Game play contention

[Royalsusedtorule]

I love OOTP, I really do. I've faithfully purchased each new version since OOTP 7 and applaud the advances that have been made through the years. So many ways to use OOTP, and I've derived countless hours of enjoyment from many of them. In fact, OOTP often causes me to fall behind in my work and chores, etc. too often!

However, I do have one contention with the game play that is driving me absolutely nuts. Although I use OOTP in many different ways, as mentioned, I recently decided to play out every inning of every game for a season since there is no live baseball to follow. All in all, it's been enjoyable (helps that my Indians have gotten off to a good start!). However, the amount of called third strikes is, in my opinion, ridiculous for today's game. I have no problem with the overall strikeout totals for the leagues, teams and players - I believe they are all accurately reflected. But I watch a lot of baseball, and I don't see anywhere near the number of no-swing strikeouts as I am getting in OOTP. Recently, with the Indians trailing by one run in the bottom of the 8th, 3 straight batters (all with low to medium eye/patience ratings) watched third strikes go by. Two games later, trailing by one run in the 9th, same thing. I have seen this kind of thing too frequently in recent years and versions when partially playing out games, but it's been even more noticeable when playing out every game. It's almost common to see a batter, in a crucial situation, take a called third strike. James Paxton recently recorded 13 strikeouts against the Indians - 9 (nine!) on called third strikes. Clevinger just had an 11 strikeout game - 8 by called third strikes! Yes, there are a lot of strikeouts in today's game, but in the games I watch they aren't from batters standing around with the bat on their shoulders. It's maddening to me, and it's really sapping enjoyment from my current experience with OOTP. (I also believe there are too many weak infield grounders fielded by pitchers, but it's not as egregious as the called striekouts, IMO)

I'd like to hear thoughts from other OOTP players and posters in regards to this. Also, can any game developers tell me if the number of called vs. swinging strikeouts is taken from any actual MLB data? I could not find any accurate totals for called strikeouts for MLB seasons. If someone can show me that the numbers of called strikeouts in OOTP are accurate reflections of actual MLB season numbers, so be it - I'll accept that. But, as of now, what happens in OOTP does not seem to compute with the MLB that I have watched in recent years.

Overall, thanks to the OOTP team for another great version. So nice to be able to get my "Baseball Jones" with your product. My only other complaint is that it saps my laptop battery so damn fast! Ha!

[Bobbyraz49]

Originally Posted by Royalsusedtorule

I love OOTP, I really do. I've faithfully purchased each new version since OOTP 7 and applaud the advances that have been made through the years. So many ways to use OOTP, and I've derived countless hours of enjoyment from many of them. In fact, OOTP often causes me to fall behind in my work and chores, etc. too often!

However, I do have one contention with the game play that is driving me absolutely nuts. Although I use OOTP in many different ways, as mentioned, I recently decided to play out every inning of every game for a season since there is no live baseball to follow. All in all, it's been enjoyable (helps that my Indians have gotten off to a good start!). However, the amount of called third strikes is, in my opinion, ridiculous for today's game. I have no problem with the overall strikeout totals for the leagues, teams and players - I believe they are all accurately reflected. But I watch a lot of baseball, and I don't see anywhere near the number of no-swing strikeouts as I am getting in OOTP. Recently, with the Indians trailing by one run in the bottom of the 8th, 3 straight batters (all with low to medium eye/patience ratings) watched third strikes go by. Two games later, trailing by one run in the 9th, same thing. I have seen this kind of thing too frequently in recent years and versions when partially playing out games, but it's been even more noticeable when playing out every game. It's almost common to see a batter, in a crucial situation, take a called third strike. James Paxton recently recorded 13 strikeouts against the Indians - 9 (nine!) on called third strikes. Clevinger just had an 11 strikeout game - 8 by called third strikes! Yes, there are a lot of strikeouts in today's game, but in the games I watch they aren't from batters standing around with the bat on their shoulders. It's maddening to me, and it's really sapping enjoyment from my current experience with OOTP. (I also believe there are too many weak infield grounders fielded by pitchers, but it's not as egregious as the called striekouts, IMO)

I'd like to hear thoughts from other OOTP players and posters in regards to this. Also, can any game developers tell me if the number of called vs. swinging strikeouts is taken from any actual MLB data? I could not find any accurate totals for called strikeouts for MLB seasons. If someone can show me that the numbers of called strikeouts in OOTP are accurate reflections of actual MLB season numbers, so be it - I'll accept that. But, as of now, what happens in OOTP does not seem to compute with the MLB that I have watched in recent years.

Overall, thanks to the OOTP team for another great version. So nice to be able to get my "Baseball Jones" with your product. My only other complaint is that it saps my laptop battery so damn fast! Ha!

