Do pitchers receive a penalty the third time through a lineup?

MikeS369 · 05-02-2021, 02:29 AM

?

slugga27 · 05-02-2021, 06:06 AM

Yes.

Source: The devs have mentioned this in the past.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Brad K · 05-02-2021, 02:22 PM

So accumulation of fatigue isn't enough.

Reed · 05-02-2021, 02:41 PM

Yes, I remember that last year one of the developers mentioned there was an extra penalty 3rd time through the lineup.

thehef · 05-02-2021, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reed

Yes, I remember that last year one of the developers mentioned there was an extra penalty 3rd time through the lineup.

Is "3rd time time through..." supported by the stats, historically speaking?

I realize it's not quite the same statistic, but I looked up the 300-game-winners - W Johnson, Feller, Carlton, Spahn, Maddux, Ryan, Sutton, Perry, Seaver, Glavine, R Johnson, Grove, Wynn, plus Koufax, Drysdale, Hershiser, Schilling, Clemens, Valenzuela - and of their various Situational Splits, none had a "Close & Late" drop-off in AVG or OBP of any significance. Many had better numbers. The only one who sort of stuck out was Phil Niekro, whose Close & Late AVG was higher by a mere 5 points, but whose OBP was 14 points higher...

Again, I realize this is not the same stat, but it would at least suggest that - historically if not currently - among the better pitchers, they did not perform worse after going through the lineup a couple of times.

And even in looking at a few of the best current pitchers, Kershaw, Bauer, Strasburg, Verlander, Cole all suffer no drop-off in Close & Late. Of the handful + I looked up, deGrom was the only exception.

jaa36 · 05-02-2021, 04:25 PM

In the "real" MLB, it's definitely a real effect, and occurs for every time through the order, not just the third.

This is a good review of the topic.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...order-penalty/

Mancandy · 05-03-2021, 05:43 AM

The times through the order penalty is a myth, it was pitch count all along.

This is a good review, from the same site, four months later:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...order-penalty/

Brad K · 05-03-2021, 07:44 AM

So we have a rating for pitchers. As the game progresses OOTP reduces that with fatigue. Third time through the order OOTP reduces it some more. Except!!!! ... more runs are scored in the 1st inning than other innings. So how does that work?

fuzzy_patters · 05-03-2021, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

So we have a rating for pitchers. As the game progresses OOTP reduces that with fatigue. Third time through the order OOTP reduces it some more. Except!!!! ... more runs are scored in the 1st inning than other innings. So how does that work?

The first inning is the only inning where the best hitters are always due up. The bottom third of the order sometimes bats in 2-9.

Cobbiusto · 05-03-2021, 11:10 AM

I think there is also some validity to the idea that it often takes a starting pitcher a few batters to settle in, adjust to the different feel of the on field mound versus the bullpen, the umpire's strike zone, etc. At least I've heard several old vets describe it that way.

Simmo13 · 05-03-2021, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fuzzy_patters

The first inning is the only inning where the best hitters are always due up. The bottom third of the order sometimes bats in 2-9.

I seem to remember in a very old Baseball Abstract (1987/88?) that Bill James' research showed that although the number of first inning RS was above average it was more than offset by the low number scored in the second when the bottom of the order was most likely to hit....so the average of innings one and two was actually lower than any subsequent innings.

Pronkytonk · 05-04-2021, 09:53 AM

There is definitely a logic in the game that causes pitchers to become less effective the third time through the order. Mat Arnold hinted this in another thread and it matches my experiences with the game.

Sadly, the effect is way too strong in 22, I see pitchers fall off a cliff after cruising through the first four or five innings way too often ... it is as always, the game tends to do too much when trying to simulate certain real life things. It may have something to do with the developers messing with pitcher stamina in this version, which has to be corrected ASAP since it is clearly out of whack.

It is the same thing as with the effect that a pitcher becomes waaay less effective when losing a no hitter after the fourth inning ... about 75% of the time he will get shelled horribly after giving up the first hit. These things happen IRL, but not this frequently.

In the most previous versions, general gameplay got a little better after a few patches, so there is hope that this will possibly not add to the growing number of flaws in gameplay. So I will wait and play v21 in the meantime.

Please don't get me wrong, the developers do an awesome job 99% of the time, but sometimes they just tend to fix things that ain't broken ...

fredbeene · 05-07-2021, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reed

Yes, I remember that last year one of the developers mentioned there was an extra penalty 3rd time through the lineup.

Is this in the manual? I don't see it when discussing fatigue. I also do not see any in game help

fredbeene · 05-07-2021, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pronkytonk

There is definitely a logic in the game that causes pitchers to become less effective the third time through the order. Mat Arnold hinted this in another thread and it matches my experiences with the game.

