Over 120 packs straight and not one 90+

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by Ben Music

Just curious, as I've been spamming Bronze tournaments as well, how many packs a week would you say your winning?

I’m working from home so I can glance over every 30 minutes or so to make sure I have three tourneys going. A bad day gets me a couple of packs while a good day gets me 10+. I need to spend some time to evaluate my roster that I have been running with for the last month or so. I should probably make a few tweaks.

[MaroonAlberich]

Originally Posted by Leo_The_Lip

Personally, I don't believe the Negro League player cards exist. My three teams have over 3000 cards between them, likely over 6000 cards opened (at least) and never seen a one.

So let's get back to the real topic, Diamond cards exist, but Negro League cards are a figment invented by the developers to get your money.

Agreed 100%. Read a thread a few days ago in which somebody said that they were extremely profitable for FTPs, and never read anything that had me shaking my head so much. If the drop rate were approaching anything like even perfect-level cards (live or historical), I wouldn't mind. But I've pulled 5 perfects (live, of course, plus one Pedro) while only pulling a single silver NL card. Trying to do this set through the AH is a non-starter unless you are sitting on a pile of PP to begin with. Maybe the price has come down a bit, but hot damn...I'll probably pull five Eddie Cicottes before I pull another two NL cards. I can only guess the boomswitch is on me for this set.

[Ben Music]

Originally Posted by professor ape

I’m working from home so I can glance over every 30 minutes or so to make sure I have three tourneys going. A bad day gets me a couple of packs while a good day gets me 10+. I need to spend some time to evaluate my roster that I have been running with for the last month or so. I should probably make a few tweaks.

You're doing better than I am, a good day for me is a few packs. I should probably do some more analysis than I am.

[des223]

Originally Posted by Lemandria

Cards. 129 decks, 5 cards each deck that 'count' (are not guaranteed bronze cards), 645 cards drawn.

N=645 P=0.01 K=0 p(0)=0.00153 odds approx 653:1 against.

Believe it or not, those are not impossible odds. Unfortunate, but no sign that anything is broken. Thousands of PT users, a dozen of them have luck every bit as bad (or worse) than you.

Need to calculate a binomial probability easily? I recommend vassarstats.

I just wanted to point out that the above numbers for not getting a diamond card are incorrect. The approach is right, but the P value isn't...the odds of getting a diamond are 1:150 cards, not 1:100 as the quoted post implies. That means that the odds of not getting a diamond in 129 packs is:

(1 - (1/150)) ^ (129*5) = 0.0133746, or roughly 1:75

If we also include the chance to get a Perfect card, we have the following...

( 1 - (1/150 + 1/1000) ) ^ (129*5) = 0.00698456, or roughly 1:143

All of this to say, while it's unlikely that so many packs would result in no cards rated Diamond or Perfect, it's exactly the type of slump I think both of my teams are in right now.

[2tango2]

I've seemed to pack quite a few of the NL Silvers and I think Dick Redding or perhaps Judy Johnson gold (or maybe he is silver)?

[Ty Cobb]

Drew 2 diamond and a perfecto in 12 pack stretch today.

Telling you this because I believe that it's best to rub salt in a wound if you don't have a cure...but then, we all know I'm a bit of an *******.

No snarky, "A bit?" in response...it's been a rough couple of weeks for the Cobb's.

[QuantaCondor]

Originally Posted by MaroonAlberich

Agreed 100%. Read a thread a few days ago in which somebody said that they were extremely profitable for FTPs, and never read anything that had me shaking my head so much. If the drop rate were approaching anything like even perfect-level cards (live or historical), I wouldn't mind. But I've pulled 5 perfects (live, of course, plus one Pedro) while only pulling a single silver NL card. Trying to do this set through the AH is a non-starter unless you are sitting on a pile of PP to begin with. Maybe the price has come down a bit, but hot damn...I'll probably pull five Eddie Cicottes before I pull another two NL cards. I can only guess the boomswitch is on me for this set.