I agree. This is my first ever version of this sim....OOTPBB21. I REALLY enjoy this game. Nothing worse than seeing Pete Alonso strikeout with guys on base while looking at the pitch.

[CBeisbol]

Collect data

Would be my advice

You'll either see that your impressions are incorrect or have some evidence to show the developers

[Royalsusedtorule]

OK, so I finally found some numbers for MLB called third strikes, which I'd had trouble locating. The last season I could find was 2018 (nothing for 2019), but I figured that was recent enough to be viable (especially after seeing what the trend has been).
In 2018, it appears there were 42,207 total Ks with 9,795 on called third strikes (23%). What surprised me was looking back at the seven seasons leading up to 2019 - all seven hovering right in the 23% range.

2012 - 36,426, 8,700, 24%
2013 - 36,710, 8,630, 23%
2014 - 37,441, 9,189, 24%
2015 - 37, 446, 8,743, 23%
2016 - 38,982, 8,957, 23%
2017 - 40, 104, 9,318, 23%
2018 - 42,207, 9,795, 23%

That consistency of percentage was pretty amazing to me!

So, I decided I will track every game during the season I am in on OOTP the rest of the way. There were 131 games remaining in that season, so will give a fair sample size for a season (especially since I watched high enough numbers of called third strikes during first first 35 games for this to be noticeable and get my attention).

In the first 4 games since I first posted and found the total numbers above, here were the results.

Gm 1 - 13 Ks, 6 called third strikes, 46%
Gm 2 - 17 Ks, 6 called, 35%
Gm 3 - 14 Ks, 8 called, 57%
Gm 4 - 10 Ks, 3 called, 30%

Now, I know 4 games isn't saying much for sample size, but all 4 were considerably higher than 23-24%. If anyone would have asked me before starting to track what percentage I had thought I had been seeing in played out games, I would have said 30-40% off top of my head - and been pretty close as far as those 4 games (and actually a little low!).

My contention with the issue also involved the situations called third strikes were happening in. When 2-3 straight batters in today's whiff-happy age take called third strikes in late-inning, close-game (trailing) situations with runners in scoring position or bases loaded MULTIPLE TIMES, I think there is a problem with realism.

Maybe this will sort itself out over the next 127 games. Will be interesting to see. If not, it may be something to study further.

[jimmysthebestcop]

You are probably right. I like the 3D engine as a fun experience I just don't know how realistic it is. My biggest pet peeve is the syncing between base runners, extra base hits, and throws. It is completely off the vast majority of the time. It just looks weird and bothers me.

Some players complain about how easy it is to steal bases in "playing mode". Others about wild pitches, balks, running through walls, and diving catches.

I tell you the other thing I have never seen is my 3B stepping on 3rd base for a force out with 2 outs in the game. Why throw to 1st when you caught a grounder 2 inches from the bag? Just move your foot over a couple of inches, inning over.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Royalsusedtorule

OK, so I finally found some numbers for MLB called third strikes, which I'd had trouble locating. The last season I could find was 2018 (nothing for 2019), but I figured that was recent enough to be viable (especially after seeing what the trend has been).
In 2018, it appears there were 42,207 total Ks with 9,795 on called third strikes (23%). What surprised me was looking back at the seven seasons leading up to 2019 - all seven hovering right in the 23% range.

2012 - 36,426, 8,700, 24%
2013 - 36,710, 8,630, 23%
2014 - 37,441, 9,189, 24%
2015 - 37, 446, 8,743, 23%
2016 - 38,982, 8,957, 23%
2017 - 40, 104, 9,318, 23%
2018 - 42,207, 9,795, 23%

That consistency of percentage was pretty amazing to me!

So, I decided I will track every game during the season I am in on OOTP the rest of the way. There were 131 games remaining in that season, so will give a fair sample size for a season (especially since I watched high enough numbers of called third strikes during first first 35 games for this to be noticeable and get my attention).

In the first 4 games since I first posted and found the total numbers above, here were the results.

Gm 1 - 13 Ks, 6 called third strikes, 46%
Gm 2 - 17 Ks, 6 called, 35%
Gm 3 - 14 Ks, 8 called, 57%
Gm 4 - 10 Ks, 3 called, 30%

Now, I know 4 games isn't saying much for sample size, but all 4 were considerably higher than 23-24%. If anyone would have asked me before starting to track what percentage I had thought I had been seeing in played out games, I would have said 30-40% off top of my head - and been pretty close as far as those 4 games (and actually a little low!).

My contention with the issue also involved the situations called third strikes were happening in. When 2-3 straight batters in today's whiff-happy age take called third strikes in late-inning, close-game (trailing) situations with runners in scoring position or bases loaded MULTIPLE TIMES, I think there is a problem with realism.

Maybe this will sort itself out over the next 127 games. Will be interesting to see. If not, it may be something to study further.

