If the Babe Had Stayed - A Play in Three Acts

[luckymann]

Not a heck of a lot more to add here so I'll keep it brief.

The Sox finished at a really strong 90-64, some 15 games improved upon their IRL 75-79. But the Indians were just too good again. A rough finish made this race seem more comfortable than it was, but still Cleveland never seriously looked like losing.

For all the Babe's heroics, his 11.8 WAR was still a full 1.1 less than his IRL 12.9, with his other main metrics also just a tick below the historical. That said, I must retract my earlier comment about the AI not knowing what to do with him because the replication ended up being fairly accurate:

Slash: sim 375/502/771 vs IRL 372/512/846
2B: 28 v 44
3B: 9 v 16
HR: 52 v 59
RBI: 134 v 168
OPS+: 227 v 239

As I mentioned earlier, the support players also made a huge difference for the Sox, as did Pennock, who contributed 4 more WAR than IRL.

Sadly, it simply wasn't enough.

The Indians finished with almost the identical record to the historical, and if you really want to drill it down to one big differential, I'd have to say Riggs Stephenson's performance in the sim (7.6 WAR vs 1.3 IRL) is as good as any. Those 6.3 wins get them over the line.

And what of the Yankees?

Fairly straightforward, really. At 86-68, they finished 12 games worse off than their AL-pennant-winning IRL 98-56. In other words, Ruth’s contribution. Mays’ production was down 4.2 WAR, but Schang’s was up 3.2. Other big names such as Waite Hoyt, Roger Peckinpaugh and Bob Meusel were pretty much washes overall. Menosky’s 5 WAR fits in among the interstices.

1922 is Pennock's final year at Boston, and I'd have to say it is the last strong chance the Sox have of earning a trip to the Big Dance.

Roll on '22.

[luckymann]

1921 Major Awards

• AL MVP: Babe Ruth (Boston) 375/502/771 / 52 HR / 134 RBI / 536 wOBA / 227 OPS+ / 11.8 WAR.
• NL MVP: Rogers Hornsby (St. Louis) 403/473/697 = NL TRIPLE CROWN / 32 HR / 128 RBI / 497 wOBA / 202 OPS+ / 10.9 WAR.
• AL CYA: Herb Pennock (Boston) 25-13 / 2.76 / 103 K / 306 IP / 83 FIP- / 6.3 WAR.
• NL CYA: Wilbur Cooper (Pittsburgh) 18-17 / 2.49 / 93 K / 285 IP / 89 FIP- / 5.3 WAR.
• AL Reliever of the Year: Duster Mails (Cleveland) 6-4 / 3.97 / 9 SV / 32 K / 56.2 IP / 76 FIP- / 1.1 WAR.
• NL Reliever of the Year: Huck Betts (Philadelphia) 4-2 / 2.70 / 6 SV / 19 K / 63.1 IP / 82 FIP- / 0.8 WAR.
• AL Rookie of the Year: Riggs Stephenson (Cleveland) 366/443/518 / 8 HR / 106 RBI / 436 wOBA / 145 OPS+ / 3.88 WPA / 7.6 WAR.
• NL Rookie of the Year: Ray Grimes (Chicago) 349/426/524 / 12 HR / 82 RBI / 108 R / 427 wOBA / 143 OPS+ / 6.0 WAR.

LEADERS (COMBINED)

[luckymann]

The Yanks see off a determined challenge from the Browns to win the AL by a single game with a 94-60 record.

The Giants also repeat, winning the NL by 7 games from the Reds while going 93-61.

The Giants then sweep the Yanks 4-0 in the World Series, with one game declared a tie, to win their second straight World Championship.

Babe Ruth is suspended for the first month of the season for barnstorming and finishes the year with just 35 HR and 96 RBI, losing the home run title to Ken Williams of the Browns.

Rogers Hornsby hits 401, the first to break 400 in the NL since 1901. He also sets new senior circuit season records with 42 HR, 152 RBI and a 722 SLG.

[luckymann]

Another off-season with plenty of roster action for the Red Sox.

In what looks a fairly beneficial trade, they send Stuffy McInnis to Cleveland for 1B George Burns and outfielders Elmer Smith and Joe Harris.

Harder to fully comprehend the relative merits of is the movement of Bullet Joe Bush, Sad Sam Jones and Everett Scott to Harry’s old friends at the Yankees for pitchers Rip Collins, Jack Quinn, and Bill Piercy, as well as shortstop Roger Peckinpaugh and another wad of cash. Frazee then flips Peckinpaugh to the Senators for shortstops Joe Dugan and Frank O’Rourke.

They also claim pitcher Alex Ferguson off waivers from the Yanks.

Here are the Preseason Predictions in full as well as the home pages for BOS, NYY and the Babe at Opening Day, 1922. It seems those in the know believe Cleveland-St. Louis III is on the cards (sorry about that...), with the Sox and Yanks to finish mid-standings.

Let's see if they are "in the know".

[luckymann]

I fear I have fallen into my usual trap here and overburdened the thread with information.

