Free Agent Strategy (Poll of sorts)

Winnipeg59 · 11-29-2018, 05:08 PM

Assuming you let a player go to free agency or the player "elects" to go to free agency, and you would like to re-sign him if possible at a reasonable rate, what is your general strategy?

Please comment...

1) Wait him out as long as possible through the off-season, knowing the peril?
2) Make him your "best" offer as soon as free agency opens?
3) Make him a comparable offer to his current salary, just to keep him interested and to be updated should he get other interest?
4) Something else?

I'm just curious about the general strategy. I have waited (sometimes winning sometimes losing - depends on the financial capability of the team, budget available, etc.). And I have also lead with a very good offer (maybe a shade under "best", but still a substantial raise/term, etc.).

Haven't really tried the "keep him interested" approach. Have you? Generally success or not really at all?

NoOne · 11-29-2018, 06:37 PM

if his initial demand is too high, the absolute worst thing you can do is offer early. you can only undercut current demand by so much relative to personality and other relevant factors.

so, 'keeping him interested' in this way will only preclude you from a lower offer later. once you offer 'more' he won't be interested in less and you only upset them by withdrawing an offer. this falls under don't offer him early unless price is right, as above.

if you know your market, you should have a good idea of a reasonable price his demand will drop to. how risky you want to be about saving money is the only question and making sure you don't cross the line of how much you want to spend if a bidding war ensues, of course.

once in a while someone gets overpaid, and sometimes they get underpaid... i'm willing to forego the latter to prevent the previous. if they don't offer a good extension price, then i am looking for reasonable price in FA and won't push my luck. (extreme financial situation may force the opposite, but i don't let such things happen -- no forced decisions). the moment i think my bid will be accepted, i offer.

the AI offers are not bound by same rules as ours -- one example being that they can low-ball a bid on day one with no repercussions from that player being offended like us doing the same thing. so, if "3" other teams have offered and his demand keeps dropping tht tell you their bids are WAY below what he wants... your 'reasonable' bid is likely to win in that situation. (consider competition and their budget, be smart about it in every way the game gives us an opportunity relative to this context)

when someone outbids, don't just add $1 or the like. either beef it up or quit. adding some minimal amount is almost certainly going to fail. think about how IAFA work. you can up it 50-500k all day and all that will do is maximize what you spend when adding +1-1.5m to start may save you in long run by scaring bidders away. you really can increase the cost of a player by raising small..

i've raised knowing the ai would spend more and that i had already decided the price was too high, but that's a bit risky, lol. i'd do that to a human in an online league any opportunity too. push your competition's costs up

One Post Wonder · 11-30-2018, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

the AI offers are not bound by same rules as ours -- one example being that they can low-ball a bid on day one with no repercussions from that player being offended like us doing the same thing.

How do you know that? Seems really weird, considering that the AI would probably have a better idea of what the player would accept than we do.

OP, I agree about beefing up. You don't have to put your max acceptable amount but it needs to be significantly higher than the AI offer. There's no point in getting into bidding wars. Once one starts, knock the competition out of the contest early while they might still be pursuing other players. The player might also quickly accept before the AI teams counter.

As far as the options go, mine is between 'B' and 'C'. If I want a player enough to get him as a free agent, I come in high but hope he accepts something lower than my max offer.

Edit - I want to add that this is a hypothetical. When I actually play I never let people just walk as FA . If a player I don't want or can't sign has any value whatsoever I will get whatever I can for them in a trade.

AirmenSmith · 11-30-2018, 02:59 PM

I voted for "Wait him out" and other.

First if he made it too free agency, then I probably am more interested in the comp pick. The only time I will let a player go to Free agency is if teams have very little room for to sign him. Then I'll wait till feb to sign him.

But from my experience, I seem to get guys cheaper before free agency then once they enter it.

chazzycat · 11-30-2018, 03:44 PM

For me it depends on the asking price, and the market for that player's position.

