How Long Should I Keep A Regular Down?

sreem · 11-08-2018, 10:01 AM

Looking for some input, because I don't have a great grasp on the mechanics. In my league my starting catcher was off to a horrible start in April, by the time the 1/4 mark in the season hit, I had been platooning him with our back-up catcher. I recently sent him down to AAA to hopefully rediscover his swing.

He has never been a great hitter, but even this was well below his standard. He is currently making $2M and is arbitration eligible. My question is how long should I keep him at AAA? Should I expect results after 7 games? 14? Should I wait to recall him until he shows strong stats in the minors? I'm not crazy about spending $2m for him to find himself.

Wondering what others have done with players like this.

BIG17EASY · 11-08-2018, 10:29 AM

It's really a case-by-case basis. Since he's a catcher, if his defense is good, I would have let him work out his offensive issues in the big leagues.

If you have personality and morale turned on, I'd keep an eye on that as some players will see some negative effects of a demotion, which could impact his performance. Otherwise, I think it's just a matter of when you feel like he's playing better. Could be a week, could be a month, could be never.

sreem · 11-08-2018, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

It's really a case-by-case basis. Since he's a catcher, if his defense is good, I would have let him work out his offensive issues in the big leagues.

If you have personality and morale turned on, I'd keep an eye on that as some players will see some negative effects of a demotion, which could impact his performance. Otherwise, I think it's just a matter of when you feel like he's playing better. Could be a week, could be a month, could be never.

He's above average from a defensive perspective, and a team leader. It mad him upset when I sent him down, but his stat line through 42 regular season games (splitting time with the back up gave him 28 games with 26 starts) was:

.122/.210/.399
90 AB, 11 H, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 35 SO

I just couldn't let him work THAT out

BIG17EASY · 11-08-2018, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

He's above average from a defensive perspective, and a team leader. It mad him upset when I sent him down, but his stat line through 42 regular season games (splitting time with the back up gave him 28 games with 26 starts) was:

.122/.210/.399
90 AB, 11 H, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 35 SO

I just couldn't let him work THAT out

Yeah, that's bad. I probably would've just outright benched him or sent him down.

Orcin · 11-08-2018, 10:42 AM

I would give him a couple of weeks in AAA and bring him back for another look.

sreem · 11-08-2018, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Yeah, that's bad. I probably would've just outright benched him or sent him down.

Yeah. I would have benched him but he's making over $2m/year, and the back-up is league min. I need him to work it out, which means at bats. We can't afford to pay a guy $2m to ride the pine.

BIG17EASY · 11-08-2018, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

Yeah. I would have benched him but he's making over $2m/year, and the back-up is league min. I need him to work it out, which means at bats. We can't afford to pay a guy $2m to ride the pine.

Is your backup who is now starting significantly worse from a ratings perspective?

sreem · 11-08-2018, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Is your backup who is now starting significantly worse from a ratings perspective?

Depends on who you ask. According to OSA he is, but my scouting director thinks he's slightly better. I tend to favor actual stats more than ratings outside of the amateur draft however.

my back-up (now starter) stat line is:

29 games, 26 starts

.274/.343/.743

95 AB, 26 H, 6 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 11 BB, 22 SO

BIG17EASY · 11-08-2018, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

Depends on who you ask. According to OSA he is, but my scouting director thinks he's slightly better. I tend to favor actual stats more than ratings outside of the amateur draft however.

my back-up (now starter) stat line is:

29 games, 26 starts

.274/.343/.743

95 AB, 26 H, 6 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 11 BB, 22 SO

Sounds like this guy should be your starter for the long haul as long as his defense is OK. I'd shop the guy you sent down and see if you can get anything for him since you can't afford to sink $2M down a hole.

NoOne · 11-08-2018, 01:11 PM

sending someone to AAA won't change their production. if he's poorly rated, he will continues to ebb and flow around what you'd expect for a poor quality bat.

a bad start doesn't mean the entire year is bad either. out of hundreds if not thousands of high quality players i've seen have a bad start, very very few continue to underperform for such a long period of time -- an anti-lottery winner, if you will. or is it lottery anti-winner?

more times than not moving them around due to short-term performance is the wrong decision to make.

now, like others said, it sounds like the backup is better? with a catcher and the way ootp makes them, i'd go with the cheaper of any ~near equivalent choice. catchers simply don't have good bats... and what differentiates an average catcher bat from a good catcher bat is slimmer than other positions due to that fact.. smaller range all bunched up.. few excellent bats, if any, currently in the league.

anything near league average with ~average defense should make you content until you see something significantly better --- it may take 20-50 years, lol.

in 120years of ootp18 league, i saw what i consider 3-4 good offensive bats with acceptable defense for a catcher... may be improved frequency this year, may be the same. the rest you can literally pull a number out of a hat and it make make a 1-win difference, if that, from bottom to top of any rational options.

it's like fretting over batting a guy 3rd or 4th? it might be a difference of a handful of runs and nothing you should overthink or put in a lot of time on. when we understand the ramifications with more certainty, it'll become a clockwork decision based on break-even analysis...

ohiodevil · 11-08-2018, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

He's above average from a defensive perspective, and a team leader. It mad him upset when I sent him down, but his stat line through 42 regular season games (splitting time with the back up gave him 28 games with 26 starts) was:

.122/.210/.399
90 AB, 11 H, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 35 SO

I just couldn't let him work THAT out

You sure you aren't looking at Roberto Perez from this past season

I had the same issue, my starting catcher was having a horrible season, batting something like .130 through 50 games, so I made the switch and started my backup who was a defense first catcher and he ended up hitting around .210 for the next 40 games. I kept the old starter in the bigs and he came around in late July, ended up raising that horrible average to .187 for the season but had a very good Post Season (.375, 4 HR 11 RBI) and even hit a walk off double in game 3 of the World Series (we won it in 5 games).

