AI question re trading

[BillyBall]

I am GM of the Indians and it's 3 days prior to the 2021 trading deadline.

Lindor becomes a FA at the end of the season and I decided to shop him around the league. He is asking for a $43.M per year extension for 10 years which is well beyond our team's ability. He has about $6M left on his current year deal.

Trading difficulty is set to Very Hard and Trading Preference is Neutral.

Some interesting offers came back but there was one that really intrigued me and was a perfect fit going forward. They have offered up an excellent young player in his first MLB year of service at the minimum salary.

The offering team has zero chance of making the playoffs this year and is not especially flush financially currently or projected.

There are only 2 reasons why I could see them possibly making their offer.

1. They think they might be able to sign Lindor to a long term extension before he hits FA. Problem with this is they are not a big market team and are paying a not insignificant price to jump the competition.

2. They could try to flip him for a better return than what they're giving the Indians. They would have 2 days until the deadline to do so.

I just wonder how deep the logic of AI trading gets. In real I can't imagine this offer being made by this team.

I could just ignore this offer as I like to only do realistic trades but if there are valid reasons for them to make it then I would feel differently.

Am I missing something here? I suppose if they kept Lindor for the final 25 home games they might see some increased attendance but not to the tune of $6M.

[CBeisbol]

I would be shocked if the AI were *planning* to flip Lindor

Hard to comment much more without knowing a lot more about the team and league.

There may be some situations where this trade would make sense, but probabky not too many,

[BillyBall]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

I would be shocked if the AI were *planning* to flip Lindor

Hard to comment much more without knowing a lot more about the team and league.

There may be some situations where this trade would make sense, but probabky not too many,

The other team is the D-Backs. They are 21 GB in the NL West and are the 6th WC at 12 GB. They are 19th of 30 in both budget and attendance.

They have $27M for extensions and $24M for FA. They could have up to $15M freed up by declining team options.

They have 3 Star Nick Ahmed at SS signed at $8M per for another 2 seasons.

The player they are offering is LH 1B Pavin Smith a 2017 7th overall draft pick. Consistently solid offensive numbers every year including his MLB debut season. 70/80 defence at 1B, high work ethic and intelligence, no injury history. A dream get for the Indians.

D-Backs GM is Mike Hazen, 13 years experience with a Good rating.

If it was coming from a contending team and/or a big market team I would complete the deal immediately, but I just don't get the logic for the D-Backs.

[Charlie Hough]

Wait, how much is your player asking in the extension? $43 million per year?

If that's the case and the Diamondbacks have only $27M for extensions, then obviously they can't afford this trade. And CBeisbol is right that the AI almost certainly isn't smart enough to be planning to turn around and trade away the player.

Let's be honest. Many GMs and teams throughout MLB history have made trades that didn't seem to make sense at the time and still don't make sense after the fact. The AI in OOTP is not perfect, and often it makes poor decisions too. But if the finances of this deal are that skewed and nonsensical for the AI's team, then I wouldn't proceed with the trade. Something doesn't seem right if the numbers are what you describe.

[BillyBall]

Double checked and those figures are correct.

In theory the D-backs wouldn't know Lindor's $43M request and even if they did they would be able to negotiate I suppose. The highest paid player in either league at the moment is Cole at $36M.

But ya, it just doesn't make much sense for that organization to pony up a valuable young player in a hope and prayer deal like this.

lol...just checked Lindor's extension request and it's more outrageous now

[CBeisbol]

He's not going to sign for that much. So, it's possible the DBacks could want to sign him...

[Charlie Hough]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

So, it's possible the DBacks could want to sign him...

I would assume so, since they're trading for him despite his contract expiring. But even if he's willing to sign for considerably less than his current demand, they won't be able to afford it. As the OP said, they don't know his demand, and if the OP was a real life GM, he wouldn't know the Dbacks' financial situation in this kind of detail. So it's the human user doing a bit of meta-gaming if he declines the trade in order to save the Dbacks from their own mistake. But that might be the best thing to do in the interest of realism since this may be a case of the AI being catastrophically dumb.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

I would assume so, since they're trading for him despite his contract expiring. But even if he's willing to sign for considerably less than his current demand, they won't be able to afford it. As the OP said, they don't know his demand, and if the OP was a real life GM, he wouldn't know the Dbacks' financial situation in this kind of detail. So it's the human user doing a bit of meta-gaming if he declines the trade in order to save the Dbacks from their own mistake. But that might be the best thing to do in the interest of realism since this may be a case of the AI being catastrophically dumb.

Believe me, I'm well-versed in saving these types of games from themselves.

But it looks like they can afford him. And getting a player of Lindor's quality is hardly ever catastrophically dumb

[BillyBall]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Believe me, I'm well-versed in saving these types of games from themselves.

