Awful 1B Defense killing WAR?

Astros2000 · 02-09-2021, 09:23 PM

I have a 1B with 113 OPS+/119 WRC+ , but -0.5 WAR thru 88 games. Hes awful on D (.695 EFF), but its only 1B.

Is his -0.5 WAR really an accurate representation? Is he a player that is hurting the ball club?

Argonaut's great thread shows the Gold Glove 1B vs awful 1B is only worth .84 wins over 162 games...?(https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=308062)

Attached are his ratings and stats. Any help would be great.

pgjocki · 02-09-2021, 09:36 PM

I'd go with WAR is overrated. It's "a" way of assessing value but look at the Angel's. Mike Trout puts up crazy WAR and the team is still terrible. If you are winning then don't worry about it.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Brad K · 02-09-2021, 09:52 PM

What does his RC27 look like?

Astros2000 · 02-09-2021, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

What does his RC27 look like?

RC27 is 7.1

WPA is 3.69.

Not quite sure how to use either of those to eval a player though...

Brad K · 02-09-2021, 10:24 PM

I've been wary of WAR ever since I read about the early version in the first sabermetrics book. The book up to that point was all about how baseball managers were wrong. SACs were usually a loser, SBs have an extremely high break even point, ignoring the value of walks, that sort of thing. Then we come to WAR and suddenly they rely upon the managers subjective decision on who to play to determine the baseline production for WAR.

Think about it. Replacement level is 80% or whatever of the performance of the people who actually played the position. Arbitrary. And who played the position is based on decisions of those the book proved were ignorant.

Anyway, how does RC27 compare to your teams actual scoring?

Astros2000 · 02-09-2021, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

Anyway, how does RC27 compare to your teams actual scoring?

What do you mean? We score 5.11 runs/game

TGH-Adfabre · 02-09-2021, 11:07 PM

Does anyone know if ZR only refers to hit balls or does it also refer to 1B caught balls?His ZR is horrible but his errors are 1 every 13-14 games.

Brad K · 02-10-2021, 01:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Astros2000

What do you mean? We score 5.11 runs/game

He produces more than your average player.

Argonaut · 02-10-2021, 02:02 AM

My test had guys at the lower end rated 50/250, and guys at the higher end rated 200/250 for their position. Molitor can't play 1B or 3B at all, I bet his score is a 1/250 there. DH only at this point in his career. Bucking the trend in this thread, I would trust the WAR. He's playing awful defense. Trade him to the American League!

Brad K · 02-10-2021, 07:56 AM

Is the game computing complete WAR or just offensive WAR? I assumed offensive only but on second thought combined would be a explanation for a negative WAR.

RchW · 02-10-2021, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

Is the game computing complete WAR or just offensive WAR? I assumed offensive only but on second thought combined would be a explanation for a negative WAR.

I'd suggest it's overall WAR.The use of oWAR and dWAR for each split is well established outside of OOTP. The devs should comment.

JerseyPirate · 02-10-2021, 11:09 AM

.792 is not a good OPS for a 1st baseman. Add to that his terrible defense and it explains his negative WAR. OBP should be above .350 and slugging over .500 for a 1st base. That's baseline.

Matt Arnold · 02-10-2021, 12:43 PM

WAR includes defense and positional adjustments. So 1B needs to do something to go positive, and -22 ZR is... horrible. Basically at that level, he's probably letting a double through his legs every couple games, and his offense isn't enough above average to counter that.

Brad K · 02-10-2021, 02:17 PM

Thanks for the clarification.

dkgo · 02-10-2021, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgjocki

I'd go with WAR is overrated. It's "a" way of assessing value but look at the Angel's. Mike Trout puts up crazy WAR and the team is still terrible. If you are winning then don't worry about it.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Because Mike Trout's WAR only says how good he is, not the other 24 players...

timmermac · 02-10-2021, 06:10 PM

He needs to go to the other league and DH. That defense is pathetic, and the offensive production isn't enough to cover it. Honestly, if you want to keep him playing regularly in Philly, make him a 2B.

Astros2000 · 02-10-2021, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Argonaut

My test had guys at the lower end rated 50/250, and guys at the higher end rated 200/250 for their position. Molitor can't play 1B or 3B at all, I bet his score is a 1/250 there.

Any idea where 20 on the 20-80 scale typically fall on the x/250 scale?

Matt Arnold · 02-10-2021, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Astros2000

Any idea where 20 on the 20-80 scale typically fall on the x/250 scale?

About 1-8

mytreds · 02-11-2021, 03:22 AM

It’s better to have better hitters than better defenders, in my experience.

treymancini · 02-11-2021, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgjocki

I'd go with WAR is overrated. It's "a" way of assessing value but look at the Angel's. Mike Trout puts up crazy WAR and the team is still terrible. If you are winning then don't worry about it.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

The Angels are terrible because they can't pitch, and for a long time their lineup was more or less just Trout, Upton, and Simmons or something similar.

