1993 Brewers Rebuild - The Second Decade

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In an earlier thread, I started a rebuild of the Brewers beginning in 1993. This was pretty successful - getting the team not only above .500 much faster than actual history (1994 vs 2007), but also winning the first World Series in franchise history.


A quick recap of results to this point:

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As I looked at my team after to 2002 season, a couple of immediate concerns stood out to me:

• Boy did the offense stink. Almost everyone underachieved, but in particular Richie Sexson was disappointing.
• The bullpen is getting long in the tooth. Rivera is 32, Steve Karsay is 30, and two of my favorites Nelson Cruz and Felix Rodriguez are both 29. Seems like time to re-tool.
• We'll need to patch another hole in the rotation. Randy Johnson didn't meet the number of starts needed for this vesting option, and I cannot imagine spending $10 million a year on him at age 39.

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As previously mentioned, I'm planning to let Randy Johnson walk in free agency. A demand of $13,000,000/year at age 39 is just more than we can afford to pay. Have to say I'm sad to see him go -- he won four Cy Youngs as a member of the Brewers and was runner up in another season.



Johnson leaves with his name all over the team record books: 1^st in career wins (136), 1^st in pitchers WAR (66.5), 1^st in starts (307), IP (2108.1) and Ks (2357) K/9 (10.1) and RWAR (64.8). 2^nd in career ERA (3.22). I could go on, but instead, here are some screenshots.

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More pitching records for Randy Johnson.

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Thinking more about the overall composition of the team and our talent pipeline.

• There's a dearth of real star power in the minors. Reading up on dynasty building in the game, it seems like I should be checking in on high-rated players on other teams on the regular to see if they can be pried away from their current teams. I haven't specifically targeted those players in the past, but a good chunk of my team has traditionally been built from minor leaguers from other teams.
• We need to free up space on the 40 man roster. There's a lot of dead wood in there...
• Something I seem to be doing well is pulling in the right International Free Agents. I've been especially lucky with pitchers from Japan.
• Most of my success in the draft has been with players almost ready for the majors. Early on,I was able to grab Hideo Nomo who was fantastic for me (you can see his name in the career pitching leaders above.) My second best selection was probably reliever Nelson Cruz, who has pitched in 248 games out of the bullpen with a career WHIP of just 1.05.
• Overall, we have NOT done a great job of drafting our own talent though. It doesn't help that we lost a bunch of first round picks to get free agent pitchers like Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, but this still can do with some improvement.
  • To help in this department we've been slowly edging up our spending on the draft, and we now spend roughly twice the league baseline.
  • I've also been edging up the amount spent on player development, which is also around twice the baseline.

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I am confused by Dallas McPherson. He's been League MVP at his last two stops in the minors (the last being AA Huntsville in the Southern League), but his rating don't seem to match his production. I


If I were to trade Sexson away, he might be able to take his spot at 1B, but the offensive ratings concern me. Maybe it's time to cash in on him before his 55 potential falls.

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Before getting down to business on trades, we DFA a couple of folks to start freeing up roster spots to be able to keep the prospects we're high on and in case there is someone good in the Rule V draft.

• Dan Serafini (29 year old SP @AAA)
• Alec Zumwalt (22/RP/AA)
• Greg Norton (30/INF/majors)
• Scott Downs (26/RP/AAA)

Downs gets claimed by the Phillies, but the others make it through waivers.


Speaking of Zumwalt, what the heck happened to him between October 2001 and March 2002? He lost almost 10 (!!!) mph off his fastball and his stuff, movement and control all cratered. He was not injured and has not gained much, if anything back since then.

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I really like my scout, but his focus has been slightly skewed towards results. To try and get more players with higher potential into the system, I went into Commissioner mode and changed him to have a focus to favor tools. In theory I should have gone out and hired someone else, but it seems like this is something you could tell your staff to focus on, doesn't it?


Taking a look down the list of top 100 prospects I see a 70 rated Prince Fielder. I loved him as an actual Bewer, so he becomes a target especially since 1B is a real need in the system.


On 10/1/02 the Crew trade pitchers Nando Campana (#55 prospect in baseball) and Javier Ramos to the Pirates for Prince Fielder (#39 prospect).


Campana was promising, but didn't really seem to be progressing. I don't feel bad about giving him up for some real star power.



Betting heavily on the future, two days later we trade RP Mariano Rivera, SS Miguel Tejada and minor leaguers C Juan Ramirez, 2B Jesus Linares and LF Dallas Bates to the A’s for 3B Miguel Cabrera (#15 prospect) and 2B Brian Roberts (#49 prospect).


I do hate to see Tejada leave. He seems primed for a breakout nad has a sparkplug personality. If all works out, Cabrera becomes our 3B in a few years and we have the corners of the infield locked down for a while.

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11/21


To try and clear more room on the 40-man roster and simultaneously rebuild the bullpen, the Brewers trade pitchers Scott Stewart and Jonathan Figueroa to Oakland for relievers Ricardo Flores and Ayres Dordio. Oakland retains 70% of Flores’ contract ($5.8 million)


Stewart was a member of my first draft class. He topped out at AAA, where he never posted an ERA under 5.00. Figueroa was a 2001 draftee with a nice knuckleball, but a Control rating of just 7 on a 100 point scale and little to indicate it will get better. Maybe he figures it out in the Oakland system.


