Results from 100 packs

Orcin · 03-29-2019, 04:29 PM

I have opened exactly 100 packs since last Friday, including my starter packs and free gold pack. The "expected" stats below include one extra gold card to compensate for the gold pack, and the rest were regular packs.

Name: packs100.jpg
Views: 1007
Size: 24.5 KB

Name: packs100.jpg
Views: 1007
Size: 24.5 KB

My results were very close to the advertised odds. I came up a little short on silvers, but I got two extra golds. There were 212 duplicate cards in the 600 total. Of the duplicates, 184 were iron so it was very easy to sell those and buy 184 different iron cards on the AH to fill out my collection for very little extra cost.

I received 79 non-Live cards, which was 30.8% of the bronze and above total (compared to the 30% advertised).

Notable cards in the 100 packs.

Perfect Chris Sale
Diamond Gerrit Cole
Diamond Blake Treinen
Diamond Trevor Story x 2 (bad luck there)

Golds:
89 Rizzo
89 Carrasco
88 Piazza
88 Gregorius
87 Minter
86 Conforto
84 Soto
83 Albies
82 Marte
82 J.Hicks x 2
81 Whitson
80 Taillon
80 Price
80 Lamb

The current auction value of the gold cards and above is 86,000pp, so I probably could break even on this 100 pack bundle by selling all of the cards.

I plan to play the team that was formed from these 100 packs for a while and see how far it gets me. I was very slow to open the packs, so I used the original 42 cards in the entry pool and started in Iron level. The complete team is doing very well there with about half of the golds on the bench.

mcdog512 · 03-29-2019, 04:47 PM

Very interesting stats.

Treinen will last a real long time in your bullpen. I keep almost buying him in the AH but I don't want to go to quickly with the upgrades.

Orcin · 03-29-2019, 04:51 PM

Frankly, Treinen may be the only card that will play all the way to perfect. Sale and Rizzo are possibly perfect-worthy too as role players, but I would not recommend this as a strategy for those that are trying to build a perfect leagues team on a budget. I did it because I wanted to jump start a collection and I was willing to gamble.

mcdog512 · 03-29-2019, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

Frankly, Treinen may be the only card that will play all the way to perfect. Sale and Rizzo are possibly perfect-worthy too as role players, but I would not recommend this as a strategy for those that are trying to build a perfect leagues team on a budget. I did it because I wanted to jump start a collection and I was willing to gamble.

Yea, I agree on those players. Doing collections will be interesting because already I am seeing Iron and Bronze cards going for a very inflated price.

Calvert98 · 03-29-2019, 05:24 PM

Thanks for posting this Orcin.

I mentioned in another thread that I am playing PT for the first time, while waiting for the post Opening Day patch to start my MLB Universe.

I used that starter 1,000 PT points that you are awarded when you start the game to buy my first ever pack, and picked-up... you guessed it: Chris Sale.

Orcin · 07-06-2019, 08:51 PM

I have now sold all 600 cards from these 100 packs. I received 127,893 points for the 600 cards, so a profit of nearly 28K on my 100K investment. Plus I used a lot of the cards on my way up to perfect.

Most of the sales (almost 400 cards) occurred over the past few weeks after missions were launched. My highest sales were Chris Sale at 24K right before he dropped below 100, several Live diamond cards at 4-6K, and a gold Mike Piazza at 3100. I did not sell any of the bronze and iron mission cards over 200-300 points; I just wanted to move them out fast.

I sold some of the cards after they had increased in OVR, but I held too long on Treinen and a couple of other drops. Overall, I had a net of 40 iron cards that moved up at least one tier, along with some bronze that moved to silver.

I have not opened another pack since this first week binge.

gemini615 · 07-06-2019, 09:29 PM

I've opened 169 packs (not counting the starter packs) and have pulled
1 Perfect- Sale
4 Diamonds- Turner, Hartnett, Machado, Realmuto (gold now)
13 Golds- Gallo (diamond now)
53 Silvers

I haven't been keeping detailed stats like you have, but take my pack openings for whatever they're worth. I'm sure you can use the info.

Goliathus · 07-07-2019, 11:04 AM

I have kept many of my opened packs screenshot for both PT19 and PT20. When I am in the mood to count cards from those screen and analyze them, I will be posting here.

Edit: Checking the screenshot folder, I realized I have completely abandoned tracking two of my PT19 teams, so the data could be skewed.

