Let's talk starting pitcher stamina

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

So if I understand you correctly, Lukas, and using the original opening day example I cited, the SP in the 'simmed games' with stamina ratings similar to Duffy's (had the games been played out and I could watch them as they unfold) would have had their meters well into the red at 85 pitches as well.

If I assume this to be the case, what caused their managers to leave them in as long as they did was a combination of the 'Hook SP' setting and the AI managers preferences in each case.

Yeah, that's my understanding of how this works, though I say that not as the guy doing the actual coding.

[timmermac]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

Sorry, but getting the SP stamina modifier (RH side) 'right' on the Stats and AI was a struggle last year and it is obviously going to be again this year.

And for those who say the 'default modifier is 1.000' where do you get that?
Last year, it was always 1.219 (too high before I adjusted it) for me and this year, after auto calc on opening day, it was .836. Before auto calc the default was .9-something I think. It certainly wasn't 1.000
So I thought OK, let's try this.
Please hear me out and note that I play every game out.

Danny Duffy, 60 stamina, starts the opener for me.
Tosses a gem.
Goes 6 innings, allows 5 hits, one ER, 0 BB, 9 K's and throws 85 pitches.
I was walking a tightrope even leaving him in for the 6th as his meter was already almost drained after 5 but Texas had L-R-L coming up and he was pitching well so I left him in. He got through it.
Before changing pitchers to start the 7th, I visited the mound - he told me he was 'gassed'.
Sorry, but that is not the new norm for a veteran SP. Even on opening day.

Meanwhile, the Texas SP Arihara also throws well. 60 stamina, goes 7 innings, 4 hits, 1 BB, 4 hits and throws 96 pitches. The last 2 innings he threw with his meter already drained.

But here's where the big problem lies. I checked every boxscore on opening day. Lots of good SP. A lot of them threw between 100 and 110 pitches. I'm okay with that on it's own. Best of the best, some low scoring games. etc.

But how do the simulated game results jive with my 60 stamina pitcher telling me he's gassed after an 85-pitch gem? And how will they jive over the course of a full season. I see the problem only getting worse.

And if I boost the SP stamina to 1.000 from the 'default' .865, what happens? My guys can throw a more realistic number of pitches when I play the games out, which is fine. But do the Shane Bieber's of the world now starting tossing 130 pitches in a good start in the simulated games?

This same problem existed last year and it was talked around on these forums. I have attempted to point out the crux of the problem here - finding/searching for something that works equally well for the games I play out and the rest of the sim results.

So much has been improved in the current version of the game but this is an issue that needs more study on the development front IMHO.

I say don't worry about the numerical modifiers. What always works for me is set set pitcher stamina to very high and starting pitcher hook to very slow.

[Dave Stieb II]

Do you play your games out?
Are you playing a Standard 2021 season game?

[slugga27]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

The engine is the same whether you play out a game or you sim.

The big difference would just be your personal tolerance for how far you are willing to push a pitcher into the red on their stamina as opposed to how far the ai is willing to push them.

Lukas, I can understand and appreciate this sentiment, that the sim engine is the same whether you play games out or not. However, that doesn't explain how a guy like Nate Eovaldi is gassed after 80-85 pitches. I get the "going through the order more than twice" argument, but that doesn't explain the actual fatigue aspect.

[slugga27]

Originally Posted by timmermac

I say don't worry about the numerical modifiers. What always works for me is set set pitcher stamina to very high and starting pitcher hook to very slow.

In modern games, we don't want to see guys regularly going past 110 pitches, and certainly not 120 or 130.

Yes, pitchers still go past 110 these days, but it is exceedingly rare.

[timmermac]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

Do you play your games out?
Are you playing a Standard 2021 season game?

I do both current and historic sims, mostly simmed, but as others have siad, the engine works the same if you're simming or playing the games out. No matter what era I play in, I always set pitcher stamina to very high with a slow hook and I get the results I'm looking for, which is plenty of complete games.

[timmermac]

Originally Posted by slugga27

In modern games, we don't want to see guys regularly going past 110 pitches, and certainly not 120 or 130.

Yes, pitchers still go past 110 these days, but it is exceedingly rare.

I don't work like that. I like my starters to throw plenty of pitches. Nolan Ryan routinely had high pitch counts, and he almost never had arm trouble. I honestly think pitchers are being excessively babied nowadays.

[Matt Arnold]

Looking through, I agree we're a little too aggressive at removing pitchers. We'll make some adjustments to balance it a little more, but one suggestion in the meantime is to adjust the "Pitcher Stamina" setting (the one in the middle of the strategy settings) to either low or normal. So many pitching settings, hard to get them to all work together, but each notch there I expect should give your starters another ~10 pitchers. So if you're seeing 80-85 now routinely on Very Low, if you notch that up to normal you'll probably get closer to 100.

[slugga27]

Originally Posted by timmermac

I don't work like that. I like my starters to throw plenty of pitches. Nolan Ryan routinely had high pitch counts, and he almost never had arm trouble. I honestly think pitchers are being excessively babied nowadays.

