For Science - Sunday Pack Rip Session - Page 2

professor ape · 08-19-2021, 01:52 PM

With the packs I earn from tournaments, I have a good number of cards to sell off on a regular basis. My general strategy is:
- Only sell duplicates with the exception of live 100s and historical cards which sell for an obscene amount. My one mega pull this year has been Noodles Hahn last month. The 700K I got for him (after tax) was way more valuable in completing missions than the card itself.
- Quick sell any Iron with a L10 of less than 20, Bronze with an L10 of less than 40, and Silvers less than 125, Gold less than 1200, and Diamond less than 4500.
- Put other routine duplicates up for auction for 24 hours with a start price a little below the L10 and the Buy It Now one below the L10. The goal is to unload them at a fair price as quickly as possible.
- Set those to automatically QuickSell when the auction expires if their L10 is below 25 for Iron, 50 for Bronze, 140 for Silver, 1300 for Gold, and 4700 for Diamond. It’s just not worth the time or auction slots to try to squeeze a few points out of these cards.
- Handle more expensive cards on a case by case. Are they part of missions? Is a live update coming up where cards could jump a level?

Because I have been focused on finishing missions, I haven’t been that active in speculating about cards which may appear in future missions. I may be shifting gears a bit at this point now that I am caught up.

ncap99 · 08-20-2021, 01:28 PM

Here is the latest update and some notes:
-Changed % chance to 1/5 instead of 1/6 for everything except BALs which made a very big difference in the "expected" fields. I had incorrectly assumed for standard packs you were guaranteed one bronze or better, rather than always getting at least 1 bronze.
-My bad luck on historical diamonds finally passed, I ended up getting 5 in about 250 packs to pull close the expected total. Overall I am actually well ahead in total diamonds just a bad % on them rolled non live and many non live rolled POTM. It'll probably take about 6-8k packs to even out, your mileage may very.
-I continue to have pretty solid luck on historical golds and silvers.
-Live perfects continue to be stingy, none in the last 500 packs. Still more or less on track with historical perfects.
-The expected average (and in turn, the expected count) column is based on a 30% non live rate on cards. Still well below a sample size that could be considered definitive but it is possible the % chance is lower on diamonds, and perhaps scales lower as the card value increases. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

dac4m · 08-22-2021, 10:03 AM

You think you had bad luck.. was bored this weekend, had nothing to spend points on.
Bought 395 packs. Zero perfects. I realize the odds are to get two. Didn't count diamonds but am pretty sure I didn't get 15.8 of those either. Nor did I get one of the new cards released this week. I realize this is "random" but out of 2370 cards, I don't know... I saw Mythic Quest on Apple TV, think it may be true to life

ncap99 · 08-22-2021, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dac4m

You think you had bad luck.. was bored this weekend, had nothing to spend points on.
Bought 395 packs. Zero perfects. I realize the odds are to get two. Didn't count diamonds but am pretty sure I didn't get 15.8 of those either. Nor did I get one of the new cards released this week. I realize this is "random" but out of 2370 cards, I don't know... I saw Mythic Quest on Apple TV, think it may be true to life

No perfects for me between packs 1000-1641, so I know how that goes. I only pulled one diamond between packs 1500-1641 which is really bad - I should have pulled around 6. It definitely feels bad but I just keep telling myself given enough packs I'll eventually average out which means a run of perfects is coming, hopefully soon!

dac4m · 08-24-2021, 09:16 PM

OK, about 600 packs ripped for me since Friday
2 perfects- both live
Last 150 pack- 0 perfects. 2 diamonds (Both Bieber live)

I realize this is "random" but seriously????
expected

makes me disinclined to play this. I know you win some, you lose some. but this is just stupid

ncap99 · 08-25-2021, 03:02 AM

I know it sucks sometimes, but given enough time and packs it will even out. I didn't get a historical diamond for the first 830 packs I opened as part of this project, and only 1 in the first 1242 packs. I've got 8 in the last 472 packs now. None of them were particularly good but sold for probably about an average of 20k/each or were cards I didn't have yet. You'll hit a good streak eventually.

professor ape · 08-25-2021, 08:26 AM

I’m just getting ready for at least a week of closely tracking data following next Monday’s Live update so that I can keep the packs flowing from my tournament team.