Brad K · 11-08-2018, 07:05 PM

As far as I know there is no random seed that would cause slumps or hot streaks. If so, then regardless of stats a player's potential for the next game remains his ratings regardless of his stats.

So no action is indicated unless it is believed the stats reveal inaccurately high ratingsl. In that case the indicated action is giving up on the player, not sending him down to improve.

NoOne · 11-09-2018, 04:43 PM

yeah, it's just how the cookie crumbles.

good players are capable of incredibly horrible stretches at any time and for the same causes -- just winning th bad-luck lottery.

flip a coin enough times and you'll see things you don't expect.

slugga27 · 11-09-2018, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

sending someone to AAA won't change their production. if he's poorly rated, he will continues to ebb and flow around what you'd expect for a poor quality bat.

a bad start doesn't mean the entire year is bad either. out of hundreds if not thousands of high quality players i've seen have a bad start, very very few continue to underperform for such a long period of time -- an anti-lottery winner, if you will. or is it lottery anti-winner?

more times than not moving them around due to short-term performance is the wrong decision to make.

now, like others said, it sounds like the backup is better? with a catcher and the way ootp makes them, i'd go with the cheaper of any ~near equivalent choice. catchers simply don't have good bats... and what differentiates an average catcher bat from a good catcher bat is slimmer than other positions due to that fact.. smaller range all bunched up.. few excellent bats, if any, currently in the league.

anything near league average with ~average defense should make you content until you see something significantly better --- it may take 20-50 years, lol.

in 120years of ootp18 league, i saw what i consider 3-4 good offensive bats with acceptable defense for a catcher... may be improved frequency this year, may be the same. the rest you can literally pull a number out of a hat and it make make a 1-win difference, if that, from bottom to top of any rational options.

it's like fretting over batting a guy 3rd or 4th? it might be a difference of a handful of runs and nothing you should overthink or put in a lot of time on. when we understand the ramifications with more certainty, it'll become a clockwork decision based on break-even analysis...

I just can’t emphasize enough that your first paragraph is why I play stats-only. What fun is it to make a determination based on ratings? Obviously, a 20 on the 20-80 scale is going to be terrible and an 80 is going to be great, even if he isn’t at the present time.

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11-08-2018, 10:01 AM	#1
sreem All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 673	How Long Should I Keep A Regular Down? Looking for some input, because I don't have a great grasp on the mechanics. In my league my starting catcher was off to a horrible start in April, by the time the 1/4 mark in the season hit, I had been platooning him with our back-up catcher. I recently sent him down to AAA to hopefully rediscover his swing. He has never been a great hitter, but even this was well below his standard. He is currently making $2M and is arbitration eligible. My question is how long should I keep him at AAA? Should I expect results after 7 games? 14? Should I wait to recall him until he shows strong stats in the minors? I'm not crazy about spending $2m for him to find himself. Wondering what others have done with players like this. __________________ "What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger. Except for bears....."

11-08-2018, 10:29 AM	#2
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	It's really a case-by-case basis. Since he's a catcher, if his defense is good, I would have let him work out his offensive issues in the big leagues. If you have personality and morale turned on, I'd keep an eye on that as some players will see some negative effects of a demotion, which could impact his performance. Otherwise, I think it's just a matter of when you feel like he's playing better. Could be a week, could be a month, could be never.

11-08-2018, 10:42 AM	#5
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,881	I would give him a couple of weeks in AAA and bring him back for another look.

11-08-2018, 01:11 PM	#10
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	sending someone to AAA won't change their production. if he's poorly rated, he will continues to ebb and flow around what you'd expect for a poor quality bat. a bad start doesn't mean the entire year is bad either. out of hundreds if not thousands of high quality players i've seen have a bad start, very very few continue to underperform for such a long period of time -- an anti-lottery winner, if you will. or is it lottery anti-winner? more times than not moving them around due to short-term performance is the wrong decision to make. now, like others said, it sounds like the backup is better? with a catcher and the way ootp makes them, i'd go with the cheaper of any ~near equivalent choice. catchers simply don't have good bats... and what differentiates an average catcher bat from a good catcher bat is slimmer than other positions due to that fact.. smaller range all bunched up.. few excellent bats, if any, currently in the league. anything near league average with ~average defense should make you content until you see something significantly better --- it may take 20-50 years, lol. in 120years of ootp18 league, i saw what i consider 3-4 good offensive bats with acceptable defense for a catcher... may be improved frequency this year, may be the same. the rest you can literally pull a number out of a hat and it make make a 1-win difference, if that, from bottom to top of any rational options. it's like fretting over batting a guy 3rd or 4th? it might be a difference of a handful of runs and nothing you should overthink or put in a lot of time on. when we understand the ramifications with more certainty, it'll become a clockwork decision based on break-even analysis...

11-08-2018, 07:05 PM	#12
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	As far as I know there is no random seed that would cause slumps or hot streaks. If so, then regardless of stats a player's potential for the next game remains his ratings regardless of his stats. So no action is indicated unless it is believed the stats reveal inaccurately high ratingsl. In that case the indicated action is giving up on the player, not sending him down to improve.

11-09-2018, 04:43 PM	#13
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	yeah, it's just how the cookie crumbles. good players are capable of incredibly horrible stretches at any time and for the same causes -- just winning th bad-luck lottery. flip a coin enough times and you'll see things you don't expect.