Ty Cobb · 07-07-2019, 12:27 PM

Interesting numbers. In anecdotal study, I've been thinking that silver cards show up far too little. Your numbers confirm to me that I might not be dreaming. This might be an issue to explore...

atabakin · 07-07-2019, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ty Cobb

Interesting numbers. In anecdotal study, I've been thinking that silver cards show up far too little. Your numbers confirm to me that I might not be dreaming. This might be an issue to explore...

Gemini posted that he got 53 silvers in 169 packs, which is more than one would expect statistically. It all evens out.

Ty Cobb · 07-07-2019, 03:23 PM

I hadn't seen that post. In my experience, it seems I draw more gold than silver from packs. Perhaps I'm just blessed with good fortune?

atabakin · 07-07-2019, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ty Cobb

I hadn't seen that post. In my experience, it seems I draw more gold than silver from packs. Perhaps I'm just blessed with good fortune?

Or, if you're like me, you just don't get excited about silver and thus have a harder time recalling those cards.

Neezer · 07-08-2019, 12:06 PM

Ive done multiple 100 pack runs where I got 0 perfects and 0 Diamonds, only a few golds and rest garbage.

Drezik · 07-08-2019, 01:44 PM

Same - I've also done some where I got 3 perfects before too. I think in the end it all evens out.

Charlatan · 07-08-2019, 03:17 PM

Anecdotally I will say I've noticed on my packs-only team I seem to get fewer silvers than I expect. I will collate the numbers in a couple of weeks and see if the results bear out that opinion.

Of course that same team opened 5 packs on Sunday and got 3 Diamonds and a gold. So maybe I'm getting Diamonds instead of Silvers.. I'll take that!

a5ehren · 07-09-2019, 09:33 PM

I was going say that I feel like something was juicing the drop rates because I've been on an insane run the last 2 weeks, but your numbers look good.

Tonight I pulled a Perfect Scherzer and a Peak Frank Robinson in just 10 packs, and last week I got a Peak Johnny Bench (100). Not bad for F2P.

DawnBTVS · 07-19-2019, 08:27 AM

Interesting stuff, Orcin. I just opened 213 Packs and although I didn't tabulate the actual percentage breakdown I got the following 'upper tier'... maybe you can figure out the breakdown for the top end at least?

100: 3 - 1 Historical Legend Peak, 2 Live (This seems extreme given the 1:1000 IIRC). They were Peak Dennis Eckersley, Cody Bellinger Live, and Nolan Arenado Live
Diamond 90s: 3 - 1 Unsung Heroes, 2 Live. They were Sad Sam Jones Unsung Heroes, Gerrit Cole Live, and Josh Donaldson Live
Gold 80s: 15
Silver 70s: 54 (Had multiple duplicates including 3 Justus Sheffields). A decent amount were live players who were in that 77-79 range who may end up Gold down the road.

TroyF · 07-19-2019, 02:29 PM

I have 3 pack only teams. 1 team has went to diamond, 1 to gold, the other in silver. I haven't counted the packs, but every 1,000 points is another pack. I'm going to guess that between the winning the title (once) and all of the other stuff, I probably have opened 250 packs.

Not one perfect between the three teams. Have got some diamond legends (notably a 98 Randy Johnson), but that's been the best card. Haven't looked at my teams a lot this week. Probably have another 7 or 8 packs when I get home tonight. Not expecting anything.

One Great Matrix · 07-22-2019, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

I have opened exactly 100 packs since last Friday, including my starter packs and free gold pack. The "expected" stats below include one extra gold card to compensate for the gold pack, and the rest were regular packs.

Attachment 615700

My results were very close to the advertised odds. I came up a little short on silvers, but I got two extra golds. There were 212 duplicate cards in the 600 total. Of the duplicates, 184 were iron so it was very easy to sell those and buy 184 different iron cards on the AH to fill out my collection for very little extra cost.

I received 79 non-Live cards, which was 30.8% of the bronze and above total (compared to the 30% advertised).

Notable cards in the 100 packs.

Perfect Chris Sale
Diamond Gerrit Cole
Diamond Blake Treinen
Diamond Trevor Story x 2 (bad luck there)

Golds:
89 Rizzo
89 Carrasco
88 Piazza
88 Gregorius
87 Minter
86 Conforto
84 Soto
83 Albies
82 Marte
82 J.Hicks x 2
81 Whitson
80 Taillon
80 Price
80 Lamb

The current auction value of the gold cards and above is 86,000pp, so I probably could break even on this 100 pack bundle by selling all of the cards.

I plan to play the team that was formed from these 100 packs for a while and see how far it gets me. I was very slow to open the packs, so I used the original 42 cards in the entry pool and started in Iron level. The complete team is doing very well there with about half of the golds on the bench.

