Who would you start?

[thklein]

Ended up tied for the division lead, so I have a 1 game playoff to avoid the wildcard game. My top three pitchers are not rested, so I'm choosing between my 4 and 5. Which of these would you choose? The stats point to El-Amin but the ratings suggest Cardenas.

[CBeisbol]

Do you believe your scout is better than a complete idiot who knows nothing about the players that he's observed?

If yes, start Cardenas.
If no, get a new scout in the off-season.

But, as with all elimination games, be ready with the quick hook. I'd fully expect both of them to pitch in this game as well as your top few relievers.

One possible difference in their performance is their stamina. Cardenas is averaging just about 4.5 innings per start while El-Amin is going about 5.5. Cardenas might be being left in too long which is hurting his performance. Have you noticed that he's performing worse later in games? I can't remember if OOTP has splits per inning or per times facing a batter or per pitch number. It should.

Another potential factor is that Cardenas is a GB pitcher. Do you have a particularly poor infield defense that would impact Cardenas' numbers more than El-Amin's?



I'd probably start Cardenas. Expect him to get through the order once. Should be 2+ innings. Then switch to a reliever you're comfortable having pitch the rest of that 3rd inning and the fourth, then bring in El-Amin to, again, go once through the order. That should be the 5th, 6th, and part of the seventh. Then throw your best relievers the last two plus innings.

[thklein]

Thanks. I went through Cardenas' game log and looked at the box score for every game in which he gave up three or more runs. Most of the time it looks like the runs came in the first three innings. There were a couple games where he got beat up in the fifth. He only pitched 6 or more innings 5 times all season, and he didn't give up more than 1 ER in any of those starts.

[Hotwheelz]

It seems El-Amin has been the better pitcher and I'd probably lean towards starting him. However, I'd also look at who was better down the stretch. Maybe look at second half stats for each or the last few starts.

In short I'd go with the hot hand.

[thklein]

I went with Cardenas. He started off triple, double and I immediately had regrets. I considered pulling him right there, but I stuck with him and got through the inning with no further damage (although he did give up the longest foul ball ever hit by man, judging from the animation). He gave up a double to lead off the second, but got through that inning as well. I ended up pinch hitting for him in the bottom of the third with the score 1-0. My bullpen then gave up only a solo homer over the next five innings (I didn't end up using El-Amin), and I entered the bottom of the ninth with a 4-2 lead. My closer than starts the ninth with a single, a walk, a strike out, and a three run home run. I'm now down 5-4,and I made a couple defensive replacements so one of my best hitters is no longer in the game. Bottom of the ninth starts out with a strike out, then a single, and then another single. I now have runners on first and third with one out, but the batter is a roster expansion call up I brought in as a defensive replacement at short. I don't have a better option on the bench, so I let him hit. He grounds out to first and the run doesn't score. I was so thankful it wasn't a double play. The next batter is my first baseman, who lines a walk off double into the right field gap. That was a fun game.

[Germaniac]

My choice would have been Cardenas, too

[CBeisbol]

Fun game

You didn't post the pitching part of the box score

[thklein]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Fun game

You didn't post the pitching part of the box score

Here it is.

My biggest strategic blunder was letting my pitcher try to lay down a bunt in the 7th inning. I had runners on first and second with no outs and I was up 4-2. I thought I'd bunt them over, get the insurance run, and go into the last two innings with a 3 run lead. He did get the bunt down, but they got the lead runner (seems to happen a lot when trying to bunt from 2nd to 3rd). I should have brought in a pinch hitter and gone for the big inning, but, alas, I am an idiot.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by thklein

Here it is.

My biggest strategic blunder was letting my pitcher try to lay down a bunt in the 7th inning. I had runners on first and second with no outs and I was up 4-2. I thought I'd bunt them over, get the insurance run, and go into the last two innings with a 3 run lead. He did get the bunt down, but they got the lead runner (seems to happen a lot when trying to bunt from 2nd to 3rd). I should have brought in a pinch hitter and gone for the big inning, but, alas, I am an idiot.

Don't be so hard on yourself. One of the signs of being an idiot is not reconsidering your position

Using real MLB data from 2011 to 2019
Teams in your original position scored an average of 1.46 runs in that inning and scored at least a run in 62% of innings.
https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/bas....0.0.2011.2019

Had the sacrifice worked, and runners were at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, scored an average of 1.36 runs and scored at least a run in 66% of innings.
https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/bas....0.0.2011.2019

So, yes, you are correct you decreased the expectation of the number of runs you would score, but, tried, to increase the probability of scoring.

Note: this not consider the specifics of the players - a pitcher at the playe for example, the strength of the following hitters, whether they are more likely to hit for contact, etc.