Clavette · 08-25-2021, 03:46 PM

Pack cold streaks are rough. I've had a few runs that I've said forget it and take a break for a day or two

ncap99 · 08-25-2021, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clavette

Pack cold streaks are rough. I've had a few runs that I've said forget it and take a break for a day or two

Yes they do. I can remember a few times doing this tracking project where I'd by 100 packs at once and go 15-20 packs without even a silver. But without that there wouldn't be much fun ripping a 100k+ card either. The system is designed to lose you money, and earning packs really isn't that hard if you put together a decent bronze team (which would cost you under 10000PP even as a new player).

I think the most important takeaway of this project is that you shouldn't spend another cent on packs. Save up and buy specific cards you need and hope you get good dice rolls on the packs you earn in tournaments. For every person that rips a Noodles or a Dickey there are a hundred other people who get what I have or worse (because honestly I have done pretty good overall).

professor ape · 08-25-2021, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ncap99

Yes they do. I can remember a few times doing this tracking project where I'd by 100 packs at once and go 15-20 packs without even a silver. But without that there wouldn't be much fun ripping a 100k+ card either. The system is designed to lose you money, and earning packs really isn't that hard if you put together a decent bronze team (which would cost you under 10000PP even as a new player).

I think the most important takeaway of this project is that you shouldn't spend another cent on packs. Save up and buy specific cards you need and hope you get good dice rolls on the packs you earn in tournaments. For every person that rips a Noodles or a Dickey there are a hundred other people who get what I have or worse (because honestly I have done pretty good overall).

I’m a F2P and therefore put most of my effort into my tournament team as that is my source of packs. It has been challenging but quite rewarding as I have completed every available mission and am in my ninth straight week at Diamond. I’ve made the playoffs as a wildcard the last two weeks including my first trip to the LCS at this level. My next goal is to win a division at Diamond and to win a pennant. A trip to the Perfect League to get my ass handed to me for a week would be the dream.

ncap99 · 08-27-2021, 09:12 AM

Latest Update.
-Run on historical diamonds continues, almost to my expected count. Pulled 4 in 71 packs from 1909-1976!
-Pulled 2 live perfects in the span of 5 packs, rng is crazy sometimes.

ncap99 · 08-29-2021, 12:39 PM

2500 pack update.
-Historical Diamond comeback complete, I'm now exactly at the expected amount. Took a bit but just goes to show you that you'll eventually average out given enough time and packs.
-2 more live perfects, nothing quite as disappointing as seeing that black border and pulling another Corbin Burnes or Buxton. I think 5 of my perfects have been those 2 guys.

HermanSmutley · 08-29-2021, 01:13 PM

Blimey, if it takes 2500 packs to get the expected average that’s me done for. The 100 or so packs opened in the last week have produced a couple of live diamond and gold cards and absolutely nothing else. I’m actually wondering if they include Silver, Future Legend and Negro League cards in standard packs anymore as I have had none.

ncap99 · 08-29-2021, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HermanSmutley

Blimey, if it takes 2500 packs to get the expected average that’s me done for. The 100 or so packs opened in the last week have produced a couple of live diamond and gold cards and absolutely nothing else. I’m actually wondering if they include Silver, Future Legend and Negro League cards in standard packs anymore as I have had none.

Future Legend and Negro League cards are really rare, at least from what I've observed. A total of 35 in 15,000 cards (both combined) for me is really nuts, especially considering what a huge set the negro league cards are.

dac4m · 08-29-2021, 04:28 PM

I'm at about 1200 packs since last weekend, perhaps more.. don't feel like counting
7200 cards. 4 perfects- All live (Berlinger, realmuto, woodruff, trout)-
0 historical perfects

Between our 2 rips. it seems that the "odds" of a perfect are not 1 in 1000. Seems closer to 1 in 2000.

