The Groundhog Experiment

[luckymann]

I must admit that, as I dived ever deeper under the hood while doing my work on the NeL players, I was starting to have somewhat of a crisis of confidence in OOTP because of various things I was seeing.

So I decided to run a few sims and examine the outcomes, running full historicals from 1901 to 2016 under a variety of settings.

Long story short, if any of you are ever feeling the same way then I recommend you do this as well because it rams home what a thing of wonder this game is.

So much fun did I have while doing this, the idea came to me for what I am calling The Groundhog Experiment.

In this, and chronicled in this thread, I will be simultaneously running six parallel sims under the following set of criteria:

• R1 - 1-year recalc
• R3 - 3-year recalc
• R5x2 - 5-year recalc, double weighted
• D1 - development engine, TCR set at 1
• D100 - development engine, TCR set at 100
• D200 - development engine, TCR set at 200

In each, historical lineups and transactions will be used and players will miss seasons / retire as per history. A few hinky things can happen from 1901-05 using these, so I'm going to start in 1906 and go thru season 2016.

I will be running them concurrently and posting them season-by-season across the board, so we can follow the different continuums as they progress and see the divergences as they happen.

Won't provide too much info because that would be overkill and - as the famous meme once said - I ain't got time for that, pop! pop! pop! I'll just report on the various winners and milestones and HOF inductees and other points of interest as we roll along.

Before we start, let's have a look at how the leaderboards stand on 1 January, 1906.

And awaaayyyyy we go!

[beepollen]

Soundtrack to this exercise is Sonny and Cher, right?

[luckymann]

I got you, bee.

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Cleveland Naps (92-61)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (101-51)
• WORLD SERIES: Naps 4-1
• WS MVP: Elmer Flick

Awards

• AL MVP: Nap Lajoie
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner
• AL CYA: Rube Waddell
• NL CYA: Jack Pfiester
• AL ROY: Dave Altizer
• NL ROY: Whitey Alperman

Leaders



New season records

• Honus Wagner 36 caught stealing
• Billy Maloney 118 batter strikeouts
• Honus Wagner 10.56 WAR

Milestones

• Lave Cross 2500 hits
• Willie Keeler 1500 runs scored, 2500 hits
• Joe McGinnity 200 wins
• Kid Gleason 1000 runs scored
• Fred Tenney 1000 runs scored
• Fielder Jones 1000 runs scored

HOF inductees

Monte Ward, Tim Keefe, Old Hoss Radbourn, John Clarkson, Tony Mullane, Pud Galvin, Cap Anson, Mickey Welch


Other points of note

• Carl Lundgren no-hitter

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Philadelphia Athletics (82-62)
• NL CHAMPIONS: New York Giants (99-53)
• WORLD SERIES: Giants 4-1
• WS MVP: Cy Seymour

Awards

• AL MVP: Elmer Flick
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner
• AL CYA: Rube Waddell
• NL CYA: Jack Pfiester
• AL ROY: Harry Niles
• NL ROY: Whitey Alperman

Leaders




New season records

• Larry Schlafly 36 caught stealing
• Billy Maloney 115 batter strikeouts
• Honus Wagner 14.33 WAR
• Jack Pfiester OBA .173

Milestones

• Lave Cross 2500 hits
• Willie Keeler 1500 runs scored, 2500 hits
• Joe McGinnity 200 wins
• Kid Gleason 1000 runs scored
• Fred Tenney 1000 runs scored

HOF inductees

Monte Ward, Tim Keefe, Old Hoss Radbourn, John Clarkson, Tony Mullane, Pud Galvin, Cap Anson, Mickey Welch


Other points of note

• Pete O’Brien cycle
• Barney Pelty no-hitter
• Fred Beebe no-hitter

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Chicago White Sox (89-62)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Pittsburgh Pirates (95-58)
• WORLD SERIES: White Sox 4-3
• WS MVP: Patsy Daugherty

Awards

• AL MVP: George Stone
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner
• AL CYA: Rube Waddell
• NL CYA: Vic Willis
• AL ROY: Dave Altizer
• NL ROY: Whitey Alperman

Leaders




New season records

• Art Devlin 41 caught stealing
• Honus Wagner 11.50 WAR

Milestones

• Lave Cross 2500 hits
• Willie Keeler 1500 runs scored, 2500 hits
• Joe McGinnity 200 wins
• Kid Gleason 1000 runs scored
• Fred Tenney 1000 runs scored
• Fielder Jones 1000 runs scored

HOF inductees

Monte Ward, Tim Keefe, Old Hoss Radbourn, John Clarkson, Tony Mullane, Pud Galvin, Cap Anson, Mickey Welch