If you add up the L7s of all the NL cards required to get Jackie, and compare it to Jackie's value, you come out way ahead. That's it. Of course, not all NL cards are going to be on the AH at once, so it might take a week or two to scoop them all up. And yeah you do need a big pile of PP to do that set, but if you have 300k or so (attainable for F2P through a few different ways) it becomes one of the best ways to spend it. No conspiracy here, just raw numbers.

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by Ben Music

You're doing better than I am, a good day for me is a few packs. I should probably do some more analysis than I am.

I’ve had a really bad stretch the last few days. An hour ago I went in to check my team and found that three of my players disappeared from the active Bronze roster leaving me without a right fielder and an empty rotation slot, That may explain my poor recent performance. I use all historical cards to avoid issues with live cards changing values so I have no idea why my roster changed.

[Torgonius]

Originally Posted by professor ape

I’ve had a really bad stretch the last few days. An hour ago I went in to check my team and found that three of my players disappeared from the active Bronze roster leaving me without a right fielder and an empty rotation slot, That may explain my poor recent performance. I use all historical cards to avoid issues with live cards changing values so I have no idea why my roster changed.

Vic Aldrige disappeared from my roster when I listed him on the AH. I had a duplicate, but apparently the duplicate was the one I had on the roster.

Did you list any of your players that ended up missing? And ditto on the historical teams. I changed regular teams over. I have to finish doing my cap teams the same way.

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by Torgonius

Vic Aldrige disappeared from my roster when I listed him on the AH. I had a duplicate, but apparently the duplicate was the one I had on the roster.

Did you list any of your players that ended up missing? And ditto on the historical teams. I changed regular teams over. I have to finish doing my cap teams the same way.

That’s probably what happened.

Not that I expect this to hold up but since I fixed my rosters my tourney teams are 17-4.

[Thundercrack]

Just opened 25 packs and got perfect Mays and perfect Trout, plus a bunch of golds and silvers. So yeah, I guess things even out

[ronhatch]

Originally Posted by Lemandria

From a micro-transactions standpoint, they already have. That guaranteed bronze card in every deck means that the absolute minimum deck return cannot fall below 35pp, that's 16.7% better than 30pp!!! Wow, absolutely free, now that's some generosity.

Of course it also drastically cuts your odds of drawing the top end bad boy cards. 5 pulls at p .001- is much, much worse than 6 pulls at p .001-. [But shhhhh, people who don't speak math aren't supposed to notice that part.]

Let's use the "perfect, any perfect" draw as an example.
For one pack without a guaranteed bronze, N=6 K=1 P=.001 p=.00597
For one pack with a guaranteed bronze, N=5 K=1 P=.001 p=.00493
That single guaranteed bronze card cuts your "top end" card draws by 17.4+%

So is it a throttle, or a brake?

When I first started playing, I just assumed that "one guaranteed bronze" meant that it guaranteed at LEAST that. So obviously you would generate six random cards and then upgrade one to bronze if all six ended up being iron... because nobody would offer a guarantee that actually hurts the person receiving the guarantee, right? I hadn't figured out yet that everything in this game is coded as simply as possible, regardless of whether or not that leads to a positive customer experience.

[mcdog512]

Originally Posted by ronhatch

When I first started playing, I just assumed that "one guaranteed bronze" meant that it guaranteed at LEAST that. So obviously you would generate six random cards and then upgrade one to bronze if all six ended up being iron... because nobody would offer a guarantee that actually hurts the person receiving the guarantee, right? I hadn't figured out yet that everything in this game is coded as simply as possible, regardless of whether or not that leads to a positive customer experience.

You thought a card would be "Upgraded"? Man, in 100 years I would not have come up with that idea. That said, collected baseball cards for years so the concept of a card in a pack "upgrading" was like a unicorn ****ting out gold dust.

[eldur00]

Originally Posted by mcdog512

You thought a card would be "Upgraded"? Man, in 100 years I would not have come up with that idea. That said, collected baseball cards for years so the concept of a card in a pack "upgrading" was like a unicorn ****ting out gold dust.

