Difference between "adjust" and "weaken" - Page 2

thehef · 10-20-2021, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

I sure hope it's been explained wrong.

Why? Not saying I think that's the way it should be, but I'm just very interested in your thoughts on it.

Brad K · 10-20-2021, 10:37 PM

As far as I can tell 250 ABs over 1 year is as reliable as 250 ABs over 3 years.

Rain King · 10-20-2021, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

As far as I can tell 250 ABs over 1 year is as reliable as 250 ABs over 3 years.

That isn't true, but also just divide the flipping number by 3 if you are doing a 3-year recalc and believe that is the case. Problem solved. I feel like you are trolling these threads at this point.

Brad K · 10-21-2021, 08:32 PM

I don't know that it's not true. So please explain. And if it is not true, don't mistake ignorance for trolling.

Garlon · 10-22-2021, 01:13 AM

If you are using the default batter import setting of 300 AB and 1 yr recalc then any player under 300 AB will be adjusted. If you select 3yr recalc this goes to 300*3 = 900 AB, and with 5yr recalc this will be 300*5 = 1500 AB. This is why I suggest lower import values with 3yr and 5yr recalc.

My suggestion is 200/67 for batter imports because this is still 600 AB over 3 seasons and 1000 AB over 5 seasons.

thehef · 10-22-2021, 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garlon

If you are using the default batter import setting of 300 AB and 1 yr recalc then any player under 300 AB will be adjusted.

If the player has 250 AB, will his 250 AB's be un-adjusted, and then 50 adjusted AB's added to that? That was my understanding from one of your posts in another thread.

Garlon · 10-22-2021, 02:32 AM

Yes, the player real AB will count and only the difference between the import settings and the player AB will be adjusted. So a player with 250 AB will get 50 adjusted AB added in to their statistics before the ratings are made if 300 AB is used for the import setting.

Brad K · 10-23-2021, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garlon

If you are using the default batter import setting of 300 AB and 1 yr recalc then any player under 300 AB will be adjusted. If you select 3yr recalc this goes to 300*3 = 900 AB, and with 5yr recalc this will be 300*5 = 1500 AB. This is why I suggest lower import values with 3yr and 5yr recalc.

My suggestion is 200/67 for batter imports because this is still 600 AB over 3 seasons and 1000 AB over 5 seasons.

For some reason I didn't correlate the suggestion for reducing the ABs with the increase to 3 or 5 years rating base. Thanks for the clarification.

Rain King suggested cutting the import setting to 1/3 for three year. Is there a disadvantage to that?

Also if double weight for current year is selected on 3 year recalc, would the standard for imports be 900 ABs or 1200 ABs?

Brad K · 10-29-2021, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain King

That isn't true, but also just divide the flipping number by 3 if you are doing a 3-year recalc and believe that is the case. Problem solved. I feel like you are trolling these threads at this point.

Would you be willing to explain why 250 ABs over three years isn't the same as 250 ABs over 1 year?

Brad K · 10-29-2021, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garlon

Yes, the player real AB will count and only the difference between the import settings and the player AB will be adjusted. So a player with 250 AB will get 50 adjusted AB added in to their statistics before the ratings are made if 300 AB is used for the import setting.

What would be the advantages and disadvantages if any of Rain King's suggestion to use 1/3 of the default for 3 year recalc?

Rain King · 10-29-2021, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

Would you be willing to explain why 250 ABs over three years isn't the same as 250 ABs over 1 year?

Because players change over time and also because stringing together multiple years of small sample sizes is just not the same statistically as a larger sample from a shorter period of time if you are trying to get a snapshot of a player.

This is especially true when we are talking about professional baseball where small sample sizes over the course of a season are typically a result of either injury or (even more likely) just not being good enough to play more.

But if you don't believe that to be the case it is just fine and dandy, you can make the 3-year recalc based on 83 or 84 ABs per year which will stretch to approx. 250 ABs over the 3 years and magically, you have less adjusting.

Brad K · 10-30-2021, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain King

Because players change over time and also because stringing together multiple years of small sample sizes is just not the same statistically as a larger sample from a shorter period of time if you are trying to get a snapshot of a player.

