Development fixed?

[eas9898]

Originally Posted by LeftHandPath

Are any devs still alive?

I'm starting to think not. We can't even get them to comment on what all the new coaching ratings do.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by LeftHandPath

Are any devs still alive? A short statement if this issue will be handled in the current patch is highly appreciated.

As you can see, I already commented on this on the first page of the thread

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

For sure though, we'll check things over even more since it does seem things still need some tweaking.

[jaguar8311]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

As you can see, I already commented on this on the first page of the thread

I think what people want to know is when the next patch will be released. It's going to be a long weekend in Canada (Victoria Day) and I think in the US as well. At least here in Ottawa they call for rain much of that long weekend too

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by jaguar8311

I think what people want to know is when the next patch will be released. It's going to be a long weekend in Canada (Victoria Day) and I think in the US as well. At least here in Ottawa they're call for rain much of that long weekend too

We're shooting for a public beta early next week if all goes well. It's a long weekend here in Europe as well

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by jaguar8311

I think what people want to know is when the next patch will be released. It's going to be a long weekend in Canada (Victoria Day) and I think in the US as well. At least here in Ottawa they call for rain much of that long weekend too

It's snowing here in Calgary today, so I don't think you should be complaining about your weather

[Dave Stieb II]

Not to pile on but this issue goes beyond development and includes aggressive player promotion to the bigs, starting as early as April of the 2021 season. It's definitely not an 'in the future' problem.
I haven't gone through every roster but, in my current save, every team I have faced has at least one player who hasn't played above A ball and often more. And they are playing regularly or in the starting rotation or working prominent BP innings.
Just finished a series with the Cubs who have a young C Amaya, with a few at bats at A+ under his belt, splitting time with Contreras. He was 0 for 30 coming into our series and scratched out an IF hit against us.
But many of the young players are thriving, performing like established MLB stars, not raw rookies.
Look, our club (Cleveland) started 28-10 so this is not about losing a couple games. In fact, as we embarked on a road trip starting in Seattle, I only asked myself HOW things were going to start to balance out against the sub-.500 Mariners, not whether or not they would.
We've lost the first two games 5-1 and 10-1 predictably. But it was Jared Kelenic (going to be in line for an all star berth) and Julio Rodriguez who played key roles in their line up.
Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert shut us out for 6 innings of 4-hit ball, followed by 2020 draft pick Emerson Hancock (having never thrown a pitch in the minors) who should have no-hit us over his 5.1 innings except that I got pissed and managed a bunt single on an 0-2 count. And didn't feel badly about it!
Really, though, Kelenic and Gilbert in the majors? OK. No problem.
But both thriving. MMMM.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez has 65 AB at high A to his credit and Hancock has never pitched in the minors.
And their flourishing during their first appearances in the show, too?
Yah, I think both development and promotion still need to be dialed down.

[itsmb8]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

Not to pile on but this issue goes beyond development and includes aggressive player promotion to the bigs, starting as early as April of the 2021 season. It's definitely not an 'in the future' problem.
I haven't gone through every roster but, in my current save, every team I have faced has at least one player who hasn't played above A ball and often more. And they are playing regularly or in the starting rotation or working prominent BP innings.
Just finished a series with the Cubs who have a young C Amaya, with a few at bats at A+ under his belt, splitting time with Contreras. He was 0 for 30 coming into our series and scratched out an IF hit against us.
But many of the young players are thriving, performing like established MLB stars, not raw rookies.
Look, our club (Cleveland) started 28-10 so this is not about losing a couple games. In fact, as we embarked on a road trip starting in Seattle, I only asked myself HOW things were going to start to balance out against the sub-.500 Mariners, not whether or not they would.
We've lost the first two games 5-1 and 10-1 predictably. But it was Jared Kelenic (going to be in line for an all star berth) and Julio Rodriguez who played key roles in their line up.
Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert shut us out for 6 innings of 4-hit ball, followed by 2020 draft pick Emerson Hancock (having never thrown a pitch in the minors) who should have no-hit us over his 5.1 innings except that I got pissed and managed a bunt single on an 0-2 count. And didn't feel badly about it!
Really, though, Kelenic and Gilbert in the majors? OK. No problem.
But both thriving. MMMM.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez has 65 AB at high A to his credit and Hancock has never pitched in the minors.
And their flourishing during their first appearances in the show, too?
Yah, I think both development and promotion still need to be dialed down.

