700 standard packs or 230 gold?

[thejojo]

Originally Posted by RunninYakAngler

Yeah, after the 60 packs I opened, in the next 10 packs I got a 99 Al Simmons, 98 Newhouser and a 94 Historical Greinke with a L7 of 120k. It does get frustrating at times though.

I had a similar story, a couple months ago I bought 200 packs and got 1 live perfect and a 97 Piazza until I got to the final 50. There I pulled a Mays PEAK, Hubbell PEAK and 3 more live perfects all in the last 50 packs.

But like everyone else is saying there is a lot of randomness in packs.
It's almost like you get a really good day when you pull a ton then you get nothing for a while.

[dboeyr12007]

Originally Posted by thejojo

I had a similar story, a couple months ago I bought 200 packs and got 1 live perfect and a 97 Piazza until I got to the final 50. There I pulled a Mays PEAK, Hubbell PEAK and 3 more live perfects all in the last 50 packs.

But like everyone else is saying there is a lot of randomness in packs.
It's almost like you get a really good day when you pull a ton then you get nothing for a while.

Yeah that is an insane streak, perfects are 1 in 1000 cards, so 1 pack in 200 on average since there are 5 non guaranteed cards in a pack. So to hit 6 perfects in 200 is incredible.

[Motion]

Ive pulled 4 Perfects ever and 3 were historical, kinda assumed that historical was more likely because of the massive disparity between live and historical perfects

[Quinta]

I was trying to figure out what the expected PP value is for regular, Gold, Diamond, and Historical packs so I can make better decisions about what collections to go after. In doing that work I thought about the central question in this thread -- 3 Regulars v 1 Gold pack (or if you prefer 700 Regular v 233 Gold).

My first intuition was the same as BigRed75. 5 of the 6 cards are going to have same odds so go for the 15 chances at something good vs the 5 chances. Like others have said above if it is only about trying to max chances at Diamond or Perfect then yes take the regular packs.

But if you actually do the math--and I figured someone should point this out even it may not be relevant to what Thundercrack's situation is/was--Gold cards are actually the better value in PP expected value. In the 3 Regular vs 1 Gold you are weighing 15 REVs (Regular Card expected value) + 3 BEVs (Bronze Expected value) against 5 REVs + 1 GEV. I expect someone has already created fairly exact BEV and GEV estimates and likely REV estimates so if you would like to share them with me I would really appreciate it.

I am just spit balling a bit on the estimates but it is clear that the Gold Pack very likely has more value than Regular Pack. Take away the 5 REVs above and the real comparison is 10 REVs + 3BEVs vs. 1 GEV. I estimate (again spitballing and will work to make this more exact) the REV is worth 110-120 PP average. The BEV is around 33 PP. Is the expected PPS of 1200-1300 PP from the Regular Pack pulls worth more than expected PPs of 1 GEV. I think the GEV is likely between 1300-1500 (once again spitballing) so the Gold Pack pull is worth more in PPs than 3 Regulars.

I understand this thread is more about getting a higher chance of Perfects and Diamonds (variance is more important than average) but for people for whom PP is still important (newer and still building players) the Gold Card option should not be dismissed.

On a related note I am looking for Live vs Non-Live EVs as well to further make my calculations better. With what I have spitballed so far Historical Packs do not appear that much better than Gold (although I may be underestimating the difference in value between average Live and Non-Love pulls at each card level.

[dboeyr12007]

Originally Posted by Quinta

I was trying to figure out what the expected PP value is for regular, Gold, Diamond, and Historical packs so I can make better decisions about what collections to go after. In doing that work I thought about the central question in this thread -- 3 Regulars v 1 Gold pack (or if you prefer 700 Regular v 233 Gold).

My first intuition was the same as BigRed75. 5 of the 6 cards are going to have same odds so go for the 15 chances at something good vs the 5 chances. Like others have said above if it is only about trying to max chances at Diamond or Perfect then yes take the regular packs.

But if you actually do the math--and I figured someone should point this out even it may not be relevant to what Thundercrack's situation is/was--Gold cards are actually the better value in PP expected value. In the 3 Regular vs 1 Gold you are weighing 15 REVs (Regular Card expected value) + 3 BEVs (Bronze Expected value) against 5 REVs + 1 GEV. I expect someone has already created fairly exact BEV and GEV estimates and likely REV estimates so if you would like to share them with me I would really appreciate it.

I am just spit balling a bit on the estimates but it is clear that the Gold Pack very likely has more value than Regular Pack. Take away the 5 REVs above and the real comparison is 10 REVs + 3BEVs vs. 1 GEV. I estimate (again spitballing and will work to make this more exact) the REV is worth 110-120 PP average. The BEV is around 33 PP. Is the expected PPS of 1200-1300 PP from the Regular Pack pulls worth more than expected PPs of 1 GEV. I think the GEV is likely between 1300-1500 (once again spitballing) so the Gold Pack pull is worth more in PPs than 3 Regulars.

I understand this thread is more about getting a higher chance of Perfects and Diamonds (variance is more important than average) but for people for whom PP is still important (newer and still building players) the Gold Card option should not be dismissed.