So I have made the executive decision to revert to an annual update, with the way each season plays out the deciding factor in the length of the summary. This should keep things a bit more punchy and moving along at a faster clip.

I will be posting retrospectively at the end of each season, so there will be a hiatus between each of 2-4 weeks.

Thanks for your patience.

G

[luckymann]

RUTH
Hard to get a proper bead comparison-wise, given Babe missed the first month of the IRL after being suspended. That means 100+ more AB and 170 more PA than he got historically. So the quantitative stats are going to be misleading. Still, he outperformed on the average-based stats as well with the exception of ISO.

46 HR / 129 RBI is a fair effort in anyone’s book, but it is still a slight dip across the board from 1921. And in a season where, with Harris, Burns and company, he inarguably had more lineup protection around than at any other time to date, one might reasonably have expected the opposite.

Perhaps the most noticeable aspect of the Babe’s play this season is his streakiness. A vast percentage of his productivity happens in short, sharp bursts interspersed with periods in which he is very quiet indeed. We all know it is day-in day-out productivity that wins pennants and championships. A three-HR / 6 RBI performance in a 10-0 thrashing is still only one win. If you then contribute next to nothing in the three 3-1 losses that follow, your side isn’t going to get very far over the course of a full season.





RED SOX
Another off-season with plenty of roster action for the Red Sox.

In what looks a fairly beneficial trade, they send Stuffy McInnis to Cleveland for 1B George Burns and outfielders Elmer Smith and Joe Harris.

Harder to fully comprehend is the movement of Bullet Joe Bush, Sad Sam Jones and Everett Scott to Harry’s old friends at the Yankees for pitchers Rip Collins, Jack Quinn, and Bill Piercy, as well as shortstop Roger Peckinpaugh and another wad of cash. Frazee then flips Peckinpaugh to the Senators for shortstops Joe Dugan and Frank O’Rourke.

They also claim pitcher Alex Ferguson off waivers from the Yanks.

Near the end of July, Frazee engineers another cash-raising player dump to the Yanks, flipping Joe Dugan and Elmer Smith for Chick Fewster, Elmer Miller, a player to be named, and $50k.

And in August, Eddie Foster is claimed off waivers by St. Louis.

As it turns out, these are some pretty handy players the Sox have picked up.

Joe Harris has a fantastic year, slashing 349/395/554 with 17 HR and 114 RBI while his 142 OPS+, 417 wOBA, 153 wRC+ and 5.1 WAR trail only the Babe. George Burns is also excellent, with a 338/386/459 slash, 103 RBI and 3.5 WAR. Joe Dugan only lasts half a season, but he, too, is handy while with the team.

At age 34, Del Pratt shows there is plenty of life left in him with 10 HR, 77 RBI and 4.1 WAR. Leibold and Ruel play their part as well, and Eddie Foster has a solid campaign before the Browns nab him. With him gone, Frank O’Rourke makes the most of his increased game time, hitting 313 with 37 RBI and 2.0 WAR. Elmer Smith is another strong performer before his late-season trade, although the almost absolute disappearance of his power – whereas in his final two seasons with Cleveland he hit 55 HR and drove in nearly 250 runs, it takes him 35 games to hit one for the Sox and he ends up with just 4 in his 124 AB for the club prior to being traded – limits his overall contribution.

The pitching is a bit of a surprise packet, with the rotation’s 4.20 ERA the AL’s second-best. Pennock ends up winning 19 and Alex Ferguson’s 14-8 / 3.86 well exceeds expectations. Rip Collins and Jack Quinn are the weak links in this scenario, and one would think that, had they another two slightly more consistent and talented starters, the Sox would have finished much closer.

Still, they do compete a fair way into the season, with an 18-11 August their best month of the campaign. That said, they only flirt with contention and a horror finish to the year in which they drop 9 of 12 in September leaves them well adrift in 6th place with a 76-78 record, 12 GB the pennant-winning Browns.






YANKEES
The Yanks’ season very closely mirrors that of the Sox. They loiter on the fringes for the majority of the year without ever really threatening, and finish a game ahead of Boston in 5th.

They don’t have any outright superstars, but guys like Bob Meusel (352 / 24 HR / 115 RBI / 5.6 WAR), Whitey Witt (348 / 4.1 WAR) and the great Wally Schang (316 / 73 RBI / 3.9 WAR) are certainly no slouches. Even Mike Menosky (268 / 65 RBI / 1.7 WAR) continues to do well. And Hoyt – who is great again this season going 21-16 / 2.98 – still has a bunch of upside left in him from here. So you can see why the IRL version of this club with Ruth in it started their great run – even more so in a couple years when Gehrig arrives – but even without Babe I reckon they will be among the contenders before too long.





AL
The Browns are prominent from the outset but this remains a very tight race all the way through, with the Indians, Tigers and White Sox all flip-flopping at the top with St. Louis (despite them losing outfielder Chick Shorten early on to a torn elbow tendon), and as I mentioned the Sox and Yankees just off the pace. By August the Browns and Indians have settled down to sort it out among themselves, with the Browns looking like they’ll run away with it before getting the big-time wobbles and letting the Tribe back into it. Entering the final series for the regular season, in which the Indians head to St. Louis, the Browns are up by 2 games with a # of 2 and need just one win from the three games. They take no chances, clinching with a 12-5 cakewalk in the opener.

