Question on Draft Pool

james17 · 02-06-2019, 10:02 PM

The draft pool for the amateur draft has been radically changed. I have only two 5 star and three 4 star players available plus a decent number of 3 stars and below.

Just trying to get a feel for this. Have any of you edited the draft pool to make more 5 and 4 star players or are you just living with the default draft pools. I have a fictional league based on modern day MLB and am torn between just leaving the draft pool alone as weak as it is or creating more fictional players with some higher ratings and adding them to the pool.

What do you guys with fictional leagues do?

james17 · 02-07-2019, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by james17

The draft pool for the amateur draft has been radically changed. I have only two 5 star and three 4 star players available plus a decent number of 3 stars and below.

Just trying to get a feel for this. Have any of you edited the draft pool to make more 5 and 4 star players or are you just living with the default draft pools. I have a fictional league based on modern day MLB and am torn between just leaving the draft pool alone as weak as it is or creating more fictional players with some higher ratings and adding them to the pool.

What do you guys with fictional leagues do?

Hasn't anybody else run into this issue?

BirdWatcher · 02-07-2019, 04:28 PM

My recollection is that overall and potential ratings were re-worked a bit in OOTP19 and that this meant a bit more of a bell curve with fewer 5 rated players in general. (I was really hoping that someone with better information than I have or can recollect would respond to this, but I feel bad that you are being left hanging here.)

What you describe is basically how the draft classes look in my fictional save. Maybe 1 or 2 5-star potential players, a handful of 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 potential players, a decent array of 3 star potentials, etc. But I think if you look at the skills specific ratings which really will dictate performance, it should be pretty much business as usual. My sense is that the ultimate outcome works fine. You will get some superstars, including of course some pleasant surprises, some high potential busts, a lot of average players who might play in the big leagues anywhere from 1 year to 15 years,etc.

I do add a few players to my drafts most years through a process where I like to create relatives of current or former players, but these are almost never superstar level and many don't even get out of the minors.

Perhaps others have experienced something different, but my sense is that if you play it out and trust the program, it will all work out the way you want it to without you having to manipulate the draft pools.

stealofhome · 02-07-2019, 04:30 PM

I have noticed this as well and tried to create a system by editing the player creation modifiers to keep it all consistent, though it never came out to be good enough for me. I'm keeping a close eye on it with my fictional league to see if I notice a true talent drop-off or if it is just something with the way the ratings are calculated.

james17 · 02-07-2019, 06:15 PM

Well, I looked at the numerical ratings for batting and power potential and they are down too. The highest potential for contact is only 72 according to my scout who is highly rated.

Now, the list under OSA scouting is much higher across the board. Much like it used to be under my scout. This has left me wondering if OSA is more accurate with the draft pool.

So, in conclusion, I am totally confused. ��

WIUPIKE · 02-07-2019, 06:42 PM

They are all based on relative ratings if I am not mistaking. So with that said there may be only 1 superstar potential in the draft and several all starts, but with the 3 star they are regular everyday MLB players.

james17 · 02-07-2019, 06:55 PM

In my draft pool there is only one 4.5 player, four 4 star, three 3.5, and nine 3 star players. Then there are 625 players at 2.5 and below. Is that distrubution typical? If so I guess there will be a big dropoff in talent in the next few years in my universe.

I sure wish they hadn't changed this because my league is in year 2028 and I play out the games. Since previous drafts were so bountiful, there is a good distribution of players at 3-4.5 stars. That I suppose that will degrade from now on.

BirdWatcher · 02-07-2019, 07:40 PM

I hope that someone with far more expertise than I have can assuage your fears, but I do not believe that you will experience a drop-off (other than normal fluctuations as also happen IRL) in talent in your leagues.

I believe these ratings changes are more about scouting changes that were initiated in OOTP19 and do not negatively impact the underlying talent pool.

james17 · 02-07-2019, 08:56 PM

Maybe someone from OOTP will respond...

damientheomen3 · 02-07-2019, 09:33 PM

OOTP was changed a few years ago to generate less players as generational level talents straight out of the gate for fictional leagues with a higher chance of random swings in talent that make it harder to judge a player's potential straight out of the gate, making the game more realistic. Couple that with the apparent change to the way star ratings are generated in 19 and draft pools are going to look weaker.