I also thought the Bronze pack had a guarantee of a "Bronze Card or better" at the start of PT19. The misconception comes from playing other card collecting games where packs with a "...or better" or "...at least" labels are fairly common.

[MaroonAlberich]

Originally Posted by QuantaCondor

If you add up the L7s of all the NL cards required to get Jackie, and compare it to Jackie's value, you come out way ahead. That's it. Of course, not all NL cards are going to be on the AH at once, so it might take a week or two to scoop them all up. And yeah you do need a big pile of PP to do that set, but if you have 300k or so (attainable for F2P through a few different ways) it becomes one of the best ways to spend it. No conspiracy here, just raw numbers.

No argument here. But my point is that very few FTP players are going to be sitting on 300K, or even 100K (or 10K, for that matter). I would wager that, since we're in a forum dedicated to OOTP, the people posting here will be better informed, more involved, whatever. But there are also a lot of people (who we never see here or in Discord) who see this mission, think it's out of their reach and chalk it up as just one more thing that the game is offering big spenders, but not them. Those players won't be thinking along the same lines you are.

(Which, honestly, is fine with me. We need big spenders; we need those players who don't give a damn about the card cost 5 minutes after a mission goes live--they'll buy Connor Joe (or whatever) for 10K. They make up for all those people that think they're getting a neat baseball sim, toy with the base game for awhile, try PT and get jaded, and never come back. But for me, the question is, what happens if enough of those people don't come back? I just found the game this year, dropped maybe $100 on it above and beyond the license, and can definitely see how it needs to find new customers annually. Either that or we're seeing the natural progression already. Now it's not good enough to simply have whales, the game also needs super-whales to stay afloat.)

Focusing only on the NL (or any collection, really), isn't how the collections should be viewed. Yes, the Live Missions were insanely easy/cheap for the payoff. But there are many Fridays that I've woken up to find that I've got 7-10 completed missions already. Some missions are easy, some are hard. (Although I would think that the devs might consider some sort of dynamic rating for how difficult a mission is. If 3% have completed it a month out, change it from a one-star mission to something more reflective of its actual difficulty.) I guess this is to say that there is a decent--if not great--mixture of mission types. I think the devs could do better at putting in more pack-reward missions that will appeal to everybody, but they know how their bottom line is affected better than I do, and I guess that they're happy with it.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by eldur00

I also thought the Bronze pack had a guarantee of a "Bronze Card or better" at the start of PT19. The misconception comes from playing other card collecting games where packs with a "...or better" or "...at least" labels are fairly common.

Yes that is definitely the norm although you realize pretty quick. I hope it changes next year. Give the people just a little bit of equity back.

[ronhatch]

Originally Posted by mcdog512

You thought a card would be "Upgraded"? Man, in 100 years I would not have come up with that idea. That said, collected baseball cards for years so the concept of a card in a pack "upgrading" was like a unicorn ****ting out gold dust.

Well, I'm coming at it from the standpoint of having written my first computer program roughly forty years ago, so upgrading a *virtual* card seems obvious to me.

[professor ape]

Originally Posted by professor ape

That’s probably what happened.

Not that I expect this to hold up but since I fixed my rosters my tourney teams are 17-4.

Lesson learned about watching my tournament rosters for gaps after selling duplicate cards. From Monday to Wednesday I won only two packs. Since fixing my roster on Wednesday afternoon I have won 14 packs. Nothing great from them but a few golds and overpriced silvers which I have been able to turn around for points.

[Motion]

I finally got one of those epic packs people post, 2 diamonds and a gold in the same pack. Of course them being all lives goes without saying

[Magus978]

Originally Posted by Motion

I finally got one of those epic packs people post, 2 diamonds and a gold in the same pack. Of course them being all lives goes without saying

Essentially a free 9k in quicksell value. Pretty good pack value-wise, even though you'd want to see a usable historical in there.