I don’t disagree that pitchers are babies these days. But...it is what it is.


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[slugga27]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Looking through, I agree we're a little too aggressive at removing pitchers. We'll make some adjustments to balance it a little more, but one suggestion in the meantime is to adjust the "Pitcher Stamina" setting (the one in the middle of the strategy settings) to either low or normal. So many pitching settings, hard to get them to all work together, but each notch there I expect should give your starters another ~10 pitchers. So if you're seeing 80-85 now routinely on Very Low, if you notch that up to normal you'll probably get closer to 100.

Thanks, Matt. Should I be keeping the modifier at .962 (the default)?


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[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by slugga27

Thanks, Matt. Should I be keeping the modifier at .962 (the default)?


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That's up to you. I mean, the modifier there, the Pitcher Stamina setting (like I mentioned) and the Hook Start/Hook Relief settings all play together to get the right balance. There's not one right combo.

[Dave Stieb II]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Looking through, I agree we're a little too aggressive at removing pitchers. We'll make some adjustments to balance it a little more, but one suggestion in the meantime is to adjust the "Pitcher Stamina" setting (the one in the middle of the strategy settings) to either low or normal. So many pitching settings, hard to get them to all work together, but each notch there I expect should give your starters another ~10 pitchers. So if you're seeing 80-85 now routinely on Very Low, if you notch that up to normal you'll probably get closer to 100.

Thanks for contributing, Matt, but this just gets my head swimming more. (My Royals are 2-2, which is okay, but they've blown leads in both losses. They need my undivided attention and I'm just not providing it right now because I'm so darned focused on getting these settings right. LOL)

Seriously though, it seems to me that what you're suggesting might allow a 60-stamina pitcher to not be gassed until he hits at least 100 pitches. And that will work for playing out the games.
But what do all these adjustments do to the simulated results?
I get the 'same engine' part but the same engine isn't producing the same pitcher stamina results (pitches thrown) as what the game engine is doing in my games, which I play out.
What I mean by that is this: It was absolutely essential that I pull 60-stamina SP after 85 pitches of a brilliant start. He was actually quite tired after 70 pitches but I took a flier on him in the 6th inning.On the same day, other starters routinely threw between 100 and 110 pitches.
So it seems to me that whether or not I adjust the different settings up or down, in or out, to get a 60-stamina SP to throw 100 pitches before he is seeking oxygen,other MLB SP with 60-stamina will then be throwing 125-130 pitches routinely.
My head is spinning. I can't even explain myself properly anymore.
It's about realistic 2021 SP pitch counts and results being similar in both my team's 'played out' games and the sim results.

[TwinsTHunter]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

Thanks for contributing, Matt, but this just gets my head swimming more. (My Royals are 2-2, which is okay, but they've blown leads in both losses. They need my undivided attention and I'm just not providing it right now because I'm so darned focused on getting these settings right. LOL)

Seriously though, it seems to me that what you're suggesting might allow a 60-stamina pitcher to not be gassed until he hits at least 100 pitches. And that will work for playing out the games.
But what do all these adjustments do to the simulated results?
I get the 'same engine' part but the same engine isn't producing the same pitcher stamina results (pitches thrown) as what the game engine is doing in my games, which I play out.
What I mean by that is this: It was absolutely essential that I pull 60-stamina SP after 85 pitches of a brilliant start. He was actually quite tired after 70 pitches but I took a flier on him in the 6th inning.On the same day, other starters routinely threw between 100 and 110 pitches.
So it seems to me that whether or not I adjust the different settings up or down, in or out, to get a 60-stamina SP to throw 100 pitches before he is seeking oxygen,other MLB SP with 60-stamina will then be throwing 125-130 pitches routinely.
My head is spinning. I can't even explain myself properly anymore.
It's about realistic 2021 SP pitch counts and results being similar in both my team's 'played out' games and the sim results.

Who was your SP?

I've noticed guys that are listed as "Borderline Starters" instead of just Starters tend to get tired around the 60-75 pitch mark. Is it possible the SP you're using only has 2 above average pitches, with maybe one or two well below average ones?

I've played out ~60 games in the first season of an MLB start, with the default settings, and am seeing my starters get fatigued at normal pitch counts, usually in the 85-95 pitch range. Not sure what would be causing your issues if you have a 3+ pitch starting pitcher, but that is strange for sure.

[Dave Stieb II]

Originally Posted by TwinsTHunter

Who was your SP?

I've noticed guys that are listed as "Borderline Starters" instead of just Starters tend to get tired around the 60-75 pitch mark. Is it possible the SP you're using only has 2 above average pitches, with maybe one or two well below average ones?

I've played out ~60 games in the first season of an MLB start, with the default settings, and am seeing my starters get fatigued at normal pitch counts, usually in the 85-95 pitch range. Not sure what would be causing your issues if you have a 3+ pitch starting pitcher, but that is strange for sure.

