Gripe (and question) on fielding range drops

[brotherblues]

Just want to air out frustration on outfielders losing range at really young ages without any major injuries.

I scour my league for decent OF with 75+ range (20-80), just because it's something I'm having fun with right now, but in doing so I've discovered these guys drop their range at ridiculously young ages. I see guys on other teams reach their late 30s with 75 OF range but whenever I try to grow a guy like that on my team he loses his range at age 24.

I've had four guys who started off as range 75 guys, and by the time they turned 24-25, their range was lower, in 2 cases very noticeably to 60 and 55.

The two worst cases are guys whom I shifted from CF to RF. Does that have an effect?

[Rain King]

Are you looking at their OF Range or their position rating?

Also, are the ratings changing nearly right away (i.e. could it be that your scouts were overrating them and the range ratings are just adjusting to be more correct as they become scouted at a higher accuracy)?

[jpeters1734]

75+ is not just decent, it's elite!

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

75+ is not just decent, it's elite!

I meant decent ballplayers overall, or at least passable, with elite range

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by Rain King

Are you looking at their OF Range or their position rating?

Also, are the ratings changing nearly right away (i.e. could it be that your scouts were overrating them and the range ratings are just adjusting to be more correct as they become scouted at a higher accuracy)?

Just range. It doesn't change right away. And my guys are regularly scouted so it's always a "high" or "very high" accuracy report on them.

[JerseyPirate]

Range is just 1 part of the equation. I focus on overall position rating.

And when you move a CF to RF, his range will likely drop because corner OF's don't cover as much ground as a CF does. But his overall rating as a RF will be higher than a CF. I often do that with a CF who's a 55 or below. I turn them into corner OF of 65+.

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by JerseyPirate

Range is just 1 part of the equation. I focus on overall position rating.

And when you move a CF to RF, his range will likely drop because corner OF's don't cover as much ground as a CF does. But his overall rating as a RF will be higher than a CF. I often do that with a CF who's a 55 or below. I turn them into corner OF of 65+.

Range is the part of the equation I'm focusing on right now. It's the team type I'm playing around with at the moment. Experimenting and fun and such.

I'm just curious about guys losing range at a young age (don't think it's a scouting issue, it's an actual drop).

I understand being a great pitcher or hitter early on and burning out fast. Happens all the time in real baseball. With outfield range, I just don't see it in reality (barring lower body or even back injuries).

Or maybe it does happen a lot in real life and it's just not something so obvious so it's not talked about?

[Rain King]

Speed typically begins dropping immediately for baseball players (once they reach MLB age). OF Range is largely tied to speed I would imagine. The position fielding rating can likely counteract that for a while because the player has gained experience at the position.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Rain King

Speed typically begins dropping immediately for baseball players (once they reach MLB age). OF Range is largely tied to speed I would imagine. The position fielding rating can likely counteract that for a while because the player has gained experience at the position.

It's actually the other way around. Range is by far the biggest factor in center field rating, so as soon as range starts to decline, so will position rating at CF. For the corner spots, range is less of a factor, so ratings at those positions will decline less or perhaps not at all, depending on the drop in range.

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by Rain King

OF Range is largely tied to speed I would imagine.

What I gather from other threads is that OF range is just very loosely tied to speed, if at all. Outfielders with 80 (max) speed often have crap range. It's explained as being more about instincts and reaction time than actual speed.

Which does call into question why speed would be the source of a drop in range.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by JerseyPirate

And when you move a CF to RF, his range will likely drop because corner OF's don't cover as much ground as a CF does. But his overall rating as a RF will be higher than a CF. I often do that with a CF who's a 55 or below. I turn them into corner OF of 65+.

I'm going to dispute that. I don't believe range drops as an effect of changing positions. I have never seen that to be the case. What you're likely seeing is the range dropping as an effect of the player simply getting older

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

What I gather from other threads is that OF range is just very loosely tied to speed, if at all. Outfielders with 80 (max) speed often have crap range. It's explained as being more about instincts and reaction time than actual speed.

Which does call into question why speed would be the source of a drop in range.

In OOTP, speed actually has nothing to do with range. They may be tied together from a player creation stand point, but not from a simulation standpoint.

Take a CF with 80 range and 20 speed, and he will cover just as much ground as a player with 80 range and 80 speed.

Speed is only a factor on the base paths.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

I'm going to dispute that. I don't believe range drops as an effect of changing positions. I have never seen that to be the case. What you're likely seeing is the range dropping as an effect of the player simply getting older

You are correct.

[brotherblues]

So basically 75 (20-80) is such elite range that most players who reach it won't keep it past age 24 or 25 or so.

