Perfect Game is Very Far from Perfect

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by HRBaker

Here's the top 3 "most wins" in each level so far this year...

what does this even prove? whales have to start somewhere...of course they won a bunch of games rising up through the lower levels. But those records were probably set several weeks ago. By now they should mostly be congregating in diamond...that's the whole point of promotion/relegation system.

[DonMattingly]

Originally Posted by Marleigh

As I stated before I won Cupid Childs 100 for winning the Saturday Iron Warriors with a team that can be bought for 5-6k, he sells for north of 300k. you don't have to get lucky with packs, I don't think you realize how much PP you can make from tournaments



this is my f2p team, guess i'm just lucky (rather than having and executing a teambuilding strategy

My experience with tournaments soured me on then in 20. F2P teams had no reason to keep a collection of cards around (you need to sell to upgrade) and so if you managed to get yourself to Perfect you wouldn't have any cards lying around for tournaments, other than Diamonds. And the Diamond tourneys were whale dominated as they could field all 99s.

There were also no 300k rewards for Iron level tourneys. Maybe I'll take a look at them, but it's kind of a pain to have to manage multiple rosters and lineups. And it still seems rare that you'd win such a card to me.

And yes, if you're winning 120+ every single week from week #1 as a F2P team, you absolutely needed a ton of luck. All the skill in the world alone won't be enough. And a good sized whale team with no skill can still smoke you easily.

[HRBaker]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

what does this even prove? whales have to start somewhere...of course they won a bunch of games rising up through the lower levels. But those records were probably set several weeks ago. By now they should mostly be congregating in diamond...that's the whole point of promotion/relegation system.

Did you read my post earlier. My point was/is that the current process does not create an even playing field.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by HRBaker

Did you read my post earlier. My point was/is that the current process does not create an even playing field.

I did, and agree with some of your points like how time is a substitute for money. But the issue of the lower leagues being filled with whales, that part I just don't agree with. If you want to see what "full of whales" really looks like, head up to diamond.

[HRBaker]

I just looked at the results from last season and the numbers are basically the same. The top 3 teams in Rookie, for example, won 147-149 games. In Stone, 145-150 games, and in Iron, 138-146 games... all well above an .800 winning percentage.


All I'm trying to say is when you have Whales in the lower levels, which represents well over 50% of OOTP's PT players, most of these teams are going to be abandoned well before the next version comes out.


That said, maybe the money they make from the top 10% is enough to make it a successful venture, but over time the number of people playing PT (in my opinion) will ultimately go down. It becomes like playing Chess when you only get to play the World Champions

[chazzycat]

that's 3 teams, across how many rookie leagues? dozens at least. You seem to be saying there is this constant influx of new whale teams...I'm just not buying it

[QuantaCondor]

Originally Posted by HRBaker

I just looked at the results from last season and the numbers are basically the same. The top 3 teams in Rookie, for example, won 147-149 games. In Stone, 145-150 games, and in Iron, 138-146 games... all well above an .800 winning percentage.


All I'm trying to say is when you have Whales in the lower levels, which represents well over 50% of OOTP's PT players, most of these teams are going to be abandoned well before the next version comes out.


That said, maybe the money they make from the top 10% is enough to make it a successful venture, but over time the number of people playing PT (in my opinion) will ultimately go down. It becomes like playing Chess when you only get to play the World Champions

I'm not claiming there are zero whales in the entirety of Rookie, Stone, Iron. I'm claiming that the typical league has virtually no whale presence because of the sheer number of leagues, the relatively low rate at which whales create new teams at low levels, and the virtually guaranteed promotion rate for all these strong teams. You'd need a truly massive amount of PP being injected into the economy for even an average of one whale per league at those low levels. Citing the top win totals of a given level doesn't really say anything about the typical quality of competition or even the typical best team that someone would face in a given league.

Here's a concrete example: Come up with a 'whale' team. Something you think is going to exist typically at these levels. Think of some characteristic players this team would have. Now think of how many whale teams there would need to be in order to really make it so whales at a low level are a problem.

