Let's talk IBB

too_on_too_out · 05-17-2020, 06:20 AM

Scenario: fictional leagues, I am mixing actual players with fictional via the minor league import tool. Which led to Dan Brouthers playing in a league that has a 6 reputation. Results: he now owns the record books for life for that league. Example, he hit 101 HR in a league where the nearest fictional player hit 33.

IBB: you would think in this scenario Brouthers would be walked a lot. Now, he does lead the league in total walks. But where the league leader has 22 IBB, Brouthers has 9.

Yes, he is 3rd in the lineup and the guy that made the most starts in cleanup was hitting over .400 (OBP .528), with a modest HR total (15).

Question: does Brouthers' IBB seem in the realm of reasonable? I think it's too low. Perhaps way too low.

Brouthers ave is .534 and OBP .631. PLUS the 100+ HR. Don't you just walk him?

slugga27 · 05-17-2020, 10:36 AM

Nope. Especially if we're talking no one on and two outs (think: first inning, if he's hitting third), why would I want to face a .400 hitter with a man on?

I remember Game 5 the '99 ALDS Red Sox-Indians...the Indians intentionally walked Nomar Garciaparra twice in the same game...Troy O'Leary followed with a three-run homer and a grand slam.

CBeisbol · 05-17-2020, 11:00 AM

Who hits after the league IBB leader?

What are the handednesses of your two hitters

When you talk about 101, 33 and 15 home runs is that per season? Career? What?

too_on_too_out · 05-18-2020, 12:02 PM

@slugga27 - bearing in mind the context of the discussion - OOTP. You are implying that OOTPD has achieved such programming granularity for IBB that its for loops and if statements are now pondering such philosophically esoteric realms.

@CBeisbol - those numbers are seasonal. Cleanup hitting +.400 only started 60 games (out of 144).

To me it's a no brainer that a guy with better than a coin flip chance of getting on PLUS a 70% chance of hitting a HR today gets a free pass FAR MORE OFTEN than anyone else in likely the history of baseball. Not place 9th in a 8 team league.

TomVeal · 05-18-2020, 12:19 PM

Can you tell us something about the leader in IBB's? How good a hitter is he, and who bats after him?

Bluenoser · 05-18-2020, 02:25 PM

Mickey Mantle had very few IBB's during his peak years, or any years for that matter.

If Mickey Mantle had played in a "6" level league, he would have hit 100 HR's also, but before that happened, he would have been signed by a Major League team.

The scenario you're describing is not realistic, so I'm not really sure how you expect the OOTP engine to react?

too_on_too_out · 05-18-2020, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

The scenario you're describing is not realistic, so I'm not really sure how you expect the OOTP engine to react?

A point in response --

It is realistic. An example of not realistic would be the same future HOF-er joining a level 6 league and hitting .230.

I expect it to react consistently with how it reacts to the task in producing other data. It has a HOF-calibre player in a level 6 league, and so produces data consistent with that scenario (eg 102HR (actually, this year he's slated for 124 HR)). If he is capable of generating 100+HR then he should also be generating other stats that align with the same scenario, getting IBB an equally ridiculous (but reasonable, given his production) number of times.

Did some of you swear a blood oath? A guy with a +.600 OBP plus 6 times more HR than 2nd highest HR hitter, draws a mere 9 IBB and y'all are -- ...meh, what's the big deal.

And, he had 221 RBI, around double the next guy. So he wasn't swinging away with the bases empty. The guy hitting after him had 15 HR all year. But you'd still let "Babe-Who?" Brouthers swing away with a guy on. But, if you saw that happen and he knocked it out for another 2-run HR you'd be the first to say "Why didn't they walk him?"

too_on_too_out · 05-18-2020, 07:27 PM

And, he is not listed in the league's player rankings list.... Def something broken.

Bluenoser · 05-19-2020, 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by too_on_too_out

A point in response --

It is realistic. An example of not realistic would be the same future HOF-er joining a level 6 league and hitting .230.