[brotherblues]

Number of players in my league (including minors and international complex) who have 75 OF range: 68 players

Breakdown by age:

30+ years old: 4 players
28-29: 4
26-27: 5
24-25: 8
22-23: 20
20-21: 21
18-19: 6
17 and under: 0

This seems to go with what I've seen happen to guys on my team that age 24 is sort of the point beyond which only the select few maintain their elite range.

Also interesting to see 0 players under 18. I used to think defensive ratings were just about set in stone (or near enough) from creation until old-age decline, but this seems to indicate that at least OF range grows from your teenage years and peaks at age 23.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

Number of players in my league (including minors and international complex) who have 75 OF range: 68 players

Breakdown by age:

30+ years old: 4 players
28-29: 4
26-27: 5
24-25: 8
22-23: 20
20-21: 21
18-19: 6
17 and under: 0

This seems to go with what I've seen happen to guys on my team that age 24 is sort of the point beyond which only the select few maintain their elite range.

Also interesting to see 0 players under 18. I used to think defensive ratings were just about set in stone (or near enough) from creation until old-age decline, but this seems to indicate that at least OF range grows from your teenage years and peaks at age 23.

Thanks for the stats! That lines up pretty well with how I thought it would. Definitely shows how rare that trait can be

[BirdWatcher]

This is a bit tangential and not something I am suggesting is modeled in OOTP, but I heard an interesting bit of talk on a recent Fangraphs Effectively Wild podcast. They were discussing George Springer and his age and potential defensive decline as a center fielder and the fact that he is not one of the fastest center fielders in the game to begin with. (Acknowledging of course that he is incredibly fast by normal human standards, just not by elite baseball centerfielders standards.) They indicated that one of their colleagues had studied this topic and their findings showed that centerfielders who were not at the top of the scale in speed actually aged better defensively than their more speedy counterparts. I think the theory is that the speediest centerfielders might rely more on their ability to cover ground where the slightly less speedy centerfielders might have honed better skills at reading balls off the bat, taking more efficient routes to the ball, etc.

Like I said, a bit tangential here but related to some of the issues being discussed here. And I really found this interesting so this is a good excuse to share.

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

This is a bit tangential and not something I am suggesting is modeled in OOTP, but I heard an interesting bit of talk on a recent Fangraphs Effectively Wild podcast. They were discussing George Springer and his age and potential defensive decline as a center fielder and the fact that he is not one of the fastest center fielders in the game to begin with. (Acknowledging of course that he is incredibly fast by normal human standards, just not by elite baseball centerfielders standards.) They indicated that one of their colleagues had studied this topic and their findings showed that centerfielders who were not at the top of the scale in speed actually aged better defensively than their more speedy counterparts. I think the theory is that the speediest centerfielders might rely more on their ability to cover ground where the slightly less speedy centerfielders might have honed better skills at reading balls off the bat, taking more efficient routes to the ball, etc.

Like I said, a bit tangential here but related to some of the issues being discussed here. And I really found this interesting so this is a good excuse to share.

That is interesting indeed.

Did they mention peak age? I found a study saying age 26 was the peak defensive age for baseball players, with a slight gradual decline beginning at 27 and a sharper decline past 30. It made sense. It makes more sense than peaking at 23, which is what I'm seeing in ootp (albeit in a small sample).

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

That is interesting indeed.

Did they mention peak age? I found a study saying age 26 was the peak defensive age for baseball players, with a slight gradual decline beginning at 27 and a sharper decline past 30. It made sense. It makes more sense than peaking at 23, which is what I'm seeing in ootp (albeit in a small sample).

Well, admittedly this was just a small bit of a larger discussion most of which wasn't about this. I should probably try to find the study they were referencing at some point.
But again, I also realize that my comment was tangential to the question you are asking and I apologize that I don't have any answers to offer you about that. But this did seem to connect to some of the other paths this discussion was headed down regarding the connection between foot speed and defensive abilities for centerfielders.

EDIT: I guess I could add though, more relevant to your question, that in my fictional league (see signature below) I have not seen what you are describing. My very gifted centerfielder on my Denver Brewers team is approaching 30 and remains one of the better defenders at his position in the game. Now of course many other center fielders who were quite rangy in their younger years have seen more drastic declines while a few of the future Hall of Famers at the position remained quite good well into their mid-30's and at least one is still at least not a disaster at the position at age 40, though he mostly plays the corner outfield positions (where he remains near Gold Glove caliber.) It is so hard to generalize about OOTP because of all of the variations in leagues/saves and ways to set up a game. I have this league set up in such a way as to encourage more graceful aging so that might account for why my results differ from yours. Though don't get me wrong, players at premium positions still mostly peak early and see steady declines from their mid-20's onward. But certainly many others plateau a bit longer and don't see significant declines until well into their 30's.