Wonky live updates as usual

Bunktown Ballers · 07-26-2021, 08:26 AM

A live pitcher gets a 24 point jump from 69 to 93 which is long overdue. Top 5 in ERA, 13 k/9, 2.3 walk/9, 35 fewer hits than Innings pitched , only 9 HR allowed, Hits 100 on gun several times a game, All-Star.But big deal is with the 24 point jump he actually lost in the Stuff/Movement/Control numbers. Yes he's actually worst than his previous card. Card has his top speed pitch at 94, but he averages 96+ IRL on his fastball and often hits 100 in 7th & 8th Innings. His New Stuff is 99, Movement 58 Control 55. BTW has a no-hitter this year and hasn't looked back. Carlos Rodon is the guy for this card. How in the world does a card get bumped 24 but loses in the important numbers. OOTP needs to find a better way of rating players across the board. I won't get started with Lance Lynn either Go to baseball reference & look at Carlos Rodons pitching line & honestly tell me he deserves the 99/58/55. That card unplayable in silver....Of course I'm going to get the usual...it's the prediction or its from 2 months ago, or some cocky maimed insult. It's not just Rodon....& Lynn...look around the league at some of these junk cards....I'm mean Lynn has a real life under 2 ERA (with results that support that ERA) but his card is junk in silver.

BB

Everyone should add their 2 cents in too & maybe it'll get right. The numbers just don't jive

Abnerdoubleday · 07-26-2021, 08:47 AM

Now I know what card to expect in a Diamond pack

getalife1798 · 07-26-2021, 09:01 AM

The Tatis card really bothers me.

I watched this on MLB Now and it really highlights the year the man is having (with a shoulder issue) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAjzisZzS64

With those stats and comparing him to other great seasons - this live card needs to be beefed up on the offensive end. Avoid K I think is right, but the everything else needs a boost in the worst way. Also - speed at a 56 makes no sense to me. He is clearly one of the fastest players in the game.

For his defense - lets compare him to Simmons as far as "Error" goes.

Tatis - 666.2 innings - 95 put outs, 175 assists, 19 errors, 36 DP, FLD% is .934
Simmons - 683.1 innings - 112 put outs, 204 assists, 8 errors, 45 DP, FLD% is .975

There are other fielding metrics you can find that show Simmons is a better defender. (I used https://www.baseball-reference.com/)

Now - with the ratings out - lets compare the two in game.

Tatis - 86 SS - 89 Range - 84 Error - 90 ARM - 77 DP
Simmons - 88 SS - 88 Range - 74 Error - 113 Arm - 89 DP

How is Tatis's error rating higher than Simmons? How is Tatis anywhere near Simmons in general as far as defense goes to begin with?

Tatis should be beefed with his offensive and speed ratings, but his defense needs to be nerfed to league average level.

Tatis and Degrom SHOULD be two cards that players could pick in Perfect Drafts for the 100 round IMO. Their ratings should reflect what type of season they are having - an all-time great season. Instead, it feels like they are being held back because they are "live" card.

Rant Over. Have a great day!

neugey · 07-26-2021, 09:11 AM

Yikes, that situation with Rodon doesn't sound good at all.

Play4Thrills · 07-26-2021, 09:24 AM

And the best player in baseball -- the face of MLB -- is not even a high diamond...

frankbama · 07-26-2021, 09:35 AM

Definitely seemed even weirder than normal. Supposedly more weight to season-long stats as we go, a better month than previous in the right categories and either doesn't move or goes down. A lot seemed to go down this time as well. Just really odd.

When were these decided as well? Nelson Cruz is still on the Twins. Maybe these ratings were decided last week or whatever not sure. Maybe they'll get updated along with all the other trades this week.

ncap99 · 07-26-2021, 09:45 AM

Are the updates posted anywhere yet that I missed?

Matt Arnold · 07-26-2021, 09:58 AM

Fielding numbers and velocities don't get updated in the live updates. So if we were updating Tatis based on his actual fielding this year, he would probably be like a 50 for error rating right now, but since his preseason prediction presumably assumed that he would keep improving on his great fielding from last year, he gets rated higher. Same with stuff like running, he's obviously been running a lot more and having more success this year, but that's not accounted for in the updates.