Freddy Peralta's debut was in 2018 against the Rockies in Denver, and he struck out 13.

Its baseball, unrealistic events are what make it realistic.

[Dave Stieb II]

Originally Posted by itsmb8

Freddy Peralta's debut was in 2018 against the Rockies in Denver, and he struck out 13.

Its baseball, unrealistic events are what make it realistic.

Yes. and "unrealistic events" are called outliers for that reason.
They shouldn't become the norm.
Too MANY players are being promoted too quickly and too MANY of those are having too much success on their first trip to the bigs.
That means they are no longer "unrealistic events" but the norm.

[Dave Stieb II]

It was probably a mistake to try to make my point anecdotally.
So I'll just post the following facts and then leave it alone.
In my current save, it is May 16, 2021.
At least 10 players from the 2020 draft are in the majors, having never seen the minors. Most are doing extremely well.
Along with those players, there are literally dozens of guys in the big leagues who have never played above A ball and some never above rookie ball. Some are struggling, but few. Most are holding their own and some are excelling.
Case in point is Thanaj Thomas (Pittsburgh). Good prospect? Yes.
But to be in the majors at this point and producing the numbers captured in the screenshot?
Too many. Too soon. Doing too well.
I know the devs meant well. In past versions it seemed like it took forever for some guys to reach the bigs. But in an effort to reflect the current more aggressive promotion of young players, it has gone WAY past the point of realism.

[Daniel_09]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

It was probably a mistake to try to make my point anecdotally.
So I'll just post the following facts and then leave it alone.
In my current save, it is May 16, 2021.
At least 10 players from the 2020 draft are in the majors, having never seen the minors. Most are doing extremely well.
Along with those players, there are literally dozens of guys in the big leagues who have never played above A ball and some never above rookie ball. Some are struggling, but few. Most are holding their own and some are excelling.
Case in point is Thanaj Thomas (Pittsburgh). Good prospect? Yes.
But to be in the majors at this point and producing the numbers captured in the screenshot?
Too many. Too soon. Doing too well.
I know the devs meant well. In past versions it seemed like it took forever for some guys to reach the bigs. But in an effort to reflect the current more aggressive promotion of young players, it has gone WAY past the point of realism.

Attachment 783407

In real life he is playing in High A, Starting games, very good numbers so far.

[Dave Stieb II]

Exactly my point.

[BradG223]

Sharing some of my experience:
70 games into my 2159 season, 24 players from the 2158 draft are playing in the majors. The entirety of this league was simulated with V4.
Draft classes in this league are large (24 rounds * 56 teams), which is worth keeping in mind.

Anyone test out the public beta and get a good feel for development?

[jaguar8311]

Regarding the beta patch,

I'm a bit concerned that it says "Adjusted development of draft eligible players". Was anything done to tweak the development of players after they've been drafted?

[klkitchens]

Originally Posted by Mat

It still needs further adjustment, I think. I will try and post data when I get the chance. Hopefully others agree.

Remember the good old days of High Heat Baseball where stuff like this was controlled by an INI file. The code just used the settings and percentages in that file and then the community tweaked and tweaked until it was near perfect and then you could download that file and install it and poof... fixed.

[Dave Stieb II]

Originally Posted by jaguar8311

Regarding the beta patch,

I'm a bit concerned that it says "Adjusted development of draft eligible players". Was anything done to tweak the development of players after they've been drafted?

I had exactly the same thought when I read that.

[Dave Stieb II]

Originally Posted by BradG223

Sharing some of my experience:
70 games into my 2159 season, 24 players from the 2158 draft are playing in the majors. The entirety of this league was simulated with V4.
Draft classes in this league are large (24 rounds * 56 teams), which is worth keeping in mind.