Having said that, StealOfHome had an incredible thread running where he dilligently tested the drop-off of ratings over time and player creation modifiers to combat it (I don't remember if it was for draft prospects or major leaguers) but as he said in here he wasn't able to reach a conclusive point with it. What I've seen from many OOTP league sims (not so many in 19 as over the recent years in general) is that there's going to be a drop-off in player attributes, stats and such from, say, season 1 to season 20 of a league, but from there the game does a good job of remaining pretty steady overall. I know a lot of veteran members fast-sim ~20 seasons and then clear the record books as a result of this.

james17 · 02-07-2019, 09:53 PM

Well at least I know now that something was indeed changed to make the incoming talent pool weaker and/or harder to assess. I know it's a big change in my league BUT I am only in year 14 so maybe it will shake out as time goes on.

BirdWatcher · 02-07-2019, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by damientheomen3

OOTP was changed a few years ago to generate less players as generational level talents straight out of the gate for fictional leagues with a higher chance of random swings in talent that make it harder to judge a player's potential straight out of the gate, making the game more realistic. Couple that with the apparent change to the way star ratings are generated in 19 and draft pools are going to look weaker.

Having said that, StealOfHome had an incredible thread running where he dilligently tested the drop-off of ratings over time and player creation modifiers to combat it (I don't remember if it was for draft prospects or major leaguers) but as he said in here he wasn't able to reach a conclusive point with it. What I've seen from many OOTP league sims (not so many in 19 as over the recent years in general) is that there's going to be a drop-off in player attributes, stats and such from, say, season 1 to season 20 of a league, but from there the game does a good job of remaining pretty steady overall. I know a lot of veteran members fast-sim ~20 seasons and then clear the record books as a result of this.

But isn't it also true (in my experience, it is) that the inaugural draft will create a good number of superstar players, many of whom will still have 10-15 year careers (and some more) left and therefore you don't wan't those early drafts to have too many potential superstars or your league would be over-saturated with above-average to great players?

damientheomen3 · 02-07-2019, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

But isn't it also true (in my experience, it is) that the inaugural draft will create a good number of superstar players, many of whom will still have 10-15 year careers (and some more) left and therefore you don't wan't those early drafts to have too many potential superstars or your league would be over-saturated with above-average to great players?

Arguably, but at the same time some of the top-flight initial older players are likely going to drop off by the time those first batches of draft players are ready to play. I do, for the most part, share your opinion though. I often play with scouting at 100% accurate and when I pump up creation modifiers I often see things like outfielders with 8 contact and 6 power (out of 10) able to be signed in FA to cheap contracts. It's very hard to find a balance.

sabrtoothtiger · 02-08-2019, 09:58 AM

If anything the overall star potential ratings may be still overstated. For those that frequent fangraphs they have a list of the past and future drafts where they assign a "fv" future value to future/past prospects. Here is the link https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...1&type=0&team=

What you will notice is how few players are are given potentials over 55. In last years draft on Mandrigal and Mize were part of this group, with only 12 players ranked above 45+. In the previous year 17, there were only 8 players who met this mark. 5 star potential probably translates into 65+ potential.

The point to be illustrated here is how few elite players there are in each draft. This is not to say that potentials won't change after some development however.

Rather than complaining, we should be complimenting the OOTP development team of bringing a sense of additional realism to the game.

02-06-2019, 10:02 PM	#1
james17 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,305	Question on Draft Pool The draft pool for the amateur draft has been radically changed. I have only two 5 star and three 4 star players available plus a decent number of 3 stars and below. Just trying to get a feel for this. Have any of you edited the draft pool to make more 5 and 4 star players or are you just living with the default draft pools. I have a fictional league based on modern day MLB and am torn between just leaving the draft pool alone as weak as it is or creating more fictional players with some higher ratings and adding them to the pool. What do you guys with fictional leagues do?

