No players being taken in Rule 5 Draft

Situational_Lefty · 09-24-2021, 11:42 AM

While running through some test sims, I noticed a very strange trend of hardly anyone being taken in the winter Rule 5 draft. The sims were being run on the standard MLB live start. I believe that the first year the draft looked normal, with roughly 10-12 players being picked. The second year only a couple, and then the following several years no one was picked.

I searched but I didn't see any previous posts reporting this issue, so I was wondering if anyone else was seeing the same thing. Something appears to be quite off if there are multiple years without any Rule 5 picks.

RchW · 09-24-2021, 11:58 AM

In theory that's a good thing. Means that the AI isn't leaving good players unprotected. In more practical terms it could mean that prospect development is a little low such that there isn't a surplus, which is exactly what Rule 5 is designed to do; redistribute the surplus.

brotherblues · 09-24-2021, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

In theory that's a good thing. Means that the AI isn't leaving good players unprotected. In more practical terms it could mean that prospect development is a little low such that there isn't a surplus, which is exactly what Rule 5 is designed to do; redistribute the surplus.

Good points and I agree with all of it. Still, from the OP's standpoint, the bottom line is that IRL there are a number of players taken every year, and he's not seeing it in his sim.

RchW · 09-24-2021, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brotherblues

Good points and I agree with all of it. Still, from the OP's standpoint, the bottom line is that IRL there are a number of players taken every year, and he's not seeing it in his sim.

And the beauty of OOTP means they can adjust for that.

brotherblues · 09-24-2021, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

And the beauty of OOTP means they can adjust for that.

Such as... maybe cranking up development speed modifier to 1.15 or so?

Sweed · 09-24-2021, 01:02 PM

For what it's worth in my long running "import dynasty" my rule 5 draft always has players being selected. My league started many years ago in v4 (2002) so through attrition has become a fictional player league.

Maybe this has to do with starting with live start and real draft classes, (I assume live start use the real classes when it advancec?), IE the league has to mature before things settle in?

RchW · 09-24-2021, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brotherblues

Such as... maybe cranking up development speed modifier to 1.15 or so?

From 1.0? Possibly. Like Sweed said, maybe it will self correct over time.

My leagues are fully fictional from creation and I used to do a player age distribution graph in very early versions of OOTP to help set dev and aging mods. Since v13-14 I haven't had to do much tweaking.

FWIW see my settings. I haven't played this league since v19/v20 so a little surprised to see TCR at 100. I usually do 110.

Situational_Lefty · 09-24-2021, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

In theory that's a good thing. Means that the AI isn't leaving good players unprotected. In more practical terms it could mean that prospect development is a little low such that there isn't a surplus, which is exactly what Rule 5 is designed to do; redistribute the surplus.

There is actually a decent amount of good players that are showing available in the Rule 5 draft pool. Just none of them get drafted.

kosmos412 · 09-24-2021, 02:23 PM

I'm Currently in 2030...and there haven't been many picks in the last few Rule 5 drafts. I do recall that in 2021, 2022 etc. at the start of the save there were definitely picks. So maybe I'm chalking it up to after so many years the AI is more settled in their roster constructs? I don't know.

Situational_Lefty · 09-24-2021, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweed

For what it's worth in my long running "import dynasty" my rule 5 draft always has players being selected. My league started many years ago in v4 (2002) so through attrition has become a fictional player league.

Maybe this has to do with starting with live start and real draft classes, (I assume live start use the real classes when it advancec?), IE the league has to mature before things settle in?

I thought it might have something to do with the live start, so I then just began a MLB game from the beginning of the season. I'm still getting the same result. The first Rule 5 players get picked, the next a few players, and after that no one gets picked.

In OOTP21 and previous versions, I never saw this. There would always be a decent amount of players picked in the draft.

NoOne · 09-24-2021, 03:15 PM

they have to stay on ML roster for entire year. Most rule 5's fail. So, it's probably helping the AI more than hurting it by avoiding these crapshoots. Yes, i'd rather it work like RL too, but bigger picture here...

some excerpt:

"Most years, 80-90% of one-time Rule 5 picks either don't play or accumulate 0 WAR. That means that in the first year after being drafted, 35% don't play, while 55% occupy a Major League roster and play at replacement level. Five years removed, 70% of Rule 5 picks aren't playing, but at least most of those who do are competent Major Leaguers."

So, small potatoes in big picture. Yes, it should work better but other things have much larger impact that need a little grease too.