For Rodon, his card went up from last month, no? I have him listed as 95/55/51 last month, and 99/58/55 this month? Guys like him will always take some time to catch up in their ratings, since he's finally having the breakout season people have wanted of him for years, so his preseason ratings were down. Similar with Vlad and Ohtani, who started lower. Would I love to see them both as 100s? Yeah, because they're awesome and fun to watch. But the system is also set up to not overract too much. As much as I want that, if you have that, then you probably also have Yelich dropping down to like a low silver card by now given his disappointing season. Whether that's better to handle, I'm not sure. We do discuss that every year whether we want things to move faster or not.

Matt Arnold · 07-26-2021, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ncap99

Are the updates posted anywhere yet that I missed?

Looks like Kris just posted them here: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...15#post4810415

Play4Thrills · 07-26-2021, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Fielding numbers and velocities don't get updated in the live updates.

Thanks for explaining this. I could not figure out why guys like Jean Segura and Marcus Semien are being left behind so far in the ratings.

getalife1798 · 07-26-2021, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Fielding numbers and velocities don't get updated in the live updates. So if we were updating Tatis based on his actual fielding this year, he would probably be like a 50 for error rating right now, but since his preseason prediction presumably assumed that he would keep improving on his great fielding from last year, he gets rated higher. Same with stuff like running, he's obviously been running a lot more and having more success this year, but that's not accounted for in the updates.

Thank you for replying.

Hopefully in the future, defensive metrics can be adjusted (even if it's just the error rating)

Lukas Berger · 07-26-2021, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by getalife1798

Hopefully in the future, defensive metrics can be adjusted (even if it's just the error rating)

The problem is we don't get this from our data feeds so we'd either have to get a new data feed or update this by hand for each update (which is not likely to happen any time soon

)

bailey · 07-26-2021, 12:01 PM

I'm happy with the live updates. Don't change a thing!
100K profit, cha-ching.

adampiattday · 07-26-2021, 02:13 PM

How is Vlad Jr not a perfect!??!! So dumb

chazzycat · 07-26-2021, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adampiattday

How is Vlad Jr not a perfect!??!! So dumb

His hitting performance took a significant dip if you look beyond home runs, and he doesn't have much defensive value to prop up his OVR rating.

adampiattday · 07-26-2021, 03:53 PM

He’s been the best hitter in baseball all season. His “significant dip” is still better than most players. There’s plenty of historical perfects with no defense.

Drivehud.com · 07-26-2021, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adampiattday

He’s been the best hitter in baseball all season. His “significant dip” is still better than most players. There’s plenty of historical perfects with no defense.

Vlad and Shohei not being perfects by this point is kind of...

chazzycat · 07-26-2021, 04:33 PM

I think Matt's comment above is very important to understand. Like a good projection system, the system is cautious not to move the ratings too fast. These guys are not "proven" yet and that uncertainty is baked into the algorithms. Baseball requires a large sample size to see through the noise, due to the randomness, so that's where the hesitancy (rightly, imo) comes from. It's the same reason Bellinger is still a perfect having a bad year...he's got a very high baseline track record to fall back on compared to a very small sample this year.

With each month that goes by, with a guy like Vlad hitting very well, the system is going to believe it more & more. Hence his rapid climb up the ladder this season from silver to diamond. But, he just didn't keep up his pace this time around. His slash line for the June 28-July 25 period was 100 points lower than his previous production across all three stats. To me that seems like a very understandable reason to pump the brakes. His production this period was fitting for a low diamond card with no glove.

Drivehud.com · 07-26-2021, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I think Matt's comment above is very important to understand. Like a good projection system, the system is cautious not to move the ratings too fast. These guys are not "proven" yet and that uncertainty is baked into the algorithms. Baseball requires a large sample size to see through the noise, due to the randomness, so that's where the hesitancy (rightly, imo) comes from. It's the same reason Bellinger is still a perfect having a bad year...he's got a very high baseline track record to fall back on compared to a very small sample this year.

