Hit & Run

[One Great Matrix]

Is there a way to determine whether or not a player can execute the hitting part of a hit & run successfully more often than not vs. your average player. A specific rating, combination, something else?

[justpatrick]

I think that would be connected to contact, at least that´s what I always assumed. It would be great though to have a separate hit and run rating.

[One Great Matrix]

I figured maybe eye as well, that would kind of make sense if it's a combination of eye and contact and avoid K's, because when hit & run is on, you want to make good contact but you have got to leave or hit the pitch sometimes (vaguely step in front of the catcher if it's a ball you couldn't put in play well, see if the runner can swipe a bag...), don't think you want to put it on for players who swing & miss often.

[justpatrick]

Originally Posted by One Great Matrix

I figured maybe eye as well, that would kind of make sense if it's a combination of eye and contact and avoid K's, because when hit & run is on, you want to make good contact but you have got to leave or hit the pitch sometimes (vaguely step in front of the catcher if it's a ball you couldn't put in play well, see if the runner can swipe a bag...), don't think you want to put it on for players who swing & miss often.

That all sounds very logical, I imagine all those things have some bearing on the outcome. I was surprised there wasn´t a hit and run rating, seems natural since you have two bunting ratings.

[One Great Matrix]

Usually when I play in sim mode it is just to sim not go GM/Manage...That's another question...How much of these adjustments if any are PT specific?

[chazzycat]

In theory I would think "avoid K" would be the critical rating. A strikeout would be the worst possible result, since it would lead to a strike-em-out / throw-em-out double play very often.

In practice though, after running some tests and trying various settings with the hit and run sliders....I don't think they really do much at all. My best guess is that since they are out of fashion in today's MLB (thanks to the prevalence of HR power) the LTMs only allot a very small number of hit&run plays to each league/season. So overall they end up having a negligible effect on gameplay even if you crank the slider way up.

[One Great Matrix]

Thanks...but ...when you say you don't 'think' they do much, you mean you've observed the difference as not much or you have watched hours & hours of replay and clearly don't see the hit & run being put on more or less often depending on where you have it set.

Because I remember I had Brett's set just one notch high and he hit & run with terrible results in a playoff game, where the runners took off and the outfielder made an outstanding catch and doubled up not one runner off the bag but...TWO. I would have won that game if the ball dropped in, too ()....and it was sort of an accident that Brett's hit & run slider was notched up.

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by One Great Matrix

Thanks...but ...when you say you don't 'think' they do much, you mean you've observed the difference as not much or you have watched hours & hours of replay and clearly don't see the hit & run being put on more or less often depending on where you have it set.

Because I remember I had Brett's set just one notch high and he hit & run with terrible results in a playoff game, where the runners took off and the outfielder made an outstanding catch and doubled up not one runner off the bag but...TWO. I would have won that game if the ball dropped in, too ()....and it was sort of an accident that Brett's hit & run slider was notched up.

Until OOTPB starts collecting stats on HIT and Run attempts, sacrifice attempts, bunt for attempts, taking extra base attempts, inside the park home runs, triple plays etc etc....you will never actually know

I have no clue if my strategy settings have any effect. After about 10 minutes of reading games logs, I got frustrated and gave up..
Just hoping i don't die before enhancements to the game are made

[One Great Matrix]

Actually I just started work on it...my playoff spot is kind of cemented so I just started throwing some of them up and am going to watch the replays. I'll update if you want.

[elutz31]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

In theory I would think "avoid K" would be the critical rating. A strikeout would be the worst possible result, since it would lead to a strike-em-out / throw-em-out double play very often.

In practice though, after running some tests and trying various settings with the hit and run sliders....I don't think they really do much at all. My best guess is that since they are out of fashion in today's MLB (thanks to the prevalence of HR power) the LTMs only allot a very small number of hit&run plays to each league/season. So overall they end up having a negligible effect on gameplay even if you crank the slider way up.

If the game is using 2010 as it's template I doubt today's MLB has much to do with how effective the sliders are. The link below is a hit and run study done from 2003-2011 during the season of the game's template. The LA Angels attempted a hit and run 6.4%(536 out of 8319 or 60 a year) of the time during a hit and run opportunity. They were the top team in the league over that span. Boston were on the bottom at 1.8%. So if the average is 4% and each adjustment of the slide bar is say 10% if it's maxed out you're 50% more you're talking 6% of the time will they attempt a hit and run. I have no idea if 10% per adjustment is accurate. I'm just using it for the example. Basically at 4% a hit and run will take place about every 4 1/2 games and at 6% 1 will happen around every 3 games. Also does the simulation show you an animation of a guy swinging and missing while a guy is stealing a base or does it just look like a stolen base attempt with no knowledge of whether it was a failed hit and run attempt? That could affect trying to track it manually.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...s-no-accident/

[allenciox]

I think the best way to resolve this would be to use the simulation module for ootp. Set up two identical teams and just vary the strategy settings for each so that one has the hit and run slider all the way to the right and the other to the left. This will give a baseline as to how effective it is.

Then vary the abilities of the two teams looking at power, avoidk, contact, stealing, speed, etc. and see how that affects hit and run ability.

I think this is far better than extrapolating from real MLB baseball as there is no guarantee that they will behave the same.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by allenciox

I think the best way to resolve this would be to use the simulation module for ootp. Set up two identical teams and just vary the strategy settings for each so that one has the hit and run slider all the way to the right and the other to the left. This will give a baseline as to how effective it is.

Then vary the abilities of the two teams looking at power, avoidk, contact, stealing, speed, etc. and see how that affects hit and run ability.