Other points of note

• Doc Scanlan no-hitter

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Cleveland Naps (88-65)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (95-57)
• WORLD SERIES: Naps 4-1
• WS MVP: Terry Turner

Awards

• AL MVP: Nap Lajoie
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh
• NL CYA: Lefty Leifield
• AL ROY: Dave Altizer
• NL ROY: Jim Nealon

Leaders




New season records

• Billy Maloney 35 caught stealing
• Honus Wagner 11.98 WAR
• Roy Thomas 139 BB

Milestones

• Lave Cross 2500 hits
• Willie Keeler 1500 runs scored, 2500 hits
• Joe McGinnity 200 wins
• Kid Gleason 1000 runs scored
• Fred Tenney 1000 runs scored
• Fielder Jones 1000 runs scored

HOF inductees

Monte Ward, Tim Keefe, Old Hoss Radbourn, John Clarkson, Tony Mullane, Pud Galvin, Cap Anson, Mickey Welch


Other points of note

• Jack Hayden 6-hit game
• Nick Altrock no-hitter
• Joe McGinnity no-hitter
• George Mullin no-hitter
• Nap Lajoie 32-game hit streak

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Cleveland Naps (92-61)
• NL CHAMPIONS: New York Giants (96-56)
• WORLD SERIES: Giants 4-3 (after trailing 3-1)
• WS MVP: Spike Shannon

Awards

• AL MVP: George Stone
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner
• AL CYA: Rube Waddell
• NL CYA: Jack Pfiester
• AL ROY: Fred Payne
• NL ROY: Jim Nealon

Leaders




New season records

• Honus Wagner 35 caught stealing, 10.25 WAR

Milestones

• Lave Cross 2500 hits
• Willie Keeler 1500 runs scored, 2500 hits
• Joe McGinnity 200 wins
• Kid Gleason 1000 runs scored

HOF inductees

Monte Ward, Tim Keefe, Old Hoss Radbourn, John Clarkson, Tony Mullane, Pud Galvin, Cap Anson, Mickey Welch


Other points of note

• Doc Scanlan no-hitter
• Jack Taylor no-hitter

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Cleveland Naps (93-60)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (105-47)
• WORLD SERIES: Cubs 4-2
• WS MVP: Frank Chance

Awards

• AL MVP: Nap Lajoie
• NL MVP: Roger Bresnahan
• AL CYA: Bill Bernhard
• NL CYA: Jack Pfiester
• AL ROY: Harry Niles
• NL ROY: Johnny Bates

Leaders




New season records

• Elmer Flick 36 caught stealing
• Billy Maloney 118 batter strikeouts
• Jack Pfiester OBA .177, WHIP 0.78

Milestones

• Lave Cross 2500 hits
• Willie Keeler 1500 runs scored, 2500 hits
• Joe McGinnity 200 wins
• Kid Gleason 1000 runs scored
• Fred Tenney 1000 runs scored
• Fielder Jones 1000 runs scored

HOF inductees

Monte Ward, Tim Keefe, Old Hoss Radbourn, John Clarkson, Tony Mullane, Pud Galvin, Cap Anson, Mickey Welch


Other points of note

• Jake Weimer no-hitter
• Walter Clarkson no-hitter
• Jack Pfiester no-hitter

[luckymann]

I'll just make some observations about some of the things that happen in the various sims each season vs IRL.

• IRL this was of course an all-Chicago WS, with the White Sox’s “hitless wonders” beating the heavily-favoured Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance Cubs, bursting – if you will – their gonfalon bubble.
• There was no official record kept of CS until around 1913.
• BBRef lists Honus Wagner’s 1906 WAR as 9.3.
• Of the 8 HOF inductees, only Tony Mullane isn’t in there IRL.
• Billy Maloney did actually lead the MLB in strikeouts in 1906 with 116.
• In 1906, Jack Pfiester’s IRL WHIP was 0.941 and I can’t for the life of me find where OBA is listed on BBRef (anyone?).
• Barney Pelty, The Yiddish Curver, has the lowest career ERA of any Jewish pitcher, 2.63, which is 0.12 lower than Sandy Koufax. His 1906 IRL ERA of 1.59 was the Browns’ franchise low. He also acted as a fill-in umpire in a couple games! But he never threw a no-hitter.
• As far as I can ascertain, Pete O’Brien never hit for the cycle. Nor Doc Scanlan, Carl Lundgren, Nick Altrock who made a PH appearance in 1933 aged 57), Joe McGinnity, Jake Weimer, Walter Clarkson (brother of HOFer John), or Jack Pfiester ever throw a no-hitter.
• George Mullin did, however, hurl one in 1912.
• Joe Nealon, who led the D1 in RBI with 103 and the D100 with 103, led the NL IRL with 83. 1906 was his rookie season and he only played one more year before disappearing.
• George Stone won the AL batting title IRL with a BA of 358, just as he did in D100 with 360 and R5x2 with 343.