First thank you for actually taking the time to try to track this. So many post they think\know something is off but never take the time to look at the data. Kudos to you

I have no idea how your study will come out but agree right now extremely small sample. Maybe the team you are facing could skew the stats say if their pitching staff lead the league in K's? Follow that up playing a team that is last in the league in K's and perhaps it evens out? In any case since you're keeping track you will have hard data in the end.

It's also something others could jump in on and check out in their leagues. I'm a week or two away (real time) from starting a new season but may start keeping track too. I don't play in today's high K setting but more like early 2000's so would have to find stats from those years to compare. However, you're numbers back to 2012 are so consistent it probably wouldn't matter.

Very interested to see what you come up with.

[Harry Hibbs]

I play out all my games and my sense is, you are correct, i.e. more called Ks than IRL. My guess is that the game's stats engine doesn't distinguish between called Ks or swinging Ks, only the animation does, and that's likely to be random, so maybe 50/50?

[Eugene Church]

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

You are probably right. I like the 3D engine as a fun experience I just don't know how realistic it is. My biggest pet peeve is the syncing between base runners, extra base hits, and throws. It is completely off the vast majority of the time. It just looks weird and bothers me.

Some players complain about how easy it is to steal bases in "playing mode". Others about wild pitches, balks, running through walls, and diving catches.

I tell you the other thing I have never seen is my 3B stepping on 3rd base for a force out with 2 outs in the game. Why throw to 1st when you caught a grounder 2 inches from the bag? Just move your foot over a couple of inches, inning over.

Don't have any statistical facts, but I have never seen the third baseman step on the bag to end an inning or even a force out with less than two outs... I may have seen him step on the bag for the first out and then throws to first to double the runner.

You never see him tag a runner from second who is right near him.either.. the third baseman always throws to first.

[RchW]

I know this is meaningless via sample size but I only play out playoff games. I checked the last three games I played out, one of which went 22 innings (25k) and got the following.

Called 1 7 1 = 9
Swinging 11 18 10 = 39 for 19%

FWIW

[KentCol]

Agree. Called strikeouts are ridiculous. Way too many.

[fuzzy_patters]

Studying this yourself seems like it would be fruitless because it might be determined by ratings, and your team will have different ratings than other teams. Maybe a better plan would be for us to have a sign up of some sort for volunteers to do a small sample of games. For example, if we had 20 people do 10 games each, we would have a 200 game sample of 20 different teams plus their opponents.

[seven]

Originally Posted by fuzzy_patters

Studying this yourself seems like it would be fruitless because it might be determined by ratings, and your team will have different ratings than other teams. Maybe a better plan would be for us to have a sign up of some sort for volunteers to do a small sample of games. For example, if we had 20 people do 10 games each, we would have a 200 game sample of 20 different teams plus their opponents.

I like the call for data on this question. It's far too easy for casual impressions to be strongly influenced by particular, especially recent events.

I run a current-season MLB simulation (with parameters pretty much out-of-the box) and I examined the game logs for this Saturday's games (May 16). Across the 15 games there was a total of 258 strikeouts. (By the way, for 2019 in the MLB, one would expect about 264 strikeouts in 15 games according to Baseball Reference.)

Of the 258 strikeouts in those 15 simulated games, 53 (or 20.5%) were strikeouts looking. This is not too far off what was listed as recent actual MLB results in one of the entries in this thread (about 23% strikeouts looking). In fact, I ran a statistical test, called a chi-squared test for those of you who know a bit about statistical testing, and this sample provided no evidence for a meaningful deviation from what would be expected if the true strikeout-looking rate were 23%.

I look forward to seeing others contribute example results.

[ablobj]

I'm inclined to agree with Mr. Hibbs. It seems unlikely to me that the developers would go to the trouble of incorporating strikeouts looking vs strikeouts swinging, especially on an individual basis for each and every batter and pitcher in the game. It's probably just random.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by ablobj

I'm inclined to agree with Mr. Hibbs. It seems unlikely to me that the developers would go to the trouble of incorporating strikeouts looking vs strikeouts swinging, especially on an individual basis for each and every batter and pitcher in the game. It's probably just random.

My experience with Markus is if he has the data he will find a way to use it. He could very well have the same data that was posted in this thread and incorporated it into the game.

Since the game determines a result and then builds a video to show what happened it could be as simple as the game rolling a K and then applying a realistic percent, though I would think it would be a bit more complex. IE tying in a P's velocity, stuff, B's eye, contact etc. Of course that is only a guess same as you and Hibbs

The good thing is it's easy enough to see and track if one plays out their games and takes the time to record what they are seeing.

[jimmysthebestcop]

I think mostly what's happens in the ootpb ai world is everything comes in batches not that far off from real life.

So you might get 3 games in a row where you see 15 diving catches or 6 wild pitches or 45 strikeouts, whatever. Just crazy stuff. Then 2 weeks goes by with nothing happening.

