Calculation of Movement rating - RA Dickey card

joehart · 01-10-2019, 05:00 AM

I was looking at the new RA Dickey card and noticed the really low Movement rating (48) which seems to put him at a huge disadvantage in the PT universe (given all the top contact/HR hitters).

I don't recall his ratings being so low when I played historical games in regular OOTP.

When I checked his 2012 real stats, he had the following stats
0.9HR/9 and 24 HR in 233 innings (or 1HR every 9.7 innings).
This seems like a pretty reasonable stat.

In comparison, Jameson Taillon from 2018 had a similar HR/9 rating:
0.9HR/9 and 20 HR in 191 innings (or 1 HR every 9.55 innings).
His movement rating is 55 (+7 vs Dickey).

Luis Severino from 2018 also has the same HR/9 and a movement
rating of 58 (19 HR in 191 innings or 1HR evert 10.05 innings).

I am sure there is some easy explanation that I must have missed somewhere. Hoping someone could provide some quick feedback.

I am still trying to fill my Knuckleballer team and survive in D362 but with Dickey's Cy Young year movement stats so low, he seems to be destined for lower levels.

Splitter24 · 01-10-2019, 07:37 AM

There were 26% more home runs hit in the 2018 AL (Severino's league) vs. the 2012 NL (Dickey's league). Severino gave up 10% more HR than Dickey, but in an environment where HR's were 26% more likely to occur. So it only makes sense that Severino's Movement is higher.

Taillon allows about 3% fewer home runs than Dickey in a league where HR's are 17% higher than Dickey's league. Same story here.

I'm not sure precisely how the Movement stat is calculated. But it makes complete sense that Severino's and Taillon Movement ratings should be roughly 15% better than Dickey's if you make adjustments for the league in which they were playing. And that's not even adjusting for ballpark factors. According to 2018 data, Citi Field was the toughest ballpark to homer in. PNC was a little easier at #25. Yankee Stadium came in at #6. So the ballpark data also points to Dickey playing in a park that helps him prevent HR's and to a slightly lesser extent for Taillon, while Severino plays in a homer friendly environment that makes his HR allowed more impressive.

jd200600 · 01-10-2019, 10:07 AM

Not sure that I would even try to use the new Dickey card! My experience says he will get hit hard at many levels.

joehart · 01-10-2019, 04:59 PM

Great reply.
I forgot that Perfect team was based on 2010 data.

National League average HR/team 150 in 2010.
National League average HR/team 155 in 2012 (Dickey year +3.3%).
American League average HR/team 195 in 2018 (Severino year +25.8%)
National League average HR/team 177 for 2018 (Taillon year +18%)

I assume there are also other adjustments (ball park, steroid area, …) to explain the differences for some other players.

Too bad for the RA Dickey card. I feel like this new January'19 card addition won't see much usage (gold rating/cost/movement/…).

He pitched 3 games in my Diamond league and was great in 2 starts (0 ER in 6-7 innings) but gave up 3HR in one of the starts.
I assume he will normalize around what we expect and end up as too dangerous to use in important games or simply outmatched against top talent.

I wish that movement rating was at least 10 pts higher (58).

chazzycat · 01-10-2019, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd200600

Not sure that I would even try to use the new Dickey card! My experience says he will get hit hard at many levels.

This makes me feel a lot better about selling him on the AH! The average winning bid values were all showing zero for me, so I had no idea what to set the price. Sold him for about 7k or so I think.

joehart · 01-12-2019, 11:32 PM

Tested RA Dickey in a Diamond league:

18 starts in half season with a 7-6 W/L record and bloated 4.62 ERA.
Averaged ~6.1 innings.

33% - 6 terrible starts with 5 or more ER.
55% - 10 starts with 3 or fewer ER.
33% - 7 games with zero or 1 ER.

How about his 22 HRs?
While he gave up a lot of HRs over the season (1.9/9) a lot came in irrelevant situations.
Almost half of his home runs came in close games or did limited damage (no runners on base)
2 HR in 3 ER game. Win.
1 HR in 1 ER game. Win.
1 HR in 1 ER game. Win.
2 HR in 4 ER game. Loss.
2 HR in 3 ER game. Loss.
2 HR in 3 ER game. Win.

I have him ranked as the #182nd pitcher in PT but with slightly better stats overall.
Since he joined the knuckleballer rotation, I am curious how another full Diamond season pans out (unless the team gets promoted).

acclaim99 · 01-12-2019, 11:41 PM

Is there a spot where it lists new cards that are released?

joehart · 01-13-2019, 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acclaim99

Is there a spot where it lists new cards that are released?

In the game, I don't believe there is an easy way or place to learn about newly added cards.

