Tommy John recovery - innings limit?

DFyvie · 12-21-2020, 01:50 AM

Hello all,

In my save it is the 2021 season and Noah Syndergaard is having a very nice little comeback from TJ surgery. The issue is we are sitting first in the division in July and I have been very strict with Syndergaard's innings (I manage pitch-by-pitch) and will continue to limit the innings in his starts (it was no more than 6 innings before the all-star game and am thinking limiting it to 5 per start from now on).

The goal is to keep his innings for the season as below 200 innings as possible. Should this matter? Am I crazy? Has the Matt Harvey experience turned me into this?

ALB123 · 12-21-2020, 04:02 AM

Honestly, I can't fully understand why you would want to limit someone's innings that way unless you are trying to screw him out of his bonus. OMG. Is that it? Is that what you're trying to do DFyvie?!?! Someone call the players union immediately!!

No, seriously...I would probably set a pitch limit instead. If your goal is to go easy on his arm then the pitch count is a hell of a lot more important than a limit on innings. Since you manage Pitch-by-Pitch do what you've been doing and keep track of how many pitches he usually throws in 6 innings of work - or look at his stats and divide pitches thrown by games started for a quick & dirty average of pitches per appearance.

I don't know enough about Noah to recommend a conservative pitch count limit. On my team, I have Randy Johnson and I feel comfortable allowing him to throw 20-25 more pitches per appearance than my other four starters. He threw a lot of pitches in real life too. I also have Greg Maddux in my rotation. I've gotten complete games from Maddux with 90 pitches multiple times.

Limiting by innings can be dangerous if Noah doesn't have such a great game...walks...an error or two by the fielders... maybe he's not giving up a ton of runs, but if there are a lot of singles - all that adds up fast.

Good luck!

DFyvie · 12-21-2020, 04:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ALB123

Honestly, I can't fully understand why you would want to limit someone's innings that way unless you are trying to screw him out of his bonus. OMG. Is that it? Is that what you're trying to do DFyvie?!?! Someone call the players union immediately!!

No, seriously...I would probably set a pitch limit instead. If your goal is to go easy on his arm then the pitch count is a hell of a lot more important than a limit on innings. Since you manage Pitch-by-Pitch do what you've been doing and keep track of how many pitches he usually throws in 6 innings of work - or look at his stats and divide pitches thrown by games started for a quick & dirty average of pitches per appearance.

I don't know enough about Noah to recommend a conservative pitch count limit. On my team, I have Randy Johnson and I feel comfortable allowing him to throw 20-25 more pitches per appearance than my other four starters. He threw a lot of pitches in real life too. I also have Greg Maddux in my rotation. I've gotten complete games from Maddux with 90 pitches multiple times.

Limiting by innings can be dangerous if Noah doesn't have such a great game...walks...an error or two by the fielders... maybe he's not giving up a ton of runs, but if there are a lot of singles - all that adds up fast.

Good luck!

Yeah, I've had a pitch count on him all season too which has been around 100 pitches per game or 6 innings which ever comes first. Limiting him to 5 innings reduces him to around 75-85 pitches per appearance.

Basically I am trying to save his arm for a playoff drive in which I am hoping to get 3 starts out of him in the post-season.

Contract-wise, I managed to extend him before he came back this season with a $16m per season over 5 years, after this year's arb salary of 11,550,000 taking him to the end of the 2026 season. It's very team-friendly so I am heavily incentivised to keep good care of Noah because the dude will be a bargain if he remains healthy.

Timofmars · 12-21-2020, 05:49 AM

There's 2 different things here. One is knocking off the "rust" of the player after coming back from a long term injury (or off-season). Rust causes the player to be more likely to get hurt and also to perform a bit worse than their true ability. So I usually want to start knocking the rust off ASAP, since if an injury happens, I'd rather have it earlier rather than later. But my assumption is that a player goes into a game with a certain amount of rust, affecting them the same amount the whole game. But after the game, an amount of rust is knocked off (based on innings played/pitched or something like that) which reduce injury risks in following games. So it's a bit like playing blackjack and deciding if you want to hit (pitch him more innings to reduce more rust for the next game) or stay (and take him out now since each inning pitched this game is more risky than innings pitched in the following games). So I like to try to take it really easy on the first game back, maybe even using the guy at a reliever instead of starter, progressing to playing him normally when I think the rust should be gone.

