at lest 80 or 90 games into the season to see if it working itself out.

I also don't know if you have spring training. Early rust can affect these numbers some. I am not sure how the game mechanics work for rust but I find even my good pitchers look bad sometimes in spring training but even out to be good over the year. I have found more often than not my pitchers are showing really high ERAs early in the season compared to what they are late in the season. A guy might be 5+ plus ERA early on and end up around 4.5 which isn't great but a lot better and ok for a 5 man if you aren't swimming in money. So it does seem pitchers tend to get better over the season barring injury.

So I would stick out the season before you worry about if you are getting numbers that aren't realistic. I am not going on data here but it does seem to me in the game and real life hitters tend to do better in the early season then pitchers knock off the all the rust they start reverting to mean.

[Biggio509]

Only a couple of seasons in but out of the tin settings on my fictional league do look a little hitter friendly. 2021 in real BA for the majors was .244. This is mine

This is batter friendly in my opinion. I might set back to 2017 to get my league totals and recalc next season.



This is the screen if you need help. You can select the year anytime but can't do an auto-recalc until preseason. It is an old practice I forgot to recalc every season. Thinking about if previous versions I often set financials and league stats to the year before because if you just left them at default it was a little off in fictional games.

[mleuck]

Thank you for all your time and assistance. I really appreciate it! I will let it play for now as you suggested. Then check again after 90-100 games.