If you're happy with the results you are getting, I am honestly happy for you.
But when an established veteran SP with 60-stamina tells me he is "gassed" after 85 pitches of a great opening day start, that is a problem for me.
Especially when 45-stamina SP's are throwing 95 pitches effectively for other teams in the simmed games.

If it was simply a matter of getting pitch counts to a reasonable level in played out games, I could tinker with the modifier enough to make it practical. (And before anyone wonders if it is one particular SP - it is not! I've covered all those bases, too many times to enjoy, for my team and all the others)

But I am looking for reliable guidance on how to adjust to get my SP up to reasonable pitch counts - by 2021 standards - while not bumping up the pitch counts in the simmed games even further. There is already a disconnect between the two.
So I have been tinkering with the modifier, the hook SP setting and the pitcher stamina setting (that one was news to me today - anything I've ever read on the forums suggested pitcher stamina was related to a pitcher's ability to bound back between outings) and the discrepancy still exists and is perhaps a little worse.
But that's my problem I guess.
Immersion is almost shot. Too bad. So many improvements in the game this year but I really want to be a baseball GM/manager, not a programmer constantly tinkering with settings in search of some reasonable, balanced pitch count totals that are reflected in both simmed and played out games.
Thanks for trying to help. I appreciate it. If it comes across any other way, I'm just really frustrated. This is two years in a row this problem has existed. I always shied away from doing anything on the Stats and AI page, figuring it had been tested for exactly this sort of thing and a dummy like me should just leave it alone.
But the disconnect mentioned above is too obvious for me to overlook. So now I am playing 'program adjuster' - something I am not remotely qualifed to do - instead of playing baseball, which is why I bought the game in the first place.

[KBLover]

So far, I'm liking .950 Starter Stamina and .900 Reliever Stamina with -2 (Quick) Starter Hook and Normal Stamina.

I was on Low Stamina from last year's game (or was it '20, I don't remember, it's been a while since I touched them) and moved it up to Normal after seeing the discussion on this thread.

I see some 100-110 outings, especially if the pitcher is doing well and the manager tendency is to a slower hook. A lot of 85 or so through 5 innings (17 pitches per on average), some 90's.

I don't know about simmed vs played results - I can't say I've tracked it but also not noticed anything strikingly different even with the stamina on Low.

[Dave Stieb II]

Thanks KBLover.
Not sure if I understood correctly. Are you comparing the pitch counts in your played out games with those in the simmed games?
If I understood correctly, you are not but when you say "what I am seeing" I question if I understood correctly.

[Dave Stieb II]

So the defaults when I opened the box this year were .9-something modifier with +5 (Very Slow) SP hook, and Very Low pitcher stamina.
That modifier got ratcheted down to .865 when I did the auto calc the morning of opening day. The hook and stamina settings remained the same.

Then a 60-stamina SP is GASSED after 85 pitches on opening day so I do the comparison with the simmed game pitch counts. They did not look like the same league in the same season.

Now you have worked through the process to get the pitch counts/exhaustion to reasonable 2021 levels for the played out games and I really appreciate your patience and consideration in sharing. Where you arrived at and what came out of the box are nowhere near the same, except for the modifier (which adjusted down for me at auto calc and wasn't near the same after that either)

But i've opened the pandora's box for the second version in a row and I need for the simmed pitch count results to look similar to the played out games for pitchers with simllar stamina. For me, that consistency is important.

[KBLover]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

Thanks KBLover.
Not sure if I understood correctly. Are you comparing the pitch counts in your played out games with those in the simmed games?
If I understood correctly, you are not but when you say "what I am seeing" I question if I understood correctly.

Yes both pitch counts and innings.

Meaning, when I watch games (I don't control played games, I play strictly GM). I don't see my guys or the other team's guys go out in a striking different number of pitches.

I don't track it, i.e. I don't have a spreadsheet or other tabulation to compare data between played and simmed games. But when I see "6 IP, 87 Pi" in the box score, I get around that many when I play out a game with that pitcher, assuming he's throwing a decent game.

[timmermac]

I usually sim games, so I don't really pay attention to pitch counts. When I do play games out, I have a fairly strict rule. As long as the starter hasn't given up 5 or 6 runs, I will let them throw at least 8 innings. If the score is close after 8 and the starter isn't throwing a shutout, the closer will come in. If the starter has a shutout going or as lead of more than 3 runs, he'll get the complete game. I don't give a rat's heinie about pitch counts. I set pitcher stamina to very high and team strategy SP hook settings all the way to the right. I don't like bullpens. I've seen too many instances of bullpens blowing nice comfy leads for me to trust them.

[KBLover]

Finished my season and since it's been quite a while since I did an autocalc and with the new version, I did one.

It set the following - all (but two) that are relevant to this topic pretty different than what I had. The most notable to this discussion

SP Hook -5 (I had -2)
RP Hook -2 (I had default)

Pitcher Stamina: Normal (same)

SP Stamina .802 (I had .950)
RP Stamina .900 (same)

The preseason prediction has a wide range of IP for starters. Among to the top pitchers listed for each league, the starters IP range from 170 to 230 (two of those, with one posting 341 K's a couple seasons ago).