Wow this decision by my manager

KBLover · 12-24-2019, 12:55 PM

These are the kinds of decisions that get managers fired:

Code:

Batting: LHB Bob Kennedy	
0-0: Ball
Luis Malfavon is caught stealing 3rd base 2-5
1-0: Foul Ball, location: 2F
1-1: Ball
2-1: Foul Ball, location: 2F
2-2: Ball
3-2: Base on Balls
Ajani DeBouse to second

So, with runners on first and second, one out, 3-3 tie in the bottom of the 8th, he puts the steal on to try to steal third.

This is a ridiculous decision.

-The double play is still in order if it worked (DeBouse was still on first, he advanced to second on the walk by the batter). At least call the double steal. DeBouse then is on second, keeping someone in scoring position if it failed, and if it works, it's 2nd+3rd and they load the bases or bring infield in.

-Malfavon was already in scoring position in a tie game in the 8th. A single scores him with his 80 speed and 75 base running in all likelihood. And if he gets nailed at the plate, tip your cap to the outfielder. Make them play the game.

Adding extra salt is that my team was tied for the division lead and this was the final day of the season. If we win, at the least it forces a one-game playoff, or we win division outright.

Fortunately, we're in as a Wild Card.

Now, I wonder just how many of these he's called...

CBeisbol · 12-24-2019, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KBLover

These are the kinds of decisions that get managers fired:

Code:

Batting: LHB Bob Kennedy	
0-0: Ball
Luis Malfavon is caught stealing 3rd base 2-5
1-0: Foul Ball, location: 2F
1-1: Ball
2-1: Foul Ball, location: 2F
2-2: Ball
3-2: Base on Balls
Ajani DeBouse to second

So, with runners on first and second, one out, 3-3 tie in the bottom of the 8th, he puts the steal on to try to steal third.

This is a ridiculous decision.

-The double play is still in order if it worked (DeBouse was still on first, he advanced to second on the walk by the batter). At least call the double steal. DeBouse then is on second, keeping someone in scoring position if it failed, and if it works, it's 2nd+3rd and they load the bases or bring infield in.

-Malfavon was already in scoring position in a tie game in the 8th. A single scores him with his 80 speed and 75 base running in all likelihood. And if he gets nailed at the plate, tip your cap to the outfielder. Make them play the game.

Adding extra salt is that my team was tied for the division lead and this was the final day of the season. If we win, at the least it forces a one-game playoff, or we win division outright.

Fortunately, we're in as a Wild Card.

Now, I wonder just how many of these he's called...

Made me wonder if OOTP accounts for players stealing "on their own". I'd assume not.

There shouldn't really be a steal option. Green light would be more realistic.

Anyway,
I'm not sure that it's as bad a decision as you seem to think.

With one out is by far the best time to attempt to steal 3rd.

According to this FanGraphs research,.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking...k-even-points/

You only need about a 70% success rate to exceed break even.

Though, you only need a 60% success rate on a double steal.

*This varies, obviously, on the specific run environment.

What was the speed/steal of the runner on first?

Maybe later I'll look at the consequences of having the runner thrown out at second.

Again, OOTP probably doesn't account for this, but the runner at first *could* have missed the sign or fell down

Gruber_Tagged_Him · 12-24-2019, 02:55 PM

I don't find that overly egregious depending on what kind of a hitter Kennedy is. Frustrating, yes. But so is watching your premiere base stealer stand there on first vs a poor battery and then see the catcher hit into a double play...

KBLover · 12-26-2019, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

According to this FanGraphs research,.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking...k-even-points/

You only need about a 70% success rate to exceed break even.

Though, you only need a 60% success rate on a double steal.

*This varies, obviously, on the specific run environment.

What was the speed/steal of the runner on first?

I don't know if there's missed signs and since this was a simmed game, I'm not sure what the pbp would have said (assuming that hints at some of what the "die rolls" are behind the scenes).

DeBouse (man on 1st) has like 30/45 speed/baserunning (he's slow, not quite glacially slow, but below average) which is why the DP would still be a big threat even the steal of 3rd would have worked.

Run environment is close to current (2018-2019) MLB, though probably a tick higher, so I'd take those Fangraphs numbers as applicable to my league.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gruber_Tagged_Him

I don't find that overly egregious depending on what kind of a hitter Kennedy is. Frustrating, yes. But so is watching your premiere base stealer stand there on first vs a poor battery and then see the catcher hit into a double play...

Kennedy is a 50-55 in all areas, so nothing amazing, but can handle the bat and do some damage. He hit 24 HR and had around 2.5 WAR so pretty much league average made flesh.

TomVeal · 12-26-2019, 10:10 PM

If the steal is successful, Malfavon, as a fast runner on third with one out, can score on a fielder's choice, a sacrifice fly or a squeeze play. There's a risk of a double play, but, assuming that Kennedy, a lefty batter, pulls ground balls to right, that risk is reduced by the fact that the defense is less likely to shift against him with a man on third.

A double steal runs the risk that DeBouse will be thrown out at second, leaving two outs and a runner on third who will be left stranded by a third out.

The AI's decision doesn't look particularly egregious to me. I've seen many worse, even by live managers in real life.

12-24-2019, 12:55 PM	#1
KBLover All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 580	Wow this decision by my manager These are the kinds of decisions that get managers fired: Code: Batting: LHB Bob Kennedy 0-0: Ball Luis Malfavon is caught stealing 3rd base 2-5 1-0: Foul Ball, location: 2F 1-1: Ball 2-1: Foul Ball, location: 2F 2-2: Ball 3-2: Base on Balls Ajani DeBouse to second So, with runners on first and second, one out, 3-3 tie in the bottom of the 8th, he puts the steal on to try to steal third. This is a ridiculous decision. -The double play is still in order if it worked (DeBouse was still on first, he advanced to second on the walk by the batter). At least call the double steal. DeBouse then is on second, keeping someone in scoring position if it failed, and if it works, it's 2nd+3rd and they load the bases or bring infield in. -Malfavon was already in scoring position in a tie game in the 8th. A single scores him with his 80 speed and 75 base running in all likelihood. And if he gets nailed at the plate, tip your cap to the outfielder. Make them play the game. Adding extra salt is that my team was tied for the division lead and this was the final day of the season. If we win, at the least it forces a one-game playoff, or we win division outright. Fortunately, we're in as a Wild Card. Now, I wonder just how many of these he's called...

12-24-2019, 02:55 PM	#3
Gruber_Tagged_Him Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: Canada Posts: 209	I don't find that overly egregious depending on what kind of a hitter Kennedy is. Frustrating, yes. But so is watching your premiere base stealer stand there on first vs a poor battery and then see the catcher hit into a double play...

12-26-2019, 10:10 PM	#5
TomVeal All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Spanaway, Washington Posts: 1,260	If the steal is successful, Malfavon, as a fast runner on third with one out, can score on a fielder's choice, a sacrifice fly or a squeeze play. There's a risk of a double play, but, assuming that Kennedy, a lefty batter, pulls ground balls to right, that risk is reduced by the fact that the defense is less likely to shift against him with a man on third. A double steal runs the risk that DeBouse will be thrown out at second, leaving two outs and a runner on third who will be left stranded by a third out. The AI's decision doesn't look particularly egregious to me. I've seen many worse, even by live managers in real life.