Ovr, pot, & health

the54effect · 07-23-2020, 04:15 PM

In '21 I *FEEL* like I have noticed OVR/POT ratings mirroring health status more than they used to. I have not run any experiments to corroborate this feeling, but anticipate that with the increased focus on recency of scouting reports, it stands to reason that they would more directly mirror a player's current condition.

More specifically I have noticed with several pitchers that suffer major /long term injuries, their ratings remain the same for a few months, then drop a bit halfway through the injury- then in the month or two before they are set to return, the ratings plummet. (Sometimes injured guys don't seem to with at all. Could be the injury, or the player, or both, I guess!) Sometimes they stay dead, sometimes they bounce back to something resembling their pre-injury self, and sometimes they come all the way back.

If this is the case, I feel like the potential rating nosediving alongside the overall rating is somewhat disconcerting? If a major league player's overall and potential suddenly collapse the assumption would be that they are toast. If they're coming back from injury and there is a range of outcomes, shouldn't the potential stay (or reflect their new, post injury ceiling) rather than depict them as shot? I feel like a scout would have the presence of mind to factor an injury into their projection, while a team would consult some doctor reports.

Typically prospects progress (or not so much) and their potential comes down to meet their true talent level, with some ups and downs along the way. Sometimes guys spike up, sometimes guys fall off cliffs.

I feel like MOST guys that carve out a pro career, like at some point they reach their plateau and maybe their go up or down by 3-8 points here and there, individual ratings move a little bit, at some point they peak and then go downhill at various rates.

ANYWAYS. Most of this rambling is to ask, if this is a thing, where hurt players have their ratings bottom out then rebound, has anyone noticed any hints as to whether a player may or may not bounce back? Queues to watch for? Or is this all in my imagination!?

Wallad89 · 07-24-2020, 01:28 PM

I've never seen a player fully rebound from a big injury. Some get away with one or two but more injuries mean more future injuries. In my save Walker Buehler tore his flexor tendon in 2020, scouting reports show minor ratings drop, but he recovered and had 4 strong seasons before tearing it again in 2024, and now in 2026 he's borderline useless if he's even healthy. They always seem to be a ticking time bomb, although four 6 war seasons might be worth it(they won the world series in 21 and 22), they are now stuck with a $24million AAA reliever.

07-23-2020, 04:15 PM	#1
the54effect Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2016 Location: New York Posts: 109	Ovr, pot, & health In '21 I FEEL like I have noticed OVR/POT ratings mirroring health status more than they used to. I have not run any experiments to corroborate this feeling, but anticipate that with the increased focus on recency of scouting reports, it stands to reason that they would more directly mirror a player's current condition. More specifically I have noticed with several pitchers that suffer major /long term injuries, their ratings remain the same for a few months, then drop a bit halfway through the injury- then in the month or two before they are set to return, the ratings plummet. (Sometimes injured guys don't seem to with at all. Could be the injury, or the player, or both, I guess!) Sometimes they stay dead, sometimes they bounce back to something resembling their pre-injury self, and sometimes they come all the way back. If this is the case, I feel like the potential rating nosediving alongside the overall rating is somewhat disconcerting? If a major league player's overall and potential suddenly collapse the assumption would be that they are toast. If they're coming back from injury and there is a range of outcomes, shouldn't the potential stay (or reflect their new, post injury ceiling) rather than depict them as shot? I feel like a scout would have the presence of mind to factor an injury into their projection, while a team would consult some doctor reports. Typically prospects progress (or not so much) and their potential comes down to meet their true talent level, with some ups and downs along the way. Sometimes guys spike up, sometimes guys fall off cliffs. I feel like MOST guys that carve out a pro career, like at some point they reach their plateau and maybe their go up or down by 3-8 points here and there, individual ratings move a little bit, at some point they peak and then go downhill at various rates. ANYWAYS. Most of this rambling is to ask, if this is a thing, where hurt players have their ratings bottom out then rebound, has anyone noticed any hints as to whether a player may or may not bounce back? Queues to watch for? Or is this all in my imagination!? __________________ OOOBL (BAL/KCR) 🏆🏆🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩2032-2053 & 2056-present TGS1.0 (WAS)🏆🏆🚩🚩🚩 2021-2035 TGS2.0 (NYY) 🏆🚩🚩 2022-present LTBNL (HOU)🏆🏆🏆🏆🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩 2020-2043 The Dugout (BOS)🏆🚩 2179-2182

07-24-2020, 01:28 PM	#2
Wallad89 Bat Boy Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 11	I've never seen a player fully rebound from a big injury. Some get away with one or two but more injuries mean more future injuries. In my save Walker Buehler tore his flexor tendon in 2020, scouting reports show minor ratings drop, but he recovered and had 4 strong seasons before tearing it again in 2024, and now in 2026 he's borderline useless if he's even healthy. They always seem to be a ticking time bomb, although four 6 war seasons might be worth it(they won the world series in 21 and 22), they are now stuck with a $24million AAA reliever.