So end of month or end of year numbers always look right. But when you are viewing the games they appear "funny" to people.

Neither side really tells the complete story. You have appearance vs numbers.

I don't think the 3d "out of sync" helps anything. It hasn't really gotten better in 3 years. Yes the animations have improved. But the flow of the game is completely out of sync. So when playing out games, since it's out of sync, some people just get a feeling that something's off. Then see a bunch of wind pitches or something, and it's jarring. If the game play was more in sync and smoother I think the other blemishes of the random number gods would be complained about much less.

Take football manager and Motorsport manager when watching those games in 3d they are much much smoother and in sync. I think that is the number 1 problem . Once a simulation feels off then the brain notices more blemishes.

I honestly don't know how people play every game out in 3d. Its so out of sync it drives me crazy. Base runners, hits to outfield and throws never ever flow right. Sometimes it syncs but the flow is off. Usually outs the game has. But extra base hits. Flow and sync completely off.

To me that is a much bigger deal then the SS gunning the ball 1 foot away from the 2b animation.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by KentCol

Agree. Called strikeouts are ridiculous. Way too many.

Not even close by my small sample which is more significant than your sample of none. Real data is needed.

[Sweed]

Ok, back with my real OOTP data...

So far I have played out 8 spring training games and the result

23 called K's, 115 total k's, .200 avg.

Will keep on watching this and be back with regular season numbers when I get that far.

[Royalsusedtorule]

OK, I'm one game from the halfway point of the season, still tracking called Ks. The numbers I have are still hovering consistently around 27-29% when you take them in 10 game blocks, still well above the 23% consistent real life percentage I had found and posted. There are outlier games here and there, and even series, where the numbers are well below 23% and sometimes as high as 40%+ (which is not unusual for baseball).

While I still feel the percentage of called strikeouts in OOTP runs a bit too high, I could put that aside and live with it if a full season does come in somewhere in high 20s percentage-wise, as it now seems it might. However, it's situations of called strikeouts that drives me batty!

Two recent examples (of situations I see far too often):

Just had a game with a mediocre opposing pitcher (lefty) with high control rating and low season walk total get peppered by my lineup. One run in, one out, bases loaded, my #4 and #5 hitters up, both right handed and both with lower patience ratings, low season walk percentages and fairly high strikeout totals. Both stood there and took called third strikes.

Roughly one week prior to that, in 7th inning, my pitcher has not walked a batter, has allowed two singles and a double in the inning. Opponents trailed by two runs, have runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out, two batters coming up - one with about average eye/patience and the other very low. Yep, my pitcher gets two called Ks to get out of trouble.

Now, I know, I know, it's baseball, anything can happen and usually does. Hey, I watch a lot of MLB and college baseball. But, like I mentioned, I see these types of situations happen too frequently in my game play. Yes, baseball has become the 3 true values game (too much in my opinion), but I simply do not see the called third strike K nearly as frequently or very often in those types of situations in real life.

OOTP is an unbelievable entertainment product. I rave about if to people who have never played it. Believe me, I have promoted the heck out of it and I know I have generated some customers. I am NOT knocking OOTP overall. I do just believe this one issue needs attention. iI certainly affects my enjoyment when playing games out.

I'll finish up this season and check back in with my total numbers and experiences. Just wanted to get that off my chest.

Peace all.

[Matt Arnold]

Looks like the MLB rates have shifted. A lot of our data like this is probably from earlier years - looks like our current rate is geared more to that 26%-28% range, whereas actual MLB is down more towards 23% these days.

Happy to poke at that a little more. I'll admit, it's not a stat I follow closely, so if anyone wants to have more suggestions for either batters or pitchers or situations which may end up with more called strike 3s vs swinging strike 3s, happy to listen and adjust things

[Royalsusedtorule]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Looks like the MLB rates have shifted. A lot of our data like this is probably from earlier years - looks like our current rate is geared more to that 26%-28% range, whereas actual MLB is down more towards 23% these days.

Happy to poke at that a little more. I'll admit, it's not a stat I follow closely, so if anyone wants to have more suggestions for either batters or pitchers or situations which may end up with more called strike 3s vs swinging strike 3s, happy to listen and adjust things

Thanks! That is one of the GREAT things about OOTP. The developers are not "high and mighty" types. You guys are always willing to listen, debate and consider your users' comments. It's very refreshing.

It had been something I just thought I had noticed a bit in recent years, but playing out every game of a season (which I haven't normally done in the past) drove the point home to me this year. I'm in awe of the product you guys produce and the improvements you have made through the years. Appreciate your attention. I'll post my numbers again when I complete this full season. I don't know that every user would have the same numbers playing out the same season with the same or different team, of course, but figured a full season would be a pretty good sample for consideration of the issue at least.