random stretch of bad

[TwanLX2000]

After an expected disaster of a season in diamond, my woes are carrying over in gold with the best roster in my division. At this rate I'll be pushed to silver next week, and everyone will assume I lost on purpose.

All said, I seem to have the best rotation in my division and my lineup is underperforming from previous seasons, but my pitchers are collectively pitching to twice their FIP -- in other words, I'm not giving up home runs or walks at a crazy pace. My pitcher BABIPs are insanely high, so while that can scream of bad luck, it's more likely atrocious defense. This is doubly sucktastic since my park factors keep the ball from going over the fence at an alarming rate, so my offense plays to it's contact strength, but isn't used to having to outscore the other team this greatly when every ball is getting through the infield.

I made some changes at 2B and my backup middle infielder last season that seem to be reaping some awful results. Aside from Fernandez 100 (who I'm a card away from apprehending), are there any guys who can play both 2B/SS worth a lick in gold? Otherwise, I'm going to have to carry four middle infielders, which will further reduce my hitting depth.

[professor ape]

It’s still early in the season. You’ll probably go on a run soon, especially if you have a solid rotation.

[ncap99]

Originally Posted by TwanLX2000

I made some changes at 2B and my backup middle infielder last season that seem to be reaping some awful results. Aside from Fernandez 100 (who I'm a card away from apprehending), are there any guys who can play both 2B/SS worth a lick in gold? Otherwise, I'm going to have to carry four middle infielders, which will further reduce my hitting depth.

Who are you using in the middle now? Defensive overall rating isn't a great metric to go by, range tends to be the most important factor in my experience. You'll get a SS or 2B overall defensive rating propped up by a huge double play rating which doesn't really matter if they can't get to the ball in the first place, or having a cannon arm at 2B really isn't all that useful.

[TwanLX2000]

Originally Posted by ncap99

Who are you using in the middle now? Defensive overall rating isn't a great metric to go buy, range tends to be the most important factor in my experience. You'll get a SS or 2B overall defensive rating get propped up by a huge double play rating which doesn't really matter if they can't get to the ball in the first place, or having a cannon arm at 2B really isn't all that useful.

Thanks for the explanation on the ratings. I currently have McAuliffe there after effectively using the 89 Evers for weeks in gold, but I was playing around with multiple guys while I was in diamond because neither bat will hold up there.

[TwanLX2000]

Originally Posted by professor ape

It’s still early in the season. You’ll probably go on a run soon, especially if you have a solid rotation.

I was 10-18 when I posted this and I'm back to .500 once my bats came alive today. I do know that I'll need help up the middle (C, 2B, SS, and CF) if I want to compete in diamond, so I'm just trying to find the most economical options until I can hit big on a pack.

[sdw1000]

Personally I think the whole thing is rigged. I won a rookie league with 118 wins. Same team and I am sitting here struggling. And the other teams aren't exactly full of Hall of Famers unlike my team.

[ncap99]

Don't forget about park factors. In lower levels people will probably not bother with it, but diamond and especially PeL it makes a huge difference. You'll see strats like loading up 5 lefty starters and suppressing right handed hitting in your home park. Some people will suppress HRs but increase doubles/triples and batting average, then run a ton of high gap/contact line drive hitters.

You'll also see some people (although it is still fairly uncommon in my experience) start to use openers and if you don't have your strategy set for opener lineups you could be pretty vulnerable if you run high split guys, which most teams will by diamond level because the pitching is so oppressive.

Also watch out for the trap cards like Hack Wilson who might do really well in bronze/silver and even gold but then you start to see high stuff pitchers where his low avoid K and contact make him a trashcan.

[lightningbolts35]

I'm not going to pull any punches, this version of Perfect Team is total garbage. I currently have 4 players with well over 97 contact rating, excellent gap power hitting below .190 in a hitter friendly park. I have a guy with huge power numbers who has hit 2 homeruns in over 50 games. Those same players are playing for other teams in my division playing the same teams and pitching that I am and are hitting well over .280 and have double digit home runs in parks with .900 HR set up. All the strategy in the world can't make up for the computer picking and choosing which Giambi, Vaughn, Robinson, etc are going to hit and which ones will not. I currently have 4 starting players with the dreaded snowflake. Why? Your guess is as good as mine. I guess it means the ratings on the cards mean nothing!

I have played this game for the last 3 seasons and have won many Diamond & Perfect League Chanpionships so I know how to play the game. But this year's version is absolutely terrible. No player with well over 100 contact rating and over 100 eye should be hitting .167 with only 18 walks in 50+ games. Thats just ridiculous. Much less having 4 of them in one starting line up.

And while I'm on my soap box, I'll say the Wildcard team constantly beating the best team in the entire league is getting old. I know it can happen sometimes but it happens way too often. The best team may not always win it all, but as I was coming up through the ranks, it happened 4 seasons in a row. I can understand you may lose to the 2nd or 3rd best team but to constantly get knocked out by a team with 30 less wins and you may have lost to them once in the regular season is BS. Also, way to many come from behind victories. Last week, I had the best bullpen ERA, 2nd best Defense Eff, and was 18-37 in one run games. Those numbers don't compute in baseball on any level. Just more proof the computer simulates games randomly and the game backfills to meet the score. I've seen teams with negative run differential that are 12 games over .500. That just is not realistic.

This year's version is totally random and there is no rhyme or reason for your team winning and losing. I improved my team dramatically (according to the BS ratings that are put on the cards) from last week as far as the hitting goes and I'm hitting far worse. This will be the last time I play this slot machine known as Perfect Team as it has gotten worse year after year. Sorry...

[trainwreck]

PT is like Gump's box of chocolates.