I think this is far better than extrapolating from real MLB baseball as there is no guarantee that they will behave the same.

That is pretty close to what I tried to do previously, and found no meaningful difference in results. Here is the thread: https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boa...d.php?t=299086

It's a slighlty different question I was attempting to answer there, but I think the results are still pretty telling.

To complicate matters though, I have also learned that simulation module testing results don't always necessarily translate to PT. For example, catcher defense shows a strong result in those simulations, but doesn't seem to hold up in PT.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by elutz31

If the game is using 2010 as it's template I doubt today's MLB has much to do with how effective the sliders are. The link below is a hit and run study done from 2003-2011 during the season of the game's template. The LA Angels attempted a hit and run 6.4%(536 out of 8319 or 60 a year) of the time during a hit and run opportunity. They were the top team in the league over that span. Boston were on the bottom at 1.8%. So if the average is 4% and each adjustment of the slide bar is say 10% if it's maxed out you're 50% more you're talking 6% of the time will they attempt a hit and run. I have no idea if 10% per adjustment is accurate. I'm just using it for the example. Basically at 4% a hit and run will take place about every 4 1/2 games and at 6% 1 will happen around every 3 games. Also does the simulation show you an animation of a guy swinging and missing while a guy is stealing a base or does it just look like a stolen base attempt with no knowledge of whether it was a failed hit and run attempt? That could affect trying to track it manually.

I think you've kind of illustrated my point, actually. For starters, 2010 is still in today's "era" where hit & runs were still out of fashion, so 2010 compared to 2019 isn't a big deal. If the top team in this era is only attempting 60 a year (one every 3 games or so) that is still super infrequent. I think players jacking that slider up to the max would be hoping for much more frequent hit & runs than once every three games. I sure wish it was possible to at least TRY to execute hit & runs several times per game. Just to see the effect if nothing else.

[Argonaut]

Can the OOTP simulator be run in a historical environment? I know that the historical gurus around here recommend turning up global hit-and-run settings to improve league-wide run total accuracy. So presumably it has some effect, at least in earlier eras.

Perhaps that could be useful to test out for people playing historical OOTP, or if the rumoured tournaments under different eras come about.

After reading that nice hit-and-run article posted above, I think I would lean to these types of players to turn up the slider for:

High CON
Low POW
Low EYE (if high EYE, would rather take a walk)
Low GAP (if high GAP, would rather shoot for a double)
Fast SPD (presumably would get more infield hits)
Groundball Hitters (Flyball Hitters could be a disaster)

So basically someone like the Gold Ichiro. Not sure if he's a Groundball Hitter though, can't remember. Probably a Line Drive Hitter would be OK.

[One Great Matrix]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

Can the OOTP simulator be run in a historical environment? I know that the historical gurus around here recommend turning up global hit-and-run settings to improve league-wide run total accuracy. So presumably it has some effect, at least in earlier eras.

Perhaps that could be useful to test out for people playing historical OOTP, or if the rumoured tournaments under different eras come about.

After reading that nice hit-and-run article posted above, I think I would lean to these types of players to turn up the slider for:

High CON
Low POW
Low EYE (if high EYE, would rather take a walk)
Low GAP (if high GAP, would rather shoot for a double)
Fast SPD (presumably would get more infield hits)
Groundball Hitters (Flyball Hitters could be a disaster)

So basically someone like the Gold Ichiro. Not sure if he's a Groundball Hitter though, can't remember. Probably a Line Drive Hitter would be OK.

Alright. So far, here is the very little I've learned.

There seems to be a little truth at least to the game accounting for ...sabermetrics not loving the idea of risking a definitive swing on a particular pitch & hoping for contact with mixed results whether they make contact or not...
What I mean is yes I've had the sliders up up and still not seen a hit & run at every other opportunity say, to try and get the runners a headstart.

But....I have also found that if you set....either the globaland/or an individual player's for more than neutral when it comes to hit & run that in the course of ...2 series, you will see it executed or yes, not executed, player will miss I believe...unless that's just a swing and miss on a steal.

So set it to green or more if you want to see it happen ...not all the time but maybe a reasonable amount of the time based on pretty good logic by the OOTP team.

And.....yes, watch out for the swing & miss or the line drive at 'em, or [li'l angry] the flyyyyy ball to right field where the runners, even though they were off before contact, don't have the sense to know they can go stationery & then continue if the ball drops in... And like the old Dodgers owner [Branch Rickey] said, you will be very pleased, when the hit & run works. It's just not a very safe bet.

I don't know about low gap. High gap is nice on a hit & run guaranteeing that even Boggs gets around from 1st on a dooble. I agreed with your other assessments, Argonaut.

Have fun with it, as George Brett said, you want to make it a science but better an art.

[Argonaut]

I tried max hit and run slider on my Gold Ichiro last season. His batting average was noticeably worse. From a normal season of .300+ to hitting around .275.

I don't know if it's a coincidence, but it's definitely made me leery of ever using the hit and run.

I've got Buck Ewing in the order before Ichiro, so I'm thinking I'd rather go for the steal and a normal hit rather than the hit and run.

[One Great Matrix]

I have NO idea, but it might have been. My Ichiro, although it is the record bereaking 74 but .382 MLB that season-hitting (above avg. contact vs. lefts and rights alike, don't know how compares to 82), but his Perfect BA against some of the best pitchers ever for the most part every game naturally has ranged from a whopping .379 to a dismal .198 over any significant # of PA's, (over 240 PAs= .319, .280, .268...haven't touched hit & run)