The low WAR means mostly likely his defense is bad. As said above, -22 ZR is putrid, like David Ortiz playing the field every day levels of bad. Your guy is a decent hitter, but probably should be DH or bench bat.

That said, WAR is overrated, but it's a nice baseline measure to see "okay this player isn't worth as much as I'd expect, why is that?" You then dig into the other stats to see why and to see if the low WAR has merit. In this case, that low ZR is the culprit.

02-09-2021, 09:23 PM	#1
Astros2000 Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 70	Awful 1B Defense killing WAR? I have a 1B with 113 OPS+/119 WRC+ , but -0.5 WAR thru 88 games. Hes awful on D (.695 EFF), but its only 1B. Is his -0.5 WAR really an accurate representation? Is he a player that is hurting the ball club? Argonaut's great thread shows the Gold Glove 1B vs awful 1B is only worth .84 wins over 162 games...?(https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=308062) Attached are his ratings and stats. Any help would be great. Attached Images

02-09-2021, 09:36 PM	#2
pgjocki All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Maryland - just outside DC Posts: 1,590	I'd go with WAR is overrated. It's "a" way of assessing value but look at the Angel's. Mike Trout puts up crazy WAR and the team is still terrible. If you are winning then don't worry about it. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk __________________ - - - World Series championships: 1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, 1982, 2006, 2011

02-09-2021, 11:07 PM	#7
TGH-Adfabre Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 2,599	Does anyone know if ZR only refers to hit balls or does it also refer to 1B caught balls?His ZR is horrible but his errors are 1 every 13-14 games. __________________ You mock me, therefore I am My wife

02-10-2021, 02:02 AM	#9
Argonaut All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 1,085	My test had guys at the lower end rated 50/250, and guys at the higher end rated 200/250 for their position. Molitor can't play 1B or 3B at all, I bet his score is a 1/250 there. DH only at this point in his career. Bucking the trend in this thread, I would trust the WAR. He's playing awful defense. Trade him to the American League! __________________ Texas Rangers Dynasty (Est. 1972) Hartford Whalers Dynasty: Brass Bonanza

02-10-2021, 06:10 PM	#16
timmermac Major Leagues Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Portland, OR Posts: 449	He needs to go to the other league and DH. That defense is pathetic, and the offensive production isn't enough to cover it. Honestly, if you want to keep him playing regularly in Philly, make him a 2B. __________________ Running with the 1950 Braves. Crush the baseball. Drive it before you. And hear the lamentation of the opponent's women. I am king of the diamond! Let there be a grand clubhouse feast! Bring me the finest meats and cheeses in all the land!

02-09-2021, 09:52 PM	#3
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	What does his RC27 look like?

02-09-2021, 10:24 PM	#5
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	I've been wary of WAR ever since I read about the early version in the first sabermetrics book. The book up to that point was all about how baseball managers were wrong. SACs were usually a loser, SBs have an extremely high break even point, ignoring the value of walks, that sort of thing. Then we come to WAR and suddenly they rely upon the managers subjective decision on who to play to determine the baseline production for WAR. Think about it. Replacement level is 80% or whatever of the performance of the people who actually played the position. Arbitrary. And who played the position is based on decisions of those the book proved were ignorant. Anyway, how does RC27 compare to your teams actual scoring?

02-10-2021, 07:56 AM	#10
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	Is the game computing complete WAR or just offensive WAR? I assumed offensive only but on second thought combined would be a explanation for a negative WAR.

02-10-2021, 11:09 AM	#12
JerseyPirate Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 172	.792 is not a good OPS for a 1st baseman. Add to that his terrible defense and it explains his negative WAR. OBP should be above .350 and slugging over .500 for a 1st base. That's baseline.

02-10-2021, 12:43 PM	#13
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 15,833	WAR includes defense and positional adjustments. So 1B needs to do something to go positive, and -22 ZR is... horrible. Basically at that level, he's probably letting a double through his legs every couple games, and his offense isn't enough above average to counter that.

02-10-2021, 02:17 PM	#14
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	Thanks for the clarification.

02-11-2021, 03:22 AM	#19
mytreds All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 1,182	It’s better to have better hitters than better defenders, in my experience. __________________ “Baseball isn’t statistics; it’s Joe DiMaggio rounding second.” “Once, centuries ago, it was the beloved national pastime of the Americas, Wesley. Abandoned by a society that prized fast food and faster games. Lost to impatience.” “ The term ‘WAR’ should be replaced by ‘WAG’. WAR isn’t an actual measurement; it’s just a wild-ass guess” -Bill James RIP National League 1876-2022 Floreat semper vel invita morte. I make custom ballparks.