If the price starts out reasonable, and there are few other attractive options available at that position, you should strike quickly and not risk losing him. If the price starts high, and there are lots of alternatives available, odds are much better you can wait and the price will come down. If not (high greed value?) then go for one of the alternatives.

One position I have noticed seems to usually have an over-supply is relief pitchers. So I'll wait more often than not for those.

The tough decisions are when the asking price starts out high and there are no good alternative options. It's hard to use a blanket rule for those situations, but probably the best answer is "you shouldn't have let that happen in the first place".

texasmame · 11-30-2018, 04:02 PM

Where's "trade him before he hits free agency?"

LegalEagle80 · 12-03-2018, 04:52 PM

I'll re-sign him before FA.

The problem with FA is that yes, the initial demand is usually way too high and you'll only enrage the player by making a reasonable offer. The 2nd problem is that they sometimes sign crazy deals regardless.

E.G., player X demands $40 million per season. He denied your offer of $22 before the end of the season. If you offer him $25, he'll get mad and break off all contact with you, so you decide to wait him out.

Two days later he signs with a small-market team for $22 million before you even offer him. That happens to me way too often.

NoOne · 12-03-2018, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by One Post Wonder

How do you know that? Seems really weird, considering that the AI would probably have a better idea of what the player would accept than we do.

OP, I agree about beefing up. You don't have to put your max acceptable amount but it needs to be significantly higher than the AI offer. There's no point in getting into bidding wars. Once one starts, knock the competition out of the contest early while they might still be pursuing other players. The player might also quickly accept before the AI teams counter.

As far as the options go, mine is between 'B' and 'C'. If I want a player enough to get him as a free agent, I come in high but hope he accepts something lower than my max offer.

Edit - I want to add that this is a hypothetical. When I actually play I never let people just walk as FA . If a player I don't want or can't sign has any value whatsoever I will get whatever I can for them in a trade.

during FA go "Act as"

go check out their offers and compare to the demands. you'll notice you could never offer what they offer.

this isn't criticism of the game. it wouldn't make sense to go through all the posturing -- behind the scense that we cannot see anyway -- and eventualyl get to the same exact point as we do now.

and, isn't that how it would work in RL? not for us, but the AI. you send out an offer that's realistic... the player initially thinks they can get more... but as the market and any collusion sets the price, they'll happily jump on that offer they previously felt offended by.

now, it makes sense that we can't do a similar thing in OotP. it would be easier than taking candy from a baby. their arms are so short and they are weak... they don't even struggle. basically it'd take all the intended strategy out of the equation.

i agree about never letting people walk. rarely do i take a comp pick, but only because i couldn't do better with a trade, or i just got a player that took a sh%^ on me due to TCR or age or whatever. maybe 1 in 100 years, lol. my players rarely get older than 29-30 (rarely out of contract). i avoid that obvious risk with age.

LegalEagle80 · 12-05-2018, 04:05 PM

I do like the fog of war and that I can't just outsmart every team to get whatever free agent I want.

I do wish there was more pomp and circumstance around courting some superstar free agents though. Right now there's a news story that lists all the best free agents that comes out on the first day of free agency, and then sometimes (but not always) there's a story that says "Team X is interested in Player Y."

Usually though, one day the player just signs with a team. I'd love it if there were daily/weekly news stories, quotes by the fake agent about team visits, speculation, etc. that gave you (as GM) an idea of what other teams are even in the running to sign someone.

Drstrangelove · 12-10-2018, 11:47 AM

If I have a player that I want that is about to go to FA, I extend him before FA opens. If I can't get the contract I want, I let him go. In most cases, if his demands were great, he'll sign elsewhere. However, he may also still be unsigned a lot later, in which case demands will sometimes have dropped drastically. At that point, I can often resign him for a lot lower. That is clearly risky and no one should expect a star to go unsigned that long.