With each month that goes by, with a guy like Vlad hitting very well, the system is going to believe it more & more. Hence his rapid climb up the ladder this season from silver to diamond. But, he just didn't keep up his pace this time around. His slash line for the June 28-July 25 period was 100 points lower than his previous production across all three stats. To me that seems like a very understandable reason to pump the brakes. His production this period was fitting for a low diamond card with no glove.

I'm going to assume everyone playing this game understands sample size and variance in baseball.

I think what people are stating is, the algorithm needs adjusting. Are these historical cards, or 2021 live cards? You want to have some baseline based on a players past history, but players can have phenomenal one and done seasons, and at the rate the current algorithm understands this and adjusts, the season will be over before that's reflected in the ratings imho.

These live cards should have more fluctuation. There's no reason that Vlad and Ohtani for example shouldn't be 100 players right now. If they start to slip, then they can fall back to diamond. The developers can look at this more and listen to the feedback, or they can ignore it. It's up to them.

chazzycat · 07-26-2021, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drivehud.com

These live cards should have more fluctuation. There's no reason that Vlad and Ohtani for example shouldn't be 100 players right now. If they start to slip, then they can fall back to diamond. The developers can look at this more and listen to the feedback, or they can ignore it. It's up to them.

Sure, why not just keep giving players +8 points every month regardless of performance. Do you truly think hitting .260 for a month is worthy of an 8 point bump for that month?? I'm having a hard time with that one. Ohtani I'm not going to argue because I honestly don't know how it works for players that are completely unprecedented in modern times.

07-26-2021, 08:26 AM	#1
Bunktown Ballers All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Louisiana Posts: 1,589 Infractions: 0/2 (3)	Wonky live updates as usual A live pitcher gets a 24 point jump from 69 to 93 which is long overdue. Top 5 in ERA, 13 k/9, 2.3 walk/9, 35 fewer hits than Innings pitched , only 9 HR allowed, Hits 100 on gun several times a game, All-Star.But big deal is with the 24 point jump he actually lost in the Stuff/Movement/Control numbers. Yes he's actually worst than his previous card. Card has his top speed pitch at 94, but he averages 96+ IRL on his fastball and often hits 100 in 7th & 8th Innings. His New Stuff is 99, Movement 58 Control 55. BTW has a no-hitter this year and hasn't looked back. Carlos Rodon is the guy for this card. How in the world does a card get bumped 24 but loses in the important numbers. OOTP needs to find a better way of rating players across the board. I won't get started with Lance Lynn either Go to baseball reference & look at Carlos Rodons pitching line & honestly tell me he deserves the 99/58/55. That card unplayable in silver....Of course I'm going to get the usual...it's the prediction or its from 2 months ago, or some cocky maimed insult. It's not just Rodon....& Lynn...look around the league at some of these junk cards....I'm mean Lynn has a real life under 2 ERA (with results that support that ERA) but his card is junk in silver. BB Everyone should add their 2 cents in too & maybe it'll get right. The numbers just don't jive Last edited by Bunktown Ballers; 07-26-2021 at 08:28 AM.

07-26-2021, 09:01 AM	#3
getalife1798 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: NJ Posts: 71	The Tatis card really bothers me. I watched this on MLB Now and it really highlights the year the man is having (with a shoulder issue) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAjzisZzS64 With those stats and comparing him to other great seasons - this live card needs to be beefed up on the offensive end. Avoid K I think is right, but the everything else needs a boost in the worst way. Also - speed at a 56 makes no sense to me. He is clearly one of the fastest players in the game. For his defense - lets compare him to Simmons as far as "Error" goes. Tatis - 666.2 innings - 95 put outs, 175 assists, 19 errors, 36 DP, FLD% is .934 Simmons - 683.1 innings - 112 put outs, 204 assists, 8 errors, 45 DP, FLD% is .975 There are other fielding metrics you can find that show Simmons is a better defender. (I used https://www.baseball-reference.com/) Now - with the ratings out - lets compare the two in game. Tatis - 86 SS - 89 Range - 84 Error - 90 ARM - 77 DP Simmons - 88 SS - 88 Range - 74 Error - 113 Arm - 89 DP How is Tatis's error rating higher than Simmons? How is Tatis anywhere near Simmons in general as far as defense goes to begin with? Tatis should be beefed with his offensive and speed ratings, but his defense needs to be nerfed to league average level. Tatis and Degrom SHOULD be two cards that players could pick in Perfect Drafts for the 100 round IMO. Their ratings should reflect what type of season they are having - an all-time great season. Instead, it feels like they are being held back because they are "live" card. Rant Over. Have a great day! __________________ OOTP22 OOTP21 OOTP20

