Stat Modifiers

[pfholden]

I read a couple old posts about stat modifiers but came away with a question I didn't see answered. I've never adjusted these modifiers in the middle of a sim, only before the first season. Is there any reason to not adjust the modifiers a few years into a sim? I started present day and am in 2023. The amount of offense is a bit more than I'd like so thinking of adjusting to 2017 or something along those lines. Before doing so, just wondering if there's any reason to advise against doing this multiple seasons in. Thanks!

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by pfholden

I read a couple old posts about stat modifiers but came away with a question I didn't see answered. I've never adjusted these modifiers in the middle of a sim, only before the first season. Is there any reason to not adjust the modifiers a few years into a sim? I started present day and am in 2023. The amount of offense is a bit more than I'd like so thinking of adjusting to 2017 or something along those lines. Before doing so, just wondering if there's any reason to advise against doing this multiple seasons in. Thanks!

What you're seeing is why people do this. When one plays a fictional game, or one plays historical or standard, and goes past 2020 (2019 in the case of historical, since that's where the numbers end), the game will start to lean further and further towards offense over time. I've never understood why this is, but it is, and the only way (IMHO) to correct this is to select the historical season from 1871 through 2019 that matches up with the level of offense that you want to see in your game. It's incredibly good at normalizing offense to your preference, so that's why those of us that use it, use it.

Offensive averages for all seasons here:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l.../MLB/bat.shtml

Pitching averages (including BABIP, which should be reduced to what it actually was, as the game inflates it by 2 or 3 points) for all seasons here:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...LB/pitch.shtml

Fielding Averages for all seasons here:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...LB/field.shtml

I can dig up a post or two that explain the way to use and setup this method if you want me to. My preference is 1984 (sounds like yours might be 2017), and I make the adjustment every season on the day before Opening Day. Some folks do it on Opening Day before playing any games, but it cannot be done once the first games are played. Another benefit of using this method is that it allows me to compare players across seasons because they're basically playing in the same batting, pitching, and fielding environments. Please feel free to ask any questions you may have.

[actionjackson]

Also, I would imagine it's fine to do this multiple seasons into your game. It may not get pulled all the way back in the first season, but by the second or third season, it should be there.

[pfholden]

Thanks so much for the detailed response.



When you adjust to 1984, I'm assuming you just select that year from the drop down menu on the modifiers screen and you're good to go moving forward?


Yeah, 2017 is what I was thinking, but as I dig around more on BR and Fangraphs, I may even go 2015 or 2016. I like home runs but don't need 20+ guys topping 40 every season

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by pfholden

Thanks so much for the detailed response.

When you adjust to 1984, I'm assuming you just select that year from the drop down menu on the modifiers screen and you're good to go moving forward?

Yeah, 2017 is what I was thinking, but as I dig around more on BR and Fangraphs, I may even go 2015 or 2016. I like home runs but don't need 20+ guys topping 40 every season

Yep. Day before Opening Day or day of before any games are played, select the year you want to use from the drop down menu, under the "League Totals" heading, and beside "Totals from year:", and the game will go to work, producing modifiers to help it hit the desired league wide totals.

I strongly advise against using the auto-calc feature, as I've only gotten weird results with it, and this method is so effortless, and nails the numbers from the season you want. I also suggest re-setting the BABIP to what it actually was (2015: .299, 2016: .300, 2017: .300, for me 1984: .286, or find the year you want to use on the Pitching Averages page I linked to above).

I do this the day before every season, but you can let it go for a while. Just realize that your game will start to drift back towards offense as you move through the seasons, so you may need to adjust it again, and then again etc. Picture here:

[pfholden]

Ah, so you re-select 1984 (or whatever year) and update the BABIP before the start of each season? Thanks for clarification, I would have set it once and left it...
When you mention auto-calc, you're saying to uncheck the middle check box that says "automatically adjust league total modifiers for accuracy", right?

Poor Giancarlo Stanton is gonna be bummed when I adjust the modifiers and he isn't hitting 60+ dingers every season...
Thanks again for all the help and clarifications!

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by pfholden

Ah, so you re-select 1984 (or whatever year) and update the BABIP before the start of each season? Thanks for clarification, I would have set it once and left it...
When you mention auto-calc, you're saying to uncheck the middle check box that says "automatically adjust league total modifiers for accuracy", right?

Poor Giancarlo Stanton is gonna be bummed when I adjust the modifiers and he isn't hitting 60+ dingers every season...
Thanks again for all the help and clarifications!

Nope on the auto-calc thing. More on adjusting LTMs later in this post. Regarding the selecting of the year before each season, I'll give you an example. Let's say I'm playing in 1901, but I want that 1984 stats output. The day before OD, I select 1984, reset BABIP, and a couple of other things as you'll see below. When 1902 rolls around, if I don't do this again, it'll revert back to 1902 level offense, which I don't want, so I have to do it every year.