Any offer however is bad to make if you intend to reduce it later. It seems as if the player considers it a continuation of the prior negotiations and will take it as a personal insult even if the offers are separated by 3 months apart and offers from ten other teams. I.e., if you want him for one year at $3 mill, and he wants $8 mill, don't offer $5 mill, expecting him to stay interested. Later, he might sign for $3 mill, but not with you.

jimmysthebestcop · 12-15-2018, 04:43 AM

I try to sign them long term before they pop off. Or if not greedy sign before they hit FA.

If not they will be traded or sometimes I might be after that comp pick.

NoOne · 12-15-2018, 06:46 PM

exorbitant demands almost always drop in FA... each league may vary. if they don't drop, it's a good thing too. your competition almost assuredly hurt themselves.

strangelove : i think there's a probationairy time related to offers. or it may reset at certain points even with less time needed... like offseason into FA. fairly sure about time, but not sure about transition from one section of calendar to next.

plus you can avoid the situation, altogether. i don't offer when i know it's a bad ask, but i do get to see the extension demand. that's enough to make a choice. you test waters and you know if it's too high to low-ball or not. that's when you decide to let them go to FA and re-try then after demand drops within ~2-3M or so of the most you'll pay. or the same amount you low-ball in any other context compared to demand. (same way of deciding on whether to off before FA)

i.e. much less than 2-3M, if not a 25-30M+ contract.

---

don't offer a contract you know will be denied. it only hinders you. don't start the process until you know you can commit or walk away unfrustrated because you did all that you could and avoided all pitfalls possible..

there's at least a few things in all the posts of this thread that actually hinder chances of success. (including anything i wrote, lol)

Ty Cobb · 12-15-2018, 08:59 PM

Free agency? WTF is that?

hcorry2001 · 12-20-2018, 09:27 AM

unless he's a cy young or mvp type player under 30, i usually don't go crazy in free agency. I won't go over 30 million on a player and i use the Yankees! If i do, it will be a short term contract no more than 4 years or not past the age of 32. I need that financial flexibility. I use FA to augment my roster if i'm just a piece or 2 away from a championship.

PSUColonel · 12-20-2018, 03:38 PM

Nice to see a good discussion about strategy here on the boards. I feel conversations such as this have been few and far between the last year or so.

Germaniac · 12-20-2018, 04:04 PM

""Best" (or very close to it) offer ASAP?"

This strategy worked best for me so far

Anthony5967 · 12-21-2018, 08:01 PM

It's weird because Trout hit FA in my game and wanted close to $50M a year. I decided against it and he signed with the expansion Memphis Sea Monkeys for $30M a year. Why take significantly less? Harper is the best player in my game and re-signed when it came time with Washington for like $18M a year.

View Poll Results: Your Free Agent Signing Strategy?
Wait him out through the off-season (knowing the peril)?	10	22.73%
"Best" (or very close to it) offer ASAP?	13	29.55%
A "keep him interested" (not low ball) offer just to maintain communication?	10	22.73%
Other?	12	27.27%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 44. You may not vote on this poll

11-29-2018, 05:08 PM	#1
Winnipeg59 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Canada Posts: 2,036	Free Agent Strategy (Poll of sorts) Assuming you let a player go to free agency or the player "elects" to go to free agency, and you would like to re-sign him if possible at a reasonable rate, what is your general strategy? Please comment... 1) Wait him out as long as possible through the off-season, knowing the peril? 2) Make him your "best" offer as soon as free agency opens? 3) Make him a comparable offer to his current salary, just to keep him interested and to be updated should he get other interest? 4) Something else? I'm just curious about the general strategy. I have waited (sometimes winning sometimes losing - depends on the financial capability of the team, budget available, etc.). And I have also lead with a very good offer (maybe a shade under "best", but still a substantial raise/term, etc.). Haven't really tried the "keep him interested" approach. Have you? Generally success or not really at all?