On a related note I am looking for Live vs Non-Live EVs as well to further make my calculations better. With what I have spitballed so far Historical Packs do not appear that much better than Gold (although I may be underestimating the difference in value between average Live and Non-Love pulls at each card level.

I could be wrong, but I thought awhile back someone made a chart of regular/gold/historic/diamond payouts and found that regular was slightly ahead of gold and diamond but not by much. Historic was awful.

Edit: I actually found it. Allenciox is to thank. https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...storical+packs

[Quinta]

Originally Posted by dboeyr12007

I could be wrong, but I thought awhile back someone made a chart of regular/gold/historic/diamond payouts and found that regular was slightly ahead of gold and diamond but not by much. Historic was awful.

Edit: I actually found it. Allenciox is to thank. https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...storical+packs

Thanks that is really helpful--I will use most of this and rerun tomorrow. I certainly can confirm with my estimates Historical is a terrible value. I will probably end up with the same conclusion now as his non-live numbers are higher than my spitballing.

But I think Gold still has a chance over 3 Regulars. His live values seem low (either the AH has changed or Allenciox used his own preference). There is no way live Iron has EV of 5. Nearly every card I see has a value of at least 7 if you bother with an auction and some can reach up to 20s. i would estimate I sell my live Irons at least at 8 (a lot of 5s but i sell plenty at 9-12). I would also weight live Gold higher (I absolutely get more from live gold than 1040 average). His Diamond estimate is ONLY sell back for 4K--with the new live Diamond collections that number is much higher.

[dkgo]

Gold vs standard is a simple calculation. You are paying 2000 for a gold instead of bronze. 70% of the time that gold is a live worth 1000 meaning the 30% historical must sell for 4333 after tax. Thats 4766 before. No way the average historical gold hits that.

[Quinta]

Originally Posted by dkgo

Gold vs standard is a simple calculation. You are paying 2000 for a gold instead of bronze. 70% of the time that gold is a live worth 1000 meaning the 30% historical must sell for 4333 after tax. Thats 4766 before. No way the average historical gold hits that.

A good way of looking at it but I think that is a slightly different question.

Anyway I redid Allenciox's expected resale numbers a bit after understanding his post (he was just spitballing the sell value numbers as well as I am). I tweaked Allenciox's non-live numbers down a bit and his live numbers up a bit and overall even my numbers now concede that 3 Regulars have a higher EV over 1 gold. The mistake I made above was valuing the REV (the 5 cards that could be anything) too low. If you are interested I see the REV at 158, the BEV at 45.5 and the GEV at 1470. So in my original comparison the extra 10 REVs + 3 BEV (1716 PPs) is greater than GEV (1470 PP).

You could tweak things further but this is enough of a difference that only major new evidence on sell value averages would change it.

[JudP]

Not just live cards, but I cant believe how many times I get the same player twice in a pack. If I get any more Mercado, Alford, Davis, or Bonicacio cards I'm gonna scream!!!

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by thundercrack

the age old question. What do you think, comrades?

ah

[cardsfan79]

Just thought I would throw my recent experience in.

I did not like the direction one of my teams was going so I started selling off. Had about 90k and decided to put it all in packs. I would buy 5 Gold and 25 regular at a time. Start opening by clicking on a gold pack and open regulars after that. If I hit 2 packs in a row with all less than gold live cards, I would exit out and start again with gold (I am slightly superstitious). If I had a bad run of 10 packs in a row or so, I would exit out, do something else for a few minutes, then get back to it.

All live cards I got I would quick sell and all historic golds and above that I did not need went to auction. Then I would buy in again. Doing this I opened about 200k worth of packs with about 130k in the auction house.

Towards the end I pulled a 99 OVR Boggs (in a gold pack) so i stopped with about 30k still left. The PP from that will definitely supply the foundation for my new team.

[dboeyr12007]

Going to open 1000 packs tonight and see what happens. I debated getting 100 diamonds or 133 historic, but I do not have all of the Silver FOTF done yet either, so I think just having the bulk will help. Although some of the new missions that are heavily weighted toward gold cards made the historic packs super tempting.

[cardsfan79]

Originally Posted by dboeyr12007

Going to open 1000 packs tonight and see what happens. I debated getting 100 diamonds or 133 historic, but I do not have all of the Silver FOTF done yet either, so I think just having the bulk will help. Although some of the new missions that are heavily weighted toward gold cards made the historic packs super tempting.

How did it go? Any pulls worth mentioning?

[dboeyr12007]

Originally Posted by cardsfan79

How did it go? Any pulls worth mentioning?

Nothing Super amazing. I pulled 4 perfect, 3 of which were historic (Mantle, JR Richard, and Wander Franco). I did get lucky in the amount of diamonds. Odds say you should get about 33.3 in 1000 packs and I got 60. Only 14 were historic though, and none of them were the big ones. The biggest value was historic Tatis Jr. who sold for 90K. However I wish I kept him now that I am attempting FOTF San Diego.