From the start of Preseason (around the first week of March), a button labelled "Auto-Calc Modifiers" will appear. It will be available either until the day before Opening Day or possibly Opening Day before games are played. I've only had bizarre results when using it, so I would avoid it. It's been nowhere near as good as simply selecting the year, and making a couple of adjustments once the game spits out its modifiers. You can see it in image #1 (taken on the first day of the Preseason) beneath "Modifiers" on the "League Totals" side of the Stats & AI page below.

I'm going to move ahead to the day before Opening Day when I would normally do this stuff, and post more pics to show you what happens when you use this method. Aside from the BABIP, I believe the Hook Settings for Starters and Relievers (under General Strategic Tendencies on the left side of the Stats & AI page) change when you select the year you want to use, so you'll need to reset them to what you want, or go with what it gives you. I use Default for both, but that doesn't mean you have to. I think bunting frequency changes too, but we'll see once I've simmed ahead, and posted a pic (image #2) of what it looks like right after I've selected 1984, and another pic (image #3) of the changes I make before proceeding with the season.

EDIT: Bunting frequency does not change when I select the year (image #2). In the OOTPXX game I'm playing right now (these images I've shown you are from 19), I've dialed the bunting frequency back to Rarely because I hate bunting with a passion, but in this game it's at Normal (I think it was originally at Often, but I just couldn't help myself). You'll note the BABIP at .289, and the Hook Settings not at default. The third image will correct that, and anything else I see that's out of place. Nothing else out of place, so BABIP and Hook Settings corrected in image #3.

The fourth image will show you the second auto-adjust LTMs for accuracy box. As you surmised, the two boxes should be unchecked to use this method. You can see the first one in the first image between "BABIP" and "Starting Pitcher Stamina" on the League Totals side of the Stats & AI page. There are three boxes there, and all of them are unchecked. I also set the strategy settings to 1984, and uncheck the auto-adjust league strategy when advancing to the next season box. You can see that unchecked box over on the League Strategy Settings side of the page, under "Import Settings" in the first image. EDIT: As you can see, the second auto-adjust LTMs for accuracy box (also unchecked of course) is on the "Historical" page on the right side, right at the top, under "Statistical Accuracy". Your guess is as good as mine as to why there are two, but there it is. EDIT #2: I'd forgotten that there's also a second auto-adjust league strategy when advancing to the next season check box. As you can see in image #4, it's over on the left hand side of the Historical Settings page under Historical Progressing Settings, just below the "Base player roles/positions on" setting. You only need to be concerned about this if you're trying to keep those settings to a specific year, like I do by keeping them in line with my LTMs.

I'll then sim the whole 1908 season, and see what kind of league totals output I get, and how it compares to 1984, but that should probably be in another post.

[pfholden]

Amazing detail here. Thank you!

[actionjackson]

League stats averages/ratios for the 1908 season using this method:

RL 1984: .260/.323/.385/.708, 4.26 R/G, 0.043 2B/AB, 0.007 3B/AB, 0.023 HR/AB, 0.083 BB/PA, 0.156 K/AB, 66.74 SB%, .699 DEF, .978 FLD%, .286 BABIP, 3.81 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 8.92 H/9, 0.78 HR/9, 3.18 BB/9, 5.37 K/9, 1.69 K/BB

OOTP19 1908 sim using 1984: .258/.323/.380/.702, 4.19 R/G, 0.043 2B/AB, 0.007 3B/AB, 0.022 HR/AB, 0.085 BB/PA, 0.150 K/AB, 64.50 SB%, .699 DEF, .979 FLD%, .283 BABIP, 3.75 ERA, 1.349 WHIP, 8.89 H/9, 0.74 HR/9, 3.25 BB/9, 5.16 K/9, 1.59 K/BB

Your guess is as good as mine as to why OOTP uses BB per PA, and everything else is per AB, but that right there is a pretty fine result. Individual batting and pitching stats from the just simmed 1908 season to follow. I don't know why this system for getting the league wide numbers that you want works. I only know that it does work.

Batting stats sorted by Batting Runs, which is a counting stat that measures how far above the average hitter a hitter was. Pitching stats sorted by rWAR, which looks at a pitcher's value from the point of view of runs allowed by the pitcher, rather than his peripheral stats, which is what fWAR (or in OOTP simply WAR) does.

The only thing that disappointed me about this run through was that there's waaay too many innings being thrown by the starters, which pushes all their counting stats up. It's because the Starting Rotation Mode was set to "Start Highest-Rested". This is a random debut with 19th century starting pitchers mixed in with all other eras of starting pitchers, including today's "5-and-dive" starters. After some testing, I've determined that "Strict Rotation" is the way to go to keep these 19th century beasts in line. I do not want to lose them, as I couldn't stand the thought of not including all eras, but I also don't want pitchers pitching 350 innings with 400 K. Strict Rotation appeared to be the way to put them in line with starting pitcher innings in 1984, which is what I wanted.