Question on Pack Odds

bwiese3908 · 04-11-2020, 01:22 PM

Happy Saturday Everyone,

Quick question for those in the know...

The odds are 1000:1 to pull a Perfect Card, in that 1 of 1000 chance is it the same odds to pull a Babe Ruth as it is a Live Christian Yelich (just an example)

Trying to figure out if the odds are the same for any card or if they are skewed to Live or certain cards.

Thanks Everyone, and be safe out there!!

BigRed75 · 04-11-2020, 01:23 PM

It's skewed to Lives because the supply of Live cards is greater.

Westheim · 04-11-2020, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRed75

It's skewed to Lives because the supply of Live cards is greater.

I think you mean the right thing, but this is terribly formulated and could indicate the exact opposite of what it is.

More precise explanation: *A* live card is more likely to drop than *a* non-live card. (Is it still 70% live? Or did they change it to 65%? Or was it 75% in 19 and they changed it to 70% in 20? Sorry, bit fuzzy on this right now.

)

Whether a *specific* live card is more likely to drop than a *specific* non-live card depends on the card supply in each group. Now, I have no idea how many historical perfects are in the game right now, but there seems to be precisely 11 live perfects. If live perfects drop at a rate of 70%, then 6.36% of all perfect cards will be a specific live card, say, Max Scherzer (which is the only one I have).

Since there is definitely *more* than 11 historical perfects, and they only represent 30% of the perfect cards, the odds are going to be much smaller for each individual historical perfect. At 20 cards it would be 1.5%; at 30 cards 1%; ... you get the idea.

bailey · 04-12-2020, 09:33 AM

Last year it was 70% live 30% historical for players bronze and above. Nothing was said about this being changed except there are a LOT more iron historical players, so maybe it is 70-30 for all classes?

noragar · 04-12-2020, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bailey

Last year it was 70% live 30% historical for players bronze and above. Nothing was said about this being changed except there are a LOT more iron historical players, so maybe it is 70-30 for all classes?

In 742 packs, I'm running right around 30% for Bronze and above (29.81% to be exact) and about 15% for Irons (15.55%)

04-11-2020, 01:22 PM	#1
bwiese3908 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 145	Question on Pack Odds Happy Saturday Everyone, Quick question for those in the know... The odds are 1000:1 to pull a Perfect Card, in that 1 of 1000 chance is it the same odds to pull a Babe Ruth as it is a Live Christian Yelich (just an example) Trying to figure out if the odds are the same for any card or if they are skewed to Live or certain cards. Thanks Everyone, and be safe out there!!

04-11-2020, 01:23 PM	#2
BigRed75 Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 2,430	It's skewed to Lives because the supply of Live cards is greater. __________________ Mainline team SPTT team Was not a Snag fan...until I saw the fallout once he was gone and realized what a good job he was actually doing. - Ty Cobb

04-12-2020, 09:33 AM	#4
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,366	Last year it was 70% live 30% historical for players bronze and above. Nothing was said about this being changed except there are a LOT more iron historical players, so maybe it is 70-30 for all classes?