I expect it to react consistently with how it reacts to the task in producing other data. It has a HOF-calibre player in a level 6 league, and so produces data consistent with that scenario (eg 102HR (actually, this year he's slated for 124 HR)). If he is capable of generating 100+HR then he should also be generating other stats that align with the same scenario, getting IBB an equally ridiculous (but reasonable, given his production) number of times.

Did some of you swear a blood oath? A guy with a +.600 OBP plus 6 times more HR than 2nd highest HR hitter, draws a mere 9 IBB and y'all are -- ...meh, what's the big deal.

And, he had 221 RBI, around double the next guy. So he wasn't swinging away with the bases empty. The guy hitting after him had 15 HR all year. But you'd still let "Babe-Who?" Brouthers swing away with a guy on. But, if you saw that happen and he knocked it out for another 2-run HR you'd be the first to say "Why didn't they walk him?"

.......

TomVeal · 05-19-2020, 12:46 PM

Faced with this scenario in real life, human managers would doubtless walk Brothers every time, thereby reducing his wOBA to a "mere" .690 from whatever astronomical level it reaches in the equivalent of A Ball. You've demonstrated that OOTP's AI logic isn't designed to consider circumstances like this -- a rational programming decision, since batters shouldn't wind up that badly mismatched to the competition. If they do, the settings chosen by the player are unrealistic. (I take it that Brothers has somehow wound up in a mediocre league that neither sells nor posts players and that he has agreed to a several year contract at, presumably, a tiny fraction of the salary that he could earn in MLB.)

What the AI does (I have no inside information, but it seems pretty obvious) is look first at the situation: first base empty? Runners on second, third or both? Fewer than two outs? A close score? A dangerous man at bat? If those conditions don't exist, it won't even consider an IBB. In your game, Dan Brothers always meets the last condition, but how often the others may exist isn't predictable.

In any event, how well a simulation mechanic performs in extreme and unrealistic cases tells us little about its ability to reflect reality with reasonable accuracy.

too_on_too_out · 05-19-2020, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomVeal

Faced with this scenario in real life, human managers would doubtless walk Brothers every time, thereby reducing his wOBA to a "mere" .690 from whatever astronomical level it reaches in the equivalent of A Ball. You've demonstrated that OOTP's AI logic isn't designed to consider circumstances like this -- a rational programming decision, since batters shouldn't wind up that badly mismatched to the competition. If they do, the settings chosen by the player are unrealistic. (I take it that Brothers has somehow wound up in a mediocre league that neither sells nor posts players and that he has agreed to a several year contract at, presumably, a tiny fraction of the salary that he could earn in MLB.)

What the AI does (I have no inside information, but it seems pretty obvious) is look first at the situation: first base empty? Runners on second, third or both? Fewer than two outs? A close score? A dangerous man at bat? If those conditions don't exist, it won't even consider an IBB. In your game, Dan Brothers always meets the last condition, but how often the others may exist isn't predictable.

In any event, how well a simulation mechanic performs in extreme and unrealistic cases tells us little about its ability to reflect reality with reasonable accuracy.

Nailed it! Actually, this brings up a few more questions --

Your scenario doesn't seem to predict when the algorithm should not recognize extreme numbers. Unless it is using ranges, that is - if x data is between y and z, do this, otherwise do this, otherwise. The default otherwise must be somehow to just ignore the data if is not within a recognized range.

All this happened because I am building regional associations, beginning with lowest up to highest. By the time Brouthers was added (premature obviously) level 6 was the highest level available. So ya, now he's locked in and it got ridiculous.

