Starting pitcher (Syndergaard) immediate drop-off?

[IanIachimoe]

been managing every game for NYM for about 8-9 years, not sure at the moment (@ work). Syndergaard was unreal for about 5-6 of them. won a few WS titles, always in postseason. triple Crown, MVP, etc, etc.



suddenly, in one year & no injury, he fell off a cliff. HUGE drops in stuff & movement, along with individual pitches. he's sitting at 45 now (20-80).


was this due to being overused? 5-6 straight years of postseason pitching? people like Kershaw are older & still dealing in my league, while Noah is unusable. didn't see the fall this quick.



random? I can drop some pics when at home.

[Matt Arnold]

You sure you're talking about Syndergaard, and not real-life Felix Hernandez?

If you're 8-9 years in, then Thor is probably in his early-to-mid 30s. I'm guessing the RNG Gods have decided that he would hit his decline earlier. Always have to be wary of people when they hit the wrong side of 30.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by IanIachimoe

been managing every game for NYM for about 8-9 years, not sure at the moment (@ work). Syndergaard was unreal for about 5-6 of them. won a few WS titles, always in postseason. triple Crown, MVP, etc, etc.



suddenly, in one year & no injury, he fell off a cliff. HUGE drops in stuff & movement, along with individual pitches. he's sitting at 45 now (20-80).


was this due to being overused? 5-6 straight years of postseason pitching? people like Kershaw are older & still dealing in my league, while Noah is unusable. didn't see the fall this quick.



random? I can drop some pics when at home.

It will happen, even to the greatest of the great, through the magic of the player development system. Sometimes it really kicks you in the teeth, like this...He only had a handful of injuries, the worst being elbow inflammation that sidelined him for two months. Every other injury knocked him out for one week or less. First 3 seasons: 58-28, 2.40 ERA, approx total WAR of 27.7, not one year with an ERA+ below 153. Final five seasons: 34-32, 2 SV, 3.77 ERA, approx total WAR of 6.1, not one ERA+ above 123. He was sent to the bullpen permanently at age 31, and out of the game after his age 33 season. Sometimes poop happens. Baseball can be a reeeally cruel game.

This example is from a 63 season random debut league in OOTP16. At that time RL Clayton Kershaw had completed his age 26 season. He came in in the inaugural draft, debuting at age 26, so he was completely at the mercy of the player development system, and the player development gods were clearly not on his side.

[Hacksaw86]

It could be aging, as mentioned above. You can also lower your "Talent Change Randomness" option and that should minimize those big swings in ratings.

[Curve Ball Dave]

It is hardly unusual for a pitcher, no matter how dominant he was when he was younger, to lose his effectiveness once he hits his 30s. We can all make a nice long list of pitchers who, IRL, were great in their 20s only to fall off of a cliff after that. What this anecdote tells me is that OOTP models aging and the effects thereof very well.

[texasmame]

S happens!

[IanIachimoe]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

You sure you're talking about Syndergaard, and not real-life Felix Hernandez?

If you're 8-9 years in, then Thor is probably in his early-to-mid 30s. I'm guessing the RNG Gods have decided that he would hit his decline earlier. Always have to be wary of people when they hit the wrong side of 30.

yes, 32 IIRC & almost useless (while his rival Kershaw is still dominating AT 38). was thinking I overused him, somewhat relieved it's random, it's just too bad I gave him Kershaw money.

30M long reliever only suited for mop up duty the next 3 years unless he retires.

[IanIachimoe]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

It will happen, even to the greatest of the great, through the magic of the player development system. Sometimes it really kicks you in the teeth, like this...He only had a handful of injuries, the worst being elbow inflammation that sidelined him for two months. Every other injury knocked him out for one week or less. First 3 seasons: 58-28, 2.40 ERA, approx total WAR of 27.7, not one year with an ERA+ below 153. Final five seasons: 34-32, 2 SV, 3.77 ERA, approx total WAR of 6.1, not one ERA+ above 123. He was sent to the bullpen permanently at age 31, and out of the game after his age 33 season. Sometimes poop happens. Baseball can be a reeeally cruel game.

This example is from a 63 season random debut league in OOTP16. At that time RL Clayton Kershaw had completed his age 26 season. He came in in the inaugural draft, debuting at age 26, so he was completely at the mercy of the player development system, and the player development gods were clearly not on his side.

wow, you aren't kidding. thanks.

I should post some pics of Syndergaard when i get home, scary drop off.

[IanIachimoe]

Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave

It is hardly unusual for a pitcher, no matter how dominant he was when he was younger, to lose his effectiveness once he hits his 30s. We can all make a nice long list of pitchers who, IRL, were great in their 20s only to fall off of a cliff after that. What this anecdote tells me is that OOTP models aging and the effects thereof very well.

I agree, I love it!

the salary is really weighing me down & he's useless. it's the price I (gladly) paid when he was dominating & to keep him in NY for what I hoped was his entire career... (NYM fan IRL).

just thought he might be a bit closer to kershaw at 32 than Felix (that was a GREAT comparison). wouldn't change anything, I'll take the rings, triple crowns, MVPS, etc.

[IanIachimoe]

thanks everyone for what I thought was probably a dumb question when I posted it.

cleared my head a bit.

was trying to avoid destroying another young pitcher if I could.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by IanIachimoe

wow, you aren't kidding. thanks.

I should post some pics of Syndergaard when i get home, scary drop off.

Forgot to mention I used 3-year recalc plus the player development system in this game.

[NoOne]

if it's a huge dropoff i'd bet on TCR, but no guarantees, regardless. aging can be sudden and gigantic too.

from what i understand most RL drops are large and sudden. believe they gave out that tidbit in a thread at some point on the subject. it's definitely modeled to be like that.

you do typically get minor slides any time after 27-28. i think handle success problem relates, for obvious reasons. personality will be an influence for sure too. whether luck or not, i've had a string of guys bomb after winning an MVP lately, lol.. not ratings but results the following year. crazy bad..

[andjbock]

Maybe you'll luck into a Charlie Morton type whose career doesn't take off until they turn 33.