One Run Games

[joker7702]

In tournaments I have found myself losing many one run games. Are there any factors people have seen that swing one run games, or am I just in an abysmal string of luck?

[Sharkn20]

Signing up!

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[Lemandria]

Relievers. Lack of defensive replacements. Gopher balls, walks, base hits, phase of the moon, Jobu has cursed your bats.

It's usually relievers or your late-inning strategies.

That being said, simple bad luck and cold streaks happen, too.

[Torgonius]

I'll sign up and let your guys hit against Greinke. For 150 tournaments, he was solid. The last 25 he has been getting lit up like weed at Snoop's house.

[joker7702]

Originally Posted by Lemandria

Relievers. Lack of defensive replacements.

I am doing capped tournaments, so my bench is all worse at defense than my starters, and my relief staff leaves a lot to be desired. However, I have in my opinion constructed a solid bullpen (see below), but I am open to constructive criticism.

[DonMattingly]

Originally Posted by joker7702

In tournaments I have found myself losing many one run games. Are there any factors people have seen that swing one run games, or am I just in an abysmal string of luck?

I have seen a lot of close games as well, but I think that is part of the nature of the beast of tournaments. I've only set up a couple of Iron teams so far, so that is my context.

People have many of the same cards which makes things very even. You aren't going to have many blowouts when almost every card is a point or two different in its overall rating.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by joker7702

In tournaments I have found myself losing many one run games. Are there any factors people have seen that swing one run games, or am I just in an abysmal string of luck?

Probably nothing

A one-run loss is a two-run swing from a one-run win

Just like a one-run loss is a two-run swing from a three-run loss.

If you're up one and give up two to lose by one, there's nothing fundamentally different than that than being down one and giving up two to lose by three or being up five and giving up two to win by three.

[joker7702]

I have lost all right to complain after winning a tournament going 5-1 in one run games.

[Coriolanus]

IRL and in OOTP, one-run games tend to be one of the clearest manifestations of luck. And, it seems to take a couple season to even out. So one season, you'll have a great record and one season it will suck. just by nature, teams tend to play 50-50 in close games.

On an unrelated note, I've often pondered what it would be like to give game's a "RNG" number related to the unlikelihood of the outcome. This would give you a relative unluckiness rating based on your probability of winning given your players, how far outside his typical performance level your pitcher fell and how often your guys failed to get a hit when making contact.

I've had tourneys where I had 6 starters have BABIP below .200. I few days later they're the top hitting team in the tourney. Which is the greater outlier? I'd love to have some kind of indication... it's the one thing that's easier about the distribution of talent.... When his Maddux shuts you out and yours exits after two innings, I'm pretty confident my team drew the unluckier numbers....

[One Great Matrix]

Originally Posted by joker7702

In tournaments I have found myself losing many one run games. Are there any factors people have seen that swing one run games, or am I just in an abysmal string of luck?

There are little things...

Did you reliever out there too long? Too short? Funny the balanced setting is almost well it almost sometimes seems fitting. But you might want to adjust your global settings...

Good pitching can win you a lot of 3-2 games.

Yes, luck plays a part for example: 48-12 in one-run games one season. Something like 26-40 another season. Same team.