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Detroit Tigers (88-62)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (98-54)
• WORLD SERIES: Cubs 4-1
• WS MVP: Solly Hofman

Awards

• AL MVP: Elmer Flick
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [2]
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh
• NL CYA: Orval Overall
• AL ROY: Simon Nicholls
• NL ROY: Mike Mitchell

Leaders




New season records

• Honus Wagner 12.25 WAR
• Rube Waddell 1.37 FIP

Milestones

• 2500 hits: George Davis
• 2000 hits: Fred Clarke
• 1500 runs: Bill Dahlen
• 1000 RBI: Nap Lajoie, Honus Wagner
• 1000 runs: Nap Lajoie, Jimmy Collins, Honus Wagner
• 450 wins: Cy Young
• 200 wins: Al Orth
• 2000 K: Rube Waddell

HOF inductees

Billy Hamilton, Roger Connor, Charlie Buffinton


Other points of note

• Miller Huggins 6-hit game
• Rube Waddell 24 K game (19 IP)
• Perfect Game: Jack Pfiester
• No-hitter: Doc Scanlan

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Philadelphia Athletics (78-67)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Pittsburgh Pirates (92-62)
• WORLD SERIES: Pirates 4-2
• WS MVP: Fred Clarke

Awards

• AL MVP: Elmer Flick [2]
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [2]
• AL CYA: Rube Waddell [2]
• NL CYA: Deacon Phillippe
• AL ROY: Heinie Wagner
• NL ROY: Mike Mitchell

Leaders




New season records

• Rube Waddell 1.690 FIP

Milestones

• 2500 hits: George Davis
• 2000 hits: Fred Clarke
• 1500 runs: Bill Dahlen
• 1000 RBI: Nap Lajoie, Honus Wagner
• 1000 runs: Fielder Jones, Jimmy Collins, Honus Wagner
• 450 wins: Cy Young
• 200 wins: Al Orth
• 2000 K: Rube Waddell

HOF inductees

Billy Hamilton, Roger Connor


Other points of note

• John Anderson 6-hit game.
• No-hitters: Mordecai Brown, Buster Brown (no relation), Frank Corridon and Lew Moren.

[beepollen]

Originally Posted by luckymann

I got you, bee.

(golf clap)

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Philadelphia Athletics (85-60)
• NL CHAMPIONS: New York Giants (94-59)
• WORLD SERIES: Giants 4-0
• WS MVP: Christy Mathewson

Awards

• AL MVP: Elmer Flick
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [2]
• AL CYA: Rube Waddell [2]
• NL CYA: Christy Mathewson
• AL ROY: Simon Nicholls
• NL ROY: Mike Mitchell

Leaders




New season records

• Danny Hoffman 111 batter strikeouts

Milestones

• 2500 hits: George Davis
• 2000 hits: Fred Clarke
• 1500 runs: Bill Dahlen
• 1000 RBI: Nap Lajoie, Honus Wagner
• 1000 runs: Jimmy Collins,
• 450 wins: Cy Young
• 200 wins: Al Orth
• 2000 K: Rube Waddell

HOF inductees

Billy Hamilton


Other points of note

• Nap Lajoie edges out Ty Cobb on the final day of the regular season for the AL batting title
• No-hitters: Orval Overall, Addie Joss, Andy Coakley
• Christy Mathewson has the league’s first 30-game winning season in the modern era.

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Cleveland Naps (93-59)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (100-52)
• WORLD SERIES: Naps 4-3
• WS MVP: Elmer Flick

Awards

• AL MVP: Nap Lajoie [2]
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [2]
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh [2]
• NL CYA: Mordecai Brown [1]
• AL ROY: Joe Birmingham
• NL ROY: Ed Konetchy

Leaders




New season records

• Miller Huggins 48 CS
• Honus Wagner 12.93 WAR
• Ed Walsh 1.555 FIP
• Art Hoelskoetter 49 SH

Milestones

• 2500 hits: George Davis
• 2000 hits: Fred Clarke
• 1500 runs: Bill Dahlen
• 1000 RBI: Nap Lajoie, Honus Wagner
• 1000 runs: Jimmy Collins, Nap Lajoie, Honus Wagner
• 200 wins: Al Orth, Jesse Tannehill

HOF inductees

Billy Hamilton, Roger Connor


Other points of note

• No-hitter: Eddie Plank
• Perfect Game: Roy Patterson

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Chicago White Sox (89-62)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (108-44)
• WORLD SERIES: Cubs 4-0
• WS MVP: Jimmy Sheckhard

Awards

• AL MVP: Ty Cobb
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [2]
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh
• NL CYA: Orval Overall
• AL ROY: Red Downs
• NL ROY: Mike Mitchell