Okay, so with that in mind, think about the promotion rates. Under that assumption, how many whales are at higher levels? Remember, the worst diamond team is probably at minimum composed of the SE squad, so there are many teams in diamond to add to your total # of whales number on top of what you think exists in all other levels.

Okay, so now we have a number of whales we think exists in the universe. How many cards does that number of whale teams need to support every whale having a card of that quality? If this number is too high, your estimate of the number of whales is off, since the economy can't support it (not enough supply). Another way you could gauge that is by predicting how many new whales enter the league each week at a low level. For a whale to be born, they need to buy cards on the AH for their team, and they need to be strong cards; stronger than the SEs. So, figure out how many copies of these elite cards need to be bought by these whales during a given week. Then, check the AH. Is that number realistic? How many cards of that type get sold in a given day? How many are available at a given time? If you don't want to follow the AH all day, you can check how long a typical whale card, posted at L7, stays up on the AH before being bought. Keep in mind higher tier whales are participating too, so you'll need more cards than you initially guessed would have to be sold to account for that.

This is what I mean by doing something quantitative. If you looked at these things and found that whale staples have massive volume that's constantly getting turned over on the AH, and that the amount was enough to support both the whales at the higher levels and all these new whales being created each week such that it's a problem in a typical lower level league, then I'd be more inclined to agree with you. As it stands, checking the top 3 wins records of a league doesn't really tell you anything about a typical week for a player at a given level. For all we know there are just 3 good teams in that level with a massive dropoff after it; there is not really usable information there.

I do, at least, respect the attempt to come up with something quantitative even if it doesn't really prove much. That's a conversation I can engage with in a meaningful way.

[OMGPuppies]

If there are so many whales as you say then why is the AH as barren as it is? A lot of whales would mean a ton of useful cards on the AH available to trickle down to all the non-whales because whales would constantly be busting packs and getting rid of what they can't use in order to buy more packs.

[bailey]

Originally Posted by OMGPuppies

If there are so many whales as you say then why is the AH as barren as it is? A lot of whales would mean a ton of useful cards on the AH available to trickle down to all the non-whales because whales would constantly be busting packs and getting rid of what they can't use in order to buy more packs.

Why would whales buy packs? That seems so sub-optimal. True whales just buy the cards they need? SE Jackie Robinson, (cha ching), Tris Speaker (cha ching) etc.. The AH is barren because the non-whale pack buyers disappeared and moved on to other games (or they moved up and can't earn much PP any more). Hopefully the game on sale means a new crop of pack buyers.

[Tinkerman]

Originally Posted by bailey

That seems so sub-optimal.

Ha ha, too right. I've opened 1500+ packs and pulled 1 card that any true whale would be interested in, 99 Clemente. Even with unlimited money, I'm sure I'd end up buying cards in the AH just to preserve my sanity

Incidentally, I dislike the term 'whale'. It seems that people take 2 different meanings from it, which kind of creates confusion in itself

[yno88]

I'd pay to not have to play with the wallet warriors. Maybe $5 for 10 seasons, buying PP would be disabled. At least everyone would start on even ground. It's no fun getting just mauled.

[ignats75]

what is a Whale? I've been mired in Silver for two seasons now with an entire team of Diamonds except for a Gold 2B and 1 Gold SP (who I chose OVER a Diamond), When I was in bronze with that team was I a whale?

Whales aren't the problem. Syd is right. Tankers are the problem.

[bwiese3908]

Helllllo??

[Spieler]

So let's see:

1. Teams spending real money ("blue whales")
2. Teams cornering the market on silver cards.
2a. Specifically from "certain teams"
2b. Cabals and conspiracies
2c. Teams making their PP playing the market ("killer whales")
3. Lower ranks "full of whales" (only blue whales with big $$$ of course)
4. Tankers
5. Teams playing SPs in the bullpen
6. Teams training players at other positions as they historically played (Bagwell at SS, genius. Why didn't I think of that)
7. Overpriced cards in general on the AH
8. My favorite diamond player sucks (after 50 PA/10 IP...)
9. The promotion pyramid does or doesn't work
10. I ripped 500+ packs and never got a perfect
10a. or I got one, a live, and he sucks
10b. or I get multiples of the same one (who is live, and sucks)

Did I miss anything?