Fine distribution 80-89 but just about all LIVES.
I suppose that's fine and how it is, so good share.

My personal experience, bronzes, (even with the one guaranteed are generously dished out)...I had a string one time opening multiple packs where 10 in a row were 6 bronze, 1 silver, 1 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze, then it finally ended, and gold and diamond have showed up as advertised but I technically you know should have gotten a perfect by now but...it's odds not an exact ordering, the deck is shuffled.

humboldt1498 · 07-22-2019, 06:37 PM

Just started tracking my pulls for gold cards and above. 181 packs opened. Results so far:

1 perfect (live), or one every 1,086 cards
9 diamond (66.67% live), or one every 121 cards
24 gold (66.67% live), or one every 45 cards

I am also tracking pack value based on auction house prices/quick sell for lower end cards. The gold, diamond, and perfect cards are worth 248,048, which is calculated as last 7 days PP at 90%. I also estimated iron, bronze, and silver cards to be worth 16,290 PP, so my total PP for 181 packs is roughly 264,374. Pack pulls seems surprisingly plus EV, but you need to open a lot as this is highly skewed by high end pulls.

03-29-2019, 04:29 PM	#1
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,884	Results from 100 packs I have opened exactly 100 packs since last Friday, including my starter packs and free gold pack. The "expected" stats below include one extra gold card to compensate for the gold pack, and the rest were regular packs. My results were very close to the advertised odds. I came up a little short on silvers, but I got two extra golds. There were 212 duplicate cards in the 600 total. Of the duplicates, 184 were iron so it was very easy to sell those and buy 184 different iron cards on the AH to fill out my collection for very little extra cost. I received 79 non-Live cards, which was 30.8% of the bronze and above total (compared to the 30% advertised). Notable cards in the 100 packs. Perfect Chris Sale Diamond Gerrit Cole Diamond Blake Treinen Diamond Trevor Story x 2 (bad luck there) Golds: 89 Rizzo 89 Carrasco 88 Piazza 88 Gregorius 87 Minter 86 Conforto 84 Soto 83 Albies 82 Marte 82 J.Hicks x 2 81 Whitson 80 Taillon 80 Price 80 Lamb The current auction value of the gold cards and above is 86,000pp, so I probably could break even on this 100 pack bundle by selling all of the cards. I plan to play the team that was formed from these 100 packs for a while and see how far it gets me. I was very slow to open the packs, so I used the original 42 cards in the entry pool and started in Iron level. The complete team is doing very well there with about half of the golds on the bench. Last edited by Orcin; 03-29-2019 at 04:33 PM.

07-06-2019, 09:29 PM	#7
gemini615 All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 671	I've opened 169 packs (not counting the starter packs) and have pulled 1 Perfect- Sale 4 Diamonds- Turner, Hartnett, Machado, Realmuto (gold now) 13 Golds- Gallo (diamond now) 53 Silvers I haven't been keeping detailed stats like you have, but take my pack openings for whatever they're worth. I'm sure you can use the info. __________________ Hiram College Terriers Blog "The Dog Park"

07-07-2019, 11:04 AM	#8
Goliathus Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 449	I have kept many of my opened packs screenshot for both PT19 and PT20. When I am in the mood to count cards from those screen and analyze them, I will be posting here. Edit: Checking the screenshot folder, I realized I have completely abandoned tracking two of my PT19 teams, so the data could be skewed. Last edited by Goliathus; 07-07-2019 at 11:06 AM.

07-07-2019, 12:27 PM	#9
Ty Cobb Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Grayling, MI Posts: 4,622	Interesting numbers. In anecdotal study, I've been thinking that silver cards show up far too little. Your numbers confirm to me that I might not be dreaming. This might be an issue to explore... __________________ "You could not live with your own failure. Where did that bring you? Back to me." Thanos

07-07-2019, 03:23 PM	#11
Ty Cobb Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Grayling, MI Posts: 4,622	I hadn't seen that post. In my experience, it seems I draw more gold than silver from packs. Perhaps I'm just blessed with good fortune? __________________ "You could not live with your own failure. Where did that bring you? Back to me." Thanos

03-29-2019, 04:47 PM	#2
mcdog512 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: Pack Robert Gibson; November 9, 1935 – October 2, 2020 Posts: 2,339	Very interesting stats. Treinen will last a real long time in your bullpen. I keep almost buying him in the AH but I don't want to go to quickly with the upgrades.

03-29-2019, 04:51 PM	#3
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,884	Frankly, Treinen may be the only card that will play all the way to perfect. Sale and Rizzo are possibly perfect-worthy too as role players, but I would not recommend this as a strategy for those that are trying to build a perfect leagues team on a budget. I did it because I wanted to jump start a collection and I was willing to gamble.