[bailey]

Originally Posted by lightningbolts35

This year's version is totally random and there is no rhyme or reason for your team winning and losing. I improved my team dramatically (according to the BS ratings that are put on the cards) from last week as far as the hitting goes and I'm hitting far worse. This will be the last time I play this slot machine known as Perfect Team as it has gotten worse year after year. Sorry...

Let's be realistic.

1)There are 40 teams in Perfect League and 720 in Diamond League.

2) At this time, there are over 200 teams that have essentially completed all of the collections.

3) Over 200 teams have the same cards, and a few more have McGraw, Hahn, and similar.

4) It is impossible to have any differentiation at the top (that doesn't cost thousands of dollars) and therefore, you are right, PT22 is totally random at the top, but there is a reason for it.

[lightningbolts35]

Originally Posted by bailey

Let's be realistic.

1)There are 40 teams in Perfect League and 720 in Diamond League.

2) At this time, there are over 200 teams that have essentially completed all of the collections.

3) Over 200 teams have the same cards, and a few more have McGraw, Hahn, and similar.

4) It is impossible to have any differentiation at the top (that doesn't cost thousands of dollars) and therefore, you are right, PT22 is totally random at the top, but there is a reason for it.

I totally agree with you. I think they need to develop more variety of top end cards to try to keep teams from being the exact same. When you complete a card mission, there should be say 3 different cards you could get by finishing the mission...you only get one of them and you don't get to choose. And the cards should be very similar in card ratings so that you don't just keep getting the worst card in the lot everytime. I realize the big spenders will go get the card they want on the auction house but I still think this option is better than what we have now which is just about every team being identical. My hope is the developers start putting just as much effort in top end cards as they seem to do with bronze and stone cards (which in my opinion there are far too many)

The other thing that needs done, in my opinion is too limit the "randomness" of a player. Far too much stat variation of the same player. For instance, if a player has a 100 contact, the lowest that player can be in that stat for any given year is 95 contact. It is ridiculous to me the a player who should hit high .270 to .300 bats .167 for the entire year. That's just ridiculous. I'm not saying they should tear it up every year but I've seen players in the game with very high stat ratings that never reach anything close to that mark, and that's just wrong in my view. That's what keeps it from really being a game where your players and strategies matter and more a game of chance. Same goes for pitchers. My Craig Kimbrell, in 20 appearances with all the stuff, movement, and control his card shows, has a 12.76 ERA. That's just insane.

These are just my opinions...

[Hertston]

Originally Posted by bailey

Let's be realistic.

1)There are 40 teams in Perfect League and 720 in Diamond League.

2) At this time, there are over 200 teams that have essentially completed all of the collections.

3) Over 200 teams have the same cards, and a few more have McGraw, Hahn, and similar.

4) It is impossible to have any differentiation at the top (that doesn't cost thousands of dollars) and therefore, you are right, PT22 is totally random at the top, but there is a reason for it.

Surely the card set identified in 3) and 4) should itself provide considerable room for differentiation in what is fielded, considering the changes in strategy available? I'm thinking here of other collectable card games rather than anything to do with baseball, which frequently have far smaller card sets but much wider variation in the decks experienced players choose to play?

I just wonder how much of this is a remnant of the herd mentality regarding the 'best cards' visible early on? Ditto with strategies. There's a hell of a lot of difference between sabermetric and tactician or small ball, with a corresponding variety of players best suited to play them if you have the cards to choose from. They should all be at least playable, as should tweaked variations on them (within reason), otherwise why are they even there? Or, as I've never been more than a tourist in diamond, am I just being naive in this respect?

[professor ape]

Lot’s of interesting discussions here. I agree that the results for players week to week do feel more random than they should. However, it is easy to attribute bad seasons to hidden manipulations of card ratings. One thing that I have learned is that there is more statistical noise that you would think in samples even as large as full seasons. Kimbrel having a 12 ERA in twenty appearances is obviously crazy high but I expect that we are talking about no more than twenty innings. That’s nothing.

[professor ape]

As an addition, I took the league totals from the current season to create a “Joe Average” player. He’s a guy who on average will hit with a .257/.326/.405 line with 16 or 17 HRs. I ran a hundred seasons of 650 PA for Joe. The results show just how much random noise there is even with that many plate appearances.
Joe went everywhere from a pathetic line of .212/.294/.331 up to an All-Star level of .296/.366/.539. Joe’s HRs ranged from 8 to 30, walks from 41 to 73, and Ks from 96 to 149.
I’m not saying that the game doesn’t nerf players’ ratings from season to season (I honestly don’t know if they do or not), but the reality is that dumb luck can have a huge impact on even a full season of stats.

[Southern_Aristocrat]

The variability in performance is wild. In my diamond league the top teams with my players are going crazy MVP seasons. My same players not so much, even my Pete Rose is only slightly above replacement player. Anyhow my point is RNG in this game is utterly insane. Made the finals in diamond league a few weeks ago with a crap team that wonderfully outperformed... Last I played perfect team was 2020, which was pretty stable in player performance. Apparently the $$$ gambler's fix is to increase the variableness of outcomes to promote uncertainty.

[ncap99]

Isn't a "normalization" process run before the start of every season? So 100 contact rating isn't just 100 contact rating, and if every player had 100 contract rating on every team that would essentially be "average" not good. If it is average it is designed to (with a high enough sample size) equal out to what a typical league average number would be in the corresponding counting/average stat. This leads directly to wild variations when you are near the league average.

So I think what you're describing is the fact that contact/eye/avoid K is once again the preferred stats so everyone runs cards high in them, effectively making them worse, which in turn requires higher amounts to make it good again.

At this point to be have a good contact rating in diamond+ we're talking 105-110.

[Tinkerman]

Just don't get a weaker than average team promoted to Diamond. Then it's less RNG, and more OMG