The ai has a hard enough time as it is.. i think it chooses not to use 1/26 slots on a rule 5 player when other options are similar and more options involved as far as where they can be stashed. A smarter move in the video game when considering relative talent of players involved and limitiations of AI.

Could reduce year of MiL control by 1? I'm a big fan of that in the MLB (and reducing max length contact to 7). Greater spending efficiency results.. fewer deadweight players being paid 30-40m/year. Signing first real contract a year or 2 earlier as ooposed to some pinko club control rules (LOL)

Anyway, by doing that in MiL it may force more quality players into rule 5 and at younger ages. More tough decisions to be made... younger players not being held back by a line in front of them as much. Instead of stashing, more likely a team drafts them with greater need. I like to remove option years too. It just gunks up the financial system and mostly helps a human more than the ai.. definitely a speedbump to talent entering league. End up with 2nd contract going into mid and late 30's and that ends badly more than not... something the AI never avoids.

RchW · 09-24-2021, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Situational_Lefty

There is actually a decent amount of good players that are showing available in the Rule 5 draft pool. Just none of them get drafted.

Do teams typically keep the 40 man roster full? Put another way, a team can't draft in rule 5 without at least 1 spot open.

Edit. Also the prospect drafted must be capable of playing. Most rule 5 picks get returned.

Sweed · 09-24-2021, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Situational_Lefty

I thought it might have something to do with the live start, so I then just began a MLB game from the beginning of the season. I'm still getting the same result. The first Rule 5 players get picked, the next a few players, and after that no one gets picked.

In OOTP21 and previous versions, I never saw this. There would always be a decent amount of players picked in the draft.

How about a fictional league with MLB setup? I haven't started a game with current real rosters since 2002 so, I'm speculating here. My thought is OOTP's first draft classes are human made, not game generated. From posts I've read over time, these players are hand rated a bit differently to try to hit certain expectations for the near future. Could this lead to teams having more talent organization wide than teams in a fictional setting with game generated only players? Less holes that need filling the less rule 5 picks?

Then over time, as the OOTP human made draft classes and real players are replaced by attrition, will this issue begin to fix itself?

RchW's post about full 40 man rosters could also tie in with my thoughts. More talent than a normal fictional league leads to more 40 man rosters that are full?

Situational_Lefty · 09-24-2021, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweed

How about a fictional league with MLB setup? I haven't started a game with current real rosters since 2002 so, I'm speculating here. My thought is OOTP's first draft classes are human made, not game generated. From posts I've read over time, these players are hand rated a bit differently to try to hit certain expectations for the near future. Could this lead to teams having more talent organization wide than teams in a fictional setting with game generated only players? Less holes that need filling the less rule 5 picks?

Then over time, as the OOTP human made draft classes and real players are replaced by attrition, will this issue begin to fix itself?

RchW's post about full 40 man rosters could also tie in with my thoughts. More talent than a normal fictional league leads to more 40 man rosters that are full?

I have simmed up until the late 2030s and am still seeing the same issue of no Rule 5 draft picks. By then the league has a large % of fictional players. I guess I could try simming a fictional league, but since I play MLB with real players I'm not sure that would do me much good.

In regards to the 40 man roster I took a closer look. Yes, all the teams starting in about year 3 of the league have full 40 man rosters during the Rule 5 draft. But they aren't protecting more talent. It looks like on the day of the draft teams will fill in whatever empty spots are in the 40 man with scrub players.

For example a team had 35 players on the 40 man, so they will add a 36 year old AAA catcher or a few relievers on minor league contracts in their late 30s.

Sweed · 09-24-2021, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Situational_Lefty

I have simmed up until the late 2030s and am still seeing the same issue of no Rule 5 draft picks. By then the league has a large % of fictional players. I guess I could try simming a fictional league, but since I play MLB with real players I'm not sure that would do me much good.

In regards to the 40 man roster I took a closer look. Yes, all the teams starting in about year 3 of the league have full 40 man rosters during the Rule 5 draft. But they aren't protecting more talent. It looks like on the day of the draft teams will fill in whatever empty spots are in the 40 man with scrub players.

For example a team had 35 players on the 40 man, so they will add a 36 year old AAA catcher or a few relievers on minor league contracts in their late 30s.

40 man rosters in my league are not all filled by AI teams. I wonder why some have this and others do not? FWIW I do not use full minors but instead enable "ghost players". Maybe without as many players in my game there is less chance of 40 man rosters being filled? Again just speculation on my part.

Situational_Lefty · 09-24-2021, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweed

40 man rosters in my league are not all filled by AI teams. I wonder why some have this and others do not? FWIW I do not use full minors but instead enable "ghost players". Maybe without as many players in my game there is less chance of 40 man rosters being filled? Again just speculation on my part.

