Relievers turning into starters

[Rain King]

Why wasn't this guy ever used as a starter in the minors? That is the real question here. Was he user or AI controlled? A 3 stamina is good enough for me at the lower levels if he has 3 good pitches.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by Rain King

Why wasn't this guy ever used as a starter in the minors? That is the real question here. Was he user or AI controlled? A 3 stamina is good enough for me at the lower levels if he has 3 good pitches.

That was the AI's decision.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Rain King

Why wasn't this guy ever used as a starter in the minors? That is the real question here. Was he user or AI controlled? A 3 stamina is good enough for me at the lower levels if he has 3 good pitches.

If he was AI controlled, that probably goes back to how the AI treats stamina. It probably saw that 3 rating and stuck him at reliever automatically without factoring in any other ratings. That's just my speculation, though.

[Rain King]

Yea, IMO I think the threshold is still too low for "reliever only"...there should be almost no pitchers who fit that description (and it should usually be injury caused) by stamina alone. Their repertoire is way more important and starters at the lower levels typically are only going 60-75 pitches at most anyway.

[daves]

Originally Posted by thriller13

He has 3 good pitches and with the rest of his ratings, he should be a high quality starter. I have had this happen once with my closer. One day I noticed that he had 3 pitches so I moved him to the rotation. It was a successful move, I think he won 19 games a couple of times IIRC.

How long does it take for his stamina to improve?

[Cryomaniac]

Originally Posted by Rain King

Yea, IMO I think the threshold is still too low for "reliever only"...there should be almost no pitchers who fit that description (and it should usually be injury caused) by stamina alone. Their repertoire is way more important and starters at the lower levels typically are only going 60-75 pitches at most anyway.

Pitchers with 2 high quality pitches and high stamina typically get labelled as "bullpen / emergency SP", dont they?

[Drstrangelove]

In the NL last year, 60% of the pitchers never started a game.

In the Midwest League (A level) last year, 57% of the pitchers never started more than 1 game.


For whatever reason --- whether stamina, number of quality pitches, manager's decisions, etc., most pitchers at every level do not start games. By definition, most pitchers are relievers.

The game is merely simulating reality. On a rare occasion, a pitcher might change from the bullpen to being a successful starter, but it's rare. The game is saying that in reality, a person can't simply say "Hey, I'm going to be a starter and be good at it because I can throw 3 pitches."

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by Drstrangelove

In the NL last year, 60% of the pitchers never started a game.

In the Midwest League (A level) last year, 57% of the pitchers never started more than 1 game.


For whatever reason --- whether stamina, number of quality pitches, manager's decisions, etc., most pitchers at every level do not start games. By definition, most pitchers are relievers.

The game is merely simulating reality. On a rare occasion, a pitcher might change from the bullpen to being a successful starter, but it's rare. The game is saying that in reality, a person can't simply say "Hey, I'm going to be a starter and be good at it because I can throw 3 pitches."

Most major league pitchers started games in the minors. Most of them were starters for 80%+ of their minor league career. Pitchers are used as starters until they aren't good enough...at that point they move to the bullpen. It isn't a stamina issue. If a guy is good enough to be a relief pitcher in the majors...he was good enough to be a starting pitcher at the levels below that. That is the trend that OOTP needs to be replicating. It does a pretty good job for the most part, but I think it could be improved.

[mmarra82]

How about Smoltz...starter, closer back to starter.

[Rain King]

Yea, when guys who are good enough to start get used as relievers...it is typically injury reasons.

[sc_superstar]

Its very simple few reasons why this doesnt happen IRL, but can happen in OOTP

1) IRL a guy needs to be stretched out before he can be an effective starting pitcher at any level. The closest OOTP can simulate this is how SP's and RP's react differently to days of rest (a reliever can throw 20 pitches and be good for the next day, change that guy to a SP and he cant go again)

2) IRL Since teams want SP's more than anything else, every young pitcher with a remotely decent skill set will start in the minors, minor league relievers are typically journeymen and guys who scouts dont see much in. OOTP bases this on stamina and # of average to plus pitches, IRL guys can make adjustment to secondary pitches to make them plus pitches and minor league coaches are there to try and get top prospects to do that. IRL that 80/80 RP with a good fastball/curve and a terrible changeup is going to be throwing lots of changeups in the minors to try and make that pitch major league caliber.