In this situation we don't have the option of a larger sample size over a shorter period.

People who use 3 year recalc aren't interested in a single year snapshot of a player.

Rain King · 10-30-2021, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

In this situation we don't have the option of a larger sample size over a shorter period.

People who use 3 year recalc aren't interested in a single year snapshot of a player.

Why do you ask questions if you do not care about the answers?

Brad K · 10-30-2021, 08:17 PM

I care about answers that address the situation. Your "snapshot" explanation doesn't address the question of why taking a third doesn't work for 3 year recalc. If you misstated the situation just say so and let's move on. to something else.

Rain King · 10-30-2021, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

the question of why taking a third doesn't work for 3 year recalc

I do not understand what you mean by this.

Rain King · 10-30-2021, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

What would be the advantages and disadvantages if any of Rain King's suggestion to use 1/3 of the default for 3 year recalc?

This isn't an answerable question. It is subjective.

What it will do, if that is what you actually meant to ask, is make it so that players need 1/3 fewer at-bats over that 3 year period to avoid having their ratings adjusted.

Garlon · 10-31-2021, 10:49 AM

The explanation Rain King gave is very good. If you use 84 AB with 3yr recalc that comes out to 252 AB over 3 seasons. There will be many players who will exceed that amount of AB over 3 seasons meaning that there will be fewer adjusted players in the league. However, 250 AB total over 3 seasons is somewhat low of a sample.

If you are doing 1yr recalc replay the 300 AB default setting is pretty good, but the average team will probably have about 7 players with 300+ AB in a given season, so you end up with the rest of your bench players getting adjusted.

If you are creating a career league and use say 5yr recalc, my suggestion is to use 167/50 or 200/50. This way even rookies who only have 3 seasons of statistics will still need 167*3 = 501 AB or 200*3 = 600 AB over their first 3 seasons so they will not be adjusted in the game.

10-21-2021, 08:32 PM	#24
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	I don't know that it's not true. So please explain. And if it is not true, don't mistake ignorance for trolling. Last edited by Brad K; 10-21-2021 at 08:41 PM.

10-20-2021, 10:37 PM	#22
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	As far as I can tell 250 ABs over 1 year is as reliable as 250 ABs over 3 years.

10-22-2021, 01:13 AM	#25
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,371	If you are using the default batter import setting of 300 AB and 1 yr recalc then any player under 300 AB will be adjusted. If you select 3yr recalc this goes to 3003 = 900 AB, and with 5yr recalc this will be 3005 = 1500 AB. This is why I suggest lower import values with 3yr and 5yr recalc. My suggestion is 200/67 for batter imports because this is still 600 AB over 3 seasons and 1000 AB over 5 seasons.

10-22-2021, 02:32 AM	#27
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,371	Yes, the player real AB will count and only the difference between the import settings and the player AB will be adjusted. So a player with 250 AB will get 50 adjusted AB added in to their statistics before the ratings are made if 300 AB is used for the import setting.

10-30-2021, 08:17 PM	#34
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	I care about answers that address the situation. Your "snapshot" explanation doesn't address the question of why taking a third doesn't work for 3 year recalc. If you misstated the situation just say so and let's move on. to something else.

10-31-2021, 10:49 AM	#37
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,371	The explanation Rain King gave is very good. If you use 84 AB with 3yr recalc that comes out to 252 AB over 3 seasons. There will be many players who will exceed that amount of AB over 3 seasons meaning that there will be fewer adjusted players in the league. However, 250 AB total over 3 seasons is somewhat low of a sample. If you are doing 1yr recalc replay the 300 AB default setting is pretty good, but the average team will probably have about 7 players with 300+ AB in a given season, so you end up with the rest of your bench players getting adjusted. If you are creating a career league and use say 5yr recalc, my suggestion is to use 167/50 or 200/50. This way even rookies who only have 3 seasons of statistics will still need 1673 = 501 AB or 2003 = 600 AB over their first 3 seasons so they will not be adjusted in the game.