Yes I guess odds can go either way but it seems in our small sample size ,someone has the finger on the no historical perfect cards.

ncap99 · 08-29-2021, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dac4m

I'm at about 1200 packs since last weekend, perhaps more.. don't feel like counting
7200 cards. 4 perfects- All live (Berlinger, realmuto, woodruff, trout)-
0 historical perfects

Between our 2 rips. it seems that the "odds" of a perfect are not 1 in 1000. Seems closer to 1 in 2000.

Yes I guess odds can go either way but it seems in our small sample size ,someone has the finger on the no historical perfect cards.

I'm sure someone will come post they ripped 3 in the 5 twitch drop packs they got today so it all evens out in the end! I would settle for a top shelf diamond at this point.

ncap99 · 08-31-2021, 10:04 PM

3000 pack update

Nothing too interesting, did ok I guess. 2 perfects both of them Woodruff. Still waiting for that elusive 3rd historical perfect. It has been about 2200 packs without one, or 0-11,000 in terms of chances.

I should add that although I've spent money on packs early in the season I have spent a grand total of $0 since I started this project and opened 3000 packs in a little over 2 weeks...just some encouragement for newer players thinking they have to take out a 2nd mortgage to be competitive

thejojo · 09-01-2021, 01:39 AM

So how did you get enough besides selling off most of what you get?

HermanSmutley · 09-01-2021, 03:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ncap99

3000 pack update

Nothing too interesting, did ok I guess. 2 perfects both of them Woodruff. Still waiting for that elusive 3rd historical perfect. It has been about 2200 packs without one, or 0-11,000 in terms of chances.

I should add that although I've spent money on packs early in the season I have spent a grand total of $0 since I started this project and opened 3000 packs in a little over 2 weeks...just some encouragement for newer players thinking they have to take out a 2nd mortgage to be competitive

I enjoy playing the tournaments but despise opening the packs (those identical iron faces looking back at you all the time).
I admire your patience.

Hertston · 09-01-2021, 06:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HermanSmutley

I enjoy playing the tournaments but despise opening the packs (those identical iron faces looking back at you all the time).

Yeah.. it does get so you have a better idea what some of these guys look like than their own wives and mothers do

.

08-19-2021, 01:52 PM	#21
professor ape All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: The belly of the beast Posts: 1,498	With the packs I earn from tournaments, I have a good number of cards to sell off on a regular basis. My general strategy is: - Only sell duplicates with the exception of live 100s and historical cards which sell for an obscene amount. My one mega pull this year has been Noodles Hahn last month. The 700K I got for him (after tax) was way more valuable in completing missions than the card itself. - Quick sell any Iron with a L10 of less than 20, Bronze with an L10 of less than 40, and Silvers less than 125, Gold less than 1200, and Diamond less than 4500. - Put other routine duplicates up for auction for 24 hours with a start price a little below the L10 and the Buy It Now one below the L10. The goal is to unload them at a fair price as quickly as possible. - Set those to automatically QuickSell when the auction expires if their L10 is below 25 for Iron, 50 for Bronze, 140 for Silver, 1300 for Gold, and 4700 for Diamond. It’s just not worth the time or auction slots to try to squeeze a few points out of these cards. - Handle more expensive cards on a case by case. Are they part of missions? Is a live update coming up where cards could jump a level? Because I have been focused on finishing missions, I haven’t been that active in speculating about cards which may appear in future missions. I may be shifting gears a bit at this point now that I am caught up. __________________

08-20-2021, 01:28 PM	#22
ncap99 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 319	Here is the latest update and some notes: -Changed % chance to 1/5 instead of 1/6 for everything except BALs which made a very big difference in the "expected" fields. I had incorrectly assumed for standard packs you were guaranteed one bronze or better, rather than always getting at least 1 bronze. -My bad luck on historical diamonds finally passed, I ended up getting 5 in about 250 packs to pull close the expected total. Overall I am actually well ahead in total diamonds just a bad % on them rolled non live and many non live rolled POTM. It'll probably take about 6-8k packs to even out, your mileage may very. -I continue to have pretty solid luck on historical golds and silvers. -Live perfects continue to be stingy, none in the last 500 packs. Still more or less on track with historical perfects. -The expected average (and in turn, the expected count) column is based on a 30% non live rate on cards. Still well below a sample size that could be considered definitive but it is possible the % chance is lower on diamonds, and perhaps scales lower as the card value increases. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues. Last edited by ncap99; 08-20-2021 at 01:34 PM.