The other issue is that Injuries in general can make players more injury prone in a cumulative effect. So I like to do what it seems you are suggesting, which is to reduce the usage of important players as much as I can afford to, to keep them healthy for the playoffs and future seasons. So I might be inclined to bring in a reliever early for the important starter if the game looks pretty secure due to a good lead. If I manage to get a pretty good lead in the standings, I would also consider being more cautious with the player. And especially after the September expanded roster, I may bench my best players almost entirely until the playoffs if I have a comfortable enough lead.

I also tend to favor using more durable players when I have the luxury. I have some good but fragile relievers, but I'll keep them 100% rested until I really need them. I will prioritize using the most durable ones. This makes it more likely to keep the whole team healthy. This is why I really love my durable long-reliever with high stamina.

DFyvie · 12-21-2020, 11:43 AM

Yeah, I was keen to get him warmed up as he was back after the first week of spring training and was pitching very well in the first few months of the season, so rust wasn't really a factor.

The plan is to go to a 6-man rotation and continue to limit his innings in September. I have Seth Lugo and Cionel Perez (in a trade with Houston last season) in the 'pen giving me a few options if I need to go to a long-man in the games which Syndergaard starts allowing me some flexibility.

ALB123 · 12-22-2020, 02:27 AM

When you have a starting pitcher coming back from an extended leave due to a very serious injury, like Tommy John surgery, do you put him on a Rehab Assignment in AAA or AA before pitching him in the Majors? If you do use the Rehab Assignment option in OOTP how long do you usually keep a Starting Pitcher down in the minors? I think the maximum is 21 days.

Timofmars · 12-22-2020, 04:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ALB123

When you have a starting pitcher coming back from an extended leave due to a very serious injury, like Tommy John surgery, do you put him on a Rehab Assignment in AAA or AA before pitching him in the Majors? If you do use the Rehab Assignment option in OOTP how long do you usually keep a Starting Pitcher down in the minors? I think the maximum is 21 days.

The amount of rust depends on the length of the injury. But I don't think anybody knows for sure how much playtime it takes. If we assume all players after the offseason are at maximum rust (which I guess would be a thing, considering how the rest of the game works, though I don't know if the offseason puts them at max rust), then maybe a general way to estimate the time to eliminate rust is about when the rates of players getting injured comes down to a level that is typical of a mid-season rate of injury. And by time, I mean innings played, not days into spring training.

I don't think sending the player to the minors for rehab is any different than playing them in the ML in terms of eliminating rust. So if the player is still the best option even while rusty, you might want to skip a rehab assignment. On the other hand, maybe it'll be easier to give him a short outing the minors without affecting the outcome of your team if your pitchers are fatigued and need him to pitch more, especially his first game back.

12-21-2020, 01:50 AM	#1
DFyvie Major Leagues Join Date: May 2014 Location: Cambridge, UK Posts: 384	Tommy John recovery - innings limit? Hello all, In my save it is the 2021 season and Noah Syndergaard is having a very nice little comeback from TJ surgery. The issue is we are sitting first in the division in July and I have been very strict with Syndergaard's innings (I manage pitch-by-pitch) and will continue to limit the innings in his starts (it was no more than 6 innings before the all-star game and am thinking limiting it to 5 per start from now on). The goal is to keep his innings for the season as below 200 innings as possible. Should this matter? Am I crazy? Has the Matt Harvey experience turned me into this?