3) OOTP is just a giant number machine that exports baseball stats, if it sees a guy that without a talent bump cant be a ML starter in some areas, it wont make him an MiL starter because it treats all levels the same tryng to win every game, whereas an MLB club will make its A ball affiliate run its top prospect out there even if he is getting shelled trying to fine tune a 3rd/4th pitch

[Drstrangelove]

Originally Posted by Rain King

Most major league pitchers started games in the minors. Most of them were starters for 80%+ of their minor league career.

I took 4 random MLB teams (Dodgers, Reds, Royals, Yankees) and examined the minor league careers of every pitcher. (110 pitchers and 1 non pitcher.)

I guess everyone means something different by the word "most." But if you meant that 65% or 70% of MLB pitchers were starters 80%+ of their minor league careers then it's very false. If you mean 50% +1 of MLB starters, then it's still false.

The correct answer is 44%. Interestingly, Scott Feldman and Luis Catillo, both on Cincy, spent 75% of their pre-MLB careers as relievers and became successful starters. Oops.

Originally Posted by Rain King

Pitchers are used as starters until they aren't good enough...at that point they move to the bullpen.

In point of fact, 22% of MLB pitchers spent over 85% of their pre-MLB careers as..... relievers. Meaning that a large amount of pitchers in the MLB were identified early on as being only relievers. Apparently people knew it right away. 15% of MLB pitchers never started more than 5 games in their minor league career. They weren't "used as starters until they weren't good enough...at that point they were moved to the bullpen." They started in the bullpen and never came out.

Originally Posted by Rain King

It isn't a stamina issue. If a guy is good enough to be a relief pitcher in the majors...he was good enough to be a starting pitcher at the levels below that.

As was pointed out above, this is false. Enormous numbers of pitchers in MLB were never starters at any minor league level. Many more were not starters at AAA. Some pitchers can't be starters. Ever. OOTP replicates what happens.

In short, the idea that most MLB pitchers began as starters and gradually got weeded out into the bull pen is a myth. Managers, scouts, GMs can tell early on, often before a single start that a pitcher belongs in the bullpen. This happens long before MLB, and for many, long before AAA. For some, it's known day 1. This doesn't mean they are not skilled or quality pitchers. We know that because they end up in MLB pitching all the time. They simply are identified early on as not starters.

Sometimes, they're wrong, and years later, that pitcher becomes a successful starter. The latter is rare. The former is common. OOTP, imo, mimics this.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Drstrangelove

In point of fact, 22% of MLB pitchers spent over 85% of their pre-MLB careers as..... relievers. Meaning that a large amount of pitchers in the MLB were identified early on as being only relievers. Apparently people knew it right away. 15% of MLB pitchers never started more than 5 games in their minor league career. They weren't "used as starters until they weren't good enough...at that point they were moved to the bullpen." They started in the bullpen and never came out.

As was pointed out above, this is false. Enormous numbers of pitchers in MLB were never starters at any minor league level. Many more were not starters at AAA. Some pitchers can't be starters. Ever. OOTP replicates what happens.

22% is neither a large amount or enormous. Your points are valid, but they don't refute the general opinion in this thread that most pitchers who reach the majors were starters until it was proven they would never be starters in the majors or at least organizations believed that. Nobody's saying EVERY pitcher was a starter. Just that most of them were, which your statistics support.

ETA: You're also passing off the numbers you culled from four teams over one season as representative of all of MLB. In actuality, those numbers could be much higher or lower when considering all teams over a longer period of time.

[NoOne]

only in 2017 do facts not refute opinion, lol.

(not just 2017, but it seems to be a "2-step" backward time period, right now, as opposed to a step or 2 forward.)

you can take your #'s and marry them... i feel like they aren't relievers in the minors often, so they aren't.

it does happen. it will happen. it happens all the time... and, for similar reasons as you would see it in real life, as best as you can expect for something so complicated to model.

people gain and lose pitches all the time, too (game and real life)... just one more reason it can occur.

[diesel230]

I have seen the A.I in my league change several relievers to starters and usually have excellent results. Off the top of my head, usually left handed pitchers. The Cubs turned Justin Wilson and Kevin Siegrist both into excellent starters.

Im more concerned with the A.i turning stud starters into relievers. In my league, Boston on way to a pennant in September turned their ace Matt Barnes into a long reliever. 16-4 3.35 31 more innings then hits. Suddenly sent to pen. Recently signed a 77 mill contract after a 17-7 Cy Young type season. Only 29 years old

[drowssap]

Here is your answer: Dustin Hermanson. 153 appearances between the majors and minors with zero starts, then made 28 starts in 1997.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...ermadu01.shtml