11-29-2018, 06:37 PM	#2
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	if his initial demand is too high, the absolute worst thing you can do is offer early. you can only undercut current demand by so much relative to personality and other relevant factors. so, 'keeping him interested' in this way will only preclude you from a lower offer later. once you offer 'more' he won't be interested in less and you only upset them by withdrawing an offer. this falls under don't offer him early unless price is right, as above. if you know your market, you should have a good idea of a reasonable price his demand will drop to. how risky you want to be about saving money is the only question and making sure you don't cross the line of how much you want to spend if a bidding war ensues, of course. once in a while someone gets overpaid, and sometimes they get underpaid... i'm willing to forego the latter to prevent the previous. if they don't offer a good extension price, then i am looking for reasonable price in FA and won't push my luck. (extreme financial situation may force the opposite, but i don't let such things happen -- no forced decisions). the moment i think my bid will be accepted, i offer. the AI offers are not bound by same rules as ours -- one example being that they can low-ball a bid on day one with no repercussions from that player being offended like us doing the same thing. so, if "3" other teams have offered and his demand keeps dropping tht tell you their bids are WAY below what he wants... your 'reasonable' bid is likely to win in that situation. (consider competition and their budget, be smart about it in every way the game gives us an opportunity relative to this context) when someone outbids, don't just add $1 or the like. either beef it up or quit. adding some minimal amount is almost certainly going to fail. think about how IAFA work. you can up it 50-500k all day and all that will do is maximize what you spend when adding +1-1.5m to start may save you in long run by scaring bidders away. you really can increase the cost of a player by raising small.. i've raised knowing the ai would spend more and that i had already decided the price was too high, but that's a bit risky, lol. i'd do that to a human in an online league any opportunity too. push your competition's costs up Last edited by NoOne; 11-29-2018 at 06:46 PM.

11-30-2018, 02:59 PM	#4
AirmenSmith Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Kalispell, MT Posts: 2,094	I voted for "Wait him out" and other. First if he made it too free agency, then I probably am more interested in the comp pick. The only time I will let a player go to Free agency is if teams have very little room for to sign him. Then I'll wait till feb to sign him. But from my experience, I seem to get guys cheaper before free agency then once they enter it. __________________ Come join me on my Twitch Channel for gaming at its excellence Twitch Link

11-30-2018, 04:02 PM	#6
texasmame All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Planet Texas Posts: 1,724	Where's "trade him before he hits free agency?" __________________ Managing and rebuilding the 98-loss TOKYO THUNDER. 62-19 at the ALL-STAR BREAK. 11 game lead in the NL West.

11-30-2018, 03:44 PM	#5
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	For me it depends on the asking price, and the market for that player's position. If the price starts out reasonable, and there are few other attractive options available at that position, you should strike quickly and not risk losing him. If the price starts high, and there are lots of alternatives available, odds are much better you can wait and the price will come down. If not (high greed value?) then go for one of the alternatives. One position I have noticed seems to usually have an over-supply is relief pitchers. So I'll wait more often than not for those. The tough decisions are when the asking price starts out high and there are no good alternative options. It's hard to use a blanket rule for those situations, but probably the best answer is "you shouldn't have let that happen in the first place".

12-03-2018, 04:52 PM	#7
LegalEagle80 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 113	I'll re-sign him before FA. The problem with FA is that yes, the initial demand is usually way too high and you'll only enrage the player by making a reasonable offer. The 2nd problem is that they sometimes sign crazy deals regardless. E.G., player X demands $40 million per season. He denied your offer of $22 before the end of the season. If you offer him $25, he'll get mad and break off all contact with you, so you decide to wait him out. Two days later he signs with a small-market team for $22 million before you even offer him. That happens to me way too often.

12-05-2018, 04:05 PM	#9
LegalEagle80 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 113	I do like the fog of war and that I can't just outsmart every team to get whatever free agent I want. I do wish there was more pomp and circumstance around courting some superstar free agents though. Right now there's a news story that lists all the best free agents that comes out on the first day of free agency, and then sometimes (but not always) there's a story that says "Team X is interested in Player Y." Usually though, one day the player just signs with a team. I'd love it if there were daily/weekly news stories, quotes by the fake agent about team visits, speculation, etc. that gave you (as GM) an idea of what other teams are even in the running to sign someone.

