One Run Losses

Smoothie7745 · 06-05-2021, 05:30 AM

Another (sort of?) gripe post, but not a bad one, I don't think.

Anyone else notice an inordinate number of one run losses, at least in Perfect Draft?

Don't get me wrong, I am in no way a baseball guru or anything, but I do understand Pyt. Rec. and cluster luck and regression and the like. I also know that playing OOTP since 2004 doesn't make me an expert or even particularly good at it (though I am pretty decent at the game) and it's possible that I'm missing something in my fairly exhaustive and carefully considered, detailed slider settings. I've also waited until I've played in 40 or 50 PD tournaments to try and build up a sample size and overcome the failure bias where I might only remember the bad times, and after all of that, I'm convinced there is a disproportionate number of one run losses that I suffer in Perfect Draft tourneys.

Anyone else?

dkgo · 06-05-2021, 09:39 AM

No, the game is rigged to give me an inordinate number of one run wins to balance it out. Lucky

Abnerdoubleday · 06-05-2021, 10:07 AM

most of my inordinate number of losses are by more than one run

professor ape · 06-05-2021, 10:34 AM

It’s a zero sum game in terms of one run wins and losses so I expect that you are just on the unlucky end of the spectrum.

HRBaker · 06-05-2021, 11:13 AM

It's hard to fathom sometimes when the "laws of average" don't seem to be present - but the reality is, once you accept the fact that the game is totally random (zero sum) and there are no routines to try and "even things out", then you learn to accept you've just been unlucky (or lucky as it may be)

This year, in my case, I've pulled only 1-100 and 3-Diamonds from maybe 1,000 packs across 3 teams - BUT - I also remember in PT19 when I pulled 3 100s from a 10 pack run.

I would make a comparison with Vegas, but the odds ARE definitely set against you there - not so with OOTP.

ineedplayerpics · 06-06-2021, 09:18 AM

They should make sure to pair you against bad teams too! The top teams should be sequestered lol

Leo_The_Lip · 06-06-2021, 11:52 AM

My teams usually pound the beejesus out of other teams, so when we lose, it is usually a close, one-run loss. So I've come to expect my squads will have poor records in one-run games, or go undefeated. Which never hapens.

professor ape · 06-06-2021, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leo_The_Lip

My teams usually pound the beejesus out of other teams, so when we lose, it is usually a close, one-run loss. So I've come to expect my squads will have poor records in one-run games, or go undefeated. Which never hapens.

History shows that teams are very close to .500 in one run games regardless of their overall record. If you want to know how good a team is, look at their record in games decided by more than one run.

yno88 · 06-06-2021, 11:25 PM

Draft a diamond closer.

dbqs · 06-07-2021, 09:30 AM

Also that's what's gonna happen when a lot of teams have the same players and it comes down to a tossup.

06-05-2021, 05:30 AM	#1
Smoothie7745 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 142	One Run Losses Another (sort of?) gripe post, but not a bad one, I don't think. Anyone else notice an inordinate number of one run losses, at least in Perfect Draft? Don't get me wrong, I am in no way a baseball guru or anything, but I do understand Pyt. Rec. and cluster luck and regression and the like. I also know that playing OOTP since 2004 doesn't make me an expert or even particularly good at it (though I am pretty decent at the game) and it's possible that I'm missing something in my fairly exhaustive and carefully considered, detailed slider settings. I've also waited until I've played in 40 or 50 PD tournaments to try and build up a sample size and overcome the failure bias where I might only remember the bad times, and after all of that, I'm convinced there is a disproportionate number of one run losses that I suffer in Perfect Draft tourneys. Anyone else? __________________ MLSB Astros (original and current Houston Astros GM) FBBL Retro (original and current Astros GM) RIP, ISBL (Houston Astros) RIP, VSL (Houston Astros) RIP, FBBL (original Oakland A's GM) Please visit my website: JasonMarbach.com And the myspace: http://www.myspace.com/jasonmarbach R.I.P. D. K. #57

06-05-2021, 10:34 AM	#4
professor ape All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: The belly of the beast Posts: 1,498	It’s a zero sum game in terms of one run wins and losses so I expect that you are just on the unlucky end of the spectrum. __________________

06-05-2021, 11:13 AM	#5
HRBaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,380	It's hard to fathom sometimes when the "laws of average" don't seem to be present - but the reality is, once you accept the fact that the game is totally random (zero sum) and there are no routines to try and "even things out", then you learn to accept you've just been unlucky (or lucky as it may be) This year, in my case, I've pulled only 1-100 and 3-Diamonds from maybe 1,000 packs across 3 teams - BUT - I also remember in PT19 when I pulled 3 100s from a 10 pack run. I would make a comparison with Vegas, but the odds ARE definitely set against you there - not so with OOTP. __________________ *HRB*

06-06-2021, 11:52 AM	#7
Leo_The_Lip All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,813	My teams usually pound the beejesus out of other teams, so when we lose, it is usually a close, one-run loss. So I've come to expect my squads will have poor records in one-run games, or go undefeated. Which never hapens. __________________ "My name will live forever" - Anonymous

06-06-2021, 11:25 PM	#9
yno88 Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 104	Draft a diamond closer. __________________

06-05-2021, 09:39 AM	#2
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	No, the game is rigged to give me an inordinate number of one run wins to balance it out. Lucky

06-05-2021, 10:07 AM	#3
Abnerdoubleday Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 203	most of my inordinate number of losses are by more than one run

06-06-2021, 09:18 AM	#6
ineedplayerpics Banned Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 162 Infractions: 1/2 (5)	They should make sure to pair you against bad teams too! The top teams should be sequestered lol

06-07-2021, 09:30 AM	#10
dbqs Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2017 Location: Comiskey Posts: 316	Also that's what's gonna happen when a lot of teams have the same players and it comes down to a tossup. __________________