BATTERS OF THE MONTH: Joe Harris (Boston); Bob Meusel (New York); Bibb Falk (Chicago); Babe Ruth (Boston); Babe Ruth (Boston); Babe Ruth (Boston).

PITCHERS OF THE MONTH: Waite Hoyt (New York); Red Faber (Chicago); Tom Zachary (Washington); George Uhle (Cleveland); Herb Pennock (Boston); Herb Pennock (Boston).

ROOKIES OF THE MONTH: Syl Johnson (Detroit); Joe Hauser (Philadelphia); Joe Hauser (Philadelphia); Joe Hauser (Philadelphia); Goose Goslin (Washington); Goose Goslin (Washington).

• Cleveland’s Tris Speaker gets his 2500th career hit.
• Chicago’s Eddie Collins reaches the 2500-hit plateau for his career. Teammate Harry Hooper gets his 2000th a couple days later.
• Washington’s Joe Judge goes an amazing 7-for-7 – all singles – but still ends up on the losing side.

NL
In the NL, it is the Braves who fly out of the gates, but they can’t maintain the rage and are eventually caught and overhauled by the Reds, who take the lead in late May. From there it is Cincy, the Cubs and Robins duking it out, with the Giants later joining the fray thanks to a 20-8 July, until the Reds finally shake the others off and eventually cruise to an early-September clinch.

BATTER OF THE MONTH: Cliff Lee (Philadelphia); Rogers Hornsby (St. Louis); Edd Roush (Cincinnati); Jack Fournier (St. Louis); Rogers Hornsby (St. Louis); Rogers Hornsby (St. Louis).

PITCHER OF THE MONTH: Joe Oeschger (Boston); Eppa Rixey (Cincinnati); Burleigh Grimes (Brooklyn); Bill Doak (St. Louis); Frank Miller (Boston); Frank Miller (Boston); Frank Miller (Boston).

ROOKIE OF THE MONTH: Ike Caveney (Cincinnati); Tony Kaufmann (Chicago); Tony Kaufmann (Chicago); Andy High (Brooklyn); Ike Caveney (Cincinnati); Ike Caveney (Cincinnati).

• Brooklyn’s Zack Wheat and Jake Daubert of Cincinnati both collect their 2500th career hit.

WORLD SERIES

• GAME 1: Cincinnati 11, St. Louis 3
• GAME 2: Cincinnati 5, St. Louis 4
• GAME 3: St. Louis 8, Cincinnati 7
• GAME 4: St. Louis 2, Cincinnati 0
• GAME 5: Cincinnati 3, St. Louis 2
• GAME 6: Cincinnati 12, St. Louis 1

CINCINNATI WINS SERIES 4 TO 2

SERIES MVP: Pat Duncan (Cincinnati)

1922 Major Awards

• AL MVP: Babe Ruth (Boston) 357/483/685 / 46 HR / 129 RBI / 502 wOBA / 197 OPS+ / 10.5 WAR.
• NL MVP: Rogers Hornsby (St. Louis) 342/405/639 / 28 HR / 125 RBI / 448 wOBA / 166 OPS+ / 8.9 WAR.
• AL CYA: Waite Hoyt (New York) 21-16 / 2.98 / 126 K / 323.2 IP / 89 FIP- / 5.8 WAR.
• NL CYA: Eppa Rixey (Cincinnati) 21-6 / 3.15 / 76 K / 288.1 IP / 83 FIP- / 6.4 WAR.
• AL Reliever of the Year: Rusty Wright (St. Louis) 7-2 / 2.87 / 9 SV / 29 K / 59.2 IP / 87 FIP- / 0.8 WAR.
• NL Reliever of the Year: Cliff Markle (Cincinnati) 5-3 / 2.45 / 10 SV / 27 K / 55 IP / 66 FIP- / 1.5 WAR.
• AL Rookie of the Year: Joe Hauser (Philadelphia) 351/403/551 / 21 HR / 104 RBI / 418 wOBA / 141 OPS+ / 4.29 WPA / 5.2 WAR.
• NL Rookie of the Year: Ike Caveney (Cincinnati) 316/363/457 / 9 HR / 81 RBI / 352 wOBA / 112 OPS+ / 3.2 WAR.

[luckymann]

Sorry to those that have been following this but by the time I've reached 1923 and seen exactly what Harry Frazee has done to this club I've lost interest in whether the Curse is real or not. I'm not even a Sox fan (or a Yankees fan for that matter), I just thought this would be a fun exercise. Sadly, the fun is lacking. What's more it is impossible to figure out how I'd ever compare it with the sort of accuracy necessary for and worthy of this sort of exercise.

So for now it has been put on ice.

I may come back to it later, but for now, the curtain has come down and the theatre has closed.

G