Post Beta Pack Odds

Hambil · 11-13-2018, 07:58 PM

I've pulled two diamonds since the beta started and 3 golds. Can we expect the same generous pack odds to continue after the Beta?

'

genuvar · 11-13-2018, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hambil

I've pulled two diamonds since the beta started and 3 golds. Can we expect the same generous pack odds to continue after the Beta?

'

I wish I had your luck

Galeg · 11-13-2018, 08:10 PM

I've pulled 7 diamonds and roughly the same amount of golds out of 1k packs. Just a minute ago I opened 7 packs (paid for by auctioning a diamond) and pulled out 3 diamonds. The odds do seem far too good.

sansterre · 11-13-2018, 08:16 PM

The odds are posted and reasonably confirmed.

Each regular pack averages:

3.345 Commons
2 Bronze
0.5 Silvers
0.1 Golds
0.05 Diamonds
0.005 Perfects

Or put another way, an average of:

A Silver every two packs
A Gold every ten packs
A Diamond every twenty packs
A Perfect every two hundred packs

That's not to say you couldn't draw a diamond in back to back packs. In fact, you'd expect one person in 400 to do exactly that. Just as you'd expect one person in 400 to open 117 straight packs and not get a single diamond. Heck, Markus said that there are 6500 teams. Let's imagine that each team has opened fifty packs (ballpark). On average, over the 325k packs that have been opened, you'd expect there to be three that had a Bronze and five Golds. And anyone that opened such a pack would conclude that the odds were way too generous.

That's the thing about randomness. It's random.

Orcin · 11-13-2018, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hambil

Can we expect the same generous pack odds to continue after the Beta?

Yes.

zrog2000 · 11-13-2018, 09:33 PM

I bought 10 packs and didn't even get a single gold or higher or anyone to upgrade my roster.

Luck evens out in the end.

edm · 11-13-2018, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hambil

I've pulled two diamonds since the beta started and 3 golds. Can we expect the same generous pack odds to continue after the Beta?
'

that's pretty lucky. I've only pulled one lower level gold (81) since the beta started. the rest have been silvers and bronze.

my last pack a few minutes ago was all 60's and 50's.

that said, im 29-19, in 2nd place in my league so far.

mikezone13 · 11-13-2018, 11:34 PM

Varying degrees of luck here, have pulled a reasonable number of golds such as:

Patrick Corbin
JT Realmuto
Manny Machado
Dale Murphy
Hank Sauer (up for sale now)

Also pulled a diamond in Gerritt Cole which I sold to buy a bunch of packs that gave me Machado and few decent silver guys and a couple silvers from the auction house.

SayHey1 · 11-14-2018, 02:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galeg

I've pulled 7 diamonds and roughly the same amount of golds out of 1k packs. Just a minute ago I opened 7 packs (paid for by auctioning a diamond) and pulled out 3 diamonds. The odds do seem far too good.

You.....are very lucky.

Markus Heinsohn · 11-14-2018, 03:47 AM

The odds for bronze / silver / gold / perfect will remain the same. We are currently debating wether to lower the odds for diamonds from 1:100 to 1:150 or 1:200. If we change this, we'll let you know.

jedao · 11-14-2018, 05:14 AM

Please don't lower the odds. Add more cards instead

I realize they are pretty fair compared to other games but that makes opening packages rather fun. A 5% chance to pull a Diamond is pretty decent as you actually have a chance. Other games would put the diamonds at 1/100 and perfects at 1/1000. Then getting packs becomes a stupidly unreasonbable gamble.

Ile · 11-14-2018, 06:30 AM

I think diamond should be 1:200. As a F2P I feel masochistic saying so, but my reasoning is that I want Diamond to be REALLY special and perfect obviously super duper special.

It would also slightly nerf P2P players, since 50$ at 1:100 buys you twice as many diamond players compared to diamond at 1:200. Also, with diamonds more rare, a F2P lucky diamond pull makes it much more valuable since the market wont be as flooded with diamonds.

Imo this is a F2P buff in disguise. Any F2P player should embrace this change.

BigB · 11-14-2018, 08:23 AM

I would agree that diamond pulls are a little too frequent right now. 1:200 would probably be better for the longevity of this mode. Too many teams are sitting on 10+ diamonds after one season.

Granted many are whales, but sniping the AH I've seen plenty of diamonds go for 3-6k PP (starting pitchers not included). At that rate even F2P players will be sitting on a half dozen or more diamonds a month in.

Markus Heinsohn · 11-14-2018, 08:36 AM

OK, we have looked at the data and have decided to have Diamonds at 1:200 instead of the 1:100 now. They are too common currently. Quicksell prices will raise back to what they were too, Gold will be 1k PP, Diamond 4k PP and Perfect 20k PP.

nickwatic · 11-14-2018, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

OK, we have looked at the data and have decided to have Diamonds at 1:200 instead of the 1:100 now. They are too common currently. Quicksell prices will raise back to what they were too, Gold will be 1k PP, Diamond 4k PP and Perfect 20k PP.

So Diamond is being lowered from 5k to 4k?

Markus Heinsohn · 11-14-2018, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nickwatic

So Diamond is being lowered from 5k to 4k?

Diamonds were 1k when I posted this. They are 4k now. They were 5k at the start of the beta.

FlipCup · 11-14-2018, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

OK, we have looked at the data and have decided to have Diamonds at 1:200 instead of the 1:100 now. They are too common currently. Quicksell prices will raise back to what they were too, Gold will be 1k PP, Diamond 4k PP and Perfect 20k PP.