But it looks like they can afford him. And getting a player of Lindor's quality is hardly ever catastrophically dumb

I am going to go ahead with the deal straight up. From my end I'm likely to get negative feedback from the fans for letting Lindor go when we have playoff hopes (currently 4 games up in 2nd WC position).

Since I shopped Lindor around a few interesting things have happened. Lindor's morale has tanked and his extension request went from $43M to $57M. He appears pretty pissed.

Secondly, attendance at the last 2 home games is about 50% under average despite beautiful late July weather and the arch-rival White Sox in town.

Also, the Team Focus has suddenly gone from Win Now to Rebuild. All of this seems to be caused by shopping Lindor for 2 days, even without pulling the trigger.

So, I may be in for some short term pain which will make me feel less guilty about the DBacks situation.

From the DBacks side they look to lose a good piece although admittedly our scout has him ranked a half star higher than the OSA. On the money side there is $6M left on this year's deal and as mentioned before maybe they can recoup some of that with increased attendance and spinoffs from club interest.

Will be interesting to see what happens with Lindor and the DBacks through the offseason.

My guess is they will free up some money and then sign an extension somewhere around Cole's $36M+ to make him the game's highest paid player.

[Charlie Hough]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

But it looks like they can afford him. And getting a player of Lindor's quality is hardly ever catastrophically dumb

Based on their financials, they can't afford him unless he suddenly demands about half of his current requirement or they sacrifice all other extensions, free agent signings, and team options. If they do that, then that's catastrophically dumb because they're not just going to lose one young player. They will potentially lose multiple players and miss out on any other opportunities to improve via free agency.

But I guess BillyBall has decided to go through with it, so I suppose it's a moot point now. Hopefully he'll post some updates so we can see what happens with the Dbacks after this deal.

[BillyBall]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

Based on their financials, they can't afford him unless he suddenly demands about half of his current requirement or they sacrifice all other extensions, free agent signings, and team options. If they do that, then that's catastrophically dumb because they're not just going to lose one young player. They will potentially lose multiple players and miss out on any other opportunities to improve via free agency.

But I guess BillyBall has decided to go through with it, so I suppose it's a moot point now. Hopefully he'll post some updates so we can see what happens with the Dbacks after this deal.

Following the trade I got a mail message saying that Indians fans were shocked and Fan Interest went from 71 to 66 overnight. On the brighter side the players understood the move and felt there was still enough leadership on the team going forward. Team Chemistry took a modest hit.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

Based on their financials, they can't afford him unless he suddenly demands about half of his current requirement or they sacrifice all other extensions, free agent signings, and team options. If they do that, then that's catastrophically dumb because they're not just going to lose one young player. They will potentially lose multiple players and miss out on any other opportunities to improve via free agency.

They can afford him

Originally Posted by BillyBall

They have $27M for extensions and $24M for FA. They could have up to $15M freed up by declining team options.

They have 3 Star Nick Ahmed at SS signed at $8M per for another 2 seasons.

We don't know enough about the rest of the team to say whether or not that is in their best interest

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

Wait, how much is your player asking in the extension? $43 million per year?

If that's the case and the Diamondbacks have only $27M for extensions, then obviously they can't afford this trade. And CBeisbol is right that the AI almost certainly isn't smart enough to be planning to turn around and trade away the player.

I am not sure the AI looks at what the player ask for but rather his current salary. It might have a guess at what he will ask for. I have seen FAs go for much less than they asked me for when I tried to extend. I have even signed guys at less than what they asked for an extension once they hit the market.

Players do ask for more than they really need to accept. Does the AI have a better handle on what they can actually resign him for?

That being said, I have seen some teams way out of contention offering top young talent for a guy they will rent for a couple of months. I have also had many of offers for top vets for prospects when I was way out of contention. I do a house rule, if a team isn't in contention I don't do a trade like this. I suspect it has more to do with if the team is in win now vs. rebuild rather than the actual standing. I don't know that though.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by BillyBall

I am going to go ahead with the deal straight up. From my end I'm likely to get negative feedback from the fans for letting Lindor go when we have playoff hopes (currently 4 games up in 2nd WC position).

Since I shopped Lindor around a few interesting things have happened. Lindor's morale has tanked and his extension request went from $43M to $57M. He appears pretty pissed.

Tough call on that one. I think the second bit gives some insight. He may be asking you for much more because he doesn't like the team. Maybe he doesn't fit the club house chemistry or it is bad. I have let guys go and got messages that the club house is pleased to see him go and some that they were disappointed as well as they appreciate the leadership of a new player.