12-21-2020, 04:02 AM	#2
ALB123 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 638	Honestly, I can't fully understand why you would want to limit someone's innings that way unless you are trying to screw him out of his bonus. OMG. Is that it? Is that what you're trying to do DFyvie?!?! Someone call the players union immediately!! No, seriously...I would probably set a pitch limit instead. If your goal is to go easy on his arm then the pitch count is a hell of a lot more important than a limit on innings. Since you manage Pitch-by-Pitch do what you've been doing and keep track of how many pitches he usually throws in 6 innings of work - or look at his stats and divide pitches thrown by games started for a quick & dirty average of pitches per appearance. I don't know enough about Noah to recommend a conservative pitch count limit. On my team, I have Randy Johnson and I feel comfortable allowing him to throw 20-25 more pitches per appearance than my other four starters. He threw a lot of pitches in real life too. I also have Greg Maddux in my rotation. I've gotten complete games from Maddux with 90 pitches multiple times. Limiting by innings can be dangerous if Noah doesn't have such a great game...walks...an error or two by the fielders... maybe he's not giving up a ton of runs, but if there are a lot of singles - all that adds up fast. Good luck! __________________ "I'm on the side that's always lost against the side of Heaven. I'm on the side of snake-eyes tossed against the side of seven" - Leonard Cohen "The Captain"

12-22-2020, 02:27 AM	#6
ALB123 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 638	When you have a starting pitcher coming back from an extended leave due to a very serious injury, like Tommy John surgery, do you put him on a Rehab Assignment in AAA or AA before pitching him in the Majors? If you do use the Rehab Assignment option in OOTP how long do you usually keep a Starting Pitcher down in the minors? I think the maximum is 21 days. __________________ "I'm on the side that's always lost against the side of Heaven. I'm on the side of snake-eyes tossed against the side of seven" - Leonard Cohen "The Captain"

12-21-2020, 05:49 AM	#4
Timofmars Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 251	There's 2 different things here. One is knocking off the "rust" of the player after coming back from a long term injury (or off-season). Rust causes the player to be more likely to get hurt and also to perform a bit worse than their true ability. So I usually want to start knocking the rust off ASAP, since if an injury happens, I'd rather have it earlier rather than later. But my assumption is that a player goes into a game with a certain amount of rust, affecting them the same amount the whole game. But after the game, an amount of rust is knocked off (based on innings played/pitched or something like that) which reduce injury risks in following games. So it's a bit like playing blackjack and deciding if you want to hit (pitch him more innings to reduce more rust for the next game) or stay (and take him out now since each inning pitched this game is more risky than innings pitched in the following games). So I like to try to take it really easy on the first game back, maybe even using the guy at a reliever instead of starter, progressing to playing him normally when I think the rust should be gone. The other issue is that Injuries in general can make players more injury prone in a cumulative effect. So I like to do what it seems you are suggesting, which is to reduce the usage of important players as much as I can afford to, to keep them healthy for the playoffs and future seasons. So I might be inclined to bring in a reliever early for the important starter if the game looks pretty secure due to a good lead. If I manage to get a pretty good lead in the standings, I would also consider being more cautious with the player. And especially after the September expanded roster, I may bench my best players almost entirely until the playoffs if I have a comfortable enough lead. I also tend to favor using more durable players when I have the luxury. I have some good but fragile relievers, but I'll keep them 100% rested until I really need them. I will prioritize using the most durable ones. This makes it more likely to keep the whole team healthy. This is why I really love my durable long-reliever with high stamina.

12-21-2020, 11:43 AM	#5
DFyvie Major Leagues Join Date: May 2014 Location: Cambridge, UK Posts: 384	Yeah, I was keen to get him warmed up as he was back after the first week of spring training and was pitching very well in the first few months of the season, so rust wasn't really a factor. The plan is to go to a 6-man rotation and continue to limit his innings in September. I have Seth Lugo and Cionel Perez (in a trade with Houston last season) in the 'pen giving me a few options if I need to go to a long-man in the games which Syndergaard starts allowing me some flexibility.