12-10-2018, 11:47 AM	#10
Drstrangelove Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 346	If I have a player that I want that is about to go to FA, I extend him before FA opens. If I can't get the contract I want, I let him go. In most cases, if his demands were great, he'll sign elsewhere. However, he may also still be unsigned a lot later, in which case demands will sometimes have dropped drastically. At that point, I can often resign him for a lot lower. That is clearly risky and no one should expect a star to go unsigned that long. Any offer however is bad to make if you intend to reduce it later. It seems as if the player considers it a continuation of the prior negotiations and will take it as a personal insult even if the offers are separated by 3 months apart and offers from ten other teams. I.e., if you want him for one year at $3 mill, and he wants $8 mill, don't offer $5 mill, expecting him to stay interested. Later, he might sign for $3 mill, but not with you. Last edited by Drstrangelove; 12-10-2018 at 11:57 AM.

12-15-2018, 04:43 AM	#11
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,727 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	I try to sign them long term before they pop off. Or if not greedy sign before they hit FA. If not they will be traded or sometimes I might be after that comp pick.

12-15-2018, 06:46 PM	#12
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	exorbitant demands almost always drop in FA... each league may vary. if they don't drop, it's a good thing too. your competition almost assuredly hurt themselves. strangelove : i think there's a probationairy time related to offers. or it may reset at certain points even with less time needed... like offseason into FA. fairly sure about time, but not sure about transition from one section of calendar to next. plus you can avoid the situation, altogether. i don't offer when i know it's a bad ask, but i do get to see the extension demand. that's enough to make a choice. you test waters and you know if it's too high to low-ball or not. that's when you decide to let them go to FA and re-try then after demand drops within ~2-3M or so of the most you'll pay. or the same amount you low-ball in any other context compared to demand. (same way of deciding on whether to off before FA) i.e. much less than 2-3M, if not a 25-30M+ contract. --- don't offer a contract you know will be denied. it only hinders you. don't start the process until you know you can commit or walk away unfrustrated because you did all that you could and avoided all pitfalls possible.. there's at least a few things in all the posts of this thread that actually hinder chances of success. (including anything i wrote, lol)

12-15-2018, 08:59 PM	#13
Ty Cobb Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Grayling, MI Posts: 4,624	Free agency? WTF is that? __________________ "You could not live with your own failure. Where did that bring you? Back to me." Thanos

12-20-2018, 09:27 AM	#14
hcorry2001 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Sep 2015 Location: New York City Posts: 80	unless he's a cy young or mvp type player under 30, i usually don't go crazy in free agency. I won't go over 30 million on a player and i use the Yankees! If i do, it will be a short term contract no more than 4 years or not past the age of 32. I need that financial flexibility. I use FA to augment my roster if i'm just a piece or 2 away from a championship. Last edited by hcorry2001; 12-20-2018 at 09:31 AM.

12-20-2018, 03:38 PM	#15
PSUColonel Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 13,143	Nice to see a good discussion about strategy here on the boards. I feel conversations such as this have been few and far between the last year or so.

12-20-2018, 04:04 PM	#16
Germaniac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Frankenthal, Germany Posts: 3,104	""Best" (or very close to it) offer ASAP?" This strategy worked best for me so far __________________ I'm going to have to meet my Maker some day. And if He asks me why I didn't let this boy play, and I say it's because he's black, that might not be a satisfactory answer. Happy Chandler, 1947

12-21-2018, 08:01 PM	#17
Anthony5967 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 96	It's weird because Trout hit FA in my game and wanted close to $50M a year. I decided against it and he signed with the expansion Memphis Sea Monkeys for $30M a year. Why take significantly less? Harper is the best player in my game and re-signed when it came time with Washington for like $18M a year.