What makes this trickier is balancing the change in offense vs the change in run prevention. Was that an elite reliever you were replacing with a worse reliever?

In the example, assuming average offense, you'd be expected to score .1 more runs by hitting. The new reliever would have to be expected to give up MORE than .1 runs per inning for it to have been a bad move. .1 runs per inning is .9 runs per 9 innings. So a reliever with almost a full run more of projected ERA or FIP.

It looks like you only got one more out with the reliever you considered hitting for.

Letting a hitter hit was probably the right idea, unless you were replacing a very good reliever with a bad one.

[thklein]

Part of it was I didn’t think I needed a big inning. I was trying to maximize my chances of getting at least one run because I felt a three run lead would be pretty safe.

I also thought I could get another inning out of that left handed pitcher. The first two hitters the next inning were a lefty and a switch hitter with significantly worse numbers against lefties. He got the first batter to ground to the 2nd baseman, but unfortunately that was the error. He got the next out, and I pulled him for a righty. If it had been bases empty and 2 outs, like it should have been, I probably would have let him try to finish the inning.

[Anyone]

If the pitcher you kept in was better by more than a small margin than the guy (considering handenedness and fatigue as well as pure ability) who'd have replaced him I'd have made the same decision.

With a 2 run lead late in the game I wouldn't have felt like I needed a big inning, either.

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by thklein

Ended up tied for the division lead, so I have a 1 game playoff to avoid the wildcard game. My top three pitchers are not rested, so I'm choosing between my 4 and 5. Which of these would you choose? The stats point to El-Amin but the ratings suggest Cardenas.

For me I check how each pitcher faired against said Opponent, If similar I check on who has highest WAR & check on the last 5 games each has pitched. It's nothing scientific but you asked how we handle that situation...I mean if the worst of the 2 is on a 5 game win steak vs the better one on 5 game losing streak...Hot Hand usually gets nod for me.

[jimmysthebestcop]

Stretch had the better year always ride the hot hand.

Ratings are for finding future players on your team that have very little stats.

Juan's fip was below average while stretch's fip was above average.

Edit....
Hmmm interesting there fip- are damn close. Which is fip accounting for park factors. Wonder what Juan's home/road splits were. Could have been a couple parks just giving him trouble unless it was always at the home park

[thklein]

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

Stretch had the better year always ride the hot hand.

Ratings are for finding future players on your team that have very little stats.

Juan's fip was below average while stretch's fip was above average.

Edit....
Hmmm interesting there fip- are damn close. Which is fip accounting for park factors. Wonder what Juan's home/road splits were. Could have been a couple parks just giving him trouble unless it was always at the home park

Home/road splits was not something I thought to check, and it's complicated by the fact that I acquired both players during the season, so each of them have home games at a different home. Juan only started four games at Wrigley before this tie-breaker game. Three of those were in August, so I looked at his home split in August. He had a 1.11 WHIP, a 3.3 K/BB ratio, a 2.74 FIP, and a 60 FIP-. His only other start at Wrigley was in July, just after I acquired him. He pitched 5 innings and gave up 5 hits, 3 walks, and 0 earned runs.

I acquired El-Amin in mid-June, so he had 7 starts at Wrigley plus another before I acquired him. 6 of them were in August and September (3 starts each month). In August he had a 1.80 WHIP, a 2.4 K/BB, a 4.43 FIP, and a 97 FIP- at home. In September he had a 1.05 WHIP, a 2.4 K/BB, a 4.50 FIP, and a 99 FIP-. In his 2 other starts at Wrigley (one as the visiting pitcher) he had 13.1 innings, 12 hits, 4 walks, and gave up 3 earned runs.

All told, it looks like Juan had the better stats at Wrigley. Is there a way to see a player's stats at a specific ball park? That would have made this a lot easier.


Juan is listed as a reliever in the screenshots because I've been using him as a reliever in the post season (going with a 4 man rotation.)

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by thklein

All told, it looks like Juan had the better stats at Wrigley. Is there a way to see a player's stats at a specific ball park?

I'm not sure
I sometimes get confused as to what exists on baseball-reference and what's in OOTP

I would also tell you to never use splits in a specific stadium to inform any decision.

I mean, in this example you're looking at what happened in 4 games and 7 games. Those results are mostly noise.

[thklein]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

I would also tell you to never use splits in a specific stadium to inform any decision.

I mean, in this example you're looking at what happened in 4 games and 7 games. Those results are mostly noise.

I'm not sure how much weight I would have given this if I had known it ahead of time. This is mostly just a worm hole I started down because someone asked about home/road splits.