What a player ask you for an extension and what he will ask a new team could be two very different things. Sometimes if you just let them become free agents you can resign at much less than what they ask for an extension once no one is offering them that. So I wouldn't put too much weight in what he is asking you especially if he is unhappy for some reason like team mates, lineup order, playing DH instead of the field if he is aging, platooning etc. Still 21 games back and trading for a high paid vet isn't a usual thing that is done. Maybe the AI is guessing he will take much less? I can't say. Like I said I do think the team status may have more to do than the position in the standings. I have wondered if a win now team would take a dumb trade when the season is practically over because they are looking at now and not the future. I don't know if that is the case or not.

[Timofmars]

In my experience, the AI is fairly simple. I think some of you give it too much credit. I don't believe they are making assumptions about the player's demands. They just see a highly rated player that is cheap now and not overpriced later, at least no guaranteed salary.

I think the Win Now or rebuild designations just slightly adjust their weighted value towards prospects with potential versus current ability. They still will highly value great players like Lindor, especially if underpaid according to the current contract.

[BillyBall]

At the trade deadline and following the Lindor deal, the Dbacks have moved their SS Ahmed. He was signed for $8M and $10M over the next 2 years. Makes sense.

What doesn't make sense is that they got back Moustakas who has a bloated contract of $16M and $18M over the next 2 seasons!

Dbacks are now down to $16M for FA and $23.6 for extensions. The saga continues.

I just looked at their transaction log since the beginning of the calendar year and they have made just one other trade. About 3 months ago they sent a valuable young catcher to the Mets for an average IF, another ill advised trade.

Regarding Lindor's morale, he was very happy with the Indians and was a team leader highly respected by his teammates. He was having a slightly subpar year for him, but great when compared to other SS.

[Bobbyraz49]

Looking forward to following this. Let's see what he gets in free agency. My guess is he signs a 1 year deal at a modest salary.

[TNCubsFan]

Originally Posted by Timofmars

In my experience, the AI is fairly simple. I think some of you give it too much credit. I don't believe they are making assumptions about the player's demands. They just see a highly rated player that is cheap now and not overpriced later, at least no guaranteed salary.

I think the Win Now or rebuild designations just slightly adjust their weighted value towards prospects with potential versus current ability. They still will highly value great players like Lindor, especially if underpaid according to the current contract.

To expand on this. With no guaranteed money next year it allows them some options. As a human player we are thinking, "Who else is a FA SS next year?" "Do the Dbacks have MI help in AAA who can take over next year?" "Where else can this money be used?" While the AI thinks that "I just improved my lineup!!!"

If the AI planned ahead over two or three years then Marcus and Co. would have one of the best AI in commercial games. As it is, the AI is a three year old who wants ice cream. Dont think it past that point.

[BillyBall]

Originally Posted by TNCubsFan

To expand on this. With no guaranteed money next year it allows them some options. As a human player we are thinking, "Who else is a FA SS next year?" "Do the Dbacks have MI help in AAA who can take over next year?" "Where else can this money be used?" While the AI thinks that "I just improved my lineup!!!"

If the AI planned ahead over two or three years then Marcus and Co. would have one of the best AI in commercial games. As it is, the AI is a three year old who wants ice cream. Dont think it past that point.

Just to play devil's advocate.... Most of the other offers from the Lindor shopping were either lowballs or salary dumps. No harm in trying, right? Then there were a couple of reasonable ones where I could really see the logic.

An example was the Red Sox who are just 1 GB of the Yankees and solidly in the 1st WC spot. They offered Bogaerts straight up. He is signed through the next season at $20M. If the Pavin Smith offer had not been there I would have accepted the Bogaerts deal. Boston has a ton of money and the Lindor upgrade made sense for them and also for me.

Pavin Smith is not a household name and I guess it might have been easy enough to just gloss over him. But for me he's a great pickup for a few months of Lindor and also my scout rates him higher than OSA.

So just to give due credit to the AI, out of 29 teams that responded this was the only one that jumped off the page, and only because it's from a non playoff contender and financially stretched team like the DBacks.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by TNCubsFan

To expand on this. With no guaranteed money next year it allows them some options. As a human player we are thinking, "Who else is a FA SS next year?" "Do the Dbacks have MI help in AAA who can take over next year?" "Where else can this money be used?" While the AI thinks that "I just improved my lineup!!!"

If the AI planned ahead over two or three years then Marcus and Co. would have one of the best AI in commercial games. As it is, the AI is a three year old who wants ice cream. Dont think it past that point.

I'm not a programmer
But isn't the advantage of computers their ability to perform lots of calculations.

That's why computers are good at chess. They analyze lots of moves, and lots of moves ahead.

Perhaps it's my lack of knowledge in the subject area, but it seems to me, the AI should (or could) excel at this.