07-26-2021, 09:11 AM	#4
neugey All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 805 Blog Entries: 39	Yikes, that situation with Rodon doesn't sound good at all. __________________ Online OOTP League Play: PBA - Cincinnati Reds MLM - Baltimore Orioles

07-26-2021, 02:13 PM	#14
adampiattday Bat Boy Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 17	Vlad How is Vlad Jr not a perfect!??!! So dumb __________________

07-26-2021, 03:53 PM	#16
adampiattday Bat Boy Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 17	He’s been the best hitter in baseball all season. His “significant dip” is still better than most players. There’s plenty of historical perfects with no defense. __________________

07-26-2021, 08:47 AM	#2
Abnerdoubleday Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 203	Now I know what card to expect in a Diamond pack

07-26-2021, 09:24 AM	#5
Play4Thrills Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2021 Posts: 57	And the best player in baseball -- the face of MLB -- is not even a high diamond...

07-26-2021, 09:35 AM	#6
frankbama Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 204	Definitely seemed even weirder than normal. Supposedly more weight to season-long stats as we go, a better month than previous in the right categories and either doesn't move or goes down. A lot seemed to go down this time as well. Just really odd. When were these decided as well? Nelson Cruz is still on the Twins. Maybe these ratings were decided last week or whatever not sure. Maybe they'll get updated along with all the other trades this week.

07-26-2021, 09:45 AM	#7
ncap99 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 318	Are the updates posted anywhere yet that I missed?

07-26-2021, 09:58 AM	#8
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 15,484	Fielding numbers and velocities don't get updated in the live updates. So if we were updating Tatis based on his actual fielding this year, he would probably be like a 50 for error rating right now, but since his preseason prediction presumably assumed that he would keep improving on his great fielding from last year, he gets rated higher. Same with stuff like running, he's obviously been running a lot more and having more success this year, but that's not accounted for in the updates. For Rodon, his card went up from last month, no? I have him listed as 95/55/51 last month, and 99/58/55 this month? Guys like him will always take some time to catch up in their ratings, since he's finally having the breakout season people have wanted of him for years, so his preseason ratings were down. Similar with Vlad and Ohtani, who started lower. Would I love to see them both as 100s? Yeah, because they're awesome and fun to watch. But the system is also set up to not overract too much. As much as I want that, if you have that, then you probably also have Yelich dropping down to like a low silver card by now given his disappointing season. Whether that's better to handle, I'm not sure. We do discuss that every year whether we want things to move faster or not.

07-26-2021, 12:01 PM	#13
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,315	I'm happy with the live updates. Don't change a thing! 100K profit, cha-ching.

07-26-2021, 04:33 PM	#18
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	I think Matt's comment above is very important to understand. Like a good projection system, the system is cautious not to move the ratings too fast. These guys are not "proven" yet and that uncertainty is baked into the algorithms. Baseball requires a large sample size to see through the noise, due to the randomness, so that's where the hesitancy (rightly, imo) comes from. It's the same reason Bellinger is still a perfect having a bad year...he's got a very high baseline track record to fall back on compared to a very small sample this year. With each month that goes by, with a guy like Vlad hitting very well, the system is going to believe it more & more. Hence his rapid climb up the ladder this season from silver to diamond. But, he just didn't keep up his pace this time around. His slash line for the June 28-July 25 period was 100 points lower than his previous production across all three stats. To me that seems like a very understandable reason to pump the brakes. His production this period was fitting for a low diamond card with no glove.