02-07-2019, 04:30 PM	#4
stealofhome Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 2,282	I have noticed this as well and tried to create a system by editing the player creation modifiers to keep it all consistent, though it never came out to be good enough for me. I'm keeping a close eye on it with my fictional league to see if I notice a true talent drop-off or if it is just something with the way the ratings are calculated. __________________ OOTP Resources \| - \| Stealofhome's Fictional Feeder Leagues and MLB Extravaganza

02-07-2019, 06:15 PM	#5
james17 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,305	Well, I looked at the numerical ratings for batting and power potential and they are down too. The highest potential for contact is only 72 according to my scout who is highly rated. Now, the list under OSA scouting is much higher across the board. Much like it used to be under my scout. This has left me wondering if OSA is more accurate with the draft pool. So, in conclusion, I am totally confused. �� Last edited by james17; 02-07-2019 at 06:44 PM.

02-08-2019, 09:58 AM	#14
sabrtoothtiger Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 137	If anything the overall star potential ratings may be still overstated. For those that frequent fangraphs they have a list of the past and future drafts where they assign a "fv" future value to future/past prospects. Here is the link https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...1&type=0&team= What you will notice is how few players are are given potentials over 55. In last years draft on Mandrigal and Mize were part of this group, with only 12 players ranked above 45+. In the previous year 17, there were only 8 players who met this mark. 5 star potential probably translates into 65+ potential. The point to be illustrated here is how few elite players there are in each draft. This is not to say that potentials won't change after some development however. Rather than complaining, we should be complimenting the OOTP development team of bringing a sense of additional realism to the game. Last edited by sabrtoothtiger; 02-08-2019 at 10:00 AM.

02-07-2019, 04:28 PM	#3
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,263	My recollection is that overall and potential ratings were re-worked a bit in OOTP19 and that this meant a bit more of a bell curve with fewer 5 rated players in general. (I was really hoping that someone with better information than I have or can recollect would respond to this, but I feel bad that you are being left hanging here.) What you describe is basically how the draft classes look in my fictional save. Maybe 1 or 2 5-star potential players, a handful of 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 potential players, a decent array of 3 star potentials, etc. But I think if you look at the skills specific ratings which really will dictate performance, it should be pretty much business as usual. My sense is that the ultimate outcome works fine. You will get some superstars, including of course some pleasant surprises, some high potential busts, a lot of average players who might play in the big leagues anywhere from 1 year to 15 years,etc. I do add a few players to my drafts most years through a process where I like to create relatives of current or former players, but these are almost never superstar level and many don't even get out of the minors. Perhaps others have experienced something different, but my sense is that if you play it out and trust the program, it will all work out the way you want it to without you having to manipulate the draft pools.

02-07-2019, 06:42 PM	#6
WIUPIKE All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Nashville Area Posts: 1,272	They are all based on relative ratings if I am not mistaking. So with that said there may be only 1 superstar potential in the draft and several all starts, but with the 3 star they are regular everyday MLB players.

02-07-2019, 06:55 PM	#7
james17 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,305	In my draft pool there is only one 4.5 player, four 4 star, three 3.5, and nine 3 star players. Then there are 625 players at 2.5 and below. Is that distrubution typical? If so I guess there will be a big dropoff in talent in the next few years in my universe. I sure wish they hadn't changed this because my league is in year 2028 and I play out the games. Since previous drafts were so bountiful, there is a good distribution of players at 3-4.5 stars. That I suppose that will degrade from now on.

02-07-2019, 07:40 PM	#8
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,263	I hope that someone with far more expertise than I have can assuage your fears, but I do not believe that you will experience a drop-off (other than normal fluctuations as also happen IRL) in talent in your leagues. I believe these ratings changes are more about scouting changes that were initiated in OOTP19 and do not negatively impact the underlying talent pool.

02-07-2019, 08:56 PM	#9
james17 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,305	Maybe someone from OOTP will respond...

02-07-2019, 09:53 PM	#11
james17 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,305	Well at least I know now that something was indeed changed to make the incoming talent pool weaker and/or harder to assess. I know it's a big change in my league BUT I am only in year 14 so maybe it will shake out as time goes on.