Leaders




New season records

• Miller Huggins 45 CS
• Ollie Pickering 123 batter strikeouts
• Honus Wagner 11.98 WAR

Milestones

• 2500 hits: George Davis
• 2000 hits: Fred Clarke
• 1500 runs: Bill Dahlen, George Davis
• 1000 RBI: Nap Lajoie, Honus Wagner
• 1000 runs: Fielder Jones, Fred Tenney, Jimmy Collins, Nap Lajoie, Honus Wagner
• 450 wins: Cy Young
• 200 wins: Al Orth

HOF inductees

Billy Hamilton, Roger Connor


Other points of note

• No-hitters: Ed Reulbach, Lew Moren

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Cleveland Naps (95-57)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (100-52)
• WORLD SERIES: Cubs 4-2
• WS MVP: Jack Pfiester

Awards

• AL MVP: Danny Murphy
• NL MVP: Harry Steinfeldt
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh
• NL CYA: Jack Pfiester [2]
• AL ROY: Joe Birmingham
• NL ROY: Mike Mitchell

Leaders




New season records

• Dave Altizer 42 CS
• Jack Pfiester .164 OBA, 0.776 WHIP

Milestones

• 2500 hits: George Davis
• 2000 hits: Fred Clarke
• 1500 runs: Bill Dahlen
• 1000 RBI: Nap Lajoie
• 1000 runs: Jimmy Collins, Nap Lajoie
• 450 wins: Cy Young
• 200 wins: Al Orth

HOF inductees

Billy Hamilton, Roger Connor, Charlie Buffinton


Other points of note

• No-hitter: Jimmy Dygert
• Harry Steinfeldt 33-game hit streak

[luckymann]

• The IRL season marks the emergence of Ty Cobb as the game’s best player, as he drives the Tigers all the way to the World Series, although the Cubs beat them handily in 5 (with one tie). So problematic, however, is his relationship with teammates, management, fans, the world, that they offer him straight up to Cleveland for Elmer Flick. The Naps wisely decline the offer...
• See my 1906 comment re Jack Pfiester and Doc Scanlan’s lack of IRL no-nos. The game sure likes the latter, though, in this regard—that’s three he’s got across the GE already.
• Bunk Congalton never won a batting title and his highest BA IRL was 320 in 1906. Neither Solly Hofman nor Danny Murphy did either.
• Addie Joss, despite his short career, pitched 2 no-nos, including a perfecto in 1908.
• Neither of the Brown boys ever pitched a no-hitter. Same goes for Frank Corridon, Lew Moren (another the game seems to like in this regard, with two in the sim so far), Orval Overall, Andy Coakley, Ed Reulbach, or Jimmy Dygert.
• The most strikeouts Rube Waddell ever had in a game was 16 in 1908. He did, however, lead the league in K 8 of 9 seasons between 1900 and 1908, finishing second the other time.
• Miller Huggins, more famous as a manager than player, led the NL in walks a number of times but, as far as I can tell, never had a 6-hit game.
• Fred Glade doesn’t even have a leaderboard appearance for ERA.
• The mighty “Gettysburg” Eddie Plank did a lot of things in the game, but throwing a no-no wasn’t amongst them.
• Roy Patterson never threw a no-hitter of any sort, let alone a perfect game.
• Roger Connor and Billy Hamilton have plaques at C-Town. Charlie Buffinton does not.
• Ollie Pickering led AL hitters with 75 strikeouts in 1903.

[luckymann]

Results

• AL CHAMPIONS: Chicago White Sox (88-64)
• NL CHAMPIONS: Chicago Cubs (96-58)
• WORLD SERIES: Cubs 4-2 (1st title)
• WS MVP: Solly Hofman

Awards

• AL MVP: Sam Crawford
• NL MVP: Honus Wagner [3]
• AL CYA: Ed Walsh [2]
• NL CYA: Mordecai Brown
• AL ROY: Gavvy Cravath
• NL ROY: John Wilson

Leaders




New career records

• Cy Young 2582 K

New season records

• Eddie Grant 40 CS
• Joe Tinker 13.87 WAR
• Frank Smith 9 SV
• Lew Moren .185 OBA, 5.77 H/9

Milestones

• 200 wins: Vic Willis, Jack Chesbro
• 2000 hits: Honus Wagner, Nap Lajoie, Fred Tenney, Jimmy Collins
• 2500 K: Cy Young
• 1500 runs: George Davis

HOF inductees

Ed Delahanty


Other points of note

• Sam Crawford won the AL Triple Crown and hit for the cycle
• No-hitters: Mordecai Brown, Jen Dubuc

[Brad K]

Have any differences in the results of the different settings become evident?