I actually decided to run a test sim on a fictional player league using the MLB set up like you had mentioned. I simmed 10 seasons and the Rule 5 Draft worked correctly. The draft generally had 10 to 15 picks or so. This is what I was used to seeing in my OOTP21 game with real MLB players.

It is very strange to me that in fictional leagues it appears to work fine, but in real MLB leagues, no one makes any selections.

billyray1984 · 09-27-2021, 10:19 AM

Maybe this is just due to variance or the way the talent pool developped in your league ?

I'm currently running an historical sim with the Expos (historical rookie with amateur draft, no fictional players, no recalc) and more than a decade in, the AI is still picking a decent number of players on average altough the talent pool in the Rule 5 draft has worsened considerably the last few years : it's mostly left handed starters and catchers that get picked since for whatever reason, the talent pool league wise is really bad there.

09-24-2021, 11:42 AM	#1
Situational_Lefty Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 265	No players being taken in Rule 5 Draft While running through some test sims, I noticed a very strange trend of hardly anyone being taken in the winter Rule 5 draft. The sims were being run on the standard MLB live start. I believe that the first year the draft looked normal, with roughly 10-12 players being picked. The second year only a couple, and then the following several years no one was picked. I searched but I didn't see any previous posts reporting this issue, so I was wondering if anyone else was seeing the same thing. Something appears to be quite off if there are multiple years without any Rule 5 picks.

09-24-2021, 11:58 AM	#2
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	In theory that's a good thing. Means that the AI isn't leaving good players unprotected. In more practical terms it could mean that prospect development is a little low such that there isn't a surplus, which is exactly what Rule 5 is designed to do; redistribute the surplus. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

09-24-2021, 01:02 PM	#6
Sweed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Iowa Posts: 6,970	For what it's worth in my long running "import dynasty" my rule 5 draft always has players being selected. My league started many years ago in v4 (2002) so through attrition has become a fictional player league. Maybe this has to do with starting with live start and real draft classes, (I assume live start use the real classes when it advancec?), IE the league has to mature before things settle in?

09-24-2021, 02:23 PM	#9
kosmos412 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 27	I'm Currently in 2030...and there haven't been many picks in the last few Rule 5 drafts. I do recall that in 2021, 2022 etc. at the start of the save there were definitely picks. So maybe I'm chalking it up to after so many years the AI is more settled in their roster constructs? I don't know.

09-24-2021, 03:15 PM	#11
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	they have to stay on ML roster for entire year. Most rule 5's fail. So, it's probably helping the AI more than hurting it by avoiding these crapshoots. Yes, i'd rather it work like RL too, but bigger picture here... some excerpt: "Most years, 80-90% of one-time Rule 5 picks either don't play or accumulate 0 WAR. That means that in the first year after being drafted, 35% don't play, while 55% occupy a Major League roster and play at replacement level. Five years removed, 70% of Rule 5 picks aren't playing, but at least most of those who do are competent Major Leaguers." So, small potatoes in big picture. Yes, it should work better but other things have much larger impact that need a little grease too. The ai has a hard enough time as it is.. i think it chooses not to use 1/26 slots on a rule 5 player when other options are similar and more options involved as far as where they can be stashed. A smarter move in the video game when considering relative talent of players involved and limitiations of AI. Could reduce year of MiL control by 1? I'm a big fan of that in the MLB (and reducing max length contact to 7). Greater spending efficiency results.. fewer deadweight players being paid 30-40m/year. Signing first real contract a year or 2 earlier as ooposed to some pinko club control rules (LOL) Anyway, by doing that in MiL it may force more quality players into rule 5 and at younger ages. More tough decisions to be made... younger players not being held back by a line in front of them as much. Instead of stashing, more likely a team drafts them with greater need. I like to remove option years too. It just gunks up the financial system and mostly helps a human more than the ai.. definitely a speedbump to talent entering league. End up with 2nd contract going into mid and late 30's and that ends badly more than not... something the AI never avoids.

09-27-2021, 10:19 AM	#17
billyray1984 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jun 2021 Posts: 216	Maybe this is just due to variance or the way the talent pool developped in your league ? I'm currently running an historical sim with the Expos (historical rookie with amateur draft, no fictional players, no recalc) and more than a decade in, the AI is still picking a decent number of players on average altough the talent pool in the Rule 5 draft has worsened considerably the last few years : it's mostly left handed starters and catchers that get picked since for whatever reason, the talent pool league wise is really bad there.