05-17-2020, 06:20 AM	#1
too_on_too_out Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 199	Let's talk IBB Scenario: fictional leagues, I am mixing actual players with fictional via the minor league import tool. Which led to Dan Brouthers playing in a league that has a 6 reputation. Results: he now owns the record books for life for that league. Example, he hit 101 HR in a league where the nearest fictional player hit 33. IBB: you would think in this scenario Brouthers would be walked a lot. Now, he does lead the league in total walks. But where the league leader has 22 IBB, Brouthers has 9. Yes, he is 3rd in the lineup and the guy that made the most starts in cleanup was hitting over .400 (OBP .528), with a modest HR total (15). Question: does Brouthers' IBB seem in the realm of reasonable? I think it's too low. Perhaps way too low. Brouthers ave is .534 and OBP .631. PLUS the 100+ HR. Don't you just walk him?

05-18-2020, 12:02 PM	#4
too_on_too_out Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 199	@slugga27 - bearing in mind the context of the discussion - OOTP. You are implying that OOTPD has achieved such programming granularity for IBB that its for loops and if statements are now pondering such philosophically esoteric realms. @CBeisbol - those numbers are seasonal. Cleanup hitting +.400 only started 60 games (out of 144). To me it's a no brainer that a guy with better than a coin flip chance of getting on PLUS a 70% chance of hitting a HR today gets a free pass FAR MORE OFTEN than anyone else in likely the history of baseball. Not place 9th in a 8 team league. Last edited by too_on_too_out; 05-18-2020 at 12:03 PM.

05-18-2020, 02:25 PM	#6
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 14,489	Mickey Mantle had very few IBB's during his peak years, or any years for that matter. If Mickey Mantle had played in a "6" level league, he would have hit 100 HR's also, but before that happened, he would have been signed by a Major League team. The scenario you're describing is not realistic, so I'm not really sure how you expect the OOTP engine to react? Last edited by Bluenoser; 05-18-2020 at 04:58 PM.

05-18-2020, 07:27 PM	#8
too_on_too_out Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 199	And, he is not listed in the league's player rankings list.... Def something broken. __________________ "Have you seen the new New Jersey jersey?" ("¿Has visto el nuevo Nuevo Jersey jersey, por favor?") "Who's Al?" ("¿Quien es 'El Al', por favor?")

05-17-2020, 10:36 AM	#2
slugga27 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,272	Nope. Especially if we're talking no one on and two outs (think: first inning, if he's hitting third), why would I want to face a .400 hitter with a man on? I remember Game 5 the '99 ALDS Red Sox-Indians...the Indians intentionally walked Nomar Garciaparra twice in the same game...Troy O'Leary followed with a three-run homer and a grand slam.

05-17-2020, 11:00 AM	#3
CBeisbol Banned Join Date: Aug 2019 Location: Ban land in 3...2... Posts: 2,943	Who hits after the league IBB leader? What are the handednesses of your two hitters When you talk about 101, 33 and 15 home runs is that per season? Career? What?

05-18-2020, 12:19 PM	#5
TomVeal All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Spanaway, Washington Posts: 1,258	Can you tell us something about the leader in IBB's? How good a hitter is he, and who bats after him?

05-19-2020, 12:46 PM	#10
TomVeal All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Spanaway, Washington Posts: 1,258	Faced with this scenario in real life, human managers would doubtless walk Brothers every time, thereby reducing his wOBA to a "mere" .690 from whatever astronomical level it reaches in the equivalent of A Ball. You've demonstrated that OOTP's AI logic isn't designed to consider circumstances like this -- a rational programming decision, since batters shouldn't wind up that badly mismatched to the competition. If they do, the settings chosen by the player are unrealistic. (I take it that Brothers has somehow wound up in a mediocre league that neither sells nor posts players and that he has agreed to a several year contract at, presumably, a tiny fraction of the salary that he could earn in MLB.) What the AI does (I have no inside information, but it seems pretty obvious) is look first at the situation: first base empty? Runners on second, third or both? Fewer than two outs? A close score? A dangerous man at bat? If those conditions don't exist, it won't even consider an IBB. In your game, Dan Brothers always meets the last condition, but how often the others may exist isn't predictable. In any event, how well a simulation mechanic performs in extreme and unrealistic cases tells us little about its ability to reflect reality with reasonable accuracy.