Flores has huge stuff (100/100), and Oakland gave him a huge contract for a reliever yet to pitch in the bigs ($8.3 million). Apparently the AI decided it was time to salary dump. I'm kind of surprised they picked up that much of his contract. He also has a leader personality trait to boot.


Dordio was the A's closer the last two years, and you can see why from his profile.

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11/24

In a swap of minor league pitchers, we send Rhett Parrot to the Mets for Jon Lester (#86).

Parrot was Midwest League (A) Pitcher of the Year and pitched in the Southern League (AA) All-Star game, but he always seemed to be outperforming his ratings to me. Lester just started his career in DE ball last season.

While perusing the minor league prospect lists, I've noticed real-life Brewer Corey Hart has a 60 rating hanging around in the Texas system. Sensing the possibility of creating an offensive juggernaut in a couple of seasons, we turn around and deal Jon Lester to the Rangers, along with Richie Sexson and P Troy Cate for highly rated 3B prospect Corey Hart (#46) and C Jose Garcia.

One of the things I always try to do in a trade is ask for another player or ask for the other team to retain salary. Unlike real life, the other GM doesn't get upset and pull the deal off the table, so it's always worth trying to sweeten the deal, even if you just go back to what you had before. In this case, I got Garcia as a throw-in. Even though he can't hit, having another elite defensive catcher in the system certainly can't hurt.

This trade does create a problem. Who is going to play first base next year? The previously mentioned Dallas McPherson? Someone else from the minors like Robb Quinlan? We'll need to sort this out later, along with the question of who will play shortstop.

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11/29


To close out the month, we ship RP Braden Looper and minor league starter Chris Bootcheck to the Expos for 1B Ryan Howard (#74) and 2B Josh Barfield..


Howard gives us another power bat (should be 80+/100) with a decent hit tool (expected to land in the 60's.) It also creates a logjam at first with Fielder, Cabrera and Hart all able to play first, and Howard and Fielder only able to play first. Since Hart can play the outfield, I set his strategy to play there. Cabrera gets set to play 3B. We'll figure out the rest later.


Looper is someone my scouts say should be able to work high-leverage inning, but his low stuff rating scares me, especially after he put up an ERA of over 7 in limited innings last season in the bigs. I'm more than happy to ship him off.


What to say about Howard, other than mmmmm... dingers.... He had an OPS+ of 145 last year at single A.

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Without additional moves, Ramon Vazquez will be our everyday shortstop. Although he had great range (90) and a good rating at SS (80) he makes a fairly large number of errors (48 Infield Error rating).

We also have 33 year old Damion Easley on the roster but while his Infield Error is 100, his range is just 55, and his Contact rating is just 40. If we're going to sacrifice offense for defense, I'd really rather have elite defense, especially at SS.

With that we start shopping around RP Steve Karsay. He was good for us last year (3.07 FIP) but at age 30 if we're going to really revamp the bullpen, now is the time to trade him, before his stats fall off a cliff. The problem is going to be his 4.2 million dollar salary.

We start shopping him around, retaining 75% of his salary. The Braves seem interested, offering up defensive wizard SS Cesar Izturis, who spent the previous year at AA. While he hit just .242 our scouts think he could hit .270 with his Avoid K's at 80. We start walking back how much of Karsay's salary we retain, and finally arrive at this deal on 12/8:

The Brew Crew trades Steve Karsay (retaining 30%) and 45-rated Single A 2B Issmael Salas to the Braves for SS Cesar Izturis. Izturis becomes the prohibitive front-runner to be the starting SS this year. Just look at those defensive ratings!

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No longer needing Ramon Vazquez, we start shopping him. On 12/8. we swing a deal with Toronto, trading him to the Blue Jays for 1B/RF Arturo Galindo and 2B Jon Corona. If nothing else, Galindo gives us another possible player to bridge the gap at first base while we wait for the corner infielders in the minors to develop. He put up good numbers at AAA, although his BABIP was high at .375.

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The Rule V draft happens on 12/20/02, and we end up losing four players:

• P Sun-Woo Kim (AAA)
• INF Sean Burroughs (AAA)
• C Jason Phillips (AA)
• P Chris Gissell (AAA)

Admittedly, I kind of screwed this up. Burroughs was probably the best internal candidate to take over 1B. I thought I had protected him and did not. Ironically, Toronto took him after trading Galindo to me.

When it comes to Milwaukee's turn to choose, 2B Freddy Sanchez (the #26 rated prospect) is available. We scoop him up as it looks like he could have elite contact (80 potential) and can play a variety of infield positions.

No longer needing another backup infielder, the Brewers spin Damion Easley to the Braves for prospects SS Brian Specht and 2B Francisco Arias. They are just 50 and 45 potential respectively, but getting two players for spare parts works for me and Specht is just 22.

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While all these trades were happeing, we executed some other moves.