Have the odds already been changed? So if I were to pull a pack, would I have the new 1:200 odds of a Diamond?

GPBBall · 11-14-2018, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

OK, we have looked at the data and have decided to have Diamonds at 1:200 instead of the 1:100 now. They are too common currently. Quicksell prices will raise back to what they were too, Gold will be 1k PP, Diamond 4k PP and Perfect 20k PP.

Wouldn't it made sense to raise the diamond quick sell even higher because your decreasing the odds I would think 7.5k would be more realistic.

Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk

zrog2000 · 11-14-2018, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPBBall

Wouldn't it made sense to raise the diamond quick sell even higher because your decreasing the odds I would think 7.5k would be more realistic.

Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk

I'd think that all that would do is inflate the prices higher and possibly make it so they're not even offered on the AH. The bad diamonds aren't even worth 7.5K IMO.

11-13-2018, 07:58 PM	#1
Hambil Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 26	Post Beta Pack Odds I've pulled two diamonds since the beta started and 3 golds. Can we expect the same generous pack odds to continue after the Beta? '

11-13-2018, 08:16 PM	#4
sansterre Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 251	The odds are posted and reasonably confirmed. Each regular pack averages: 3.345 Commons 2 Bronze 0.5 Silvers 0.1 Golds 0.05 Diamonds 0.005 Perfects Or put another way, an average of: A Silver every two packs A Gold every ten packs A Diamond every twenty packs A Perfect every two hundred packs That's not to say you couldn't draw a diamond in back to back packs. In fact, you'd expect one person in 400 to do exactly that. Just as you'd expect one person in 400 to open 117 straight packs and not get a single diamond. Heck, Markus said that there are 6500 teams. Let's imagine that each team has opened fifty packs (ballpark). On average, over the 325k packs that have been opened, you'd expect there to be three that had a Bronze and five Golds. And anyone that opened such a pack would conclude that the odds were way too generous. That's the thing about randomness. It's random. Last edited by sansterre; 11-13-2018 at 08:32 PM.

11-13-2018, 11:34 PM	#8
mikezone13 All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 553	Varying degrees of luck here, have pulled a reasonable number of golds such as: Patrick Corbin JT Realmuto Manny Machado Dale Murphy Hank Sauer (up for sale now) Also pulled a diamond in Gerritt Cole which I sold to buy a bunch of packs that gave me Machado and few decent silver guys and a couple silvers from the auction house. __________________ AFBL New Jersey Athletics FOD Boston Shamrocks GLBL Milwaukee Eagles HRBL Toronto Stags PBF Commish only ABL (old SBC) Commish only

11-14-2018, 03:47 AM	#10
Markus Heinsohn Developer OOTP Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Germany Posts: 24,803	The odds for bronze / silver / gold / perfect will remain the same. We are currently debating wether to lower the odds for diamonds from 1:100 to 1:150 or 1:200. If we change this, we'll let you know. __________________ Buy Out of the Park Baseball 25 now! Download OOTP Go 25 for iOS Download OOTP Go 25 for Android

11-14-2018, 08:36 AM	#14
Markus Heinsohn Developer OOTP Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Germany Posts: 24,803	OK, we have looked at the data and have decided to have Diamonds at 1:200 instead of the 1:100 now. They are too common currently. Quicksell prices will raise back to what they were too, Gold will be 1k PP, Diamond 4k PP and Perfect 20k PP. __________________ Buy Out of the Park Baseball 25 now! Download OOTP Go 25 for iOS Download OOTP Go 25 for Android

11-13-2018, 08:10 PM	#3
Galeg Major Leagues Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 420	I've pulled 7 diamonds and roughly the same amount of golds out of 1k packs. Just a minute ago I opened 7 packs (paid for by auctioning a diamond) and pulled out 3 diamonds. The odds do seem far too good.

11-13-2018, 09:33 PM	#6
zrog2000 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,339	I bought 10 packs and didn't even get a single gold or higher or anyone to upgrade my roster. Luck evens out in the end.

11-14-2018, 05:14 AM	#11
jedao Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 6	Please don't lower the odds. Add more cards instead I realize they are pretty fair compared to other games but that makes opening packages rather fun. A 5% chance to pull a Diamond is pretty decent as you actually have a chance. Other games would put the diamonds at 1/100 and perfects at 1/1000. Then getting packs becomes a stupidly unreasonbable gamble.

11-14-2018, 06:30 AM	#12
Ile Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Stockholm, Sweden Posts: 139	I think diamond should be 1:200. As a F2P I feel masochistic saying so, but my reasoning is that I want Diamond to be REALLY special and perfect obviously super duper special. It would also slightly nerf P2P players, since 50$ at 1:100 buys you twice as many diamond players compared to diamond at 1:200. Also, with diamonds more rare, a F2P lucky diamond pull makes it much more valuable since the market wont be as flooded with diamonds. Imo this is a F2P buff in disguise. Any F2P player should embrace this change.

11-14-2018, 08:23 AM	#13
BigB Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 13	I would agree that diamond pulls are a little too frequent right now. 1:200 would probably be better for the longevity of this mode. Too many teams are sitting on 10+ diamonds after one season. Granted many are whales, but sniping the AH I've seen plenty of diamonds go for 3-6k PP (starting pitchers not included). At that rate even F2P players will be sitting on a half dozen or more diamonds a month in.