Usually, they are announced in the weekly forum messages by Kris Jardine:
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...archid=3225274

01-10-2019, 05:00 AM	#1
joehart All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 1,131	Calculation of Movement rating - RA Dickey card I was looking at the new RA Dickey card and noticed the really low Movement rating (48) which seems to put him at a huge disadvantage in the PT universe (given all the top contact/HR hitters). I don't recall his ratings being so low when I played historical games in regular OOTP. When I checked his 2012 real stats, he had the following stats 0.9HR/9 and 24 HR in 233 innings (or 1HR every 9.7 innings). This seems like a pretty reasonable stat. In comparison, Jameson Taillon from 2018 had a similar HR/9 rating: 0.9HR/9 and 20 HR in 191 innings (or 1 HR every 9.55 innings). His movement rating is 55 (+7 vs Dickey). Luis Severino from 2018 also has the same HR/9 and a movement rating of 58 (19 HR in 191 innings or 1HR evert 10.05 innings). I am sure there is some easy explanation that I must have missed somewhere. Hoping someone could provide some quick feedback. I am still trying to fill my Knuckleballer team and survive in D362 but with Dickey's Cy Young year movement stats so low, he seems to be destined for lower levels.

01-10-2019, 07:37 AM	#2
Splitter24 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Willsboro, NY Posts: 2,895	There were 26% more home runs hit in the 2018 AL (Severino's league) vs. the 2012 NL (Dickey's league). Severino gave up 10% more HR than Dickey, but in an environment where HR's were 26% more likely to occur. So it only makes sense that Severino's Movement is higher. Taillon allows about 3% fewer home runs than Dickey in a league where HR's are 17% higher than Dickey's league. Same story here. I'm not sure precisely how the Movement stat is calculated. But it makes complete sense that Severino's and Taillon Movement ratings should be roughly 15% better than Dickey's if you make adjustments for the league in which they were playing. And that's not even adjusting for ballpark factors. According to 2018 data, Citi Field was the toughest ballpark to homer in. PNC was a little easier at #25. Yankee Stadium came in at #6. So the ballpark data also points to Dickey playing in a park that helps him prevent HR's and to a slightly lesser extent for Taillon, while Severino plays in a homer friendly environment that makes his HR allowed more impressive. __________________ Currently Reading: The Sympathizer by Viet Thanh Nguyen "Well, the game is afoot. I’ll take anal bum cover for 7,000." - "Sean Connery" SNL Celebrity Jeopardy R.I.P. Tommy Holmes 1917-2008

01-10-2019, 10:07 AM	#3
jd200600 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 137	Not sure that I would even try to use the new Dickey card! My experience says he will get hit hard at many levels.

01-10-2019, 04:59 PM	#4
joehart All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 1,131	Great reply. I forgot that Perfect team was based on 2010 data. National League average HR/team 150 in 2010. National League average HR/team 155 in 2012 (Dickey year +3.3%). American League average HR/team 195 in 2018 (Severino year +25.8%) National League average HR/team 177 for 2018 (Taillon year +18%) I assume there are also other adjustments (ball park, steroid area, …) to explain the differences for some other players. Too bad for the RA Dickey card. I feel like this new January'19 card addition won't see much usage (gold rating/cost/movement/…). He pitched 3 games in my Diamond league and was great in 2 starts (0 ER in 6-7 innings) but gave up 3HR in one of the starts. I assume he will normalize around what we expect and end up as too dangerous to use in important games or simply outmatched against top talent. I wish that movement rating was at least 10 pts higher (58).

01-12-2019, 11:32 PM	#6
joehart All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 1,131	Tested RA Dickey in a Diamond league: 18 starts in half season with a 7-6 W/L record and bloated 4.62 ERA. Averaged ~6.1 innings. 33% - 6 terrible starts with 5 or more ER. 55% - 10 starts with 3 or fewer ER. 33% - 7 games with zero or 1 ER. How about his 22 HRs? While he gave up a lot of HRs over the season (1.9/9) a lot came in irrelevant situations. Almost half of his home runs came in close games or did limited damage (no runners on base) 2 HR in 3 ER game. Win. 1 HR in 1 ER game. Win. 1 HR in 1 ER game. Win. 2 HR in 4 ER game. Loss. 2 HR in 3 ER game. Loss. 2 HR in 3 ER game. Win. I have him ranked as the #182nd pitcher in PT but with slightly better stats overall. Since he joined the knuckleballer rotation, I am curious how another full Diamond season pans out (unless the team gets promoted). Last edited by joehart; 01-13-2019 at 12:34 AM.

01-12-2019, 11:41 PM	#7
acclaim99 Major Leagues Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: NJ Posts: 486	Is there a spot where it lists new cards that are released?