Do cards "lock in" during a season?

Cheesehead1964 · 06-16-2019, 01:16 PM

I check player stats daily - AVG, ERA, OPS, etc. - and it seems like after a day of game (one sixth of the season), cards seem produce pretty similar stats the rest of the year.

A player may be having an off season - maybe a hitter's batting average is well below typical average or a pitcher's ERA is higher than usual. I don't often see a player's performance change that much through the season. Then they'll bounce back the next season - but again, not huge change from beginning to end.

Anyone else see this? Or am I crazy? I just figure it's a game mechanic to balance a set amount of PP to be distributed or whatever...

Orcin · 06-16-2019, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheesehead1964

I check player stats daily - AVG, ERA, OPS, etc. - and it seems like after a day of game (one sixth of the season), cards seem produce pretty similar stats the rest of the year.

A player may be having an off season - maybe a hitter's batting average is well below typical average or a pitcher's ERA is higher than usual. I don't often see a player's performance change that much through the season. Then they'll bounce back the next season - but again, not huge change from beginning to end.

Anyone else see this? Or am I crazy? I just figure it's a game mechanic to balance a set amount of PP to be distributed or whatever...

I don't see this at all. I have players start hot and then slump, and vice versa.

Findest2001 · 06-16-2019, 03:01 PM

I notice a lot of up and down but I've also noticed some of what you describe. In short I think it is pretty indicative of a reasonable facsimile of RL.

Charlatan · 06-16-2019, 06:24 PM

I track the OPS+ of my team's lineup during the season. My Annandale team had all 3 outfielders start with OPS+ of around 60-70. By the end of the year they were 101/111/85. So they all 3 definitely brought it up.

On the other hand, Tony Gwynn on one of my teams started with an OPS+ of 70-ish and finished there (he hit... get ready for it.... 265!! what the...).

So I gotta say it happens with some players an not for others. And our brain, in a never ending quest to find patterns (even where there isn't one) will try to convince us that we see a pattern when we notice the player who stinks all year.

Bottom line: I don't think this is a thing.

06-16-2019, 01:16 PM	#1
Cheesehead1964 Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 429	Do cards "lock in" during a season? I check player stats daily - AVG, ERA, OPS, etc. - and it seems like after a day of game (one sixth of the season), cards seem produce pretty similar stats the rest of the year. A player may be having an off season - maybe a hitter's batting average is well below typical average or a pitcher's ERA is higher than usual. I don't often see a player's performance change that much through the season. Then they'll bounce back the next season - but again, not huge change from beginning to end. Anyone else see this? Or am I crazy? I just figure it's a game mechanic to balance a set amount of PP to be distributed or whatever...

06-16-2019, 03:01 PM	#3
Findest2001 All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Boston Posts: 960	I notice a lot of up and down but I've also noticed some of what you describe. In short I think it is pretty indicative of a reasonable facsimile of RL. __________________

06-16-2019, 06:24 PM	#4
Charlatan All Star Starter Join Date: May 2006 Location: Leesburg, VA Posts: 1,492	I track the OPS+ of my team's lineup during the season. My Annandale team had all 3 outfielders start with OPS+ of around 60-70. By the end of the year they were 101/111/85. So they all 3 definitely brought it up. On the other hand, Tony Gwynn on one of my teams started with an OPS+ of 70-ish and finished there (he hit... get ready for it.... 265!! what the...). So I gotta say it happens with some players an not for others. And our brain, in a never ending quest to find patterns (even where there isn't one) will try to convince us that we see a pattern when we notice the player who stinks all year. Bottom line: I don't think this is a thing.