[halfbutt]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I did, and agree with some of your points like how time is a substitute for money. But the issue of the lower leagues being filled with whales, that part I just don't agree with. If you want to see what "full of whales" really looks like, head up to diamond.

To me, the issue is not so much the lower leagues being full of whales, but the promotion of average teams alongside them as fodder.

In my team's case, I have had a season with a .500 or better record three times out of nine seasons. I think my cumulative record is in the neighbourhood of 55 games below .500. Nevertheless, I am in gold in last place seven games under, earning very little pp to continue with collections, and am still not in a "to be relegated" position.

Now, don't get me wrong, that is all fine with me, but what was foretold by those I asked on here early on about competing with whales is not really what has happened. It was suggested that eventually those whales would filter on up and I would be left to compete with teams more at my level.

I suppose that still may happen, but I think the point I am making is for every whale to rise to the top, there needs to be weaker teams in the league for them to beat. Honestly, I am not surprised to learn that some teams "tank" in order to get relegated.

This is not meant as a complaint but just to offer another point of view.

[ignats75]

Originally Posted by bwiese3908

Helllllo??

Not some people. They play to win PPs

[ignats75]

Originally Posted by Spieler

So let's see:

1. Teams spending real money ("blue whales")
2. Teams cornering the market on silver cards.
2a. Specifically from "certain teams"
2b. Cabals and conspiracies
2c. Teams making their PP playing the market ("killer whales")
3. Lower ranks "full of whales" (only blue whales with big $$$ of course)
4. Tankers
5. Teams playing SPs in the bullpen
6. Teams training players at other positions as they historically played (Bagwell at SS, genius. Why didn't I think of that)
7. Overpriced cards in general on the AH
8. My favorite diamond player sucks (after 50 PA/10 IP...)
9. The promotion pyramid does or doesn't work
10. I ripped 500+ packs and never got a perfect
10a. or I got one, a live, and he sucks
10b. or I get multiples of the same one (who is live, and sucks)

Did I miss anything?

11. I suck at PT.
11a. The game engine cheats.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by yno88

I'd pay to not have to play with the wallet warriors. Maybe $5 for 10 seasons, buying PP would be disabled. At least everyone would start on even ground. It's no fun getting just mauled.

Unless you are spending literally $5000+ which is a very very small number of teams then the most important thing in the game is experience and a long-term strategy.

People crying about whales would get absolutely crushed in one of the dedicated F2P leagues.

[bailey]

Originally Posted by yno88

I'd pay to not have to play with the wallet warriors. Maybe $5 for 10 seasons, buying PP would be disabled. At least everyone would start on even ground. It's no fun getting just mauled.

You would still get crushed and then what would your excuse be? More than a few free players have teams worth over 1 million points by now.

[bailey]

Originally Posted by Spieler

So let's see:

1. Teams spending real money ("blue whales")
2. Teams cornering the market on silver cards.
2a. Specifically from "certain teams"
2b. Cabals and conspiracies
2c. Teams making their PP playing the market ("killer whales")
3. Lower ranks "full of whales" (only blue whales with big $$$ of course)
4. Tankers
5. Teams playing SPs in the bullpen
6. Teams training players at other positions as they historically played (Bagwell at SS, genius. Why didn't I think of that)
7. Overpriced cards in general on the AH
8. My favorite diamond player sucks (after 50 PA/10 IP...)
9. The promotion pyramid does or doesn't work
10. I ripped 500+ packs and never got a perfect
10a. or I got one, a live, and he sucks
10b. or I get multiples of the same one (who is live, and sucks)

Did I miss anything?

Originally Posted by ignats75

11. I suck at PT.
11a. The game engine cheats.

This would be fun to keep going.

12. soured on tournaments
13. some people are insanely lucky