08-25-2021, 08:26 AM	#27
professor ape All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: The belly of the beast Posts: 1,498	I’m just getting ready for at least a week of closely tracking data following next Monday’s Live update so that I can keep the packs flowing from my tournament team. __________________

08-31-2021, 10:04 PM	#37
ncap99 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 319	3000 pack update Nothing too interesting, did ok I guess. 2 perfects both of them Woodruff. Still waiting for that elusive 3rd historical perfect. It has been about 2200 packs without one, or 0-11,000 in terms of chances. I should add that although I've spent money on packs early in the season I have spent a grand total of $0 since I started this project and opened 3000 packs in a little over 2 weeks...just some encouragement for newer players thinking they have to take out a 2nd mortgage to be competitive Last edited by ncap99; 08-31-2021 at 10:06 PM.

09-01-2021, 01:39 AM	#38
thejojo Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 393	So how did you get enough besides selling off most of what you get? __________________ [IMG]https://challenge.ootpdevelopments.com/pt24signatures/thejojo.jpg[IMG]

08-22-2021, 10:03 AM	#23
dac4m Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 73	You think you had bad luck.. was bored this weekend, had nothing to spend points on. Bought 395 packs. Zero perfects. I realize the odds are to get two. Didn't count diamonds but am pretty sure I didn't get 15.8 of those either. Nor did I get one of the new cards released this week. I realize this is "random" but out of 2370 cards, I don't know... I saw Mythic Quest on Apple TV, think it may be true to life

08-24-2021, 09:16 PM	#25
dac4m Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 73	OK, about 600 packs ripped for me since Friday 2 perfects- both live Last 150 pack- 0 perfects. 2 diamonds (Both Bieber live) I realize this is "random" but seriously???? expected makes me disinclined to play this. I know you win some, you lose some. but this is just stupid

08-25-2021, 03:02 AM	#26
ncap99 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 319	I know it sucks sometimes, but given enough time and packs it will even out. I didn't get a historical diamond for the first 830 packs I opened as part of this project, and only 1 in the first 1242 packs. I've got 8 in the last 472 packs now. None of them were particularly good but sold for probably about an average of 20k/each or were cards I didn't have yet. You'll hit a good streak eventually.

08-25-2021, 03:46 PM	#28
Clavette Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Connecticut Posts: 371	Pack cold streaks are rough. I've had a few runs that I've said forget it and take a break for a day or two

08-27-2021, 09:12 AM	#31
ncap99 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 319	Latest Update. -Run on historical diamonds continues, almost to my expected count. Pulled 4 in 71 packs from 1909-1976! -Pulled 2 live perfects in the span of 5 packs, rng is crazy sometimes.

08-29-2021, 12:39 PM	#32
ncap99 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 319	2500 pack update. -Historical Diamond comeback complete, I'm now exactly at the expected amount. Took a bit but just goes to show you that you'll eventually average out given enough time and packs. -2 more live perfects, nothing quite as disappointing as seeing that black border and pulling another Corbin Burnes or Buxton. I think 5 of my perfects have been those 2 guys.

08-29-2021, 01:13 PM	#33
HermanSmutley Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2021 Location: England Posts: 97	Blimey, if it takes 2500 packs to get the expected average that’s me done for. The 100 or so packs opened in the last week have produced a couple of live diamond and gold cards and absolutely nothing else. I’m actually wondering if they include Silver, Future Legend and Negro League cards in standard packs anymore as I have had none.

08-29-2021, 04:28 PM	#35
dac4m Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 73	I'm at about 1200 packs since last weekend, perhaps more.. don't feel like counting 7200 cards. 4 perfects- All live (Berlinger, realmuto, woodruff, trout)- 0 historical perfects Between our 2 rips. it seems that the "odds" of a perfect are not 1 in 1000. Seems closer to 1 in 2000. Yes I guess odds can go either way but it seems in our small sample size ,someone has the finger on the no historical perfect cards.