Anyone test out the public beta and get a good feel for development?

Not to diminish what is happening to you in 2159 but when I first read this thread I thought "OK. So these things are happening in the far off distant future. I'll never get there (LOL) # 1 and, if I do, maybe by then player development will be such that high schoolers will to stepping into the big leagues."
In other words, I'd just explain it away to myself in the future years.
But now that I clearly see, in mid-May 2021, about 15 (now) 2020 draft picks excelling the majors, along with dozens of guys who never played above A ball and missed the 2020 season entirely, many of them excelling as well, it is WAY over the top.
Guys who hadn't played above rookie ball heading into 2021 are killing it while MANY real-life established major leaguers are struggling mightily.
This has to change. We are dealing with real-life players in real time and it is so far out of whack it's sad, frankly.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by jaguar8311

Regarding the beta patch,

I'm a bit concerned that it says "Adjusted development of draft eligible players". Was anything done to tweak the development of players after they've been drafted?

Originally Posted by klkitchens

Remember the good old days of High Heat Baseball where stuff like this was controlled by an INI file. The code just used the settings and percentages in that file and then the community tweaked and tweaked until it was near perfect and then you could download that file and install it and poof... fixed.

This is already controlled by adjustable settings in the game. You can freely adjust those to whatever you want to get the development to be quicker or slower or whatever you think is best/more realistic for your game.

Just go to 'game settings' > 'players and facegen' and adjust the Batter Dev. Speed, Pitcher Dev. Speed and/or the Talent Change Randomness settings.

As far as the changes in the patch, the underlying source of the players getting to the majors too quickly was that some players were developing too quickly while still in the draft pool, and thus coming out of the draft too far up on the development curve, with too high current ratings. Then with even normal amounts of development once in the minors, they were hitting the majors too soon.

The adjustments we made should significantly improve that now. Obviously it still might not be perfect, and if there are still issues, we can look at tweaking things more.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

Along with those players, there are literally dozens of guys in the big leagues who have never played above A ball and some never above rookie ball. Some are struggling, but few. Most are holding their own and some are excelling.
Case in point is Thanaj Thomas (Pittsburgh). Good prospect? Yes.
But to be in the majors at this point and producing the numbers captured in the screenshot?


Attachment 783407

Originally Posted by Daniel_09

In real life he is playing in High A, Starting games, very good numbers so far.

When I run a new test sim using the beta patch, Thomas spends the entire year in A+, pitching very well there but doesn't sniff the majors or even AA.

[BradG223]

Simulated on the public beta: My first screenshot is from a default MLB game. The screenshot shows that 11 players drafted in the year 2022 had innings pitched, or plate appearances in 2023, the following year.

The next screenshot shows what I can find for the time spanning year drafted to the year debuted. Since the 2004 amateur draft, the most debuts within a year of being drafted is 8 (2008).

The final attachment is a CSV I put together that combines draft data scraped from baseball-reference (June Amateur Drafts 2004 and onward), and debut data from Lahman's DB. This is where the info in the second screenshot comes from and it is being attached cause I'd be very pleased if someone can double-check my work

If I'm right, we are still seeing an excess of players reaching the majors in a short period of time. I think this patch has improved upon what we were seeing in prior versions, but I think the default development may still be a bit funky.

*EDIT:
Additionally, and while I'm aware that two draft years isn't that large a sample size, 10 players drafted in my test league's 2021 draft debuted in or before 2022.

[Mat]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

As far as the changes in the patch, the underlying source of the players getting to the majors too quickly was that some players were developing too quickly while still in the draft pool, and thus coming out of the draft too far up on the development curve, with too high current ratings. Then with even normal amounts of development once in the minors, they were hitting the majors too soon.

The adjustments we made should significantly improve that now. Obviously it still might not be perfect, and if there are still issues, we can look at tweaking things more.

The biggest issue I see (fictional league) is with how the the rookie draftees are generated. There is always a group that are quite well developed each year. And these will move quickly through the system.