• Just before he was named rookie of the year, we locked up Elias Rios to a 6 year/$17 million extension.
• On 1/19 we locked up catcher Alex Velez to a 6 yrs/$8.5 million extension. I'm hoping last season was a fluke offensively. With a 68 contact rating an 84 Avoid K's he can't hit .237 again, can he? He's listed as a leader, so there's another bonus there.

On the free agent side, we lean into our history with Japanese pitchers and sign three of them:

• Wataru Nakanishi (3 yrs/$11 million) he has great stats (97 stuff) and hits 98-100 mph on the radar gun, but has a disruptive personality. This should be interesting.
• 32 year old SP Kenichi Akamatsu (3 yrs/$12 million). Last year is a team option with a $1 mil buyout. Playing with fire a bit but with ratings of 55/92/59 it seems like a fairly cheap roll of the dice, especially since people keep sending me trade offers for Matt Clement.
• Michinobu Kagawa – 25 year old starter who signed an absolutely insane MINOR league deal with a 560,000 salary if he gets promoted within the first 30 days. I see no way he doesn’t make the rotation. A cheap, controllable starter with a leadership personality along with high work ethic and loyalty? How can I say no, especially with ratings of 68/53/45 and potential to reach 77/59/50?

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For whatever reason, I keep getting trade proposals for SP Matt Clement. I really need some elite pitching in the system, so after much toil, this comes to fruition:

Trade major league players SP Matt Clement and RP Kyle Farnsworth, along with minor leaguers SS Enrique Cruz, 3B Dallas McPherson and RF Sergio Castro to the Twins for SP Jesus Cueva (the #8 prospect in baseball).

Clement was slated for the rotation and Farnsworth for the bullpen. Cruz is an elite defensive SS, but just repeated Low A at age 20 because he can't hit.. Castro looks like he might turn out to be something, and McPherson has been discussed earlier. I think he's a mirage.

Cueva, as you can see below, can bring the heat.

Now that our minors seem pretty stocked, time to try and maximize the return. We max out player development at $5,460,000 - the game won't let us set it any higher here in 2003.

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As we get closer to opening day, we try to turn some spare parts into prospects:

• Danny Graves has fallen off a cliff ratings wise. He gets shipped to San Diego for 3B prospect Jorge Ramirez.
• We trade Dan Serafini to the Marlins for RP Paul Bush, who retain 100% of his salary.

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4/14

Brewers are 5-7. 4th in the NL Central, 3 GB of the Cardinals

The bullpen is still a problem. Ugueth Urbina, whose movement score dropped almost 20 points just before opening day has an eye watering ERA of 17.18 and has been scored on in all four of his appearances. At age 30 he may fall off a cliff ability-wise, and while we have Francisco Rodriguez and Roberto Perez available at AAA, I would rather NOT bring them up and start their clock towards arbitration, especially since it seems like our window is 2 or 3 years off.

Shopping Urbina around, we actually get an interesting offer – Carlos Cabral from the A’s. He’s just 24, only costs 1.1 million, and has 78/32/66 ratings, and a reliever of the year trophy from 2000 in his back pocket. I have no idea why the reigning World Series champs want to give me pieces of their bullpen, but we jump all over this and get them to throw in 40-potential 3B prospect Russ Adams. Carbral goes right into the pen, and Adams goes to A+ Beloit.

A few other things happen:

• The Brewers send Danys Baez back to AAA, calling up Felix Rodriguez.
• Jimmy Anderson (SP/A) will miss the year with a torn labrum.
• Jeff Francouer named Midwest League batter of the week, hitting .452 with a HR and 7 RBI.

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4/21

• Following the trade the Crew goes on a tear. We now sit at 11-8, tied for 2nd with the Cubs in the Central, ½ GB of the Cardinals.
• AP Michinobu Kagawa gets suspended for 6 days for fighting with Richard Hidalgo of the Astros.
• Jorge Ramirez named International League POW hitting .593 with 2 dingers.

4/25

• Brian Roberts (AAA Indianapolis) hits safely in 20 games.
• Brewers 13-9, 3rd place, 1 GB of the Cubs.

4/26

• Brewers 14-10, 2nd place in the Central, 1 GB of the Cubs.
• Jorge Ramirez (AAA Indianapolis) hitting streak reaches 20 games.
• Roberts’ streak comes to an end at 23 games.

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5/5

• Brewers are 16-15, 3rd place in the NL Central, 4 GB of the Cubs.
• Jorge Ramirez’s (AAA Indianapolis) hitting streak ends at 27 games.

5/12

• Brewers are 19-18, 2nd place in the Central, 6 GB of the Cubs.
• Ryan Howard wins Southern League POW, hitting .524 with 4 homers.
• CF Javier Herrera wins California League (A) POW, hitting .381 with 9 RBI.

5/22

• Top pitching prospect Jesus Cueva is lost for the year, injuring his rotator cuff. This seem really unfair. My trainer has legendary prevent arms skill and Cueva has a proneness to arm injuries of 4 on a 200 point scale. This makes two years in a row where our top pitching prospect is lost for the year to an injury.
• Miguel Cabrera has a 21 game hitting streak snapped.

5/26

• Brewers are 27-23, 2nd place in the Central, 3 ½ GB of the Cubs.