Sadly, the effect is way too strong in 22, I see pitchers fall off a cliff after cruising through the first four or five innings way too often ... it is as always, the game tends to do too much when trying to simulate certain real life things. It may have something to do with the developers messing with pitcher stamina in this version, which has to be corrected ASAP since it is clearly out of whack.

It is the same thing as with the effect that a pitcher becomes waaay less effective when losing a no hitter after the fourth inning ... about 75% of the time he will get shelled horribly after giving up the first hit. These things happen IRL, but not this frequently.

In the most previous versions, general gameplay got a little better after a few patches, so there is hope that this will possibly not add to the growing number of flaws in gameplay. So I will wait and play v21 in the meantime.

Please don't get me wrong, the developers do an awesome job 99% of the time, but sometimes they just tend to fix things that ain't broken ...

So is this change in the manual or change notes?
Is it shown by increased FATIGUE? or does it 'just happen'

OutS|der · 05-07-2021, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pronkytonk

It is the same thing as with the effect that a pitcher becomes waaay less effective when losing a no hitter after the fourth inning ... about 75% of the time he will get shelled horribly after giving up the first hit. These things happen IRL, but not this frequently.

How many times have you seen this happen? Cause in real life it's happened thousands if not hundred of thousands of times. What you see is called a small sample size and it means nothing. Are the Giants the 2nd best team in the MLB? Of course not it's only 31 games. Until you have seen thousands of no hitter lost after the 4th inning your 75% is meaningless.

Pronkytonk · 05-08-2021, 12:28 PM

I play the game since version 8 and I have seen this hundreds of times so I know what I am talking about. I learned to live with it but the problem with the pitcher losing effectiveness when facing the opposing lineup for the third time does represent a much bigger issue for me.

It might be somewhat realistic in an era where "starters" last only five innings or so but it also happens when playing historical or fictional in a 70s or 80s setting and this is just not acceptable for me. This thing should be corrected ASAP IMHO.

05-02-2021, 02:29 AM	#1
MikeS369 All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2020 Location: USA Posts: 653	Do pitchers receive a penalty the third time through a lineup? ?

05-02-2021, 06:06 AM	#2
slugga27 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,272	Yes. Source: The devs have mentioned this in the past. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

05-02-2021, 02:22 PM	#3
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	So accumulation of fatigue isn't enough.

05-02-2021, 02:41 PM	#4
Reed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 2,339	Yes, I remember that last year one of the developers mentioned there was an extra penalty 3rd time through the lineup.

05-02-2021, 04:25 PM	#6
jaa36 Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,106	In the "real" MLB, it's definitely a real effect, and occurs for every time through the order, not just the third. This is a good review of the topic. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...order-penalty/

05-03-2021, 05:43 AM	#7
Mancandy Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 153 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	The times through the order penalty is a myth, it was pitch count all along. This is a good review, from the same site, four months later: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...order-penalty/

05-03-2021, 07:44 AM	#8
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	So we have a rating for pitchers. As the game progresses OOTP reduces that with fatigue. Third time through the order OOTP reduces it some more. Except!!!! ... more runs are scored in the 1st inning than other innings. So how does that work?

05-03-2021, 11:10 AM	#10
Cobbiusto Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 303	I think there is also some validity to the idea that it often takes a starting pitcher a few batters to settle in, adjust to the different feel of the on field mound versus the bullpen, the umpire's strike zone, etc. At least I've heard several old vets describe it that way.

05-04-2021, 09:53 AM	#12
Pronkytonk Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Germany Posts: 168	There is definitely a logic in the game that causes pitchers to become less effective the third time through the order. Mat Arnold hinted this in another thread and it matches my experiences with the game. Sadly, the effect is way too strong in 22, I see pitchers fall off a cliff after cruising through the first four or five innings way too often ... it is as always, the game tends to do too much when trying to simulate certain real life things. It may have something to do with the developers messing with pitcher stamina in this version, which has to be corrected ASAP since it is clearly out of whack. It is the same thing as with the effect that a pitcher becomes waaay less effective when losing a no hitter after the fourth inning ... about 75% of the time he will get shelled horribly after giving up the first hit. These things happen IRL, but not this frequently. In the most previous versions, general gameplay got a little better after a few patches, so there is hope that this will possibly not add to the growing number of flaws in gameplay. So I will wait and play v21 in the meantime. Please don't get me wrong, the developers do an awesome job 99% of the time, but sometimes they just tend to fix things that ain't broken ...

05-08-2021, 12:28 PM	#16
Pronkytonk Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Germany Posts: 168	I play the game since version 8 and I have seen this hundreds of times so I know what I am talking about. I learned to live with it but the problem with the pitcher losing effectiveness when facing the opposing lineup for the third time does represent a much bigger issue for me. It might be somewhat realistic in an era where "starters" last only five innings or so but it also happens when playing historical or fictional in a 70s or 80s setting and this is just not acceptable for me. This thing should be corrected ASAP IMHO.