Can low Stuff SP’s be successful?

brian_msbc · 05-09-2020, 01:58 PM

I did some non-linear regression on SP’s and what I noticed was that rate increases in highly rated stuff makes a big difference, but once you get below 45ish... it doesn’t really matter.

Has anyone had success with SP’s with 30 or 35 Stuff but above average movement and control? They would be extremely dependent on A normal BABIP but if you have a good defense and a small ballpark they would in theory be successful.

Obviously not looking for a Cy Young winner but a back of the rotation guy on the cheap.

Curve Ball Dave · 05-09-2020, 07:48 PM

I mix historical players with the current. There are several quality SPs in my universe with low k/9 rates but they have exceptional control and with their excellent movement keep the ball in the park.

dodger300 · 05-09-2020, 10:02 PM

Yes, but you want strong defenders up the middle (C,SS,2B,CF). Good control and movement. And a good mix of 4 or 5 pitches.

05-09-2020, 01:58 PM	#1
brian_msbc Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 94	Can low Stuff SP’s be successful? I did some non-linear regression on SP’s and what I noticed was that rate increases in highly rated stuff makes a big difference, but once you get below 45ish... it doesn’t really matter. Has anyone had success with SP’s with 30 or 35 Stuff but above average movement and control? They would be extremely dependent on A normal BABIP but if you have a good defense and a small ballpark they would in theory be successful. Obviously not looking for a Cy Young winner but a back of the rotation guy on the cheap. Last edited by brian_msbc; 05-09-2020 at 02:00 PM.

05-09-2020, 07:48 PM	#2
Curve Ball Dave Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,363	I mix historical players with the current. There are several quality SPs in my universe with low k/9 rates but they have exceptional control and with their excellent movement keep the ball in the park. __________________ "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

05-09-2020, 10:02 PM	#3
dodger300 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Las Vegas Posts: 268	Yes, but you want strong defenders up the middle (C,SS,2B,CF). Good control and movement. And a good mix of 4 or 5 pitches. __________________