03-29-2019, 05:24 PM	#5
Calvert98 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 579	Thanks for posting this Orcin. I mentioned in another thread that I am playing PT for the first time, while waiting for the post Opening Day patch to start my MLB Universe. I used that starter 1,000 PT points that you are awarded when you start the game to buy my first ever pack, and picked-up... you guessed it: Chris Sale.

07-06-2019, 08:51 PM	#6
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,884	I have now sold all 600 cards from these 100 packs. I received 127,893 points for the 600 cards, so a profit of nearly 28K on my 100K investment. Plus I used a lot of the cards on my way up to perfect. Most of the sales (almost 400 cards) occurred over the past few weeks after missions were launched. My highest sales were Chris Sale at 24K right before he dropped below 100, several Live diamond cards at 4-6K, and a gold Mike Piazza at 3100. I did not sell any of the bronze and iron mission cards over 200-300 points; I just wanted to move them out fast. I sold some of the cards after they had increased in OVR, but I held too long on Treinen and a couple of other drops. Overall, I had a net of 40 iron cards that moved up at least one tier, along with some bronze that moved to silver. I have not opened another pack since this first week binge.

07-08-2019, 12:06 PM	#13
Neezer Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 115	Ive done multiple 100 pack runs where I got 0 perfects and 0 Diamonds, only a few golds and rest garbage.

07-08-2019, 01:44 PM	#14
Drezik Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 106	Same - I've also done some where I got 3 perfects before too. I think in the end it all evens out. __________________

07-08-2019, 03:17 PM	#15
Charlatan All Star Starter Join Date: May 2006 Location: Leesburg, VA Posts: 1,492	Anecdotally I will say I've noticed on my packs-only team I seem to get fewer silvers than I expect. I will collate the numbers in a couple of weeks and see if the results bear out that opinion. Of course that same team opened 5 packs on Sunday and got 3 Diamonds and a gold. So maybe I'm getting Diamonds instead of Silvers.. I'll take that!

07-09-2019, 09:33 PM	#16
a5ehren Bat Boy Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 14	I was going say that I feel like something was juicing the drop rates because I've been on an insane run the last 2 weeks, but your numbers look good. Tonight I pulled a Perfect Scherzer and a Peak Frank Robinson in just 10 packs, and last week I got a Peak Johnny Bench (100). Not bad for F2P.

07-19-2019, 08:27 AM	#17
DawnBTVS Major Leagues Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: USA Posts: 416	Interesting stuff, Orcin. I just opened 213 Packs and although I didn't tabulate the actual percentage breakdown I got the following 'upper tier'... maybe you can figure out the breakdown for the top end at least? 100: 3 - 1 Historical Legend Peak, 2 Live (This seems extreme given the 1:1000 IIRC). They were Peak Dennis Eckersley, Cody Bellinger Live, and Nolan Arenado Live Diamond 90s: 3 - 1 Unsung Heroes, 2 Live. They were Sad Sam Jones Unsung Heroes, Gerrit Cole Live, and Josh Donaldson Live Gold 80s: 15 Silver 70s: 54 (Had multiple duplicates including 3 Justus Sheffields). A decent amount were live players who were in that 77-79 range who may end up Gold down the road. __________________ Last edited by DawnBTVS; 07-19-2019 at 08:32 AM.

07-19-2019, 02:29 PM	#18
TroyF Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 95	I have 3 pack only teams. 1 team has went to diamond, 1 to gold, the other in silver. I haven't counted the packs, but every 1,000 points is another pack. I'm going to guess that between the winning the title (once) and all of the other stuff, I probably have opened 250 packs. Not one perfect between the three teams. Have got some diamond legends (notably a 98 Randy Johnson), but that's been the best card. Haven't looked at my teams a lot this week. Probably have another 7 or 8 packs when I get home tonight. Not expecting anything.

07-22-2019, 06:37 PM	#20
humboldt1498 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 208	Just started tracking my pulls for gold cards and above. 181 packs opened. Results so far: 1 perfect (live), or one every 1,086 cards 9 diamond (66.67% live), or one every 121 cards 24 gold (66.67% live), or one every 45 cards I am also tracking pack value based on auction house prices/quick sell for lower end cards. The gold, diamond, and perfect cards are worth 248,048, which is calculated as last 7 days PP at 90%. I also estimated iron, bronze, and silver cards to be worth 16,290 PP, so my total PP for 181 packs is roughly 264,374. Pack pulls seems surprisingly plus EV, but you need to open a lot as this is highly skewed by high end pulls.